Of Rajahs and Hornbills: A timeline of Brooke Sarawak
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Is Bakar's hold on power secure enough to survive another extended absence? I don't think he has sufficient dynastic legitimacy - the "constitution" of the Johore state is far too fluid.
No. Thank you for reading through and through.
In a way, yes and no. IOTL, Abu Bakar went on to conduct several European trips (and a few to the Far East) from the 1860's to the 1890's, leaving the kingdom's administration in the hands of loyal and capable advisers. ITTL, that still hasn't changed, so as long as Abu Bakar doesn't go for a year longer or more, Johor will be in good hands.
On the flipside, we haven't seen much of the kingdom's conservatives and traditionalists who are aggravated at the monarch being such a European-lover, both IOTL and ITTL. Besides that, we haven't learned much about Johor's neighbors just yet, and considering that the 1870's were the years when British colonization accelerated in Malaya, some of them might try to drag in the sultanate into their mess. Abu Bakar might go on a trip, but there is no chance his kingdom will be peaceful when he returns.
That's a good answer. So he does have enough "grip".
Great update and on another note the Aceh sultanate has always had a particular interest for me and their relationship with the Ottomans.
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So consider me subscribed.
1877: The Russo-Turkish War
I give up. Writing wars is not for me. Also, sorry for being gone for so long
Charlie MacDonald, Strange States and Bizzare Borders, (weirdworld.postr.com, 2014)
Auuugh, since you folks really want me to do it... fine. The Russo-Turkish War.
Where do I even begin?
Oh I know! how about I talk for only a few paragraphs about the war and focus instead on the aftermath of said war? Okay!!
Hey, this is Stange States and Bizzare Borders, people! Check the headline. If you really want to discuss about the Ottomans and the Tsar, go to Empires.com and have your fun over there. Besides, I often find the actions of the people and states related to the war far more interesting than the war itself. Also, with this I can finally talk about South East Asia again! Apparently the rulers over there are a lot more attentive than everybody thought.
But first, to the war that started it all. So the Ottoman Empire in early 1877 was a bit between a rock and a hard place. Serbia had declared war a year earlier and paid for it with a mountain of dead soldiers and the sultan's armies marching towards Belgrade. Alarmed by the violence and goaded by the sensational reports of Christian massacres in the Balkans, the Great Powers of Europe intervened to stop the war and force a conference to resolve it at Constantinople.
Prior to the event, there was a great deal of scepticism among the Turks that whatever results that shall come from the meeting won't be fair to them. Sure enough, when all the delegates assembled, the resulting talks were all centered on supporting the Serbs and Bulgarians at the expense of the Porte's power in Rumelia. In the end, the Constantinople Conference was a total failure and - noticing the wreckage from the meeting, and with anti-Ottoman sentiment running high in Europe - Russia took the opportunity to secretly carve up the Balkans under its own agenda. After preparing themselves and signing a treaty that promised Austria-Hungary to remain neutral, and with another one with Romania that had the latter contribute troops and supplies, St. Petersburg finally declared war on the 1st of April, 1877.
...why can't they call it the April Fools War?
Seriously, some of the things that came out of it are downright bizarre. Though now it's out there, I do wanna see a mud brawl between Octopus!Russia with Hungary and Turkey...
At first, the outcome was a bit unclear. Russia had the largest army in Europe, but the Ottomans had the home advantage. After a few battles which saw Russia intrude into the Plevna and Lovech regions, the Ottomans settled for an offensive which quickly reversed the trend, halting the invasion force at the gates of Sofia. Wanting to keep the enemy outstretched, the Russians also attacked the Ottomans through the Caucasus Mountains in the east. Though initially successful, the Ottomans also went for an offensive and successfully held back an attack on the eastern city of Kars.
