Let's say a major anti-Qing rebellion that's not as crazy as the Taiping Rebellion erupts sometime in the 19th century. What kind of foreign support could it get?
What foreign support could an anti-Qing rebellion get in the 19th century?
- Thread starter Night Gaul
- Start date
Some variant of the Taiping rebellion which is led by say more moderate Catholics instead might gain some foreign support. Though this might end up with a Catholic Chinese dynasty on the throne which begins China's westernization. This might start to make the other Western powers nervous though.
American support would be interesting but difficult. The US was initially in favor of an open door policy that would have less explicit territorial concessions to western powers in favor of free trade throughout the country. This failed. By the time of the Boxer Rebellion the US was tied together with European powers as an exploitative foreign power and the attacks on Christians and Americans would have made any support politically unacceptable.
An earlier rebellion that is anti-Qing and not especially anti-foreigner might be able to get US support if it looks like the US could get free trade throughout China out of the deal.
An earlier rebellion that is anti-Qing and not especially anti-foreigner might be able to get US support if it looks like the US could get free trade throughout China out of the deal.
Secret foreign funding and training, combined with the adoption of guerilla warfare tactics, and infiltration in the Imperial forces, if not the court itself.
PS: Is my suggestion plausible enough?
PS: Is my suggestion plausible enough?
Not to mention I don't think the Ottomans had the means to project power that far.
I think we'd see more before the opium trade and subsequent wars. A divided china is a conquerable china. But after the opium wars, Europe has too much money floating around in the Qing empire to stomach the prospect
Probably it would make sense to start with a reason for such a support. In other words, what the foreign powers may expect from such a rebellion that would benefit them?
Most obvious benefits would be opening China for the foreign trade and territorial concessions. As far as the territorial concessions are involved the primary “beneficiaries” would be the Brits and Russians (as in OTL). List of the potential trade “beneficiaries” would be longer. But what could be a program of the rebellion that was going to make the rebels more attractive than the government from which all these concessions could be received as a reward for help or even simple neutrality (look at the territories which Russia got)? I’d say that a realistic scenario is something that leads to a complete disintegration of the central power and appearance of the numerous warlords. In that case tye foreign powers can support specific leaders (weapons and even money) in exchange for the trade concessions.
Form of help is obvious, it would be what the Taiping rebels wanted but pretty much did not get: weapons.
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What kind of support are we talking about here? "Support" in this context could mean anything from selling the rebels weapons to sending them military advisors to putting troops on the ground to fight alongside them.
What if it broke out during the build-up to the First Opium War but before the conflict actually began?
It depends where and when your anti-Qing rebellion occurs. As always, nobody sponsors rebellion just for 'anti-Qing' purposes; trade, colonial and legitimacy issues are of course involved. 'Anti-Qing' rebellion can also be a catch-all term for any sort of non-state-sanctioned behavior.
1800s-1830s:
Vietnam under the Tay Son sponsored pirates in order to divert Qing attentions, and to gain official legitimation from Beijing.
Kokand sponsored anti-Qing activities in what is now modern Xinjiang in order to both install their clients (Afaqis) as local rulers, and also to wring trade concessions (mainly supervision/tax rights over the China-Russia caravan trade) from the Qing.
The Sikhs, Nepal, Russia and maybe Burma might have sponsored anti-Qing resistance as a way to encroach on imperial borderlands, and also as a way of reinforcing/re-affirming trade privileges.
1830s-1860s:
Kokand continued to oppose Qing and helped create Yaqub Beg's independent Kashgar state. After it was established, Turkey granted YB legitimacy (giving him 'Amir' as a title) and also sent some arms.
A Russia that pursues a more adventurous policy vs the Qing in this period could support the Kashgar + Dungan revolts (and as a result seize key oases needed for further pressure vs China), as well as sponsor new revolts in Outer Mongolia + Manchuria.
I see a small possibility of French and (less so) UK, US support for the Taipings, had the missionary fact-finders sent by Shanghai to Nanjing been wildly enthusiastic about the Taipings' religious leanings + trade policies (and had the Taipings not threatened Shanghai).
Burma could have supported the Panthay Rebellion in Yunnan, as a way of gaining a trade/economic substitute for Lower Burma (lost to Britain in the 1850s)
Potential very minor frontier rebellions sponsored by Nepal, Bhutan etc to gain advantage in Tibet. Tibet itself probably wouldn't have revolted as Qing rule was already pretty nominal thruout this period.
1870s-1890s
During this seeming recovery in Qing fortunes, Western interest in sponsoring revolts within Qing would be quite minimal as the risk-reward (risk being complete + legitimate exclusion of their trade) would make such action not worth the trouble. One exception could be France which, during the Sino-Vietnamese War, might have been interested in supporting revolts in Taiwan (for the coaling base in Keelung) or a renewed Panthay Rebellion (to get into the China market from Vietnam).
Japan would have also been interested in stoking revolts in Taiwan as part of its colonial expansion, having attempted to intervene there in 1874.
