Of Rajahs and Hornbills: A timeline of Brooke Sarawak

1880's: The Conference of Brussels
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Adam Kenyatta, The Colonial Age in Africa, (Uhuru Press, 1999)


…For three months, Leopold slipped in and out of consciousness from his stroke. The month of August saw the king finally awaken, but observers saw a man irrevocably changed. The stroke had left him mute and immobile, confining the monarch to his bed at Laeken Palace. On the 17th of December 1885, the King of The Belgians breathed his last, dying of complications arising from his damaged brain.

To the governments of Europe, his death opened a massive hole. Leopold was supposed to be the chairman of the Conference of Brussels, the one who would oversee the main meetings at the Royal Palace in the capital. Besides that, he was the strongest advocate for open trade in the Congo and his ill health left the royally-sponsored Congo Society floundering without a solid leader.

As a result, Central Africa became the biggest issue when talks began on the 25th of July. Initially, it was hoped that Portugal would attain the Congo, but many voices resounded on the nation’s poor record of thrusting slavery on native Africans; Leopold’s smear campaign has done its job. Attention then turned to France as the Third Republic had already established an outpost on the north bank of the Congo River and wanted to expand into the region. Several other delegations, most notably the British, viewed this as too much an expansion of French influence and argued otherwise. Italy was considered, but it was also blocked for the same reasons.

With the issue in deadlock, it quickly became clear to the delegates that the vastness of the Congo – and its potential riches – could not go to any Great Power. As a result, attention began to turn to some of the other middling nations in attendance. The Netherlands sent a delegation, but they were more interested with Southeast Asia in general. Denmark was uninterested, as was Sweden-Norway, while the resurgent Ottomans were more focused on holding North Africa.

Ultimately, control of the Congo Basin was handed over to the only Middle Power that was both interested in the region and agreeable to all delegates: Spain. It was an unorthodox decision, but many agreed that a neutral and open Spanish Congo would act as a powerful check against any competing interests in the heart of Africa. Besides this, the nation has a long – if neglectful – history of regional involvement through its colony of Mbini.

But controversy and conflicting interests reared their heads on other issues. Portugal unfurled a ‘Pink Map’ proposal in which a large part of southern Africa would be annexed to connect the Portuguese colonies of Angola and Mozambique. All the delegations agreed to the idea except the British, which had their own interests over in Barotseland and Matabeleland. Meanwhile, France and Germany quarrelled over Ubangi-Shari as they seek to connect their colonies across the Sahel. Further up north, the Third Republic argued with the Ottomans as to how much of the Sahara can be portioned out.

Some of these issues did manage to get resolved. A dividing line delineating Ottoman and French spheres of influence was drawn on the 10th meridian west of Greenwich, stretching from the Tripolitania Vilayet all the way to the Yobe River. Great Britain managed to get its own sphere of influence over in Tanganyika (mainly through influence over Zanzibar) while Germany snagged Kamerun and a portion of southwest Africa. Italy received influence over in two places: northwest-wards over the Eritrean panhandle from Assab; and northwards till the 7th parallel over a portion of Somaliland (where they had also been building influence with the Somali sultanates).

But for every agreed deal, there was another one that fell apart. France and Germany never did resolve their dispute over Ubangi-Shari, and neither did Great Britain and Portugal over southern Africa. Instead, both issues would be resolved in the following years as companies and generals enforced their claim by force over swathes of Africa. Even for the agreed parties, their spheres of influence was only meant as a guide to what they could have; No one could have predicted the rise of Abyssinia (later Ethiopia), while Spain would find itself frustrated as every neighbouring Power used every opportunity they had to carve up the Congo borderlands for themselves.

As 1885 closed and the funeral carriage of Leopold II rolled its way across Brussels, there must have been some who wondered what could have happened if the man had lived. With him as master of the Congo, would Leopold be kinder towards the Congolese than the Spanish? Could he have arbitrated the disputes between various Powers? Would it have made any difference whatsoever?

Who knows?

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Notes:

1) So… yeah. The main reason why this update took me so long was that dang map. I know I have missed a few more African kingdoms, but I think I have enough of looking at it. The full version can be found here.

2) The main POD here is Leopold II’s death from complications arising from a stroke. There are several more that will be made clear soon, but you can see their effects from the update and map above.​
 
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Mhm, a very rough arrangement with lots of potential for change but I like what I am seeing thus far. A Spanish Congo is certainly something I have never seen in a timeline (and very rarely on one-shot maps, most of which were made by myself XD), and I love the fact that the strength of the Ottomans has killed Cape-to-Cairo in its crib as well (and enabled a surviving Wituland with the potential to become huge) Also weren't the Dervishes in modern Somalia and eastern Ethiopia? Shouldn't it perhaps be the Madhists?

And, of course, last but not least: Ding-dong, the king is dead! Which old king? The wicked king.
 
