Zeno did had a son... And i dont mean Leo II... He had a son named Zeno too from his first wife (possibly named Arcadia) whom his father intended to name him his heir... However he died young a victim of his own viciousness (he was affected by the immorality of the court) as Suida and Malchus say... Had he survived and succeeded i dont think that he would be around for long with a behaviour like the one Malchus implied he had...
The Reign of Romulus Augustus
- Thread starter Romulus Augustus
- Start date
Zeno did had a son... And i dont mean Leo II... He had a son named Zeno too from his first wife (possibly named Arcadia) whom his father intended to name him his heir... However he died young a victim of his own viciousness (he was affected by the immorality of the court) as Suida and Malchus say... Had he survived and succeeded i dont think that he would be around for long with a behaviour like the one Malchus implied he had...
AD 491
The war should have ended with a Roman triumph in AD 491. Theodoric’s defeat at Mediolanum allowed the Western Empire to gain the momentum and surround the Ostrogoths at Ticinum. Without sufficient resources to weather a siege, starvation would most likely force the enemy to surrender in a year’s time. But when word reached Orestes that the Visigothic Kingdom had deployed an army to support Theodoric, the Romans were forced to abandon their assault on Ticinum and regroup at their strongholds in Mediolanum, Verona and Ravenna.
The duumvirate’s worst fear was realized. The fragility of their security made the Western Empire a target to its more hostile neighbors, and it wasn’t just the Visigoths. By the time they arrived in Ticinum, the Vandal fleet also began harassing the Italian coast, pillaging several poorly-guarded towns within the vicinity. The attack initially came as a surprise to Orestes. Ever since Gunthamund succeeded Huneric, the foreign relations between the Vandal Kingdom and the Western Empire had steadily improved. But with the Visigoths now actively aiding Theodoric, it seemed even more likely the West was fast approaching its end. As such, the Vandals decided that they would raid the Italian shore and plunder what they could before the Ostrogoths claimed all of Italy for themselves.
What remained of the Western Empire’s naval units was too insufficient to counter the resurgence of Vandal aggression. Aside from conducting routine exercises such as troop transports and coastal patrol duties, the Roman navy in the West was a broken shadow of its former self. At best they could only mitigate the damage utilize small squadrons to harass the enemy with hit-and-run attacks, but a direct confrontation with the Vandal warships was out of the question. The Eastern Empire could afford to maintain its own powerful fleet, but the old Roman navy that once dominated the whole of the Mediterranean Sea had long since vanished in the West.
The Vandals’ raiding activities sent a shockwave of fear and panic throughout all of Rome. The eternal city had been sacked twice in one century by barbarian invaders. Yet even though it had long since ceased functioning as the Imperial capital of a united Roman Empire, Rome was still a significant center of cultural, religious and historical importance to Romans in both halves of the Empire. New capitals could be made out of more defensible cities like Ravenna and Constantinople, but neither one could ever truly replace their predecessor.
Far from being just a former capital, Rome was a monument to Roman civilization; a testament to the Roman people’s remarkable achievements throughout the course of a millennium; and a symbol of the enduring glory of the once unified Roman Empire. The mere notion of being pillaged for a third time before the end of the century was too humiliating to consider.
All throughout the Diocese of Italia Suburbicaria (including Sicilia), various provisions were transported to Rome. The reserve army that was stationed in southern Italy deployed a detachment of its soldiers to guard the former capital. With stockpiled supplies, a reinforced garrison and the renovation of the Aurelian Walls, Rome was prepared to make a stand in the event of another blockade.
With the Visigoths augmenting his army, Theodoric took back the initiative and launched a massive counterattack on the all-but-panicked Western Empire. With Orestes rebuilding his forces in Verona, the Ostrogoths returned to Mediolanum for a third time and immediately blockaded it from the rest of the world. With no way to receive additional resources and no hope of reinforcements for months, Odoacer was trapped in one of the Empire’s most important strongholds. Much of the city’s supplies had been drained by the previous sieges and was in no condition to withstand a third trial that would result in the starvation of its population, including the garrison. If that happened then Mediolanum would fall, and so might the Empire.
