POD and Consequences for WWI Ending in 1916?

ChrisTheCat

What POD do you think would best lead to WWI ending in late 1916? Victor doesn't matter, just wondering how the War to End All Wars could have been cut in half, sparing millions.

What would be the consequences of this in the long term? Does AH survive? How do Russia and the Ottomans cope? British, French, German and Italian colonial ambitions would need to be considered too.

I can't think of a good POD, but even with an Entente victory, if the war ended two full years earlier I don't see peace being so harsh, particularly for AH. Serbia, Russia and Italy are compensated territorially perhaps, but it's possible that without US involvement and without nationalist tensions rising as much as they had by 1918, AH wouldn't be completely dismantled? Though who knows, they may rip themselves apart in the 1917 Ausgleich...
 

Lalli

Perhaps Ottomans remain neutral (altough I can't figure good POD for that, perhaps Three Pashas never take power). Then Entente could have more resources against Germany and A-H and Bulgaria might stay out so Serbia has not worrie about them. And Russia wouldn't be strangled so badly when Bosborus is not blocked.
 

naraic

1916 is the easiest point for an early Entente victory.

You have the Somme, Verdun, the Brusilov offensive, Romania joining the war and Jutland followed by the Turnip Winter.

While some people consider Jutland a German victory large numbers of troops (mainly 2nd line but its still relevant) and artillery guns were diverted to the coast.

A clear German loss at Jutland or a worse German performance in either the Somme, Verdun or the east could see significant Entente progress as the Germans try to shuffle things around to plug gaps.

Follow a worse 1916 with the Turnip Winter and maybe something will break.
 

Roderick Hutchinson

Banned
I am not very good on ww1, but here goes.
The British and French forces are torn to shreds in their offensives that in 1916 alone amounts to over 400,000 dead, Britain is being bled white, the folks at home are becoming increasingly angered at the horrific losses suffered in which the folks begin to protest, mass demonstrations in Britain are taking place, those elected to office receive blood soaked feather via the mail and also are physically attacked.
Jutland is a German victory, not only that but the Germans are effecting the blitz with airships and heavy bombers.
Finally the British politicians get the message, there is through Switzerland the first tentative steps by the British and French to open negotiations for peace.
Meanwhile in the USA folks tell their leaders they want nothing of the war in Europe, also the Germans give no reason for America to declare war on Germany, so in this the Americans never enter the war.
Finally at the time of 11.00am on the 11th of November 1916 the guns fall silent. Part of the Armistice and the subsequent Treaty of Berlin, Britain must assume full responsiblities for the outbreak of hostilities, and is forced into reparations beginning with the surrender of the RN, which is ordered into the Baltic. Britain must demolish it's airforce and is restricted to a stand in army of no more that 50,000
 
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bguy

Donor
In 1914 during the German advance into France, a 40 mile gap opened up between the First and Second German Armies. If the BEF had taken advantage of that opportunity to advance into the gap, it could have put the Germans in a very bad way.

Politics of the Central Powers After an Early Entente Victory?

I'm in the planning stages of my first Post-1900 timeline, and I've decided to focus it on the aftermath of an early Entente victory in WW1. I'm considering PODs like Plan XVII being rejected or the British Expeditionary Force advancing between the German 1st and 2nd Armies. Would either of...
www.alternatehistory.com

If we assume the BEF does advance into the gap between the German armies, the German First Army gets cut off and destroyed, and the German Second through Fifth Armies fall back all the way to the Meuse then that could set the conditions for the Entente to win the war by 1916. With the Germans having suffered such a tremendous defeat in France in 1914 that will probably give the Ottomans pause about entering the war which in turn makes Russia a lot stronger. (Both because of the lack of a Caucasus Front and because the Germans won't be able to send many troops east with their situation in the west being so bad). And with Germany weaker, Russia stronger, and the Ottomans neutral that probably keeps Bulgaria out of the war (which means Serbia doesn't fall in 1915.) Thus by 1916 the Austro-Hungarians are in serious trouble. They are getting much less support from Germany than IOTL while having to face a stronger Russia, while still fighting Serbia (who has probably been reinforced by the British and French, since the lack of a war against the Ottomans frees up a lot of Entente troops to fight in the Balkans) and while having to fight the Italians (who will certainly still join the Entente ITTL.) Thus with the Austro-Hungarians under heavy pressure on three fronts, TTL's Brusilov Offensive equivalent is likely to break them, and once they collapse the Germans will have to sue for peace.

As for whether the peace terms would be softer, I don't know. France and Britain have suffered far less than IOTL, so that will probably moderate their demands, but the Russian Empire is going to be sitting at the table as well, and it will want its pound of flesh.
 

