Of Rajahs and Hornbills: A timeline of Brooke Sarawak

[Hrvatskiwi]

It simply has to be Spain. The Thais don't even have proper control over their northern regions, let alone the ability to supply a colony that far away.

Spain is enough of a non-controversial middle power. To be honest, a Spanish Congo would be extremely similar to the Belgian Congo: strong Catholic mercenary presence, likely to be using exploitation to get dirt cheap resources for the metropole (possibly even more so than OTL, given that Spain is poorer than Belgium, although on the other hand, it wouldn't be the king's personal colony, which gives it more oversight).

 

[Essam]

I don't have facts to per se support my argument, but I for some reason feel any other state-power in this time period would be a less evil for the peoples of the Congo Basin than the personal company of Leopold of Belgium. Bonne chance, les Congolais.

 

[Al-numbers]

So, the powers that be give it to Spain because they are not threatening and essentially make it a buffer in the style of Siam?

It simply has to be Spain. The Thais don't even have proper control over their northern regions, let alone the ability to supply a colony that far away.

Correct!! Well, largely correct. Spain may be chosen as the colonizer for lack of any other viable options; no Great Power trusts the others well enough with such a vast and rich territory, and the only other Medium Power everyone respects (the Netherlands) has been shedding of it's African colonies since the 1870's.

Still, the French and Portuguese will try and see if they can get some parts of the Congo. The latter will definitely try and create some sort of Pink Map, if they can.

I don't have facts to per se support my argument, but I for some reason feel any other state-power in this time period would be a less evil for the peoples of the Congo Basin than the personal company of Leopold of Belgium. Bonne chance, les Congolais.

I think nearly any state-power would better than Leopold and his cronies, though the Spanish won't be kind to the Congolese once the rubber boom hits, and especially if the Philippines undergoes a revolution like OTL.

 

[Deleted member 67076]

You can't get worse than Leopold II. That said, Spain would be pretty bad. Perhaps it'd be less bad if the Glorious Revolution there continued. It was a very liberal government IIRC.

 

[Herr Frage]

You can't get worse than Leopold II. That said, Spain would be pretty bad. Perhaps it'd be less bad if the Glorious Revolution there continued. It was a very liberal government IIRC.

And I wonder how Spain will be affected by this? The butterflies are loose we may see Amedeo I in Spain for a long haul.

 

[Al-numbers]

You can't get worse than Leopold II. That said, Spain would be pretty bad. Perhaps it'd be less bad if the Glorious Revolution there continued. It was a very liberal government IIRC.

And I wonder how Spain will be affected by this? The butterflies are loose we may see Amedeo I in Spain for a long haul.

Actually, both the Glorious Revolution and Amedeo I have come and gone ITTL. By the time of the Sulu Affair during the 1870's, Spain was already facing it's OTL-ish troubles of the decade (second last paragraph). By now, the Restoration would have done it's course and Alfonso XII would be on the throne at Madrid, for better or worse.

Next week would focus on more updates, with a probable focus on a little state in North Africa.

 

[Herr Frage]

Actually, both the Glorious Revolution and Amedeo I have come and gone ITTL. By the time of the Sulu Affair during 1870's, Spain was already facing it's OTL-ish troubles of the decade (second last paragraph). By now, the Restoration would have done it's course and Alfonso XII would be on the throne at Madrid, for better or worse.

Next week would focus on more updates, with a probable focus on a little state in North Africa.

I that case could we get a longer reign for Alfonso XII? He was only 27 when he died OTL.

 

[Essam]

Next week would focus on more updates, with a probable focus on a little state in North Africa.

Egyptian Congo!

 

[Iserlohn]

Next week would focus on more updates, with a probable focus on a little state in North Africa.

There can only be two genuine options: Tunisia and Morocco. Both are in weird positions ITTL, with Tunisia being guaranteed to be on Italy's acquisition list, while Morocco is, well, Morocco

Anyways, I just love how this timeline develops. The fact that the Spaniards seem to be getting the Congo is definitely unique. I mean I did make a few maps with Spain getting the Congo but I've never seen a TL actually doing that (the closest I've seen was Spanish Algeria with a pre-1830 POD).

 

[Al-numbers]

International snippets: part 3/?