No one could have predicted the rise of Abyssinia (later Ethiopia)

So Italy will lose the battle of Adua as OTL. A modern, independent and powerful Abyssinia like Japan, it's an interesting novelty.

With the issue in deadlock, it quickly became clear to the delegates that the vastness of the Congo – and its potential riches – could not go to any Great Power. As a result, attention began to turn to some of the other middling nations in attendance. The Netherlands sent a delegation, but they were more interested with Southeast Asia in general. Denmark was uninterested, as was Sweden-Norway, while the resurgent Ottomans were more focused on holding North Africa.

Sooner or later Denmark will get a vast african colony.
 
So Italy will lose the battle of Adua as OTL. A modern, independent and powerful Abyssinia like Japan, it's an interesting novelty.

There is a lot of problems in this scenario, first Abyssinia itself it's more a feudal states with very deep division than something akin a modern nation and was chararterizated by a series of civil war for all her existence (even Hailè Selassie, the last emperor, to start his program of limited modernization was forced to litteraly fight against who oppose him when he was the prime minister equivalent) and second regarding winning to Italy, well first they need to find someone that give them modern weapons (OTL were the russian and more importantly the French, but here Rome and Paris seem to be on much more friendlier term) and an Italy with more 'imperial prestige' to defend and more importantly more resources to devolve on the job can 'simply' send more troops after Adua and defeat the Abyssinian.
Better note that while the OTL italian defeat was big, the Abyssian army was not in great fighting shape after due to the great loss and the stress of logistic (and the internal loyalties and division) and in the months between Adua and the signing of the peace treaty the italian army had reconquered the Abyssian territory lost aka the Tigrè

In the map the rich Ogaden has been officially assigned to Italy and this can create a lot of tension with Abyssinia
 
Must say this TL is quite the shining star. Hats off to you. A question I have to ask though is what exactly is the Spanish colonial policy right now. Is it like South America with Gold and Cross or shall it be more indecisive like Equatorial Guinea. Must say a Spanish conquistador with a gold breastplate holding a sword and cross seems like quite the colonial governor.
 

Deleted member 67076

Spanish Congo would be leagues better than the Free State if only because Leopold isn't obsessed with recouping his massive personal investment as soon as humanly possible.

I do hope Tippu Tips empire can survive, as can Sokoto and Bornu (with Ottoman Help) at least as buffer states. Zanzibar as well I think is potentially able to play the powers off each other and expand inland to Tanzania if it opens up a bit and allows foreign investment.
 
Mhm, a very rough arrangement with lots of potential for change but I like what I am seeing thus far. A Spanish Congo is certainly something I have never seen in a timeline (and very rarely on one-shot maps, most of which were made by myself XD), and I love the fact that the strength of the Ottomans has killed Cape-to-Cairo in its crib as well (and enabled a surviving Wituland with the potential to become huge) Also weren't the Dervishes in modern Somalia and eastern Ethiopia? Shouldn't it perhaps be the Madhists?

Well, I do like to have some variety in my timeline. A Spanish Congo was an interesting path to consider, and besides, all the delegates wouldn’t agree on any other nation. It was too much a risk for the basin to be held under a single Great Power, and the ‘trinket treaties’ signed by Leopold’s adventurers gave weight towards an un-partitioned Congo. On the other hand, any nation that holds the basin must be strong enough to defend the territory from foreign influence or bullying. That leaves Spain as the most likely candidate.

Besides that, I’ve always wanted to put Wituland to good use. Seems such a shame to not have a German-influenced Kenya or B(u)ganda, for once.

As for the Cape-to-Cairo, more’s the pity. The khedive of Egypt might plan for railways to Khartoum, but no more than that. A Cape-to-Dar Es Salaam though… that might be possible.

As for the Dervishes, well… for one, the OTL Mahdist revolt will not happen in the same way ITTL. Besides that, Sufi Islam was practiced widely across the Horn of Africa and the peoples of Sudan (or more accurately, the peoples who revolted) had their own tradition of whirling dances and Sufi mystics. Hence, the Dervish Caliphate.

Bear in mind, the OTL Mahdist Revolt also had a Sufi undercurrent and the grievances of the region was seen mostly through a mystical and messianic lens.

And, of course, last but not least: Ding-dong, the king is dead! Which old king? The wicked king.

A song for Leopold II's death:


One line is particularly appropriate...

He will be missed, not. :p

Ironically, some ITTL inhabitants would actually think of Leopold as a preferable alternative to the Spanish, once the latter starts to ground itself in Congo. I can see a few “what-if?” timelines be written by one or two folks who don’t know of Leopold’s true intentions.

Such is the case with untimely deaths and speculative fiction. :rolleyes:


So Italy will lose the battle of Adua as OTL. A modern, independent and powerful Abyssinia like Japan, it's an interesting novelty.