The war should have ended with a Roman triumph in AD 491. Theodoric’s defeat at Mediolanum allowed the Western Empire to gain the momentum and surround the Ostrogoths at Ticinum. Without sufficient resources to weather a siege, starvation would most likely force the enemy to surrender in a year’s time. But when word reached Orestes that the Visigothic Kingdom had deployed an army to support Theodoric, the Romans were forced to abandon their assault on Ticinum and regroup at their strongholds in Mediolanum, Verona and Ravenna.
The duumvirate’s worst fear was realized. The fragility of their security made the Western Empire a target to its more hostile neighbors, and it wasn’t just the Visigoths. By the time they arrived in Ticinum, the Vandal fleet also began harassing the Italian coast, pillaging several poorly-guarded towns within the vicinity. The attack initially came as a surprise to Orestes. Ever since Gunthamund succeeded Huneric, the foreign relations between the Vandal Kingdom and the Western Empire had steadily improved. But with the Visigoths now actively aiding Theodoric, it seemed even more likely the West was fast approaching its end. As such, the Vandals decided that they would raid the Italian shore and plunder what they could before the Ostrogoths claimed all of Italy for themselves.
What remained of the Western Empire’s naval units was too insufficient to counter the resurgence of Vandal aggression. Aside from conducting routine exercises such as troop transports and coastal patrol duties, the Roman navy in the West was a broken shadow of its former self. At best they could only mitigate the damage utilize small squadrons to harass the enemy with hit-and-run attacks, but a direct confrontation with the Vandal warships was out of the question. The Eastern Empire could afford to maintain its own powerful fleet, but the old Roman navy that once dominated the whole of the Mediterranean Sea had long since vanished in the West.
The Vandals’ raiding activities sent a shockwave of fear and panic throughout all of Rome. The eternal city had been sacked twice in one century by barbarian invaders. Yet even though it had long since ceased functioning as the Imperial capital of a united Roman Empire, Rome was still a significant center of cultural, religious and historical importance to Romans in both halves of the Empire. New capitals could be made out of more defensible cities like Ravenna and Constantinople, but neither one could ever truly replace their predecessor.
Far from being just a former capital, Rome was a monument to Roman civilization; a testament to the Roman people’s remarkable achievements throughout the course of a millennium; and a symbol of the enduring glory of the once unified Roman Empire. The mere notion of being pillaged for a third time before the end of the century was too humiliating to consider.
All throughout the Diocese of Italia Suburbicaria (including Sicilia), various provisions were transported to Rome. The reserve army that was stationed in southern Italy deployed a detachment of its soldiers to guard the former capital. With stockpiled supplies, a reinforced garrison and the renovation of the Aurelian Walls, Rome was prepared to make a stand in the event of another blockade.
With the Visigoths augmenting his army, Theodoric took back the initiative and launched a massive counterattack on the all-but-panicked Western Empire. With Orestes rebuilding his forces in Verona, the Ostrogoths returned to Mediolanum for a third time and immediately blockaded it from the rest of the world. With no way to receive additional resources and no hope of reinforcements for months, Odoacer was trapped in one of the Empire’s most important strongholds. Much of the city’s supplies had been drained by the previous sieges and was in no condition to withstand a third trial that would result in the starvation of its population, including the garrison. If that happened then Mediolanum would fall, and so might the Empire.
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I've started to wonder if Justinian I could still come to power in TTL. I hadn't thought that far ahead, but it would be interesting to consider. I can see Anastasius still becoming emperor after Zeno's death, but as time goes on what are the chances that Justin I could still succeed to the throne, and then his nephew Justinian after him? If anyone has an opinion on this, I wouldn't mind hearing it.
For the WRE a defensive strategy at this point is really more like "buying more time." Fortunately for them, they haven't suffered any catastrophic defeats like Odoacer did in TOTL, but the Visigoths' interference makes a big difference, and of course I couldn't really how the Vandals would not be tempted to take advantage of the situation. While not going so far as to conquer southern Italy, they definitely have the naval power to get away with some raiding operations and a bit of plunder.
And I appreciate that.