By the end of July, the Porte's troops had beaten back the Russian force to the borders of the Danube while the troops of the Eastern Front were bombing what few border fortresses were still held by the enemy. At this point, the Great Bear's monetary markets simply collapsed as investors lost confidence in St. Petersburg's handing of the battles and rising casualties. By early August, Tsar Alexander's government found itself unable to pay for the war that it had started. Too few ground troops and sheer incompetence cost the Russian commanders what little advantage they had while the Ottomans still had greater-than-average troop numbers and supplies in the region due to their Pashas preparing for the war since the beginning of the year.
Also, I should really say this at this point that the Russians went into this ENTIRE affair with a war plan that pretty much counted on the Ottomans being "Ah, it's the Russians! Let's be passive and meekly defensive towards them as they are marching towards us!"
Uh. What.
Does that look passive and defensive to you!?
I may be just an Internet historian but dudes, the Turks were on their way to Serbia’s capital before Europe stopped them! How on earth did they think the Porte would be just "passively defensive"? But I digress. Maybe they do have a reason for hinging on their plan and, as a result, placed too few troops on the ground to handle with the situation. That's not to say the Ottomans themselves didn't make a few mistakes; the sheer incompetence of the Turks during the initial battles was just... astounding. But they had the home advantage, the men, and the supplies to turn round their mistakes into victories, while Russia pretty much bungled it through and through. The corruption of the Russian commanders was certainly eyebrow-raising for the time.
As the Ottomans were marching the enemy back to the border and as St. Petersburg ordered for more troops to be sent (Romania nearly went mad at this! over 20,000 volunteer troops already and more than half of them dead), the Great Powers finally intervened. Britain and Germany argued for a conference, and everyone assembled together at Berlin to talk each other out.
Told ya I'll talk the war for only a few paragraphs.
Karpal Singh, The Greatest Wars of the 19th Century, (Bridgeworth Press: 1984)
...The final settlement that came out from the Berlin Conference was a surprisingly moderate one, though the feelings of the delegates were very much divergent on the matter.
The Ottoman Empire made no gains, although it's territorial sovereignty and integrity was formally assured by the rest of the delegates, including a grudging Russia. In addition, Constantinople would be paid an indemnity by St. Petersburg for the damages done as well as a promise by the latter to not interfere in her internal affairs. Nevertheless, Serbia, Romania and Montenegro were declared formally independent countries with Ottoman influence in each being finished for good. Furthermore, a commission for the well-being of the Christian population in Rumelia was also enacted by the delegates; one that Russia was allowed to join.
Despite the moderate terms, there was a general feeling of disappointment among the Russian delegates. The Russian Empire had lost decisively in the war and – in addition to paying their enemies an enormous sum – also lost significant support among the Balkan nations. The Serbs, Romanians and Montenegrins were aware that their freedom was gained by international consensus rather than Tsarist endorsement, and Romania was bitter that it had sacrificed thousands of troops for Russia and getting nothing in return.
The Ottomans, on the other hand, were delighted at their return to being among the World Powers, though they will soon discover the consequences of their newfound status soon enough. The victory was held far and wide as proof of the success of the Tanzimat reforms while the indemnity would come much to Constantinople's aid during the following industrialization period. However, there was a certain feeling on the Turkish side that more could have been done to encapsulate their success, such as a further resolving of the multi-ethnic Caucasus region in the Empire's eastern flank.
There was also a more subtle effect that occurred as a result of the conference: it woke up Continental Europe to Ottoman power as a force against global European expansion.
By then, it was no secret that many Muslim sultanates around the world looked to the Ottomans as a symbol of strength and protection, and there were many that asked the Porte to intervene on their behalf against foreign interests. For France and Italy, who eyed the Ottoman beyliks of North Africa, and the Netherlands and Great Britain – currently expanding themselves in the East Indies, an ascending Constantinople would go against their economic and political interests. There is also an undercurrent of unease over the fact of Muslims being triumphant against Christians.
In time, this unease and apprehension would play a major part in the following colonial struggles across Africa and Asia...
--------------------
Footnotes:
1) IOTL, the Russo-Turkish War of 1877 resulted in a loss for the Ottomans and marked the beginning of the Empire's dismemberment by foreign powers. ITTL, they won.
