That's my impression as well. For now though, I think the West would be focused on repairing its domestic security, which is why certain external events are still happening mostly the way they did IOTL. Ex: Clovis conquers Soissons; Zeno still directs the Ostrogoths westward in order to get them out of the East. IMHO, those are some of the things I could still see happening in this alternate timeline.
The Reign of Romulus Augustus
- Thread starter Romulus Augustus
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That's my impression as well. For now though, I think the West would be focused on repairing its domestic security, which is why certain external events are still happening mostly the way they did IOTL. Ex: Clovis conquers Soissons; Zeno still directs the Ostrogoths westward in order to get them out of the East. IMHO, those are some of the things I could still see happening in this alternate timeline.
Excuse me for not buying that. 5 years worth of DIRECT butterflies (starting from the moment Zeno heard Nepos had been killed) would have produced (and indeed did produce) different actions by those in the eastern court. to claim that Strabo set up camp near Phillipi on the exact same spot, on the same day as OTL in 481, and that the same horse became unruly, and again as in OTL he was in the vicinity of the animal, and as in OTL, decided to personally try to calm him, leading to him falling unto the same spear placed in front of the same tent is just lazy writing.
This is like saying that, had the Ottoman sultan died in 1915, King Alexander of Greece would still have died of a monkey bite in 1920.
I ll have to agree... With so many butterflies things should have taken a very different path...
[FONT="]I thought that I had made myself clear before, but clearly you need a simpler explanation. Even if the WRE makes it past AD 476, the PODs that started this timeline will not likely alter the history of the Ostrogoths' rebellion against Zeno, nor the circumstances surrounding Strabo's death. The eastern court’s negotiations with Orestes and its conflict with Strabo are two entirely separate issues unrelated to each other. So excuse me if I don’t accept that the WRE in AD 481 would have somehow changed Strabo's fate. That’s about as realistic as your suggestion that the PODs for this timeline could have resulted in Clovis’s “convenient” death before the Battle of Soissons. Somehow I doubt that the life or death of either Clovis or Strabo depended on whether the WRE still existed at this point.
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I agree that it is possible (just about anything is possible in the fiction of alternate history). How likely or realistic is another matter. Things are taking a different path in the sense that the Western Empire still exists, but I don't think that the PODs (AD 475/476) in this timeline go so far as to alter the course of the Ostrogoths' rebellion in the ERE, nor Strabo's death. What I mean to say is how does replacing Odoacer's kingdom with a still existent (yet extremely weakened) WRE change what happens to Strabo or the Ostrogoths while they were still in the East?
Well to be fiar, just because it's a one in a million chance, doesn't mean if you roll the dice a second time, it's impossible for it to happen. Though I do have to agree with you...
If Procopius and Marcian do not revolt against Zeno in 479 then Theoderic Strabo wouldnt have been removed from the office of Magister Militum Praesentalis (in OTL he was removed because he gave sanctuary to Procopius and Marcian) so Strabo wouldnt held a grudge against Zeno, wouldnt ally with Theodoric Amal against Zeno and there wouldnt be any need for Zeno to turn them against each other... That way Strabo's death is butterflied away...
Deleted member 67076
Couldn't find anything more than coinsDefinitely following with a burning passion.
I also want to draw Orestes, Zeno, Odoacer, Theodoric and Romulus Augustus. What do they look like?
Romulus
Odoacer
Definitely following with a burning passion.
I also want to draw Orestes, Zeno, Odoacer, Theodoric and Romulus Augustus. What do they look like?
As for Zeno, Romulus and Odovacer you can take a look in the coins struck during their reigns to get an idea... As for the others you can look in bibliography if someone has a description of them or else you can only guess...
This is quite a fun TL: nice to see a new writer who clearly knows what he's doing and has done his homework! That said, would it be possible to format a little better? The bigger and smaller fonts annoy me mildly for being inconsistent. 
I strongly agree with what Magnum says about butterflies, by the way. Once one change is made, the ripples can't be contained. Think of it as the old "six degrees of separation" argument. It's acceptable maybe to have more distant regions in the pre-modern world taking two or three years to reach them, I think, but you'd definitely be seeing butterflies across the ERE and the former WRE by 480 at the latest in this scenario.
I strongly agree with what Magnum says about butterflies, by the way. Once one change is made, the ripples can't be contained. Think of it as the old "six degrees of separation" argument. It's acceptable maybe to have more distant regions in the pre-modern world taking two or three years to reach them, I think, but you'd definitely be seeing butterflies across the ERE and the former WRE by 480 at the latest in this scenario.