Any advice in further developing TTL is always welcome.I've started to wonder if Justinian I could still come to power in TTL. I hadn't thought that far ahead, but it would be interesting to consider. I can see Anastasius still becoming emperor after Zeno's death, but as time goes on what are the chances that Justin I could still succeed to the throne, and then his nephew Justinian after him? If anyone has an opinion on this, I wouldn't mind hearing it.
As i said to you in a pm Anastasius has many chances to become Emperor after Zeno's death as he was Empress Ariadne's favourite courtier... However there are 2 events that may bar him from obtaining the purple.
1) Anastasius becomes Patriarch of Antioch in 488. In 488 following the death of Peter the Fuller Anastasius was the leading candidate to succeed him as Patriarch. However the Patriarch of Constantinople managed to cancel the appointment as he loathed Anastasius following a previous quarrel they had (Anastasius begun teaching theology in Hagia Sophia without permission of the Patriarch plus he was teaching monophysite theology). So if the Patriarch fails to cancel the appointment Anastasius is removed as Zeno's successor and Ariadne will have to look elsewhere for a successor.
2) In OTL Urbicius suggested to the assembly that was gathered to elect a new Emperor to throw the responsibility of election to Ariadne as it seemed from the very beggining that the assembly was deadlocked. If Urbicius doesnt make this suggestion or the assembly rejects it Anastasius's chances of becoming Emperor are reduced dramatically. However if the assembly continues to be deadlocked Anastasius might emerge as a compromise candidate given that he was a kind and generous character (authors mention that rarely if ever was angry for anything).
As for Justinian he became Emperor only because his uncle became Emperor too... In 518 Magister Officiorum Celer bribed Comes Excubitorum Justin to support the candidacy of Comes Domesticorum Theocritus for the purple. However Justin double-crossed Celer and used the bribe to buy the allegiance of the Scholae Palatinae (the corps that Celer commanded) and he became Emperor instead of Theocritus... See here for details https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showpost.php?p=5196275&postcount=144
There is a slight chance of Justinian becoming Emperor in 518 as after a brawl between Excubitores and Scholae Palatinae erupted it was diffused by young Justinian and the soldiers wanted to proclaim Justinian as Emperor. However Justinian declined the honour. Had he accepted the nomination and had the support of both army corpses the Senate and Celer would be compelled to accept him.
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There could be still the possibility for the brother of Zeno, Longinus, to rise to the throne; he could decide to lead the rebels in the Isauric war so getting rid of Ariadne and Anastasius; or maybe, the rebellion could have as outcome the secession of Egypt and Palestine, so we could see two Empires in the East... And maybe, the Egyptian secession could be an opportunity for the WRE, as the Vandals could be induced to leave Italy to raid Egypt in phase of reorganization or to send more troops in Africa to defend their kingdom from a still unknown foe...
Longinus was unpopular to Constantinople because of his Isaurian ancestry (which had caused troubles to Zeno too) so the Senate would have never accept him as Emperor. He was a prominent member of the Senate alright but i doubt if he was the leading candidate to succeed Zeno... It seems to me that Evagrius and Eustathius confused Longinus the brother of Zeno with Longinus the powerful Magister Officiorum in 491 in their writings...
Anyway... If Longinus doesnt obtain the purple by the time Zeno died then he is toasted... Whoever gets the throne wouldnt want him around in an effort to distance themselves with the previous regime and the Isaurians in general...
In OTL Anastasius immediately banished Longinus to Thebais in Egypt and confined him under heavy guard where he starved to death 8 years later for this reason exactly... He wanted to avoid havingg Longinus contact his Isaurian fellows and start a rebellion (he did try to raise an army but Anastasius forcibly tonsured him and sent him to Egypt). However a rebellion did happened but it was a lost cause from the beggining and Egypt was firmly in Anastasius grasp so Isaurians had no luck in taking Egypt. Anastasius wise handling of the finances made the trick and the 6-year rebellion didnt cause the Imperial Treasury to be drained causing more troubles...
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WRE looks screwed.
Grouchio
Agree its looking very bad at the moment, especially since them seemed on the verge of victory over the Ostrogoths.
