Renovation: An Eastern Roman Timeline

[Constantinople]

Really great update. It's about how I'd imagine Asia Minor in a scenario like this. One wonders what direction some of the more tolerant and Greek states will go...

I really like what you've done with Aydin, it's good to see that good relationship continue..

 

[Deleted member 67076]

Really great update. It's about how I'd imagine Asia Minor in a scenario like this. One wonders what direction some of the more tolerant and Greek states will go...

I really like what you've done with Aydin, it's good to see that good relationship continue..

The support is appreciated. The Aydinids are fun to write about.

Anyways, here's something short and tantalizing while my midterms are underway.

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When we last left the empire, it was at 1356, at the signing of a peace treaty between two conflicting power blocs: A Genoese-Roman Alliance, and a coalition of Venetian led forces. Venice had, to put it bluntly, brutally lost the war and the peace showed. The treaty’s terms were harsh, involving massive losses of territory and a loss of entire markets- the ultimate punishment for a state whose economy was based on trade. But to the winners it was a just revenge (if such a thing is possible) against the centuries of transgressions the enemies had inflicted on them - you decide if that’s the case.

Anyways, this victory makes a vital turning point in imperial fortunes, literally and figuratively. For you see, the Empire has just gained territory for the first time since 1337, but more importantly with a major rival crippled, the rare breathing room for development that the state so desperately needed was finally there. We of course mustn’t ignore what’s been going on in Serbia and Bulgaria, but its really this-the crippling of Venice- that signals things are improving.

For with the withdrawal of Venice, a void is left. Something Romania will be very eager to replace. There's just so much to gain, All that extra trade, and customs revenue to be made. And as you might expect, that’s what happened. (Genoa also did the same, but the growth was rather slower due to having to rebuild their dilapidated navy and treasury before expanding trade. Compare this to Romania, who didn’t bear the brunt of much of the fighting in the same way the Merchant Republic did)

So what follows is a long economic expansion in Romania stemming from the Romans (partially) taking over Venice’s role as the major trading power in the Aegean and as the secondary trading power in the Black Sea. No longer worrying about the wrath of the Italians, Roman merchants and businessmen began to expand into previously unseen areas. With this expansion of course comes large amounts of wealth, filling the coffers to a level unseen since arguably Michael VIII. The income from trade is then put to use expanding the navy and the dockyards, which expands trade, which in turn brings in more wealth. Additionally, the artisanal sector sees a renaissance; not only are domestic markets able to buy, but the expansion of trade means that the demand for products such as Roman silk or wine begin to rise.

The old focus on areas where the Italians weren’t very active in isn’t forgotten by the empire however, in fact operations into places where competition is less is expanded, particularly in the Maghreb. As the Marinids conquer more and more of the African coast, the more markets the Roman state gets to sell its wares. (In fact, the Roman economy actually begins to start linking itself with the Trans-Saharan economy where the demand for Roman silk is insane, but that’s another story)

From the coattails of this comes a growth in all sectors of the economy, as sailors spend their hard earned income on their homes. At the same time, the state continues its distribution of patronage with infrastructure such as roads, hospitals, baths, etc. But perhaps most importantly are the establishment of financial institutions designed to aid an increasingly mercantile based state: Banks, Counting houses, that sort of thing. Which in turn are taken advantage by well to do yeoman farmers who began to improve their plots, or savvy businessmen looking to grow their profits.

This newfound wealth isn’t distributed equally. Cities are by far the beneficiaries of the next the years of expansion, much to the dissatisfaction of the country folk. It must be noted that yes, their quality of life and per capita income has risen over the years, but that is primarily due to less taxes being levied rather than government investment in their regions. Like with the army, the frontiers have been somewhat neglected. Outside of providing defensive fortifications and the necessary infrastructure to move and supply armies quickly and effectively, the state doesn’t really care about anything else in the frontier. In fact there’s a large amount of support in the government to purposely neglecting the frontiers economic development; it’ll make the empire appear less of a target and reduce raids, enemy forces will have a harder time scrounging off the land, the investment is put to better use in the south where the chance of attacks are much smaller, and so on. Understandibly the Zealot philosophy, with its emphasis on equality and prosperity for all had started to entrench itself amongst the rural population, eager for a slice of success. But another reason for the entrenchment of the Zealots amongst the rural poor in Macedonia that geographically, this new wealth tended to be clustered in the south, towards the cities and the coastal regions.