There is a lot of problems in this scenario…

[…]

In the map, the rich Ogaden has been officially assigned to Italy and this can create a lot of tension with Abyssinia

Lukedalton is mostly right. Ethiopia (or Abyssinia as it was called then) was a nation that has seen multiple battles and upsets due to its Deadly Decadent Court, and that might still be present ITTL and drag down industrial development to a crawl. On the other hand, the presence of an alternate Sudanese revolt could dramatically impact the country as it did IOTL, especially if battles between the two nations turn out differently. Alternate lessons from said battles also count.

As for Italy and Adwa, I am not showing my cards yet but there will be an alternate… connection between Ethiopia and the West, especially when/after the Dervish Caliphate rears its head. Watch this space.

Sooner or later Denmark will get a vast african colony.

What, the Danish West Indies is not enough?

Spanish Congo would be leagues better than the Free State if only because Leopold isn't obsessed with recouping his massive personal investment as soon as humanly possible.

Must say this TL is quite the shining star. Hats off to you. A question I have to ask though is what exactly is the Spanish colonial policy right now. Is it like South America with Gold and Cross or shall it be more indecisive like Equatorial Guinea. Must say a Spanish conquistador with a gold breastplate holding a sword and cross seems like quite the colonial governor.

Thanks!

Spanish colonial policy in the 1880’s is… idiosyncratic, to say the least. Places like Cuba and the Philippines are getting massive investment (which will bite Madrid in the ass during the 1890’s) while colonies such as Spanish Micronesia and Mbini are most often neglected, albeit with some missionary presence. With the inclusion of the Congo, the latter colony would be paid with much more attention as it is the only other place in Africa where Spanish ships can refuel and resupply on their own turf.

As for Spanish rule in Congo itself, that may be a bit tricky. You can’t go lower than Leopold II, but it be noted that every nearby colony also had brutal methods of punishment for pre-state Africans. What made the OTL Free State so horrendous was that Leopold ramped it all up to horrifying proportions for profit. The incoming Spanish may be kinder than the Belgians, but maybe not by much.

As for image, the conquistador look is long gone among colonial governors. Not good for the climate. I suspect the European press might see it that way, with the whole “journey to the unknown” and all.

I do hope Tippu Tips empire can survive, as can Sokoto and Bornu (with Ottoman Help) at least as buffer states. Zanzibar as well I think is potentially able to play the powers off each other and expand inland to Tanzania if it opens up a bit and allows foreign investment.

As for that… you’ll see. ;)

Portugal lost the diamonds of the Lunda. :(

But we have German Kenya and British Tanganyka. :)

Dammit! I knew I missed a few kingdoms on that map! I did say that every neighbouring Power will try to carve up the Congo borderlands, so the diamonds of the Lunda may yet go to Luanda.

As for East Africa, I always wanted to switch the respective Powers.


The Dervish Caliphate is up next, along with a crisis that would affect Sundaland and the world.
 
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Spain getting Congo can give to the Kingdom enough revenue to modernize and fight the rebels in both Cuba and Philippines...or be a poisoned gift as the resources to make the place profitable need to be found and in this period Spain was more or less broke; but if things goes at least moderately well an eventual Spanish-American war can be much more costly for the USA or Madrid can feel enough sure to decide to let go that troublespot for a reasonable price (difficult due to internal reason).
Still Spain getting a big piece of central africa mean that there will be less pressure to give her some influence in Morocco and France can glob the place in her totality
 
1880's: The Dervish Caliphate
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Sharif Ramadani, Across the Ages: A Social History of the Nile (Gulbahar: 2012)


…Though Islamic opposition to the Ottomans cropped up during the 19th century, it was in Sudan and Kordofan that the push against the established order boiled into its most twisted form.

By the end of the 1870’s, the Upper Nile seethed in discontent. For almost 50 years, the local population had chafed under the conditions imposed by their new Egyptian masters. Among other things, high taxes were imposed on crops and goods, locals were told to quarter stationed troops from the north, and the new Cairo-based court system shunned local Maliki and Sufi schools of thought in favour of foreign Hanafi jurisprudence. The administrative system was also biased against the Sudanese with Egyptian, Turkish, and European officials holding the plum jobs of governance. For non-Muslim peoples, slave raids became an everyday fear as raiders hunted down able-bodied men to be shipped off downstream and become the khedivate’s slave-soldiers.

What made all this the more galling was that, under decree, the actions of khedive Ahmad Rifaat were carried out under the name of the Ottoman sultan at Kostantiniyye, which implicated the empire that was supposed to act in the interests of its people. Not even modernization stemmed the resentment; the abolishment of the slave trade during the 1860’s and 70’s was well-intentioned, yet slave raids still continued and the action enraged the urban merchant class of Khartoum whom have become rich off the trade. Similarly, the decision to open up several military positons to accomplished Sudanese in 1871 backfired as locals complained even more on their discrimination for government employment.