Now if this was a bad novel you would have RA seizing the reins of power and then pulling off a move of military brilliance to smash the combined Gothic forces in a huge victory, removing the immediate threat and greatly boosting both the moral of the regime and his own prestige.
Unfortunately I can't really see much in the way of alternatives.
Its possible that one of their neighbours could attack the Visgoths, forcing them to pull back most/all of their forces. Even if this did happen however their lost their chance of destroying the Ostrogoths and have to overpower them again. Furthermore they would have to do it quickly before Mediolanum is forced to surrender.I suppose there is always the old stand-by of a sudden death prompting disorder in the Gothic forces. Or a plague hitting their army and forcing it to withdraw and regroup. It doesn't look like the western empire can survive without some outside assistance.
Steve
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AD 492
The Third Siege of Mediolanum ended in disaster for the Western Roman Empire. At first the Ostrogoths were prepared to starve the city’s inhabitants into submission. The city held out for the better half of the year, but with food resources nearly depleted the exhausted inhabitants began to riot. By then Theodoric was willing to let hunger win the battle for him, until he learned that Orestes was nearly ready to save Mediolanum with another Roman army. Even with his Visigothic allies, the barbarian king knew that the battle would be too close to call. Even if he could defeat the combined forces of Odoacer and Orestes, it most likely could not be achieved without catastrophic losses. A victory with an unsustainable level of casualties was a pyrrhic victory, and that would mean the end of his campaign. Faced with no alternative aside from retreating once more, the besiegers stormed the city walls in a fury, intent on finally breaking through the defense perimeter.
By then the desperate situation in Mediolanum was nearly at breaking point. Even the city’s garrison had begun to feel the effects of the scarcity of food. They tried to hold the invaders at bay by maintaining control of the walls, but all too soon the Ostrogoths and Visigoths overwhelmed the defenders and the city was helpless in the resulting onslaught. During the chaos Odoacer rallied most of the remaining soldiers and they proceeded to barricade themselves in the same palace where emperors Constantine the Great and Licinius issued the Edictum Mediolanense in AD 313. With the city lost and the situation hopeless, Odoacer felt compelled to negotiate a separate peace with the Ostrogoths.
The negotiations between Theodoric and Odoacer, conducted through the Archbishop of Mediolanum, ended with a pledge from the victor to spare the life of his adversary. Theodoric even went so far as to suggest that Odoacer could become his new magister militum under the new government. But as soon as the Ostrogoths gained entry to the palace, their king immediately broke his word and ordered his troops to leave no one alive. After a brief struggle, the fight ended with Odoacer’s death at the hand of Theodoric himself. What the former duumvir had not known was that his opponent had no intention of ever sparing his life. There were at least four individuals who could threaten his plans to forge an Ostrogothic Kingdom out of Italy, and now one of them was dead. The other three slated to die were Orestes, his son Romulus Augustus, and his grandson Olybrius. Any one of them could be a standard around which his enemies could gather. As far as Theodoric was concerned, by the end of the war there could be only one ruler left alive in Italy - himself.
The Third Siege of Mediolanum ended in disaster for the Western Roman Empire. At first the Ostrogoths were prepared to starve the city’s inhabitants into submission. The city held out for the better half of the year, but with food resources nearly depleted the exhausted inhabitants began to riot. By then Theodoric was willing to let hunger win the battle for him, until he learned that Orestes was nearly ready to save Mediolanum with another Roman army. Even with his Visigothic allies, the barbarian king knew that the battle would be too close to call. Even if he could defeat the combined forces of Odoacer and Orestes, it most likely could not be achieved without catastrophic losses. A victory with an unsustainable level of casualties was a pyrrhic victory, and that would mean the end of his campaign. Faced with no alternative aside from retreating once more, the besiegers stormed the city walls in a fury, intent on finally breaking through the defense perimeter.
By then the desperate situation in Mediolanum was nearly at breaking point. Even the city’s garrison had begun to feel the effects of the scarcity of food. They tried to hold the invaders at bay by maintaining control of the walls, but all too soon the Ostrogoths and Visigoths overwhelmed the defenders and the city was helpless in the resulting onslaught. During the chaos Odoacer rallied most of the remaining soldiers and they proceeded to barricade themselves in the same palace where emperors Constantine the Great and Licinius issued the Edictum Mediolanense in AD 313. With the city lost and the situation hopeless, Odoacer felt compelled to negotiate a separate peace with the Ostrogoths.