It must be stated that due to the mechanism of external trade, what with the the state’s monopoly and all, that whoever gets paid and benefits from this wealth was tied into a system of patronage within the government. This is not something new- patronage had been a noted part of Byzantine governance since the days of Alexios I, but with the rise of commercial activity and the state trading company becoming one of the principal sources of income for the empire, it was increasingly important to play into the cronyism and the cliques of the system.

 

[Nassirisimo]

I wonder how far this Byzantine focus on trade and urban civilization is going to go. Plus, will different trade and exploration patterns that emerge in the absence of the Ottoman Empire going to have bigger effects in the future?

 

[Dragos Cel Mare]

Sov, you never disappoint. Hmm, will Songhai still collapse in this timeline?

 

[Constantinople]

Excellent. That breathing room and the development of their new mercantile system will be very important. It also seems possible to me that the Palaiologos family may very well become the "permanent" imperial family ala the Ottomans or the Windsors (now). They play such a key role in the reestablishment of the Empire that they may very well become embedded in the empire's system...

I look forward to more updates.

 

[Deleted member 67076]

I wonder how far this Byzantine focus on trade and urban civilization is going to go. Plus, will different trade and exploration patterns that emerge in the absence of the Ottoman Empire going to have bigger effects in the future?

For the time being, its going to be huge. With a limited base of land and a shrinking population from plague and war, the old tax system isn't nearly as useful to obtain the necessary funds for the state. As well, the state has had to massively slash tax rates in order to keep their good will amongst the populace. Commercial activities, by virtue of not needing many people (comparatively speaking), become exceptionally attractive to the state. Which in turn, creates a emphasis on the cities, and who in turn want larger markets for their goods and thus, more trade.

This is a pattern that's going to continue for some time, at least until taxes from the population can once again become a major source of income for the state.

As for trade patterns, a huge yes! They've already begun to re-orient themselves in the presence of the Roman Empire around. For instance, Smyrna is now a major terminus of trade into Anatolia from the coasts and what we know as Algeria has become a major node in the Trans Saharan trade to transport Roman silk into the Sahelian state.

To give an example with a bit of a spoiler, without the Ottomans, the Indian Ocean trade is going to be more clustered around the Persian Gulf and overland trade via Antioch and other Syrian cities, rather than through primarily through the Red Sea.

Sov, you never disappoint. Hmm, will Songhai still collapse in this timeline?

Thanks!

Too early to tell. At the time, Songhai is still a minor player in the region. It is a rising one however thanks to the increasing volume of trade in the trans-Saharan region stemming from the Marinid solidification of control.

We can probably assume that it will rise to something like its historical extent. But from then on this increasingly depends on how the world outside its borders develops.

Excellent. That breathing room and the development of their new mercantile system will be very important. It also seems possible to me that the Palaiologos family may very well become the "permanent" imperial family ala the Ottomans or the Windsors (now). They play such a key role in the reestablishment of the Empire that they may very well become embedded in the empire's system...

I look forward to more updates.

Oh yeah. Its amazing how critical stability is for development.

The Palaiologoi can probably pull that off, but Roman society never placed much value on the dynasty in charge. I mean historically the Palaiologoi family was the longest lasting dynasty in all of Rome's history, from the founding of the city to its fall, and they didn't' make it to 300 years. All it takes is a couple bad rulers and their legitimacy will be nothing.

 

[Dragos Cel Mare]

Thanks, @Sov!

