The Aztec Dream

[Mozer]

I just wanna preface this beforehand, this is my first post and I'm no professional. My research and what I say here isn't gonna be perfect, but I would appreciate some criticism on anything that seems implausible or downright wrong. That's all, now history.

On August 13th, 1521 the Aztec Empire - the most advanced civilization in the Americas - fell to a man named Hernán Cortés and his march of around 800-1000 conquistadors. The Aztecs were given next to no opportunity for time to recuperate or reorganize. Really, they weren't given any time to do much of anything. Hernán and his men did away with approximately 200,000 Aztecs and including European diseases; about 2 million Aztecs died to the Spaniards from the time they landed until Tenochtitlan fell.

The Aztec downfall mainly stemmed from a lack of one thing: time. They didn't have time to understand their threat, they didn't have time to understand the weapons the Spanish used, they didn't have time to recover from their losses, etc. They didn't have time to do just about anything. They were overwhelmed at first contact by Hernán and his insane plot armor.
But what if that wasn't the case? What if the Aztecs and the surrounding native tribes were given a chance to bounce back after first contact? There's no way to possibly have the Spanish avoid Mexico all together, this was a land filled with gold after all. However, imagine if Hernán's invasion failed?

As I stated before, Hernán had insane plot armor. There were many, MANY points in his conquest of Mexico where he could've died. I mean, Hernán put the emperor under arrest and demanded all the gold in Tenochtitlan be delivered to him by the people. Should this POD or any other from a time earlier or later come into effect in which Hernán dies, that suddenly blanks upon Hernán's conquest and all that the Spanish empire achieved with it. The millions upon millions of tons of gold and silver from Mexico, Colombia, Peru and other Spanish colonies suddenly never make their way back to the homeland like how they did IOTL. How do you think the new and old worlds would evolve because of this?

 

[Silver01]

there are to many instances were the expedition would have failed and depending on the pod the mexica are better or worse off.

 

[Mozer]

there are to many instances were the expedition would have failed and depending on the pod the mexica are better or worse off.

I know, but so long as Hernán and his men are either captured or killed far before the siege of Tenochtitlan, the natives still stand a chance

 

[Atrahasis]

I don't think this would prevent the conquest of Colombia or Peru, in the first they already have settlements and the failure in Mexico wouldn't stop them as Hernan technically wasn't even supposed to conquer Mexico, with Peru, what allowed to conquer it was its internal situation and Panama, non of it is affected by the failure of Cortes.

And the outcome in Mexico depends on when Hernan loses, after humiliations like what leaded to the death of Moctezuma the Aztec empire could easily fragment and the region enter in some kind of warlord period, and Spain just tries again later; so it pretty much depends on when do they won.

 

[HyperMuscularDemon]

How about more advanced technology, (in this case, shipbuilding)? One of the biggest burdens that helped slow down civilization on the Americas was the fact that many of the areas which developed complex and powerful civilizations (Mesoamerica, the Andean region, the American Southwest, the Mississippian civilizations) only had relatively slow contact with each other. Maybe if the people of Pre Colombian West Mexico invent the outrigger canoe at some point (say at 250 AD), then naval technology could enter a period of rapid innovation, which could ensure contact with Oasisamerica and the Andean civilizations, which possibly could ensure that trade, ideas, technology, and science flourish due to this increased contact between Native American civilizations.

 

[Collondi]

I don't think this would prevent the conquest of Colombia or Peru, in the first they already have settlements and the failure in Mexico wouldn't stop them as Hernan technically wasn't even supposed to conquer Mexico, with Peru, what allowed to conquer it was its internal situation and Panama, non of it is affected by the failure of Cortes.

If Cortez failed the idea that you could conquer such large regions with so little men would be laughed at, so I don’t think the Spanish would fund as many conquistadors. Maybe to explore and find sources of gold, sure, but trying to outright conquer the Incas for example would be seen as a great way to get yourself killed.

And the outcome in Mexico depends on when Hernan loses, after humiliations like what leaded to the death of Moctezuma the Aztec empire could easily fragment and the region enter in some kind of warlord period, and Spain just tries again later; so it pretty much depends on when do they won.

I think it’s very likely the Aztecs collapse or at least decline, a big reason Cortez succeeded was because the Aztec tributary tribes allied with him for independence. They’d most likely buy European technology and use it to rebel, I’m not sure about “warlord period” but there wouldn’t be a central authority demanding tribute anymore and it’s possible the newly independent tribes fight each other over trade goods similar to the beaver wars. Again, it’s not guaranteed the Spanish are even willing to try again, and wouldn’t it be harder to conquer without an already imposed central authority to co-opt?