The negotiations between Theodoric and Odoacer, conducted through the Archbishop of Mediolanum, ended with a pledge from the victor to spare the life of his adversary. Theodoric even went so far as to suggest that Odoacer could become his new magister militum under the new government. But as soon as the Ostrogoths gained entry to the palace, their king immediately broke his word and ordered his troops to leave no one alive. After a brief struggle, the fight ended with Odoacer’s death at the hand of Theodoric himself. What the former duumvir had not known was that his opponent had no intention of ever sparing his life. There were at least four individuals who could threaten his plans to forge an Ostrogothic Kingdom out of Italy, and now one of them was dead. The other three slated to die were Orestes, his son Romulus Augustus, and his grandson Olybrius. Any one of them could be a standard around which his enemies could gather. As far as Theodoric was concerned, by the end of the war there could be only one ruler left alive in Italy - himself.
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The plot thickens. Things are looking grim
Soverihn
Grim but not as bad as I was fearing. [FONT="]Odoacer is dead and his forces lost. However a bloody storm like that will probably mean heavy loses for the attacker as well. Also the Goths are likely to be disordered by the chaos of battle and then what sounds like pretty extensive looting. It might even be possible that [/FONT][FONT="]Orestes relief force arrives to find a lot of their enemies scattered and disordered and able to inflict at least a partial check on them.
Also if news leaks out of [/FONT][FONT="][FONT="]Theodoric's betrayal it might cause anger and uncertainty. Most certainly there will be few people trusting any future offers of clemency. Also since the deal was negotated via the Archbishop who has just seen his city savagely stormed and looted there could be hell to pay politically and religiously. While if the archbishop has died by any way there could be an even bigger storm. If the empire's really lucky either this and/or the losses might mean a split between the two Gothic groups.
May be clutching at straws here but there are possibilities for recovery of the position and provided the Vandals aren't causing too many problems the empire isn't dead yet. [/FONT][/FONT][FONT="][FONT="][FONT="]Orestes has managed to organise another army and the invaders are still basically stuck in N Italy. While the Po valley may have a lot of the richest farmlands it sounds like the rest of the peninsula is still outside enemy reach.
Steve
[/FONT][/FONT][/FONT]
AD 493
The fall of Mediolanum, the loss of the army garrisoned behind the its walls, and the death of Odoacer all would have amounted to a decisive defeat for the Western Roman Empire, had the duumvirate committed the total strength of its military force in the north to a single location. After the Visigoths entered the fray, the duumvirs divided the northern army between themselves. Odoacer was to hold Mediolanum while Orestes stationed his troops in Verona. From there, he would augment his units with additional soldiers from the reserve army that was stationed in Italia Suburbicaria. With this increase in manpower, Orestes was confident that even the Ostrogoths and Visigoths would be overwhelmed by the two armies of the duumvirate.
Odoacer’s demise brought this plan to an abrupt end. For years the two members of the duumvirate despised one another. Outwardly, their alliance was crucial in fostering civil accord to a certain degree between the Roman and Germanic peoples of Italy. They also constantly plotted against each other, however. The politics of the western court were dominated by plots and intrigue, and the duumvirate was no exception. Ironically Odoacer’s death now left Orestes as the single most powerful man in the Western Empire, but the timing couldn’t have been worse.
Shortly after Orestes’s army regrouped at Placentia, the surviving duumvir had to reconsider his strategy for what could possibly be the defining moment in his life. The most obvious option would be to return to Ravenna. Unlike Mediolanum, the western capital had the advantage of being connected to the Adriatic Sea through two harbors. The surrounding marshlands that surrounded Ravenna acted as a natural defense grid, meaning that siege warfare would be more difficult to endure for the besiegers rather than the besieged. At best, the Ostrogoths could only blockade all land routes that led into the capital. As long as Ravenna retained its access to the sea, it could be continuously resupplied. Such an advantage meant that Ravenna could endure months, even a few years, of being surrounded by the enemy.