 

[Scorpius72]

So how many chapters till the budding Ottoman state gets its long overdue arse-kicking and the Byzantine-empire gets its revenge and pound of flesh?

 

[Komnenos002]

So how many chapters till the budding Ottoman state gets its long overdue arse-kicking and the Byzantine-empire gets its revenge and pound of flesh?

I would say it's awhile at least.

Rome is probably a better place to live for the lower classes at the moment, and has more long-term potential as well (burgeoning economy, slashed taxes, commercial and infrastructure focus). However the army is still neglected, and there's probably some degree of rot going on there. The Roman government seems to be very competent, but not so much in the army that doesn't factor into current plans.

If Rome invaded the Ottomans in the next update, I would expect to see an army with no reforms or attention get absolutely crushed. The Ottomans might not have as solid a foundation for future growth, but they're well-organised and have made a powerful regional military.

I also expect Rome to not focus heavily on Anatolia until Greece and the Aegean are fully secure. That means total control over the seas and trade, evicting the Latins from their still extant holdings in Greece, and dealing with Serbia. For that last one it could be diplomatically, militarily, or even just a Serbian implosion on its own efforts.

I suspect the Roman leadership knows all this as well. Digesting Greece and the Aegean, and having to deal with Serbia and any other curveballs will take time, but it'll also grow the army in size and competency. Once that is in place, I imagine Rome would be more than happy to begin campaigning against the Ottomans.

Of course Sov may shoot all this down.

 

[othyrsyde]

Great updates. Very curios about the ERE's mercantile adventures in the Saharran trade.

 

[Avrorrange]

So how many chapters till the budding Ottoman state gets its long overdue arse-kicking and the Byzantine-empire gets its revenge and pound of flesh?

Author said that the Roman Army would require at least twenty years to reform considering it's economic circumstances.Economic growth is definitely more important,although I do fear that guerrilla warfare alone can't actually impede a determined,well organized army.

 

[Deleted member 67076]

So how many chapters till the budding Ottoman state gets its long overdue arse-kicking and the Byzantine-empire gets its revenge and pound of flesh?

Until the Romans have an army that's more than a glorified militia. Komnenos002 is on point; the army is too weak, too small (although this will be rectified in the coming years. The army may not have the critical reforms it needs but since the days of Andronikos II the government has been complaining about how tiny the army is) and frankly the government doesn't care that much about it. Military conquests (and therefore, a strong armed forces) are secondary to obtaining commercial success, but these aren't mutually exclusive. Marines have been a thing for quite a long time.

Great updates. Very curios about the ERE's mercantile adventures in the Saharran trade.

Its not much at the moment. The Berbers and the Marinids are acting as Middlemen between the Gold and Salt of the Sahel and the Luxury goods of the ERE.

Author said that the Roman Army would require at least twenty years to reform considering it's economic circumstances. Economic growth is definitely more important,although I do fear that guerrilla warfare alone can't actually impede a determined,well organized army.

Growth is critical. Remember kids, Rome in ~1300 was making around 1.8 million Hyperpyrna over the course of the year. By 1323 it was making less than 1 million.

Guerrilla warefare isn't. The Roman army is thanks to its geopolitical situation in the last few decades tailored for asymmetrical warfare and defense.

 

[RGB]

A big shift in the Mediterranean there! Let's see what happens next, though, since there's more problems than just Venice to deal with.

 

[Deleted member 67076]

A big shift in the Mediterranean there! Let's see what happens next, though, since there's more problems than just Venice to deal with.

Indeed. With Venice gone, now Rome has to face the their greatest foe yet: The Market Economy.

 

[Komnenos002]

Until the Romans have an army that's more than a glorified militia. Komnenos002 is on point; the army is too weak, too small (although this will be rectified in the coming years. The army may not have the critical reforms it needs but since the days of Andronikos II the government has been complaining about how tiny the army is) and frankly the government doesn't care that much about it.

