Inaction is a form of action
1398: Tired of the schism France withdraws support to the Avignon pope and a small army besieges the papal palace, hoping to force an end to the schism.
Papal palace of Avignon, built and destroyed by the French kings.
A Venetian merchant sent to the Far East to facilitate shipments of exotic cargo witnesses the funeral of 洪武帝 the Hongwu Emperor of China, the emperor chosen by the heavens. And why not? How else can a penniless monk overthrow the Yuan dynasty, expel the Mongols, and restored peace and prosperity to a famine stricken middle kingdom. Despite his achievements, succession of the middle kingdom now falls to his 25 sons and their grandsons. As a souvenir the Venetian Merchant buys a pittance in the late-emperor's devalued paper currency.
The Coat of arms of the Kingdom of Cyprus, comes nominally with the crown of Jerusalem as well
Janus of Cyprus, hostage of the Genoese is released from captivity upon the death of his father to assume the crowns of Cyprus, Armenia, and Jerusalem. With all effective power in Cyrus in the hands of the Genoese Janus secretly writes to the only other Christian power in the Eastern Mediterranean. [1]
1399: The siege of Bologna is lifted after 20 days as the inhabitants of the city surrenders. While the conditions of the surrender ensure safety of the city, an incident of a Milanese soldier stealing a horse quickly escalates into widespread looting. It takes over two days for the captains to regain control or to stop looting themselves. With the flag of Milan now resting over its gates the survivors of Bologna watch wearily as the armies of Milan march south towards Florence.
With Avignon under siege the demise of the Avignon pope now seems certain to Pope Boniface IX in Rome. With his theological authority restored the pope now turns to more temporal concerns of the realm, concerned with the growing power of Milan Boniface summons the Venetian ambassador for discussions.
1400: A Venetian fleet arrives off the coast of Famagusta, the center of Genoese power on Cyprus. While officially the fleet is only there to aid in the rightful restoration of Janus to his throne the secret purpose of the Venetian fleet is to acquire the strategically important natural harbour of Famagusta and to deny their Genoese competitors its benefit. Aided by Janus' militia, the Venetian fleet settles in for a long siege knowing that there are no reinforcements from an occupied Genoa.
Rupert of Palatine, emperor elect eagerly marches south towards Rome in anticipation of his coronation by the pope as Holy Roman Emperor in Rome and as the King of the Lombards in Milan.
1401: Confronted by a much larger and better equipped army of Milan, Rupert of Palatine is captured and brought to Gian Galeazzo Visconti personally. In exchange for his life and freedom Rupert is forced to concede the Iron Crown of the Lombards to Visconti and in addition acknowledge his claims to Genoa, Florence, Pisa, and Lucca. [2]
The imperial diet, upon learning of Rupert's capture and the terms of his release declares that the agreement was made under duress and thus invalid. Despite their condemnation few if any prince or bishop is inclined to send an army to retrieve the Iron crown and instead they delegate the expense of recovering the crown to the Emperor. [3]
Ladislaus of Naples is invited by Hungarian nobles to claim the throne of Hungary and Croatia, after signing a treaty of mutual defense against Milan the Venetian senate provides free passage for his army to debark in Dalmatia. For Ladislaus he has just secured free transport for his army and a potential ally for his ambitions in Tuscany, for the Venetians it is welcome interference against the occupier of her lost Dalmatian territories. In hopes of weakening Sigmund a considerable effort goes towards supplying and transporting Ladislaus' forces. [4]
1402: It has been twenty years since the end of the Serrate in Venice and the opening of trade to all. The Venetian tradition of entrepreneuring merchant explorers, long fading since the time of Marco Polo is slowly reviving in Venice as the profit of long range trade is available to all willing to risk the seas. [5]
Unnoticed by the average Venetian the Council of Ten fades into obscurity, not for a lack of will but simply a lack of agreement. No longer a monolithic senate of Patricians the new council cannot agree upon a common direction or even appointment for the Council of Ten, eventually a replacement committee was created but it was plagued by the same lack of consensus, even basic functions such as pomp laws could not be agreed upon. Still even without edicts such as the pomp laws, people are still disdainful of statues and open displays of pomp that carry with them signs of hubris and the notion of tyrants.