Well, the fall of Noricum was an unexpected move, but the prize in case of victory could be great (reconquest of the area between the Alps and the Danube). If the WRE retrieves Noricum, keeping it will become the main focus for Ravenna.
Anyway, Italy could be relatively safe only with the conquest of Viennese, Helvetia, Noricum, and Sardinia with Corsica. So, the recreation of a strong navy is imperative to face Visigoths and Byzantines (and later probably Arabs... I wonder if WRE Africa could save Visigoth Spain later, but I'm going too far for the moment)
Another issue I'm curious to see it is about the status of Rome and his bishop, and the relationship with the Imperial power... After all, in theory even after the two sacks the Eternal city should be still the first city of Italy. If the peninsula was less ravaged than OTL, and with the control of the Sicilian grain, the demographics of Rome should remain stable, and if for example Orestes ordered the reconstruction of the destroyed acqueducts the city should had fresh water as well, with less risks of epidemies.
Anyway, Italy could be relatively safe only with the conquest of Viennese, Helvetia, Noricum, and Sardinia with Corsica. So, the recreation of a strong navy is imperative to face Visigoths and Byzantines (and later probably Arabs... I wonder if WRE Africa could save Visigoth Spain later, but I'm going too far for the moment)
Another issue I'm curious to see it is about the status of Rome and his bishop, and the relationship with the Imperial power... After all, in theory even after the two sacks the Eternal city should be still the first city of Italy. If the peninsula was less ravaged than OTL, and with the control of the Sicilian grain, the demographics of Rome should remain stable, and if for example Orestes ordered the reconstruction of the destroyed acqueducts the city should had fresh water as well, with less risks of epidemies.
Romulus Augustus
Interesting thread and looking forward to seeing how things develop. Presuming that the western empire is going to survive for at least a while longer and possibly even prosper.
On the Strabo issue I would agree its extremely unlikely he would die the same way, especially given how unlikely it was. However its possible that he has died since and the changes are such that Zeno is still seeking to dispose of the Ostrogoths by sending them westwards. [Although whether he would have the same excuse without the naked take over of Italy by Odovacer?]
Steve
Interesting thread and looking forward to seeing how things develop. Presuming that the western empire is going to survive for at least a while longer and possibly even prosper.
On the Strabo issue I would agree its extremely unlikely he would die the same way, especially given how unlikely it was. However its possible that he has died since and the changes are such that Zeno is still seeking to dispose of the Ostrogoths by sending them westwards. [Although whether he would have the same excuse without the naked take over of Italy by Odovacer?]
Steve
The ripples created by the first two alternate events in this timeline are strongest in Italy. Instead of the establishment of Odoacer’s kingdom, the WRE remains in existence. So for instance if Nepos had died and the foederati stayed loyal, then there would have been no need for the West to reclaim Dalmatia since most likely that area would have remained under its control for the time being. But Strabo’s actions in the ERE, including the circumstances surrounding his death, have little, if anything, to do with Italy, regardless of whether Odoacer or Orestes rules in that area. What first set Strabo against the ERE in the original timeline was the murder of Aspar, an event that took place before TTL’s PODs. When Zeno succeeds to the throne, Strabo again rebels against the East’s authority and becomes instrumental in the rise of Basiliscus, which also takes place before the PODs do. My point is that if all of that history happens before this timeline takes a separate path from the OTL, then nothing serious enough is going to alter Strabo’s life up to the time of his death. What changes for him is that in this world, there is still another emperor ruling in Ravenna. If the WRE stays out of eastern politics, which it did in TTL after obtaining recognition from the eastern court, then the chain of events relevant to the conflict between the Ostrogoths and ERE will likely remain mostly similar to the OTL events that led to Strabo’s death (again the significant difference being that the WRE still exists, but is confined to Italy and possesses very little influence on internal disputes in the ERE).
I hope this makes sense to you guys. But if someone can be a little more specific and explain how Odoacer’s averted takeover of Italy changes the life of Theodoric Strabo, then by all means feel free to give a realistic explanation on how the WRE interferes with the conflict between the Ostrogoths and the ERE, a POD so significant that it butterflies away Strabo’s awkward death. But if this really bothers you guys, I can always change it by finding a way to have him killed earlier, and at this point he can't stay alive if I want Theodoric the Great to still invade Italy. I don't know enough about who Strabo was as a person, but at the time he seemed intent on plaguing the ERE and I don't know if Zeno could have persuaded him to invade Italy as he did with Theodoric the Amal.