This seems to be worded that the Roman army will be expanded, but the deficiencies in doctrine and organisation will be left unattended. I think you've hinted earlier that Rome will be receiving a sharp shock at some point in the future. Could we see funds flow to the army with the situation improving, and then an unexpected (to Rome) defeat exposing the current flaws in the land forces?

After this we might have the impetus to have reforms pushed through. I mean, Anatolia awaits.

 

[Deleted member 67076]

Komnenos002: We've got 80+ years of defense in depth doctrine being the major policy- that idea has been really entrenched by now amongst the establishment. The system needs a good shake up so people realize things are out of date. Pretty much all the complaints in the period come from the armed forces being too small and the equipment being bad/outdated, not 'we need to change up our military strategy'.

Forgive the shortness, I will try to make these updates longer but its just that I haven't really had the time to really sit down and write.

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You might be asking yourself, whatever happened to our hero Alexios Apokaukos? What’s he been doing after masterminding the takeover of Eastern Rome and sweeping the forces of reaction out of power?

Here's what happened: Once the Civil War had finished, the admiral had set about to ensure the power of the aristocracy remained broken. For while he had always had plenty of support amongst the reformers in the imperial state apparatus, there was always the fear of stragglers from the old regime launching a countercoup and/or just causing trouble in the future. We must note that since corruption and patronage politics were rampant within Romania at the time, personal loyalties were up in the air whenever a new power came in. Apokaukos had to tread cautiously to make sure his authority remained unchallenged. And that means replacing much of the government bureaucrats with men who shared his views and owed their success to him and him alone (ironic considering he betrayed someone who he in turn owed everything to) in order to make sure that he dominated the patronage system of the court. This process was gradual, as to not cause too much harm to the administration, but over a series of years, the man had cemented control over the state. The church was another matter, but ultimately that branch of government was compliant with the new direction of the state for a variety of reasons (church lands were left alone, Patriarch John XIV had been a major proponent of the Regency forces in the civil war, the social welfare of the current government was pleasing to the church and so forth). This is not to say there were no clashes with the imperial government and the church, but for the most part the two saw eye to eye.

Once control had been cemented Apokaukos ran the government as he saw fit. His ideal of “a merchant republic with Roman characteristics” would be the guiding philosophy behind government decisions. As you likely know, Apokaukos was a western minded reformer who believed copying the Italians and their policies would be the key to success. Its hard to understate this. Any necessary reforms were made to fit this ideal. One of ultimately turning the state into a commercial power, for with the money gained from said businesses and trading, Rome could fund the efforts needed to become a superpower once more. The old school Roman philosophy of land and taxes being the key to a strong state were, in his mind, largely obsolete. However, we mustn't think that Alexios Apokaukos ran the state as simply an extension of a business, but its really important to note he was much more obsessed with commercial matters and finances than any ruler had in centuries.

From then on Megas Domestikos split his time between managing the state run trading company and administrating the nation. This state of affairs worked relatively fine until the aftermath of the Third Genoese-Venetian War for as Venice’s withdrawal from the region paved the way for a massive expansion on the navy and the state trading company. However, Apokaukos’ micromanagement tendencies did not erode over the years; he attempted to both government and business an equal amount of effort in ensuring efficiency and profits. Such policies were increasingly taxing on the man, and so he realized he had to delegate power away from himself. Given the choice between Romania’s administration and the navy, the statesmen chose the latter. The navy had always been Apokaukos’ pet project, he himself was the one to pay out of pocket to rebuild the navy from scratch. To part with it would have been too much for the man. On the other hand, the government was filled with his supporters, was reasonably well managed and of course the young emperor, now a man, had been eager to test the waters of his power.

 

[Dragos Cel Mare]

Squee! Another great update!

 

[Scorpius72]

I can't wait till the Ottomans get their long overdue arse-kicking.

 

[BgKnight]

can't wait for more, keep up the good work

 

[Nagisaki]

Great job Soverihn! Keep it up!