But Mediolanum showed that no city, no matter how well defended, could hold out indefinitely. Not even Ravenna could be saved if the Ostrogoths found a way to obstruct its access to the sea. Orestes took into account the resourcefulness of his opponent. He doubted that Theodoric would reach out to the Vandal navy for assistance. The Ostrogothic king wanted all of the Western Empire’s remaining territory for himself, which included Sicily, the island that the Vandals wished to reclaim for their kingdom. Despite this, it was conceivable that he would resort to building his own warships, the cost of which would be the time it took to arm and train a fleet. Once Ravenna was cut off from the outside world, Theodoric’s numerically superior army of Ostrogoths and Visigoths would almost certainly succeed in conquering the capital.
Faced with such terrible odds, Orestes made the ultimate decision to remain at Placentia where he would make his last stand. He also chose to divert a large portion of his army back to Ravenna in order to enhance its current garrison. It was a sacrifice that further diminished his hope for victory, but it was also a necessary one. Even at full strength, his army was still outnumbered by the enemy. By increasing the number of Ravenna’s defenders, the capital would have a better chance at repelling direct assaults on its walls. In choosing to remain at Placentia, he was buying more time for the Empire to make any last-minute preparations for the defense of their last stronghold in the north. In the event of Orestes’s death, command of the Empire’s last defense would fall to the emperor Romulus Augustus. Though it had taken longer than expected, Orestes always intended for his son to eventually rule on his own, absent the interference of the duumvirate. By now, it was an outcome that the Magister Militum welcomed. Romulus was in his early thirties and the strain of old age was beginning to affect Orestes.
There was one more option that Orestes had to consider. Ever since the beginning of the conflict, he had dispatched messengers to the neighboring kingdoms of the Western Empire with a general call for assistance against the Ostrogoths. The Romans’ margin of success without foreign military aid was thin in AD 489, and had just become even thinner after the defeat at Mediolanum. In terms of those closest to the Italian border, the most obvious options were the tribes who carved their own independent kingdoms out of Gaul: the Burgundians, the Alemanni, and the Franks; Orestes even reached out to the Visigoths before their eventual response in the form of an army that saved Theodoric from certain defeat. The rest couldn’t be bothered to help the West. Most of these kingdoms were still consumed either with consolidation of their current holdings, or even further territorial expansion. Regardless, Orestes had to try one more time because it seemed as though the West was on the verge of giving up.
With more troops being siphoned out of the reserve army for the defense of Ravenna, much of Italy was starting to believe that Theodoric had already won. If the center of the western government fell to conquest, the rest of the peninsula would not be able to offer an effective resistance against the Ostrogoths. Some towns and cities chose to remain loyal but the majority had virtually taken a stance of neutrality at this point. Without going so far as to openly switch sides, it seemed as though all of Italy was on stand-by, cautiously waiting for the final outcome of the war. Even the Senate of Rome was starting to consider the possibility of abandoning the Empire as a lost cause.
However, there was still one institution that Orestes had yet to approach. Throughout the course of the fighting, the Holy Catholic Church - the western half of the overall State Church of the Roman Empire - labored to help the people of Italy during this period of war. As a testament to its increasing power and prestige, one of the few things that Orestes and Odoacer agreed on was to stay out of the Church’s affairs. The scope of its influence, which had never been confined to the borders of the Roman Empire at its height, now far exceeded the reduced boundaries of Italy and Dalmatia. Granted, Catholicism and Arianism were locked in a bitter struggle for the conversion of the barbarians. Even still, a growing number within the population of Western Europe remained loyal to the Trinitarian doctrine as espoused in the Nicene Creed. Combined with the subject of Papal Primacy, the Roman Pope had in many ways become more important than either the western emperor and his magister militum in the eyes of catholic Romans and non-Romans alike. Far from viewing this as a threat to what remained of Imperial power, the Church was Orestes’s last hope to secure an alliance that could save the Western Empire from destruction. He only hoped that at least one of the barbarian monarchs had enough foresight to see the advantages of entering into a communion with the See of Rome.