As for the font issue, I apologize about that. On this laptop at least, it all looks like the font that I chose (Times New Roman, 3). But on other computers, the font and font sizes look different as Basileus Giorgios pointed out.
I hope this makes sense to you guys. But if someone can be a little more specific and explain how Odoacer’s averted takeover of Italy changes the life of Theodoric Strabo, then by all means feel free to give a realistic explanation on how the WRE interferes with the conflict between the Ostrogoths and the ERE, a POD so significant that it butterflies away Strabo’s awkward death. But if this really bothers you guys, I can always change it by finding a way to have him killed earlier, and at this point he can't stay alive if I want Theodoric the Great to still invade Italy. I don't know enough about who Strabo was as a person, but at the time he seemed intent on plaguing the ERE and I don't know if Zeno could have persuaded him to invade Italy as he did with Theodoric the Amal.
As for the font issue, I apologize about that. On this laptop at least, it all looks like the font that I chose (Times New Roman, 3). But on other computers, the font and font sizes look different as Basileus Giorgios pointed out.
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At this stage, it doesn't seem likely that the capital would be moved back to Rome in the near future. Ravenna, with its access to the sea and surrounded by rough marsh lands, is a much more defensible city. So with emperors away in either Ravenna or Constantinople, that leaves the Pope as the most significant resident in Rome itself. Perhaps the foreseeable future of the city could be better under a prolonged WRE, but I still think that the Papacy will wield tremendous influence on Rome in the absence of Roman emperors. Rome got on well enough in the OTL under Odoacer's kingdom, and then Theodoric's as well. I'd say the real devastation that brought so much more ruin to the city was ironically more or less thanks to Justinian's invasion of Italy by the sixth century AD.
In order to preserve the likelihood that the Ostrogoths will still follow Theodoric the Great into Italy, then Theodoric Strabo can't still be alive by AD 489. His prolonged lifespan could keep the Ostrogoths in the ERE, which prevents me from exploring how the WRE could have responded to an Ostrogothic invasion.
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The two (prolonged lifespan and invasion) aren't necessarily mutually incompatible. Zeno can just as easily only send Theoderic the Amal's branch of the Ostrogoths west, while keeping Strabo in the Balkans, hoping to keep him in check by a combination of offices and honors, bribes and gold, the odd attack by the Bulgars or whoever and a slight increase in non-gothic mercenaries and/or levied Roman troops loyal to Zeno. This way, you can achieve your goal of having Ostrogoths invading Italy without the contest being one-sided (not that Odoacer didn't put up a fight OTL).
However, if you really really really want ALL of the Ostrogoths sent to Italy, find another way for Strabo to die - plague, killed in battle, assasinated by T. the Amal or whatever. Or you can, for a different but still quite the same story, have T. the Amal the one who kicks the bucket and T. Strabo (who can even begin calling himself 'the Great") lead the Goths west.
Just don't roll the same one-in-a-million dice twice.
Thank you everyone for the feedback. If you all feel so strongly that the continuation of the WRE will somehow alter Strabo's fate, then I will find an alternate path for his life to take, so long as it still coincides with the later Ostrogothic invasion of Italy. Despite the WRE's survival, I believe that the Ostrogoths would still have been a problem for Zeno. Indeed, they were even before Orestes's coup in Ravenna. So at the very least, we can presume that Zeno would have tried to move them westward if that's what it took to get the Ostrogoths out of his territory. I think that as far as he was concerned, it was better that they find a new homeland OUTSIDE of the ERE. I'll post an update to this timeline as soon as I decide exactly what's been going on with the Ostrogoths in this timeline. Meantime, I'm willing to consider any other ideas that could be helpful.
Suggestion: after defeating the Bulgars in 480, Strabo imposed his will to his generals and arrived to the doors of Constantinople. Zeno submitted to him, reconfirmed him magister militum and gave him more power. Strabo decided to directly conduce the diplomatic channels with the WRE, while he adopted with the time a more Roman lifestyle, alienating part of his people. Zeno and the Amal plotted to remove him, Strabo escaped in Italy under WRE protection and Theodoric had the casus belli to declare war without that Zeno need to be involved directly (the Amal used Strabo's escape as an internal affair of the Ostrogoths).