Charlie MacDonald, Strange States and Bizzare Borders, (weirdworld.postr.com, 2014)

Tunisia. Oh man, Tunisia…

If there is one thing that could be blamed for starting the clock to the Great War, it would be Tunisia. What happened there after the Russo-Turkish War literally kick-started the famous Great Power alliances that, in the next two and a half decades, dragged every European nation and their mother into the meat-grinder of the battlefields. It was the spark that lit the long fuse of rebellion and revolution. It was the issue that divided diplomats of whole empires. It is called ‘the Horrible Compromise’ in history books to this very day. If there was one thing a lot of alternate history folks like to change for the better, it would be Tunisia. You can’t put it any other way.

So, what happened?

Well, Tunisia after 1877 was a convoluted mess that was decades long in the making. Historically, the Beys of Tunis were the unofficial ‘rulers’ of the small region, governing in the name of the sultan in faraway Kostantiniyye. However, the rising tide of European industrialization, coupled with new ideas of governance and the rise of foreign contacts had stirred the latest Beys into trying their hand at foreign ideas. Foreign ideas that didn’t sit well with a lot of people.

The conservative imams, wily politicians, and penniless farmers bore the brunt of the blunt reforms, and they responded back with violence and intrigue. The fledgling reformist movement faced a never-ending cycle of revolts and corruption, and the European moneylenders increasingly offered unfavourable interest rates for more borrowed cash. It all got so bad, Tunisia declared itself full-out bankrupt by 1869. Since most of the debt was held by European creditors, the debt-owners of Italy, France and Great Britain established a commission to oversee the province’s finances, though it soon grew into an institution that literally controlled the region’s economy.

"...So just sign here and we’ll take care of everything."
"Everything?"
"Everything."​

From the start, the Kingdom of Italy held the most reins over the Tunisian Bey. Merchants from Naples, Sicily and Rome had been immigrating to the region for decades, and strong Italian communities had coalesced in the coastal cities of Bizerte and Tunis, with numerous businesses and financial concerns in tow. With the founding of Italian New Guinea in 1871, the government in Rome placed a high priority in grabbing new colonies, and everyone eyed Tunisia.

There was one snag though: Great Britain disapproved of having a single Power controlling the Straits of Sicily. The opening of the Suez Canal cut travel times to India by more than half, and London was damningly afraid of the new route being blocked. For years, the British and French empires had tried cooperating over the question, but more often than not both sides descended to rivalry and bickering at the end of every dialogue. Considering everyone and their mother’s rivalry over the East Indies, it’s kinda unsurprising to me to see the same patterns being repeated over North Africa.

Still, no one thought the end of the Russo-Turkish War would stir fresh new flames over the question. After the terms at Berlin and riding high on a wave of popularity, Sultan Abdul Hamid II decided to use the Ottoman victory to finally kick-start industrialization and reintegrate the far provinces into the Empire proper. Egypt quickly put a spanner in the works for that – the khedivate of Ahmad Rifaat Pasha was surprisingly popular, and his halt of Egyptian expansion past Khartoum freed up lots of cash for internal development – but the Nile state quickly worked out a deal which reaffirmed Abdul Hamid as paramount Caliph and continued Cairo's semi-autonomy. Also, both Egyptian and Ottoman financiers banded together to clear any remaining debts held by European expatriates, with a little help from the Russian indemnity.

"Wait, so does this mean we have to wear robes, now?"​

That scared Tunisia. It also scared Italy.

No one was under any illusions that a repeat of Egypt could take place with Tunisia; to say that the rural peasants and city conservatives hated the Beys was an understatement. The Beys themselves were seen off as being “idealistic, but out of touch” by Cairo and Kostantiniyye, and there were open whispers of them being scheduled for removal once Abdul Hamid flexes his power.

However, things soon got way out of hand. On the 21st of December 1878, an Arab raiding party crossed over into French Algeria, giving the colonial garrison a convenient excuse to assemble a force of 20,000 men to cross the border to counterattack. At the same time, the government in Rome was also assembling a 25,000 man force to take Tunisia before the Ottomans could reintegrate the region for good. However, that little news somehow got leaked to the Porte and Sultan Abdul Hamid quickly ramped up the Ottoman fleet because of that. With the tensions so high, it was almost a miracle that the foreign diplomats at Tunis all saw the coming armies and quickly screamed for a conference.