Orestes was confident that the Pope would consider intervening on behalf of the Imperial government, given how much incentive there was to maintain the status quo between the western court and the Holy Church. The Papacy had every reason to start reaching out to the Germanic kings in Gaul. For instance, Romulus Augustus adhered to Catholicism, a stark contrast to the Arian beliefs of Theodoric. Even if the Ostrogoth had enough political acumen to avoid a direct confrontation with the Church, the Pope was hardly inclined to trade a traditional Roman emperor for a heretic king; a king who also happened to be an oath breaker, as he demonstrated when he betrayed his word to the Archbishop of Mediolanum by putting Odoacer to death.
An alliance with Rome was not without certain benefits for the barbarians either. The obvious political advantages notwithstanding, a Germanic sovereign who came to the rescue of the Western Empire on behalf of the Pope would go a long way in securing the allegiance of the catholic Christians in his territory, including the Roman aristocratic families that remained behind after Imperial authority vanished in Gaul. Nevertheless, the fact remained that it was desperate attempt on the West’s part as there was still a good chance that even the Pope’s call for assistance could be denied. But there was no other option left. Either the Church’s influence would succeed where the Empire’s failed, or Theodoric would dissolve the last remnant of the once whole Western Roman Empire.
The fall of Mediolanum, the loss of the army garrisoned behind the its walls, and the death of Odoacer all would have amounted to a decisive defeat for the Western Roman Empire, had the duumvirate committed the total strength of its military force in the north to a single location. After the Visigoths entered the fray, the duumvirs divided the northern army between themselves. Odoacer was to hold Mediolanum while Orestes stationed his troops in Verona. From there, he would augment his units with additional soldiers from the reserve army that was stationed in Italia Suburbicaria. With this increase in manpower, Orestes was confident that even the Ostrogoths and Visigoths would be overwhelmed by the two armies of the duumvirate.
Odoacer’s demise brought this plan to an abrupt end. For years the two members of the duumvirate despised one another. Outwardly, their alliance was crucial in fostering civil accord to a certain degree between the Roman and Germanic peoples of Italy. They also constantly plotted against each other, however. The politics of the western court were dominated by plots and intrigue, and the duumvirate was no exception. Ironically Odoacer’s death now left Orestes as the single most powerful man in the Western Empire, but the timing couldn’t have been worse.
Shortly after Orestes’s army regrouped at Placentia, the surviving duumvir had to reconsider his strategy for what could possibly be the defining moment in his life. The most obvious option would be to return to Ravenna. Unlike Mediolanum, the western capital had the advantage of being connected to the Adriatic Sea through two harbors. The surrounding marshlands that surrounded Ravenna acted as a natural defense grid, meaning that siege warfare would be more difficult to endure for the besiegers rather than the besieged. At best, the Ostrogoths could only blockade all land routes that led into the capital. As long as Ravenna retained its access to the sea, it could be continuously resupplied. Such an advantage meant that Ravenna could endure months, even a few years, of being surrounded by the enemy.
But Mediolanum showed that no city, no matter how well defended, could hold out indefinitely. Not even Ravenna could be saved if the Ostrogoths found a way to obstruct its access to the sea. Orestes took into account the resourcefulness of his opponent. He doubted that Theodoric would reach out to the Vandal navy for assistance. The Ostrogothic king wanted all of the Western Empire’s remaining territory for himself, which included Sicily, the island that the Vandals wished to reclaim for their kingdom. Despite this, it was conceivable that he would resort to building his own warships, the cost of which would be the time it took to arm and train a fleet. Once Ravenna was cut off from the outside world, Theodoric’s numerically superior army of Ostrogoths and Visigoths would almost certainly succeed in conquering the capital.
Faced with such terrible odds, Orestes made the ultimate decision to remain at Placentia where he would make his last stand. He also chose to divert a large portion of his army back to Ravenna in order to enhance its current garrison. It was a sacrifice that further diminished his hope for victory, but it was also a necessary one. Even at full strength, his army was still outnumbered by the enemy. By increasing the number of Ravenna’s defenders, the capital would have a better chance at repelling direct assaults on its walls. In choosing to remain at Placentia, he was buying more time for the Empire to make any last-minute preparations for the defense of their last stronghold in the north. In the event of Orestes’s death, command of the Empire’s last defense would fall to the emperor Romulus Augustus. Though it had taken longer than expected, Orestes always intended for his son to eventually rule on his own, absent the interference of the duumvirate. By now, it was an outcome that the Magister Militum welcomed. Romulus was in his early thirties and the strain of old age was beginning to affect Orestes.