 

[Silver01]

I know, but so long as Hernán and his men are either captured or killed far before the siege of Tenochtitlan, the natives still stand a chance

You could make as late as the siege

 

[Silver01]

don't think this would prevent the conquest of Colombia or Peru, in the first they already have settlements and the failure in Mexico wouldn't stop them as Hernan technically wasn't even supposed to conquer Mexico,

It would with out Cortez setting example I don't think Pizarro would even try to capture Atahualpa especially if Cortez dies before he captured Moctezuma also the death of so many conquistadors might delay other expeditions Cortez was supposed to trade and explore and panama would likely try to avoid war with the Inca of fear of them being all killed if Cortez fails

 

[Hearkener]

They’d most likely buy European technology and use it to rebel, I’m not sure about “warlord period” but there wouldn’t be a central authority demanding tribute anymore and it’s possible the newly independent tribes fight each other over trade goods similar to the beaver wars.

The thing is that Spain was mostly interested in gold. Unlike beaver pelts, gold extraction can be scaled up exponentially. That means that it gets proportionally easier and more profitable to dig for gold with larger manpower and ressource investements. Which means that big, centralized states will profit from the gold trade more than small, decentralized ones.

And the people who had the most gold would be the Triple Alliance's government in Tenochtitlan. So likely they'd also be able to buy European weapons on a much larger scale than any of the rebels. If Spain cannot conquer Mexico, they also have a vested interest in maintaining political stability there to facilitate the gold-trade.

Hence, the economic forces you describe would likely strengthen the empire, as opposed to weakening it.

 

[Atrahasis]

If Cortez failed the idea that you could conquer such large regions with so little men would be laughed at, so I don’t think the Spanish would fund as many conquistadors. Maybe to explore and find sources of gold, sure, but trying to outright conquer the Incas for example would be seen as a great way to get yourself killed.

I think it’s very likely the Aztecs collapse or at least decline, a big reason Cortez succeeded was because the Aztec tributary tribes allied with him for independence. They’d most likely buy European technology and use it to rebel, I’m not sure about “warlord period” but there wouldn’t be a central authority demanding tribute anymore and it’s possible the newly independent tribes fight each other over trade goods similar to the beaver wars. Again, it’s not guaranteed the Spanish are even willing to try again, and wouldn’t it be harder to conquer without an already imposed central authority to co-opt?

It would with out Cortez setting example I don't think Pizarro would even try to capture Atahualpa especially if Cortez dies before he captured Moctezuma also the death of so many conquistadors might delay other expeditions Cortez was supposed to trade and explore and panama would likely try to avoid war with the Inca of fear of them being all killed if Cortez fails

Things were incredibly one sided when it came to military matters in favour of the Spanish until the noche triste (they literally won every battle with minimal losses, that's why Tlaxcala and other tribes allies with them after being defeated). The first actual POD you could have for them to lose is failing to capture Moctezuma until he hears that they are seen as rebels, so he executes them, this only causes the Spanish to realise that they shouldn't rebel against Cuba, while thinking that they have complete military superiority; and by this time they already have a base in Veracruz. For a decisive military victory there's a worse outcome for la noche triste, which wasn't even battle, anyone knows that it's extremely risky to infiltrate in the capital of your enemy and even more to escape from there, people would just think that Cortes' approach to the situation was wrong, but that they still have a total advantage in a military approach. In none of the cases you have them losing a pitched battle, everything they know is that there's a lot of risk for a lot of riches, something that they already knew and they still have Veracruz as a base (and lot of influence on the western coast of Mexico in general), that has most likely accepted the authority of Cuba. There's literally no reason for them to stop funding conquistadors, and even worse abandoning Colombia that for some reason the main comment assumes that it just has been abandoned. What may actually happen is that Pizarro never tries to capture Atahualpa after the failure of capturing Moctezuma, but he may try anyways as unlike with Tenochtitlan, he had control of the town where he captured him.

 

[HyperMuscularDemon]

What about the city of Cholula? Apparently, there was some plot of kind or another to kill Cortez but it failed. Maybe if the plot against Cortez set by the citizens of the city of Cholula succeeds then the Aztec empire could survive, although given how quickly many Mesoamerican monarchies and peoples eagerly allied with the Spanish the Aztec empire is probably going to have to make some reforms in order to survive.