Crazyduck156

Roderick Hutchinson said:
I am not very good on ww1, but here goes.
The British and French forces are torn to shreds in their offensives that in 1916 alone amounts to over 400,000 dead, Britain is being bled white, the folks at home are becoming increasingly angered at the horrific losses suffered in which the folks begin to protest, mass demonstrations in Britain are taking place, those elected to office receive blood soaked feather via the mail and also are physically attacked.
Jutland is a German victory, not only that but the Germans are effecting the blitz with airships and heavy bombers.
Finally the British politicians get the message, there is through Switzerland the first tentative steps by the British and French to open negotiations for peace.
Meanwhile in the USA folks tell their leaders they want nothing of the war in Europe, also the Germans give no reason for America to declare war on Germany, so in this the Americans never enter the war.
Finally at the time of 11.00am on the 11th of November 1916 the guns fall silent. Part of the Armistice and the subsequent Treaty of Berlin, Britain must assume full responsiblities for the outbreak of hostilities, and is forced into reparations beginning with the surrender of the RN, which is ordered into the Baltic. Britain must demolish it's airforce and is restricted to a stand in army of no more that 50,000
Click to expand...
Lol
 
DracoLazarus

DracoLazarus

bguy said:
In 1914 during the German advance into France, a 40 mile gap opened up between the First and Second German Armies. If the BEF had taken advantage of that opportunity to advance into the gap, it could have put the Germans in a very bad way.

Politics of the Central Powers After an Early Entente Victory?

I'm in the planning stages of my first Post-1900 timeline, and I've decided to focus it on the aftermath of an early Entente victory in WW1. I'm considering PODs like Plan XVII being rejected or the British Expeditionary Force advancing between the German 1st and 2nd Armies. Would either of...
www.alternatehistory.com

If we assume the BEF does advance into the gap between the German armies, the German First Army gets cut off and destroyed, and the German Second through Fifth Armies fall back all the way to the Meuse then that could set the conditions for the Entente to win the war by 1916. With the Germans having suffered such a tremendous defeat in France in 1914 that will probably give the Ottomans pause about entering the war which in turn makes Russia a lot stronger. (Both because of the lack of a Caucasus Front and because the Germans won't be able to send many troops east with their situation in the west being so bad). And with Germany weaker, Russia stronger, and the Ottomans neutral that probably keeps Bulgaria out of the war (which means Serbia doesn't fall in 1915.) Thus by 1916 the Austro-Hungarians are in serious trouble. They are getting much less support from Germany than IOTL while having to face a stronger Russia, while still fighting Serbia (who has probably been reinforced by the British and French, since the lack of a war against the Ottomans frees up a lot of Entente troops to fight in the Balkans) and while having to fight the Italians (who will certainly still join the Entente ITTL.) Thus with the Austro-Hungarians under heavy pressure on three fronts, TTL's Brusilov Offensive equivalent is likely to break them, and once they collapse the Germans will have to sue for peace.

As for whether the peace terms would be softer, I don't know. France and Britain have suffered far less than IOTL, so that will probably moderate their demands, but the Russian Empire is going to be sitting at the table as well, and it will want its pound of flesh.
Click to expand...

In the event of a 1916 Entente victory, it's likely that you see Russia gain Memelland, Poznania, and Galicia-Lodomeria. Serbia likely gains Bosnia, Romania may gain a smaller Transylvania.
The German colonial Empire is kaput anyway, and the territorial settlement in the West is likely unaffected. Austria-Hungary would remain, but severely slimmed down.
 
RedSword12

RedSword12

Roderick Hutchinson said:
I am not very good on ww1, but here goes.
The British and French forces are torn to shreds in their offensives that in 1916 alone amounts to over 400,000 dead, Britain is being bled white, the folks at home are becoming increasingly angered at the horrific losses suffered in which the folks begin to protest, mass demonstrations in Britain are taking place, those elected to office receive blood soaked feather via the mail and also are physically attacked.
Jutland is a German victory, not only that but the Germans are effecting the blitz with airships and heavy bombers.
Finally the British politicians get the message, there is through Switzerland the first tentative steps by the British and French to open negotiations for peace.
Meanwhile in the USA folks tell their leaders they want nothing of the war in Europe, also the Germans give no reason for America to declare war on Germany, so in this the Americans never enter the war.
Finally at the time of 11.00am on the 11th of November 1916 the guns fall silent. Part of the Armistice and the subsequent Treaty of Berlin, Britain must assume full responsiblities for the outbreak of hostilities, and is forced into reparations beginning with the surrender of the RN, which is ordered into the Baltic. Britain must demolish it's airforce and is restricted to a stand in army of no more that 50,000
Click to expand...
Crazyduck156 said:
Lol
Click to expand...
While I think @Crazyduck156 is being a tad impolite and condescending, I do concur that this is not a realistic scenario in the slightest.
 

bguy

Donor
DracoLazarus said:
In the event of a 1916 Entente victory, it's likely that you see Russia gain Memelland, Poznania, and Galicia-Lodomeria. Serbia likely gains Bosnia, Romania may gain a smaller Transylvania.
The German colonial Empire is kaput anyway, and the territorial settlement in the West is likely unaffected. Austria-Hungary would remain, but severely slimmed down.
Click to expand...