There was one more option that Orestes had to consider. Ever since the beginning of the conflict, he had dispatched messengers to the neighboring kingdoms of the Western Empire with a general call for assistance against the Ostrogoths. The Romans’ margin of success without foreign military aid was thin in AD 489, and had just become even thinner after the defeat at Mediolanum. In terms of those closest to the Italian border, the most obvious options were the tribes who carved their own independent kingdoms out of Gaul: the Burgundians, the Alemanni, and the Franks; Orestes even reached out to the Visigoths before their eventual response in the form of an army that saved Theodoric from certain defeat. The rest couldn’t be bothered to help the West. Most of these kingdoms were still consumed either with consolidation of their current holdings, or even further territorial expansion. Regardless, Orestes had to try one more time because it seemed as though the West was on the verge of giving up.
With more troops being siphoned out of the reserve army for the defense of Ravenna, much of Italy was starting to believe that Theodoric had already won. If the center of the western government fell to conquest, the rest of the peninsula would not be able to offer an effective resistance against the Ostrogoths. Some towns and cities chose to remain loyal but the majority had virtually taken a stance of neutrality at this point. Without going so far as to openly switch sides, it seemed as though all of Italy was on stand-by, cautiously waiting for the final outcome of the war. Even the Senate of Rome was starting to consider the possibility of abandoning the Empire as a lost cause.
However, there was still one institution that Orestes had yet to approach. Throughout the course of the fighting, the Holy Catholic Church - the western half of the overall State Church of the Roman Empire - labored to help the people of Italy during this period of war. As a testament to its increasing power and prestige, one of the few things that Orestes and Odoacer agreed on was to stay out of the Church’s affairs. The scope of its influence, which had never been confined to the borders of the Roman Empire at its height, now far exceeded the reduced boundaries of Italy and Dalmatia. Granted, Catholicism and Arianism were locked in a bitter struggle for the conversion of the barbarians. Even still, a growing number within the population of Western Europe remained loyal to the Trinitarian doctrine as espoused in the Nicene Creed. Combined with the subject of Papal Primacy, the Roman Pope had in many ways become more important than either the western emperor and his magister militum in the eyes of catholic Romans and non-Romans alike. Far from viewing this as a threat to what remained of Imperial power, the Church was Orestes’s last hope to secure an alliance that could save the Western Empire from destruction. He only hoped that at least one of the barbarian monarchs had enough foresight to see the advantages of entering into a communion with the See of Rome.
Orestes was confident that the Pope would consider intervening on behalf of the Imperial government, given how much incentive there was to maintain the status quo between the western court and the Holy Church. The Papacy had every reason to start reaching out to the Germanic kings in Gaul. For instance, Romulus Augustus adhered to Catholicism, a stark contrast to the Arian beliefs of Theodoric. Even if the Ostrogoth had enough political acumen to avoid a direct confrontation with the Church, the Pope was hardly inclined to trade a traditional Roman emperor for a heretic king; a king who also happened to be an oath breaker, as he demonstrated when he betrayed his word to the Archbishop of Mediolanum by putting Odoacer to death.
An alliance with Rome was not without certain benefits for the barbarians either. The obvious political advantages notwithstanding, a Germanic sovereign who came to the rescue of the Western Empire on behalf of the Pope would go a long way in securing the allegiance of the catholic Christians in his territory, including the Roman aristocratic families that remained behind after Imperial authority vanished in Gaul. Nevertheless, the fact remained that it was desperate attempt on the West’s part as there was still a good chance that even the Pope’s call for assistance could be denied. But there was no other option left. Either the Church’s influence would succeed where the Empire’s failed, or Theodoric would dissolve the last remnant of the once whole Western Roman Empire.
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