2) Why yes, the last two paragraphs is foreshadowing. *wink wink. nudge nudge*
Charlie MacDonald, Strange States and Bizzare Borders, (weirdworld.postr.com, 2014)
Auuugh, since you folks really want me to do it... fine. The Russo-Turkish War.
Where do I even begin?
Oh I know! how about I talk for only a few paragraphs about the war and focus instead on the aftermath of said war? Okay!!
Hey, this is Stange States and Bizzare Borders, people! Check the headline. If you really want to discuss about the Ottomans and the Tsar, go to Empires.com and have your fun over there. Besides, I often find the actions of the people and states related to the war far more interesting than the war itself. Also, with this I can finally talk about South East Asia again! Apparently the rulers over there are a lot more attentive than everybody thought.
But first, to the war that started it all. So the Ottoman Empire in early 1877 was a bit between a rock and a hard place. Serbia had declared war a year earlier and paid for it with a mountain of dead soldiers and the sultan's armies marching towards Belgrade. Alarmed by the violence and goaded by the sensational reports of Christian massacres in the Balkans, the Great Powers of Europe intervened to stop the war and force a conference to resolve it at Constantinople.
Prior to the event, there was a great deal of scepticism among the Turks that whatever results that shall come from the meeting won't be fair to them. Sure enough, when all the delegates assembled, the resulting talks were all centered on supporting the Serbs and Bulgarians at the expense of the Porte's power in Rumelia. In the end, the Constantinople Conference was a total failure and - noticing the wreckage from the meeting, and with anti-Ottoman sentiment running high in Europe - Russia took the opportunity to secretly carve up the Balkans under its own agenda. After preparing themselves and signing a treaty that promised Austria-Hungary to remain neutral, and with another one with Romania that had the latter contribute troops and supplies, St. Petersburg finally declared war on the 1st of April, 1877.
...why can't they call it the April Fools War?
Seriously, some of the things that came out of it are downright bizarre. Though now it's out there, I do wanna see a mud brawl between Octopus!Russia with Hungary and Turkey...
At first, the outcome was a bit unclear. Russia had the largest army in Europe, but the Ottomans had the home advantage. After a few battles which saw Russia intrude into the Plevna and Lovech regions, the Ottomans settled for an offensive which quickly reversed the trend, halting the invasion force at the gates of Sofia. Wanting to keep the enemy outstretched, the Russians also attacked the Ottomans through the Caucasus Mountains in the east. Though initially successful, the Ottomans also went for an offensive and successfully held back an attack on the eastern city of Kars.
By the end of July, the Porte's troops had beaten back the Russian force to the borders of the Danube while the troops of the Eastern Front were bombing what few border fortresses were still held by the enemy. At this point, the Great Bear's monetary markets simply collapsed as investors lost confidence in St. Petersburg's handing of the battles and rising casualties. By early August, Tsar Alexander's government found itself unable to pay for the war that it had started. Too few ground troops and sheer incompetence cost the Russian commanders what little advantage they had while the Ottomans still had greater-than-average troop numbers and supplies in the region due to their Pashas preparing for the war since the beginning of the year.
Also, I should really say this at this point that the Russians went into this ENTIRE affair with a war plan that pretty much counted on the Ottomans being "Ah, it's the Russians! Let's be passive and meekly defensive towards them as they are marching towards us!"
Uh. What.
Does that look passive and defensive to you!?
I may be just an Internet historian but dudes, the Turks were on their way to Serbia’s capital before Europe stopped them! How on earth did they think the Porte would be just "passively defensive"? But I digress. Maybe they do have a reason for hinging on their plan and, as a result, placed too few troops on the ground to handle with the situation. That's not to say the Ottomans themselves didn't make a few mistakes; the sheer incompetence of the Turks during the initial battles was just... astounding. But they had the home advantage, the men, and the supplies to turn round their mistakes into victories, while Russia pretty much bungled it through and through. The corruption of the Russian commanders was certainly eyebrow-raising for the time.