When all the assembled parties finally met at Cairo two months later, it was clear that every delegation aspired nothing less than the complete control of Tunisia. The Ottoman delegates stated that clearly, and so did the Italians and the French. Great Britain – wanting to keep the Sicily Straits open at any cost – went the two-face route, publicly supporting the Porte whilst silently opening discussions with Paris (it failed). A lot of different proposals were debated, and just as many were thrown out: A joint state, a dual protectorate, an autonomous region…

Considering some of the ideas, you’d think everyone in Cairo was just being a complete ass not to agree, and I won’t blame you. But combine the idea of a nation-state, conflicting interests, oversized ambitions, and the idea of ‘prestige’, and I think even the most “OK, sir.” diplomat would turn into a bull-headed loudmouth. One plan called for the entire region to be opened up to foreign competition ala. ‘Tunisia: Free Trade Zone’, but that was rejected by Italy and the Ottomans for allowing too much competition. Another involved a joint protectorate with two or three governor-generals (kinda like Andorra), but no one seemed to agree just which Power could claim part-sovereignty.

Then again, after a war like 1877 I'd think anyone wouldn't be thinking straight.​

And then someone suggested the compromise route.

To this day, no one was sure who actually stated the idea out loud first, but we do know how everyone’s reaction to the plan was. To sum it up, the compromise entails the Ottomans to have complete control of the Tunisian interior, replacing the governance of Sadik Bey with whatever suits the region. However, the coastal cities would all be parcelled out to whichever Power holds the most influence. For instance: Bizerte would go to Italy, Tunis to the Ottomans and so on and so forth, with some cities going to France as a consolation prize.

The Ottomans were angered. The British were shocked. The French were incensed. The Italians, outraged. Every side voiced their objections to the plan. However, as time went by, more and more delagates began looking back at the compromise. Despite its faults, the plan does ensure more than one Power watching over the Sicily Straits, and it does ensure Italian coastal businesses being protected (though all the immigrant farmers would be left in the dust). The Ottomans would still get the lion’s share of Tunisia, and France… well, at least they have Algeria.

But it was an incredibly bitter pill to swallow, especially for the Ottomans and the Italians. Sultan Abdul Hamid II wanted Tunisia lock, stock, and barrel, and so did Italy. Both sides screamed against the plan, and the Andorra-like proposal was even brought up as an alternative. London, however, didn’t want an Italian-French or Italian-Ottoman controlled Mediterranean that could hamper their India-Far East route and the latter plan was scrapped at the conference floor. When the final details were put to motion, a faction of Italian delegates even threatened to walk out altogether (and some actually did). But on March 13 1879, the Treaty of Cairo was officially signed and the Horrible Compromise put to work accordingly.

Oh God, even looking at my terrible edits I can see just how bad this will be.​

This left a deeeeeep impression on all the attendees. Italian businessmen and colonial advocates felt extremely cheated from what was certain to be a ‘promised’ colony, and the press in Rome were damn pissed off about it for the next several months. France was also irked at being side-lined by the events in Cairo and quickly began ramping up their expansion deep into the Western Saharan regions. As for the Ottomans; The reaction among the Kostantiniyye literati was a mixture of apprehension and disgust at the foreign Powers creating a “...stolen victory” as one newspaper put it, and there were many that wanted the empire to keep itself neutral and out of future foreign shenanigans. Even the British Parliament was in many minds about the issue with many questioning whether heightened European animosity was worth all the free trade.

And now you can basically see how the Great War will pan out. Everyone realized that they were nothing on their own, but with allies on their side they could bargain for a better deal.

Brilliant. Simply brilliant.

____________________

Notes:

1) Instead of OTL Khedive Ismail, the soverign leader of TTL's Egypt is Ahmad Rifaat Pasha, who never had his fatal car float accident.

2) It should be noted that even though France had Tunisia as a protectorate IOTL, there was a lot of Italian businessmen and immigrants establishing themselves there too.

 

[Mwex]

Poor Tunisia, i think that it was better to create a free trade zone instead of this horrible mess.

 

[Herr Frage]

Poor Tunisia, i think that it was better to create a free trade zone instead of this horrible mess.

No attendant nation was interested in what was better. They were interested in what they wanted.

So Italy is angry at France and Britain? And the Ottomans are feeling antiWestern in general? And Andorra is still a good country for skiing?

 

[Gian]

I wanted Tunisia to be a full Italian possession, so maybe come WWI, Italy might use the war to seize it all.

 

[lukedalton]

Great update...and a 'perfect' diplomatic solution aka if you can't make angry just one nation, it's better get angry all of them

 

[Archangel]

Keep it up, sketchdoodle!

 

[Herr Frage]

If Italy ends up at war with Britain that would be a chance for Sarawak to carve off a portion of Italian Sabah. Possibly take it all. Early to forecast, but colonial politics must keep the mother country politics in mind.

