Yeah. Most Confederates who fled to Mexico were not committed at all to Max's cause. Republican success and Johnson's policies assured the prompt return of most, and here they'll probably try to flee Mexico. Heck, some common soldiers might come to believe that Lincoln would be more merciful than Juarez, since execution and punishment is usually reserved for either war criminals or leading rebels.
Again, I think the only one who is likely to be hunted down is Beauregard, especially if the Republicans are convinced/convince themselves that he's still a threat. Your first point is spot on, since some did decide to flee the Confederacy but could not bring themselves to surrender to the Union.
For what it's worth, IOTL Commodore Maury managed to get himself appointed as Max's commissioner for colonization, and Max did go as far as taking land from peasants to give it to the Confederates, but he didn't go as far as restoring slavery. Consequently, when they brought enslaved people with them they simply fled, the Mexican government unwilling to force them to work.
It'll all be better in the end but we may some rough patches first. In any case, I still hesitate to examine the issue deeply since that's just not my area.
I definitely missed your comments! Thank you for your kind support, your words mean a lot
It's certainly a hard truth to swallow that the rebels admitting they were defeated in no way constituted an admission that their cause was wrong. A harder fight begins now.
Many more planters will be compelled to leave the South, because for their class it's all downhill from here. And yes, the losses are dreadful, the kind that scar a generation and the national memory forever.
The majority of rebels are likely to be having a bad time. They have never worked a day in their lives after all, the bunch of enslavers. They are now in the situation
@Salurian described a long time ago:
I've been laying the foundation for that with the paramilitary Union League and the Federal National Guard and Constabulary as the ones who'll have to enforce Reconstruction against such terrorists. They are, as you note acutely, bound to be much weaker since IOTL groups like the Red Shirts or the Klan drew strength from community leaders, wealthy planters, and former Confederate leaders. Without them, they have lost a key source of morale, rhetoric, and leadership, which coupled with a stronger Black community and more decided Federal government should result in a better result. As for Early, yes, he impressed children at one point, but the main charge in his trial was war crimes for having burned some Northern towns in his raid. And, thank you! I appreciate your support