As the Ottomans were marching the enemy back to the border and as St. Petersburg ordered for more troops to be sent (Romania nearly went mad at this! over 20,000 volunteer troops already and more than half of them dead), the Great Powers finally intervened. Britain and Germany argued for a conference, and everyone assembled together at Berlin to talk each other out.
Told ya I'll talk the war for only a few paragraphs.
**********
Karpal Singh, The Greatest Wars of the 19th Century, (Bridgeworth Press: 1984)
...The final settlement that came out from the Berlin Conference was a surprisingly moderate one, though the feelings of the delegates were very much divergent on the matter.
The Ottoman Empire made no gains, although it's territorial sovereignty and integrity was formally assured by the rest of the delegates, including a grudging Russia. In addition, Constantinople would be paid an indemnity by St. Petersburg for the damages done as well as a promise by the latter to not interfere in her internal affairs. Nevertheless, Serbia, Romania and Montenegro were declared formally independent countries with Ottoman influence in each being finished for good. Furthermore, a commission for the well-being of the Christian population in Rumelia was also enacted by the delegates; one that Russia was allowed to join.
Despite the moderate terms, there was a general feeling of disappointment among the Russian delegates. The Russian Empire had lost decisively in the war and – in addition to paying their enemies an enormous sum – also lost significant support among the Balkan nations. The Serbs, Romanians and Montenegrins were aware that their freedom was gained by international consensus rather than Tsarist endorsement, and Romania was bitter that it had sacrificed thousands of troops for Russia and getting nothing in return.
The Ottomans, on the other hand, were delighted at their return to being among the World Powers, though they will soon discover the consequences of their newfound status soon enough. The victory was held far and wide as proof of the success of the Tanzimat reforms while the indemnity would come much to Constantinople's aid during the following industrialization period. However, there was a certain feeling on the Turkish side that more could have been done to encapsulate their success, such as a further resolving of the multi-ethnic Caucasus region in the Empire's eastern flank.
There was also a more subtle effect that occurred as a result of the conference: it woke up Continental Europe to Ottoman power as a force against global European expansion.
By then, it was no secret that many Muslim sultanates around the world looked to the Ottomans as a symbol of strength and protection, and there were many that asked the Porte to intervene on their behalf against foreign interests. For France and Italy, who eyed the Ottoman beyliks of North Africa, and the Netherlands and Great Britain – currently expanding themselves in the East Indies, an ascending Constantinople would go against their economic and political interests. There is also an undercurrent of unease over the fact of Muslims being triumphant against Christians.
In time, this unease and apprehension would play a major part in the following colonial struggles across Africa and Asia...
--------------------
Footnotes:
1) IOTL, the Russo-Turkish War of 1877 resulted in a loss for the Ottomans and marked the beginning of the Empire's dismemberment by foreign powers. ITTL, they won.
2) Why yes, the last two paragraphs is foreshadowing. *wink wink. nudge nudge*
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Oh dear. While Turks take a well won victory now and get some breathing room, this could lead to a stronger Russia. Also it looks like France and Italy might be getting together with the Tsar in the near term to discuss how to put the 'Porte' in place.
The Ottoman sickman has gotten out of bed, but now he is in the ring and facing far more potent foes.
The Ottoman sickman has gotten out of bed, but now he is in the ring and facing far more potent foes.
A resurgent Ottoman Empire. Nice.
While you're at it, how about butterflying to have Qing China beat France in 1885? The OTL Sino-French War did see some significant Chinese victories in Taiwan and Vietnam, much to the embarrassment of the French, so maybe you could exploit the potential butterflies there.
After that, maybe have Empress Dowager Cixi die before 1890, so that Emperor Guangxu would be more in charge, and crucial funds needed for the Beiyang Navy's ammunition would not be siphoned off to build her Summer Palace to celebrate her would-be 60th birthday in 1894.
This would at least put China on a stalemate with Japan when war breaks out a decade later. Japan would still have the upper hand due to a headstart in Westernization and more disciplined and less corrupt, but China would still manage to hold out on its own, leading to a European power (not Russia ITL it would seem) intervening for a negotiated settlement. Though mainly Tokyo frowning and Beijing chuffed to bits.