Still for the moment unless the Italians in Sabah pull an epic fail, I think Sarawk will focus on tightening the tourniquet on Brunei for expansion policy.

 

[Al-numbers]

I that case could we get a longer reign for Alfonso XII? He was only 27 when he died OTL.

We might, though I am a bit fuzzy on how his rule and personality particularly impacted Spain. I know about the technological advancements, but I don't know how he really felt or the changing times.

Egyptian Congo!

May the Khedivate rule from the Pyramids to the Nzere!

There can only be two genuine options: Tunisia and Morocco. Both are in weird positions ITTL, with Tunisia being guaranteed to be on Italy's acquisition list, while Morocco is, well, Morocco

Not necessarily, especially if the British has discovered just how convenient the Suez Canal is to their crown jewel, India. As for Morocco, that's another country I'm fuzzy about, but it wouldn't be too much to say the Alaouite dynasty is still facing European pressure like OTL. With a stronger Ottoman empire, though, the ruling family might just have a lifeline if they can play their cards.

Anyways, I just love how this timeline develops. The fact that the Spaniards seem to be getting the Congo is definitely unique. I mean I did make a few maps with Spain getting the Congo but I've never seen a TL actually doing that (the closest I've seen was Spanish Algeria with a pre-1830 POD).

Thanks! And the idea of the Congo passing to another Power was an idea I've had since the very beginning, though I also indulged on the whole region being partitioned instead of falling entirely to Leopold II. I still have an itch for that idea even now; Spain may get the Congo, but not even they will know just how much they'll get.

Poor Tunisia, i think that it was better to create a free trade zone instead of this horrible mess.

No attendant nation was interested in what was better. They were interested in what they wanted.

So Italy is angry at France and Britain? And the Ottomans are feeling antiWestern in general? And Andorra is still a good country for skiing?

And a Free Trade Zone would definitely arouse suspicion from the Ottoman delegates, whom have chafed under the Capitulations and know just how laws in such a zone could be augmented to suit European traders instead of being fair.

In a nutshell, Italy is mad at France for wanting the same thing it does, but are more angry at the Ottomans and the British for the whole Compromise in general. The French are disgruntled and still drool over the Empire, but they also know there are bigger pickings out there to feel totally bad about it. The Ottomans are generally feeling sore at everyone over the handover of Bizerte and the other port cities, though Tunis is thankfully theirs to keep for the moment.

And yes, Andorra is still good for skiing.

I wanted Tunisia to be a full Italian possession, so maybe come WWI, Italy might use the war to seize it all.

It's not 1900 yet, and a lot can happen to Italy and everyone else till then!

Great update...and a 'perfect' diplomatic solution aka if you can't make angry just one nation, it's better get angry all of them

Question is: is it worth it to get everyone and their mother angry at what happened? Worth it to get all angry enough to start forming clubs and alliances?

If Italy ends up at war with Britain that would be a chance for Sarawak to carve off a portion of Italian Sabah. Possibly take it all. Early to forecast, but colonial politics must keep the mother country politics in mind.

Still for the moment unless the Italians in Sabah pull an epic fail, I think Sarawk will focus on tightening the tourniquet on Brunei for expansion policy.

Sarawak may not have to wait that long. Singapore and Batavia are a bit apprehensive of a new player in the colonial game, and they all might make the most of squeezing Italian Sabah out before the latter manages to get a grip on things.

As for Brunei... the abyss is standing before the sultanate, and everyone knows that. The question now is, what will be the sultan's last actions?

Keep it up, sketchdoodle!

Thanks!

One final update before we return to Malaya and Borneo. Well, maybe Borneo first, but not in the way you all think!

 

[lukedalton]

Question is: is it worth it to get everyone and their mother angry at what happened? Worth it to get all angry enough to start forming clubs and alliances?

With hindsight (and with what you are implying) surely not but ITTL the diplomats had tried to get the best deal out of a bad situation so to stop a possible war in the immediate.
Basically ITTL this compromise will be the textbook example of 'law of inentended consequences'

 

[Deleted member 67076]

Curious to see how the alliances will go now. Italy and France and Russia against Britain and the Ottomans? But that still leaves Germany and Austria and the o
beta tier Europan nations up in the air.

Hm...

 

[Herr Frage]

As for Brunei... the abyss is standing before the sultanate, and everyone knows that. The question now is, what will be the sultan's last actions?

Epic pool party with all you can eat chicken wings and live band?