POD and Consequences for WWI Ending in 1916?

[Roderick Hutchinson]

Well the Turnip Winter was very bad in Germany and the Germans were very stressed trying to manage the Somme, Verdun and Brusilov at the same time.

Any of those 3 going better for the allies could set things off like a domino in my opinion.

Yes, but what happens if and this is a big if, that the Somme, Verdun and Brusilov are Central Powers victories and allied losses.

 

[Crazyduck156]

To Crazyduck I apologise as I took your post as a personal attack, I now know it wasn't, so please forgive me, all I want is to have a great relationship with you and everyone else.

Its fine mate, no worries.

 

[naraic]

Yes, but what happens if and this is a big if, that the Somme, Verdun and Brusilov are Central Powers victories and allied losses.

The Germans are generally considered to have overperformed in both the Somme and Verdun and even the Brusilov offensive gained territory at the cost of blood.

It's a lot easier to get a British or a French or even a Russian improvement than it is to get a German improvement.

There was key mistakes and flaws in how the Entente fought and planned that are relatively easy to recognise and fix.

The Germans had less troops present and inflicted more losses.

If the Germans crush the Allies on all 3 fronts they win but there's no reasonable pod that could see that happen imo. Especially as it probably needs multiple POD to make happen.

 

[Roderick Hutchinson]

After having a look at Verdun it was a protracted battle lasting at least 12 months, with the French claiming victory, but what got me was that both sides suffered almost the same in casualties. What I read that it was the narrowest of victories, it was not a knock out blow against German forces.
My view on this, Verdun was a narrow German victory, not by much but a victory none the less leading to the retreat of the French Army, thus evacuating the Verdun area, leading to a quasi stalemate.
I'll look at Somme and make an opinion on that.

 

[Roderick Hutchinson]

As for the Battle of the Somme according my source's the Battle of the Somme was called indecisive at best, that the Germans were outnumbered.
Let say that the Germans have the same number of Divisions about an additional 30 divisions, which matches the British and French, then we can say that it would at least on paper a decisive German victory, meaning in this situation the Germans have won both Somme and Verdun.
The estimate casualties for the allies in this situation is catastrophic, the two battles combined amount to over 600,000 casualties for the allies, this for KIA,WIA and MIA or captured.

 

[ArtosStark]

After having a look at Verdun it was a protracted battle lasting at least 12 months, with the French claiming victory, but what got me was that both sides suffered almost the same in casualties. What I read that it was the narrowest of victories, it was not a knock out blow against German forces.
My view on this, Verdun was a narrow German victory, not by much but a victory none the less leading to the retreat of the French Army, thus evacuating the Verdun area, leading to a quasi stalemate.
I'll look at Somme and make an opinion on that.

If the point had been to push the French back slightly that might have been the case. But the point for the Germans was to bleed the French white through attrition while keeping their army intact. The fact that they suffered similar casualties to the French was very much a failure for Germany.

As for the Battle of the Somme according my source's the Battle of the Somme was called indecisive at best, that the Germans were outnumbered.
Let say that the Germans have the same number of Divisions about an additional 30 divisions, which matches the British and French, then we can say that it would at least on paper a decisive German victory, meaning in this situation the Germans have won both Somme and Verdun.
The estimate casualties for the allies in this situation is catastrophic, the two battles combined amount to over 600,000 casualties for the allies, this for KIA,WIA and MIA or captured.

Sure, but those 30 divisions come from somewhere. The Entente plan for 1916 was a general offensive, with near simultaneous attacks from the British sector (with French aid), the French sector and from the Russians (the Brusilov offensive). This was meant to stretch Germany to the breaking point as they could not pull reinforcements from any one area to help them defend a particular sector without endangering the others. The Germans got ahead of this somewhat by attacking at Verdun first. This forced the Somme to go ahead early and with much less French support. The Brusilov offensive also got move up somewhat IIRC.

If the Germans are pulling 30 divisions from another front to fight on the Somme (and it wasn’t actually clear that that was where the British would attack until not too long before the battle) then either they are not attacking at Verdun, which leaves the French open for support, or the Brusilov offensive is facing far less German opposition.

World War One in this period is not so much about who comes out on top of particular battles. The battles are probably better understood as individual skirmishes in a larger siege battle.

 

[Roderick Hutchinson]

There in lies the flaw, Germany was fighting a multi front war, something it did in ww2 and paid the consequences on both counts.

How about this situation, Germany is struggling to play out in the east and west, also the massive problem for Germany, it has to sacrifice to keep the Austro-Hungarians in the war.