While Egyptian rule did brought some positive effects such as infrastructural development and increased trade, the era of the Turkiyyah – as the Sudanese called it – was one that many found unjust and unrepresentative. As the decades went on, preachers and mystics (also known as Dervishes in the European press) began espousing their views on the unfair system. Invoking the rule of the early caliphs, they lectured on whether the locals should follow the faraway khedive and caliph who discriminates them, or create a purer system of governance close to home. Wandering from town to town, these sermons began attracting larger and larger crowds.

However, the straw that broke the camel’s back was the drought of 1880 and 1881, which impacted the dry region more severely than the rest of Egypt. As conditions approached true famine, the governor of Khartoum made the hair-raising decision to continue taxing the locals as usual. The ruling sent the Upper Nile aflame, with riots breaking out in Khartoum when the decree was announced on July 11th 1881. Elsewhere, village herders castigated tax officials and pelted them with rocks while entire communities uprooted themselves and travelled across the border.

As the chaos continued, a charismatic sheikh only known as Al-Zayn began coalescing a group of fanatic rebels. Under his leadership, scores of military posts were ransacked with sympathetic soldiers making off with hundreds of rifles and gunpowder. Calling for a new jihad, the sheikh compelled the locals to emigrate for Kordofan, where the pro-Egyptian ruling family was overturned during the drought and subsequent chaos. There, he preached for a new empire of Islam; a state that would, in his words, “vanquish the infidel Egyptians and Turks that have corrupted the True Faith.

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Artistic depiction of Al-Zayn, caliph of the Dervishes

Thus, the Dervish Caliphate was born.

From the new capital of El-Obeid, Al-Zayn and his appointed ministers began to craft a system of rule that would stymie the eastern Sahel for decades. Despite the predominance of Maliki and Sufi thought, laws that interpreted the Quran in a literalist manner were heavily applied. Religious strictures that emphasised piety was enforced and alternative interpretations silenced by force. Dissidents, whether they be farmers or imams, were often subject to harsh punishments or put to death by public beheadings. In this case, the coalescing state was more akin to Wahhabist Arabia than the early days of the Khulafa Al-Rashidun. Most controversially, the caliphate sanctioned enslavement of Muslims who refuse to accept the rule of its leader, leading to scores of dissident families fleeing to the nearby Abyssinia and particularly the sultanate of Darfur.

To say that Cairo was surprised by the insurrection in the south was an understatement, yet their response to the crisis also showed how misguided they were in thinking of the Dervishes as mere starving rebels. In March 1882, an expedition consisting of 4000 men was sent to establish peace around Khartoum and pacify Kordofan. However, the overconfidence of the army made them to establish camp near the Dervish-friendly town of Al-Jammalab, within sight of enemy forces without posting any sentries. Taking the chance, the Dervishes led a surprise midnight assault on the 7th of April and slaughtered the sleeping troops to a man, making off with even more guns and ammunition. After this, troops from Cairo would only be stationed south to reinforce the border of Egypt, blockading trade from the rogue state until it falls into disorder.

Al-Zayn had other plans. As the new caliph, he preached on territorial expansion to shore up his legitimacy and cast an eye on easy conquests for the state. While raids into Egypt continued, the caliphate mainly expanded southwards along the White Nile and across the Sahel to two other nearby polities: Abyssinia and Darfur. For months, scores of dissident families have fled to both states and the browbeaten Sultan Ibrahim of Darfur refused to recognize the legitimacy of his new neighbour. While noble, the turndown enraged Al-Zayn and made the sultanate the first to be invaded on September 18th, 1882. Huge swathes of territory became occupied under the rifle-equipped Dervish army of 45,000, yet the loose makeup of troops combined with inexperience allowed the sultanate to act on the defensive. Capitalizing on their weaknesses, the sultanate’s army managed to repel the invading forces from sacking the Darfuri capital of Al-Fashir on October 3rd. Within a few months, the Darfur forces closed their equipment gap as supplies and modern weapons were hauled from Tripolitania via the sultanate of Ouaddai (albeit in lower numbers).

By the dawn of 1883, the battle for Darfur had devolved into a stalemate. With the western Sahel proving a tough nut to crack, the caliphate turned to the mountains of Abyssinia. The Orthodox Christian nature of the state was enough of a justification to invade and Dervish forces were marching across the border by January 8th. However, the royal court at Magdala had long prepared for their new neighbour and had stocked up on rifles and gunnery from the British and French coastal bases. Still, the outcome of the First Battle of Gondar was very much in doubt as emperor Yohannes IV and his men fought 40,000 Dervishes on the hills surrounding the city.