Seems plausible. What about Italy? I imagine Russia will back Serbia's claims in Dalmatia. Will Britain support Italy's claims to try and keep the Russians in check?
 
DracoLazarus

DracoLazarus

bguy said:
Seems plausible. What about Italy? I imagine Russia will back Serbia's claims in Dalmatia. Will Britain support Italy's claims to try and keep the Russians in check?
Click to expand...
I expect a mostly OTL result for Italy. Fiume is going to Italy, and Kotor to Montenegro. Not sure if the Entente would support fully picking apart Austro-Hungarian Dalmatia and Croatia, though
 

Post

Roderick Hutchinson said:
As I said, I am not really good on ww1. Oh by the way you do get those on websites who are condescending because when they were children they were bullies who picked on the weak because they are gutless cowards.
Click to expand...
In general on this website the mods suggest reporting a post if you think it's offensive and not get into a shouting match.
 

Samsonov

Potential PoDs:
Entente victory: 8th army surrounded in the East, 1st army surrounded in West (as mentioned above), Italy and Romania even Bulgaria declare war on Austria Hungary in 1914, no plan 17 and instead a decent defensive strategy by the French, Gallipoli is a major success.
Central Powers: Capture channel ports in 1914, Britain delays joining, British army surrounded in 1914, Conrad deploys the 4th (?) army to Russia which prevents fall of Przemsyl, major German naval victory in 1914 when they have dreadnought parity, Italy joins the CP.

These are just suggestions, none are guaranteed to result in an end by 1916.

I think any peace treaty will be more moderate. Most these would result in a battlefield victory, rather than defeat through economic collapse. The home front would generally be stronger. As such, the victors home front has less desire for revenge and the losers home front has more capacity to keep fighting.

Similarly, whilst the Austro Hungarian, Russian and Ottoman empires were stressed pre-war, they are all going to to get a lot less strain in a 1916 peace. Some or all may survive, though I think significant reforms would need follow to have any chance of long term survival with the possible exception of Russia.

A shorter war does lead to less brutalisation though if equivalents to Somme and Verdun still happen then not by much, so I think there might not be too large a change in underlying psyche, so culturally and in relation to political extremism not that much might change.

USA stays neutral, which might mean Britain renews alliance with Japan rather than pivot to US which then has implications for Japanese militarism.

Has insufficient been done by women in work to impact universal suffrage?

If the defeated side aims to overturn the treaty in the style of 1930s Germany, is appeasement still going to be a popular response given the war going on for half the length?

Are we still going to get a league of nations? And if so are people more or less likely to use it militarily?
 

Canopus108

Turning to the east for consequences - Japan and the United Kingdom successfully took Qingdao in 1914, and when the Treaty of Versailles granted German concessions in China to Japan it sparked
- the May Fourth youth movement
- the overthrow of the sitting Japanese-backed government (the Anhui Clique)
- the ascendancy of the anti-Japanese Zhili Clique
- the formation of the Communist Party

Additionally the collapse of Russia led to the Soviets sending significant aid to the early nationalists, and one of their advisors, Borodin, was key in planning the Northern Expedition that wiped out the Zhili and put Chiang Kai-Shek in charge of the Republic.

Moving the end of the war forward to 1916 will not prevent Japan from taking Qingdao, but it will put many of the key players of China's early 20th century politics in different places. Mao Zedong didn't even finish school until 1919! There's so many butterflies that could happen with an earlier May Fourth movement.

- With potentially no Soviet Union and thus no Soviet Union support Chiang's right wing supporters are likely weaker, ironically strengthening the left wing of the KMT in the person of Wang Jingwei and the Wuhan coalition government (assuming they even form).
- Depending on when exactly the war ends, Yuan Shihkai could be on his deathbed or only recently deceased. How does the Zhili-Anhui war go if the Anhui aren't sure who's in charge? Perhaps Tang Shaoyi takes the presidency instead of Duan Qirui.
- no Chinese labour corps and the 2.2 billion in value they brought - correspondingly no Chinese seat at the Treaty of Versailles
- Is the communist party still formed by Chen Duxiu and Li Dazhao or a different leftist? The New Culture Movement of 1915 is a much fresher precedent if this happens in 1916. Mao is probably not a "founder of the Party" and might even form a rival organisation.

You could essentially rewrite 20th century Chinese history with a 1916 WW1 end - and that's just considering an Entente victory.
 
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Roderick Hutchinson

Banned
What would be the significant trigger for the German and Austro-Hungarian Empires to go grovelling to the Allies (sans USA), while they have an intact Navies, Air Forces and Armies, both at this point are not suffering economically or politically.
 

naraic

Roderick Hutchinson said:
What would be the significant trigger for the German and Austro-Hungarian Empires to go grovelling to the Allies (sans USA), while they have an intact Navies, Air Forces and Armies, both at this point are not suffering economically or politically.
Click to expand...
Well the Turnip Winter was very bad in Germany and the Germans were very stressed trying to manage the Somme, Verdun and Brusilov at the same time.

Any of those 3 going better for the allies could set things off like a domino in my opinion.
 
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