Spurred on by the Timurids, the Ottoman beyliks rebel against royal rule, intending to restore order and expel Bayzeid leads an army into Anatolia .Styling himself a new Genghis Khan Timur has slaughtered his way across the Muslim world from Central Asia and easily crushes his latest opponent in the battle of Ankara. Bayzeid and his sons are captured by Timur and the Ottoman kingdom is left without an heir. Attempts for an agreement between the Ottomans and the Venetians or Genoese for transportation across the Bosporus strait falters due to the Venetian-Genoese pre-occupation with Cyprus. The majority of the Ottoman army is crushed against the Aegean coast. With the throne only nominally controlled by Bayzeid the administration of the Ottoman kingdom is left to the Sufi scholars and the Janissaries ruling over a Christian populace. [6]
With all of Iraq, Syria, Anatolia, and central Asia under his rule Timur now the undisputed ruler of the Muslim world turns his armies east towards the Ming Dynasty.
Jean de Béthencourt, claiming the Canary Islands
Jean de Béthencourt, under the authority of Henry III of Castile, plants the flag of Castile on the Canary Islands. The pacification of the natives has begun. The land of the Canaries is noted as fertile and warm, excellent for crops such as sugar to supplement Venetian sugar from the Eastern Mediterranean. "Gifts" of sheep are given to the natives to serve as a source of nourishment when Castilian soldiers eventually arrive.
The forces of Milan meet the forces of Florence at the western base of the Apennines Mountains between Bologna and Florence. With preparations the Florentine forces manages to erect earthworks to nullify the Milanese cavalry and the battle is reduced to a match of sheer weight between armoured infantry. At enormous cost to the Florentine forces the 15, 000 strong army of Milan is scattered to the countryside. For the Florentine this is their last major effort, for Milan it was the costly but replaceable loss of skilled soldiers. Already new taxes are raised in Milan for another army while the citizens of Florence begin fortifying their city.
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[1]In OTL Genoa was under French rule and protection which protected Cyprus, in this TL Genoa is ruled by Visconti who was wed to Isabella of the French house of Valois till her death in 1373 and still has his daughter wed to Louis, duke of Orléans. In OTL Janus attempted to enlist Venetian help but the protection of the French fleet was too much, without naval support and lacking neither strong army nor siege equipment his efforts against the Genoese ended in failure. This is a butterfly of Venice letting Milan do as it likes, no French protectors for Genoa.
[2]Rupert in OTL managed to escape capture not that his escape helped him in OTL. Ruling over only Palatine Rupert was a poor prince, with little manpower, and elected at the mercy influence of several factions in the HRE. He was guaranteed to lose the battle.
[3] Things in the HRE are happening a bit earlier than OTL, but otherwise the same.
[4] Once again a Venice that isn't actively fighting both the Ottomans and Milanese has more resources to use elsewhere, indirectly supporting Ladislaus to rid the Adriatic shore of a hostile force fits quite well with the Venetian senate's aversion to direct conflict.
[5]I am aware that Marco Polo had special circumstances for his voyage, but he is among the most famous examples.
[6]In OTL the Venetians and Genoese helped the bulk of the veteran Ottoman forces across the Bosporus strait as they preferred leverage over the enemy they knew over the enemy they didn't, here previous commitments in Cyprus has tied them down. The effect of relative Venetian inaction in this timeline shows the limited ability of the Venetians and that much larger players are in the game. Most Venetian actions in the east so far have been concerned with securing ports for profit. On the other hand the Janissaries, a centralized and loyal institution for the sultan is left without direction but possibly spared the civil war between Bayzeid's sons. Most of the early Ottoman sultans led their armies personally; it has its advantages but also makes losses devastating dynastically.