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The First Battle of Gondar, depicted in the Abyssinian style


Despite enormous casualties, the Abyssinians won the day through a combination of superior tactics and home ground advantage. Despite this, Al-Zayn would unleash raid after raid on the empire, probing its defences and nabbing bits of border territory as soon as the court turned the other way. With the empire also expanding itself from its mountainous stronghold during the period, the constant demands of multiple expeditions and threats forced a new consensus among Yohannes and the fractious nobles below him: Abyssinia needed a strong army. A modern army. Emissaries were sent to the coastal European colonies and taxes were increased to acquire the necessary funds to purchase modernised weaponry.

But before the plan bore fruit, Al-Zayn launched a 50,000-man force to invade the mountain state again. With the royal court scrambling to prepare defences, the Second Battle of Gondar of May 13th 1885 became a close-fought affair, with victory on a knife-edge. However, the balance this time tipped in favour of the Dervishes as emperor Yohannes was caught sniping behind enemy lines in the afternoon. The man was captured and killed the very same day, his head lopped off to be brought back to El-Obaid as a trophy. Seeing their leader dead, the Abyssinian forces broke and fled, allowing the Dervishes to ransack the city and burn it to the ground.

As Gondar burned, another decision was made that would affect the future of the empire. On that very same year, the nations of Europe and the United states met in Brussels to discuss the fate of the African continent. In a landmark decision, the nation of Italy was awarded with influence over the Eritrean coast, as well as over parts of the Ogaden and Somaliland…

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Notes:

1. As you can see, the Mahdist Revolt is somewhat changed in regards to its origin. The grievances of the Sudanese are still present and an insurrection did occur, but Muhammad Ahmad is not in power ITTL (he is either killed in the initial chaos or become one of the Dervish Caliphate's harsh administrators) which allows for a different flow of events.

2. Besides this, Darfur is still a sultanate (though its currently hanging by a few threads). Al-Zubayr's business in ivory and slave trading did not go as well ITTL, though he did became an established man of trade in Khartoum.
 
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The shit hath hitith the fan... ith.

Ethiopia is in trouble, Egypt isn't very competent, and Darfur barely manages to cling onto existence. I am intrigued to find out how the region will develop.
 
Ouch, Yohannes die four years earlier and ITTL seem without a clear successor as he had not had time to nominate one just before die like OTL; Abyssinia will almost surely see a period of civil war and general chaos as a new Emperor is chosen aka get enough support to rule, while at the same time the Al-Zayn forces will continue to launch raids in their territory and harrass them, trying to take control of their kingdom.
As OTL internal division helped Italy in the initial stage of the local conquest, here things seem even more chaotic...allowing the italians to expand in the zone assigned (i expect as OTL protest by Egypt and the Ottoman but due to the general agreement and the rebellion, they will be ignored). On the other hand the Caliphate pose a serious and imminent danger for the zone and soon they will start raid against the italian position; this will cause a series of counterattacks that, at least in OTL, culminated in the occupation of Kassala in 1894; here i expect at least a more numerous military presence from the beginning due to the current developement.

Frankly the Ethiopians need help at this stage if they want to modernize, and from the map there are only one capable of giving them are Italy or/and France due to their controlling of the only real port of the zone (Djibouti and Massawa)
 
Spain getting Congo can give to the Kingdom enough revenue to modernize and fight the rebels in both Cuba and Philippines...or be a poisoned gift as the resources to make the place profitable need to be found and in this period Spain was more or less broke; but if things goes at least moderately well an eventual Spanish-American war can be much more costly for the USA or Madrid can feel enough sure to decide to let go that troublespot for a reasonable price (difficult due to internal reason).

Considering the strings that shall be pulled ITTL, Spain will have no problem making money off the Congo. With that said, the area that was awarded is vast; there shall be many eyes looking at taking a few resource-rich border territories before Madrid can put some troops on the ground.

As for the coming war, well... Cuba and the Philippines may seem 'less' than the Congo basin, but they were still places of investment and were respectively defended by the Spanish government (otherwise, they wouldn't have fought so determinedly for Sulu). An alternate Philippine Revolution or Spanish-American War may be coming, but Spain will not let go of its oldest holdings so easily.

Still Spain getting a big piece of central africa mean that there will be less pressure to give her some influence in Morocco and France can glob the place in her totality

Considering how Paris is given influence over the entire Western Sahara ITTL, this is possible. More likely, probable. But then again, there is a chance Morocco might play off Spain and France to get itself independent until (at most) the Great War.

The shit hath hitith the fan... ith.

Ethiopia is in trouble, Egypt isn't very competent, and Darfur barely manages to cling onto existence. I am intrigued to find out how the region will develop.

Ouch, Yohannes die four years earlier and ITTL seem without a clear successor as he had not had time to nominate one just before die like OTL; Abyssinia will almost surely see a period of civil war and general chaos as a new Emperor is chosen aka get enough support to rule, while at the same time the Al-Zayn forces will continue to launch raids in their territory and harrass them, trying to take control of their kingdom. [...] Frankly the Ethiopians need help at this stage if they want to modernize, and from the map there are only one capable of giving them are Italy or/and France due to their controlling of the only real port of the zone (Djibouti and Massawa)

It's still the 1880's, folks. Things were far from cheery in the Horn of Africa, and nothing ITTL altered anything significant in the region (well, apart from the Mahdi). The Dervish caliphate is 1/3 proto-Daesh and 2/3 original flavoring, and it still has a large amount of weapons and ammunition purloined from past battles and raids.

