PC/WI: Medieval Sweden remains fragmented

What we today know as the Kingdom of Sweden was, back in the Middle Ages, a rather cloudy area in regards to historical knowlege. The consensus between historians seems to be that Sweden was divided between a plethora of local leaders and jarls who might have answered to a high king of sorts. Or maybe two, if we consider true the hypothesis that Sweden was then divided between a southern kingdom ("Gothland") and a northern kingdom centered on Uppland ("Sverige").
Nevertheless Sweden finally appears reliably in historically attested sources as a local, cohesive political actor around the 13th century, one of the last Scandinavian kingdoms to do so. Of particular emphasis seems to be the figure of Birger Magnusson, a nobleman and regent for the kingdom who articulated the crushing of internal dissent within Sweden, the founding of Stockholm, and also a military expedition to the coast of Finland. Sweden would later on grow to become a powerhouse in the Baltic Sea, staying relatively strong (even able to undertake formidable military campaigns both at land and at sea) up until the Napoleonic Wars.
So, what if Sweden as we know it never came to be? Say, it remains divided between two, three or more kingdoms that are too busy squabbling against one another to coordinate a cohesive foreign policy.
What sort of paths would OTL Sweden's neighbors go about? Mainly Denmark, Norway, the Finnish tribes, the Baltics, Russia, Germany and Poland. Would the concept of "dominium maris baltici" even develop at all?
 
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Two tricks to do that. One is to butterfly away Birger Jarl from consolidating Sweden into a more cohesive kingdom. No Stockholm means no royal center of authority, so that might lead to more fragmentation.

The second is to prevent the Kalmar union from happening. That lead to a more defined swedish atmosphere and ultimately ended up putting Gustav I Vasa on the throne in 1523.
 
Bump. Could Novgorod or an equivalent northern Russian state establish a further measure of control over Finland and Laponia?
 
that seems likely, although it would be cool if Poland-Lithuania became the dominant baltic power
Cool, but Denmark is more likely to become the one (on the sea)

Of course, if for example, Poland gets more of the Pomeranian coast or the Prussia, the sea direction might become more interesting for Polish rulers
 
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