Germany has no option but to send vital men to Austria to stop the Italians belting the crap out of the Austro-Hungarian forces. Then they have to redirect divisions east into Galacia where the Russians thump the crap out of the Germans and Austro-Hungarian forces with them facing up to 1 million casualties. Then the Germans themselves are stretched to the limit at Verdun and Somme offensives.

The Germans are torn to shreds in both battles. Germany loses over 600,000+casualties. All the while in Germany itself there are open revolts against the war, then there is the failure of German crops, because Germany is stripping young men from the agriculture scene, meaning there is a disastrous manpower shortage of farm workers.

Then there is the open revolt of the Germans in the Navy, they refuse to put to sea, followed on by mass desertions from the German Army. Finally the General staff revolts. It is 1st December 1916 when Germany sues for peace in asking for an armistice.

The Allies seeing this decides to negotiate an armistice. Officially on the 10th January 1917 the guns fall silent, the war is over it is a comprehensive Allied victory.

 

[Pericles]

I was thinking about this recently and perhaps the Brusilov Offensive being followed up could have been too much pressure for Germany to handle. This would have been a hugely consequential change in world history by placing Russia in the ranks of the victors and delaying (but not preventing imo) the collapse of the Tsarist regime.

What if the Brusilov Offensive was more successful?

The Brusilov Offensive is an interesting potential turning point for the Russian Empire and the Allies to do better in WWI. The Offensive, while producing impressive results against the Austro-Hungarians, did not matter much for the Russians in the long-term. I'd be interested to see what other...

www.alternatehistory.com

 

[CalBear]

Lol

This is Sonny the Baby Sealion.

Every time someone is a jerk for no reason on AH.com it makes sonny cry.

Please don't make Sonny cry again.

 

[Pericles]

As a New Zealander, I also wonder if a successful Gallipoli could have caused this. I need to do more research into it though before I could give an opinion on its plausability and how that TL might go. Previous TLs or threads on this would be cool to see.

 

[jacob ningen]

Perhaps Ottomans remain neutral (altough I can't figure good POD for that, perhaps Three Pashas never take power). Then Entente could have more resources against Germany and A-H and Bulgaria might stay out so Serbia has not worrie about them. And Russia wouldn't be strangled so badly when Bosborus is not blocked.

which might butterfly NILI and the revolt of the Sharif of the two cities

 

[ennobee]

If nothing else, the war ending before the US enters would butterfly away the shunning of everything German in the US and give the US a distinct more openly German subculture with no one batting an eye about German-Americans writing books in American German or the nations biggest airplane company still being called Wilhelm Böing & co.

I don't know if this would impact prohibition (I always thought one of the main factors behind it passing in 1919 was the silencing of the inherently German beergarden culture.) or even women gaining the right to vote (no massive draft meaning no relying on women in the workplace) but the possibilities are there.

Off course if Germany wins in 1916 and it gets too greedy in Northern France and Belgium, the anti-German sentiment in the US could flare up real quick again.

 

[naraic]

As a New Zealander, I also wonder if a successful Gallipoli could have caused this. I need to do more research into it though before I could give an opinion on its plausability and how that TL might go. Previous TLs or threads on this would be cool to see.

A successful Gallipoli would see more Entente assets available through 1916, a time where the Germans were quiet stretched on multiple fronts.

 

[ILPD45]

I am not very good on ww1, but here goes.
The British and French forces are torn to shreds in their offensives that in 1916 alone amounts to over 400,000 dead, Britain is being bled white, the folks at home are becoming increasingly angered at the horrific losses suffered in which the folks begin to protest, mass demonstrations in Britain are taking place, those elected to office receive blood soaked feather via the mail and also are physically attacked.
Jutland is a German victory, not only that but the Germans are effecting the blitz with airships and heavy bombers.
Finally the British politicians get the message, there is through Switzerland the first tentative steps by the British and French to open negotiations for peace.
Meanwhile in the USA folks tell their leaders they want nothing of the war in Europe, also the Germans give no reason for America to declare war on Germany, so in this the Americans never enter the war.
Finally at the time of 11.00am on the 11th of November 1916 the guns fall silent. Part of the Armistice and the subsequent Treaty of Berlin, Britain must assume full responsiblities for the outbreak of hostilities, and is forced into reparations beginning with the surrender of the RN, which is ordered into the Baltic. Britain must demolish it's airforce and is restricted to a stand in army of no more that 50,000

So, in other words, Britain basically suffers the same post-WWI fate that Germany did in real life.

Let’s hope this doesn’t mean that we’ll be seeing the British equivalent of (what we know as) the Nazis taking hold…