But the seeds of change have been sown. Without Al-Zubayr and no invasion by Egypt, Darfur as a whole is somewhat stronger ITTL which is why they were able to capitalize on Dervish inexperience to force a stalemate. Besides this, the Ethiopian court ITTL has formed a consensus on a modernized army as top priority, earlier than OTL. There will be a period of internal chaos with the emperor now dead, but whoever ascends the throne will have a clear agenda to focus on to counter the circling sharks.

As for Italy, they will be more wary around Eritrea ITTL. But for the moment, the Dervish caliphate is mostly focused on expanding up the Nile and into its Sahelian neighbors than going up the mountains onto the Red Sea coast. Once Al-Zayn sets his eyes there, though, all bets are off. As for Rome, they are more focused on trying to see if they could connect Eritrea and Somaliland together. As long as Italy gazes southward, the Dervishes won't try to cross the highlands.

As for who shall back Ethiopia... you'll see. ;)

Resource crisis update tomorrow, followed by a small interlude to close out the 1880's.
 
Considering the strings that shall be pulled ITTL, Spain will have no problem making money off the Congo. With that said, the area that was awarded is vast; there shall be many eyes looking at taking a few resource-rich border territories before Madrid can put some troops on the ground.

As for the coming war, well... Cuba and the Philippines may seem 'less' than the Congo basin, but they were still places of investment and were respectively defended by the Spanish government (otherwise, they wouldn't have fought so determinedly for Sulu). An alternate Philippine Revolution or Spanish-American War may be coming, but Spain will not let go of its oldest holdings so easily.
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The fact is that a much less cash strapped Spain can put more resources in building his military, making any war much less one-sided than OTL. For the other colonies, they were seen as the only reason Spain was still considered a power in Europe and so parting with them was out of the question...but with Congo in their control there can be some less pressure about it; sure it's not probable and the most likely outcome is Madrid fighting for keeping her possession

It's still the 1880's, folks. Things were far from cheery in the Horn of Africa, and nothing ITTL altered anything significant in the region (well, apart from the Mahdi). The Dervish caliphate is 1/3 proto-Daesh and 2/3 original flavoring, and it still has a large amount of weapons and ammunition purloined from past battles and raids.

But the seeds of change have been sown. Without Al-Zubayr and no invasion by Egypt, Darfur as a whole is somewhat stronger ITTL which is why they were able to capitalize on Dervish inexperience to force a stalemate. Besides this, the Ethiopian court ITTL has formed a consensus on a modernized army as top priority, earlier than OTL. There will be a period of internal chaos with the emperor now dead, but whoever ascends the throne will have a clear agenda to focus on to counter the circling sharks.

As for Italy, they will be more wary around Eritrea ITTL. But for the moment, the Dervish caliphate is mostly focused on expanding up the Nile and into its Sahelian neighbors than going up the mountains onto the Red Sea coast. Once Al-Zayn sets his eyes there, though, all bets are off. As for Rome, they are more focused on trying to see if they could connect Eritrea and Somaliland together. As long as Italy gazes southward, the Dervishes won't try to cross the highlands.

It's just that while Abyssinia pulling a Japan (or at least modernize more than OTL) it's very possible, i expect some serious Game of Throne type of action before that can really happen. Connecting the two zone of influence will be hard due to the presence of the French in Djibuti...and even if relations are better i doubt Paris will part away of that strategic position and the same can be said in being litteraly surrounded by the italians.
regarding Somaliland, on the map seem not assigned to anyone and it's much probable that the British will try to get their hand on that place, if only for strategic reason as Italy already control two side of the strait of Sicily (even if one barely) and now part of the Red Sea...giving them a lot of say on the stability of the route between UK and his asian possession. Even worse Rome seem too cozy with Paris making the entire situation much more dangerous
 
1880's: The Gutta-Percha Crisis
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Dietrich Tully; Red Rubber and the Great Powers (Bower: 2009)

While historical attention has been lavished on events such as the German Wars of Unification or the Congress of Vienna, it is upsetting that few papers have published that delve into the resource crisis that affected the world in the last 25 years before the Great War: The Gutta-Percha Crisis.

The use of tree sap in civilization has a long and storied history, dating back to the earliest civilizations of Mesopotamia and the Americas. Nevertheless, the use of the fluids from the palaquium gutta tree were still extraordinary for their time. Unlike most congealed tree saps which require sulphur and various chemicals to retain their final form, the latex of the palaquium species need only be treated in hot water in order to assume its moulded shape. This is due to the chemical composition of the sap: a specialised poly-isoprene molecule chain that gives the semi-solid substance malleability when applied with heat and pressure. Growing in the jungles of Southeast Asia, the local Malays, Dayaks, and other tribal groups prized the tree as its sap was utilized to augment native weaponry such as dagger handles and blowpipe openings. A strong grip was needed in battles and hunts, after all.