1890s-1910s
Japan would be the primary sponsor of anti-Qing movements, taking advantage of its prestige as the natural leader of 'pan-Asianism', while also recognizing that a break-up of central government in China would greatly enhance its position in East Asia.
Russia as well, seeing the further acquisition of territory in Central Asia/Mongolia as a useful buffer + pressure point vs China.
UK would support anti-Qing movements in Tibet as a way of guaranteeing its influence over the region vs Russia (Younghusband Expedition 1903).
1800s-1830s:
Vietnam under the Tay Son sponsored pirates in order to divert Qing attentions, and to gain official legitimation from Beijing.
Kokand sponsored anti-Qing activities in what is now modern Xinjiang in order to both install their clients (Afaqis) as local rulers, and also to wring trade concessions (mainly supervision/tax rights over the China-Russia caravan trade) from the Qing.
The Sikhs, Nepal, Russia and maybe Burma might have sponsored anti-Qing resistance as a way to encroach on imperial borderlands, and also as a way of reinforcing/re-affirming trade privileges.
1830s-1860s:
Kokand continued to oppose Qing and helped create Yaqub Beg's independent Kashgar state. After it was established, Turkey granted YB legitimacy (giving him 'Amir' as a title) and also sent some arms.
A Russia that pursues a more adventurous policy vs the Qing in this period could support the Kashgar + Dungan revolts (and as a result seize key oases needed for further pressure vs China), as well as sponsor new revolts in Outer Mongolia + Manchuria.
I see a small possibility of French and (less so) UK, US support for the Taipings, had the missionary fact-finders sent by Shanghai to Nanjing been wildly enthusiastic about the Taipings' religious leanings + trade policies (and had the Taipings not threatened Shanghai).
Burma could have supported the Panthay Rebellion in Yunnan, as a way of gaining a trade/economic substitute for Lower Burma (lost to Britain in the 1850s)
Potential very minor frontier rebellions sponsored by Nepal, Bhutan etc to gain advantage in Tibet. Tibet itself probably wouldn't have revolted as Qing rule was already pretty nominal thruout this period.
1870s-1890s
During this seeming recovery in Qing fortunes, Western interest in sponsoring revolts within Qing would be quite minimal as the risk-reward (risk being complete + legitimate exclusion of their trade) would make such action not worth the trouble. One exception could be France which, during the Sino-Vietnamese War, might have been interested in supporting revolts in Taiwan (for the coaling base in Keelung) or a renewed Panthay Rebellion (to get into the China market from Vietnam).
Japan would have also been interested in stoking revolts in Taiwan as part of its colonial expansion, having attempted to intervene there in 1874.
1890s-1910s
Japan would be the primary sponsor of anti-Qing movements, taking advantage of its prestige as the natural leader of 'pan-Asianism', while also recognizing that a break-up of central government in China would greatly enhance its position in East Asia.
Russia as well, seeing the further acquisition of territory in Central Asia/Mongolia as a useful buffer + pressure point vs China.
UK would support anti-Qing movements in Tibet as a way of guaranteeing its influence over the region vs Russia (Younghusband Expedition 1903).
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One possibility might be if the Qing government loses virtually all authority outside the Beijing area. Anarchy isn't exactly conducive to trade, so I could see foreign powers backing some warlord who seems to be both willing to establish friendly relations with them and capable of restoring law and order in the majority (if not entirety) of China.
Osman Aga
Banned
Depends on the PoD. A PoD in 1792 can create circumstances half a century later (1842) to support anti-Qing Rebellion. A PoD in 1832 makes it harder. A PoD in 1876 means the Ottomans leaning on the UK and/or Russia.
But the Muslim Hui were usually loyal. The Qing must do something beyond repair that triggers a Hui rebellion (I know I know there was OTL rebellion). If you can get the Hui in, the Uighurs are easy to follow. The aid can be done through Central Asia for Kashghar/Urumqi.
The importance is the PoD. A PoD in 1792 gives options. A PoD in 1876 needs luck and will.
Osman Aga
Banned
If the Hui are pissed so bad and the PoD is prior to 1877, then yes, the Ottomans could indirectly aid the Hui. But depending on the PoD will decide how likely support is.
The longer it waits the more likely the Ottomans need to lean on other Great Powers.
The Hui rebelled in OTL. If their rebellion is at the same time of a rebellion of the Uighurs, the Qing could face some trouble. To guarantee it to succeed some foreign aid to China needs to be low. If the Qing Emperors think they lost control and flee to Manchuria for safety or whatever, it can turn into a nationwids chaos. A Hui Rebellion is unlikely to bring the Qing down but it can be a catalysis for bigger rebellions.
The Eight Trigrams rising might become something if somehow Europe was not at war with itself. However, if we can stretch the parameters of the OP, I have a different idea. What if the Lê Văn Khôi revolt resulted in the other, pro-West side winning, and the Q'ing intervened? Perhaps France, Britain, and/or a group of powers gets involved to protect the "independence" of Vietnam?