But the full potential of gutta-percha was not realized until the arrival of Europe into Southeast Asia in the mid-19th century. Upon its discovery in 1843 by British explorers on the colony of Singapore, the material was investigated heavily by the European Powers whom were interested in the adaptability of the substance. Shingles, drapes, picture cases and even gutta-percha lace was conceived as the malleability of the material allowed for greater and greater experimentation. In some cases, the invested objects became a part of popular history; a gutta-percha cane was used by Representative Preston Brooks in his famous attack of Senator Charles Sumner in the United States Senate in the run-up to the American Civil War. Insulted by the senator’s harsh words towards pro-slavery congressmen, Brooks used his cane to bash Sumner multiple times on the head in the Senate chamber until his weapon broke. He then used a broken half of the cane to bash Sumner even more.


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Lithograph of the brutal attack in the United States Senate. Many southerners accused the northern senator afterwards of lying about his injuries, stating that the gutta-percha cane is not strong enough to inflict deep wounds (it is).


However, the greatest use of gutta-percha during the 19th century was its application as an insulator for underwater telegraph cables. The British Empire was particularly concerned on communicating to their far-flung colonies, especially after the Indian Rebellion of 1857. However, almost every undersea telegraph line applied became unusable after a period of several years due to corrosion and breakage from underwater elements, especially after the coated wire insulation crumbled from moisture and pressure. Gutta-percha, on the other hand, retains its shape in water and is impermeable to moisture and stress, making it the perfect material for such a task. The first undersea cable with gutta-percha insulation was stretched in 1851 from Dover, England to Calais, France, opening a door that would never be shut again.

With long-distance communication a reality, nation after nation began using the substance to insulate their own lines. Telegraph cables were especially prioritised by the British, who used them to great effect in maintaining links with their colonies of Canada and South Africa, and from there to India and Malaya. The United States also saw value in the sap as it embarked on reconstructing the Deep South after their tumultuous Civil War; local legend has it that U.S officials even tried to establish their own colonies in Malaya for its gutta-percha resource, though no such evidence has ever been found.

By 1875, over 2.8 million kilograms of the sap were exported from the East Indies per year to the dockyards of London. To ensure their supply, Great Britain established a monopoly on the substance though their commercial links on the Malay Peninsula, often through promulgating trade deals with the rulers of local states. In fact, British profits from the trade rose to such an extent that the French Third Republic moved to establish their own plantations of gutta-percha in their Indochinese colonies in the 1880’s.


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Map of the planned ‘All Red Line’ British telegraph network, connecting the disparate parts of the Empire together. Work on the system would not be completed until 1904.


But while the trade enriched the western world, it also brought unimaginable consequences to the economies of Southeast Asia. Traditionally, gutta-percha was extracted through an exhaustive and wasteful process where groups of men would cut notches and scars into the trunk. As the sap dries quickly, more incisions would be made to keep the flow going. In most cases, the entire tree would be chopped down to obtain a comparatively miniscule amount from its wounds – around 300 to 400 grams at most, all before the liquid hardens inside the chopped wood. While a more efficient extraction process – mainly through pounding the raw wood and leaves to a pulp and soaking them in benzene and light petroleum – was investigated during the period, the method was highly experimental and required large amounts of liquid solvents which hindered extractive efficiency till the advent of the Great War.

As a result, demand for the substance steadily outpaced supply with market prices for gutta-percha rising more and more through the years. This made extracting the sap more lucrative to commissioners who charged higher and higher fees to local rubber tappers, making them more driven to cut down stretches of woodland to gather what latex they could find. Commissions were also given to Chinese settlers and foreign migrants, many of whom immigrated to the Malay Peninsula in massive numbers during the 19th century for work and a new life. To them, tapping latex from trees was a rewarding – if gruelling –source of alternative income to supplement their main work of tin mining or spice-planting.

With the horrors faced by other tropical colonies for wild rubber, perhaps the only positive of the trade was its decentralized nature and non-coercive extraction process. Back then, as it is today, locals and indigenous tribes engaged in tapping gutta-percha out of their own free will. Still, that did not mask the sheer damage the trade inflicted towards the environment. Whole swathes of lowland rainforest across the Peninsula were chopped down as local Malays, Chinese immigrants, and British prospectors hacked their way to find any palaquium trees left standing. Often, whole groves of the species would be cut down to harvest both the sap and the valuable wood that came with it. Similarly, many peasants in southern Siam, Borneo, Sumatra and Java joined in on the trade, leading to massive incursions into the regions’ forests. In the Kingdom of Sarawak alone, it is estimated that up to 3 million trees were cut down over a 30-year period.

Another effect of the trade was the disruption it caused to various groups of people. Both Malays and Dayaks often use gutta-percha trees as source material for their homes and longhouses, as the wood is resistant to most forms of pests and fungi. But with an increasing number of trees being felled, the wood needed to make planks and joints became more unavailable, forcing villages and tribes to use second-rate materials to build their dwellings. This became a particular problem for the Melanau subgroup, whom depend on palaquium timber for building their fortified tallhouses. During the late 1870’s to the 1890’s, an increasing number of local conflicts were caused by Melanau tribes coming to conflict with other subgroups for the valuable wood.


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Sarawakian Dayaks extracting sap from a fallen palaquium gutta specimen. Such actions would have brought a spike in local violence against various subgroups.


But perhaps the most damaging of all was the increased influence by the colonial Powers over the world’s tropics for the substance. Prior to the 1898 Bangkok Treaty, it was speculated that the abundance of gutta-percha in southern Siam influenced the royal court to increase its control over the northern Malay Peninsula. Similarly, the value of the latex as an insulator led the British to enforce greater and greater control over Malaya. In one case, the sultan of Kedah was forced to accept a British Advisor after several British Chinese traders were killed in an altercation involving the sale of gutta-percha. Conditions in the Dutch East Indies were no different as Batavia encroached onto native polities under the guise of protecting Dutch rubber firms and their supplies of sap.

But nothing would impact the market as the Conference of Brussels in 1885 did. The decision among the Western Powers to divide Africa among themselves was horrendous, but it also opened a new export market for the valuable material. Enforcing colonial rule means having secure communications to the respective colonial capital, and ultimately to the mother country. As such, telegraph cables became an important priority for many European nations for their new African colonies, making gutta-percha insulation one of the most important items of trade in the late 19th century. Demand soared like never before and by 1888, the price for a single pikul of the latex (about 60 kilograms) fluctuated from 400 to 500 Singapore Dollars.

But by the time of Brussels, some of the main centres of gutta-percha production in in Malaya were rapidly going dry. In 1875, Johor recorded its first decrease in local supply. Sap extraction in Selangor declined by half in 1882, followed by Kedah in 1883 and the Sungai Ujong princely states by 1884. Over in Borneo, Dutch exports from the Kapuas basin were steadily declining as most lowland groves have all been cut down by rapacious Malays and Dayaks. Java and lowland Sumatra experienced similar declines in local production during the period. In Sarawak, botanists grew so afraid for the species that Rajah Charles Brooke ordered for palaquium seedlings to be planted at his Astana in Kuching, saying that, “Our madness for the sap may cost us its extinction.

In time, the scarcity and high price for gutta-percha would lead the global push for wireless communication. But with most of Sundaland running low, worried commissioners looked for other places to satisfy short-term demand. The British casted an eye to the northeastern Malay states, which were yet untouched from the commercial insanity. Meanwhile, the Dutch began expanding their own horizons over the highlands of Sumatra and the Celebes, while Italy began viewing its colony of Brunei and Sabah with prospective eyes. The forests of Aceh quickly attracted many looks; until then, local extraction was halted as a side-effect of their war against the Dutch. And though the specialized poly-isoprene sap was not present in rubber trees and vines outside Southeast Asia (save for Brazil), everyone looked to Papua and the Congo…


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The regions of the world that shall be affected in the coming decades.


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Notes:

1. This aspect of the colonial era has been on my mind for a while, but it's only recently that I decided to research more about it. Despite looking up all information about this trade, it is still astounding to see just how much industrial Europe and the Americas depended on gutta-percha IOTL, and how much damage it brought to the local economies of Southeast Asia. In this timeline, the greater inter-connectedness of Sundaland would have brought regional scarcity somewhat earlier, thereby forcing Europe to search for alternative places to squeeze wild rubber.

EDIT:

2. Most of the information presented above is based IOTL, with the exception of Charles Brooke, the Sultan of Kedah and the aforementioned earlier scarcity of the latex.
 
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While I am heartened to see most liking the update, I am a bit worried at the lack of comments for it. Did I made too much of an infodump? :(
 
Not at all! I think it's more that we're enjoying the process of learning :)

This TL is one where less people would know the history behind it, so ''tis a journey of discovery for us...and intelligent comments are harder to make ;)
 
Not at all! I think it's more that we're enjoying the process of learning :)

This TL is one where less people would know the history behind it, so ''tis a journey of discovery for us...and intelligent comments are harder to make ;)

I had never heard of that particular trade, but I'm glad to have learnt.

Ahh. Well then, I hope I can be a good teacher to the goings-on down here.

I'm learning all about historical Southeast Asia as I go, so I wasn't sure if the update was a bit too much. If you want an elaboration or something to get clear, please don't hesitate to comment! :)
 
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