And if you're ambitious, have a 3-way Battle Royale in the Russo-Sino-Japanese War of 1904-05. With a resurgent China and a desperate Japan both eager to find a punching bag to flex their newfound muscles. Add in the Ottomans (with their Navy in SE Asia by now intercepting the Russian Baltic Fleet) for a 4-way fight.
Of course, just as a resurgent Ottoman Empire help boost Muslim pride in SE Asia, a resurgent China would have the same effect on the growing Chinese immigrant community in SE Asia, including Sarawak. The Brookes would have a lot of work to do to keep both communities loyal.
While you're at it, how about butterflying to have Qing China beat France in 1885? The OTL Sino-French War did see some significant Chinese victories in Taiwan and Vietnam, much to the embarrassment of the French, so maybe you could exploit the potential butterflies there.
After that, maybe have Empress Dowager Cixi die before 1890, so that Emperor Guangxu would be more in charge, and crucial funds needed for the Beiyang Navy's ammunition would not be siphoned off to build her Summer Palace to celebrate her would-be 60th birthday in 1894.
This would at least put China on a stalemate with Japan when war breaks out a decade later. Japan would still have the upper hand due to a headstart in Westernization and more disciplined and less corrupt, but China would still manage to hold out on its own, leading to a European power (not Russia ITL it would seem) intervening for a negotiated settlement. Though mainly Tokyo frowning and Beijing chuffed to bits.
And if you're ambitious, have a 3-way Battle Royale in the Russo-Sino-Japanese War of 1904-05. With a resurgent China and a desperate Japan both eager to find a punching bag to flex their newfound muscles. Add in the Ottomans (with their Navy in SE Asia by now intercepting the Russian Baltic Fleet) for a 4-way fight.
Of course, just as a resurgent Ottoman Empire help boost Muslim pride in SE Asia, a resurgent China would have the same effect on the growing Chinese immigrant community in SE Asia, including Sarawak. The Brookes would have a lot of work to do to keep both communities loyal.
So the Europeans identify the Ottomans as an anti-colonial force? This could be problematic for the Ottomans in the long run as you seem to suggest, but there is no doubt that surviving Muslim polities in East Asia and further afield are going to be inspired by the Ottoman victory. I wonder if in the long run it will be seen as Tsushima was in Asia in OTL...
True. On the other hand, the Ottomans now have a good reason to industrialize and become stronger due to having more overt enemies ITTL. Britain would also want a powerful bulwark against Russian expansion in the Balkans, though this will put them in conflict with Constantinople hearing the pleas of far-flung sultanates. France and Italy might conspire together with the Tsar, but both of them will have to sort out their own claims over the world first, some of them overlapping a great deal (looking at you, Tunisia
).There's going to be a conflict of interest among the European Powers in the coming years, and it will force many of them to take unexpected paths.
Well, not necessarily anti-colonial but certainly pro-sultanate. Abu Bakar's visit and the voyage of the Acehnese emissaries have already shown Europe that some polities are still powerful enough to chart their own course even in the face of colonialism. Should they now visit the Ottomans, there will be a good chance that Sultan Abdul Hamid might hear their pleas and actually act on them, a fact that has Netherlands worried sick.
In the long-run, the Ottoman victory might actually be taken somewhat differently in certain world regions. In North Africa and the East Indies, it marked Islam's return to relevancy on the world stage. For Sub-Saharan Africa and East Asia, it's just another Western Power rising to dominate everyone else. Also, I should note that there are still many independent sultanates out there in the world during this time period, and many of them would want to be the first to receive Ottoman aid or protection. Constantinople might find itself facing a Noah's Deluge of pleas in the next few years and not knowing where to start!
Possible, though I might need to research some more to work out the details. As far as I know, the Sino-French War was one war that could really go either way, especially with the British closing their Eastern ports to French shipping and all. Even a stalemate alone can change European views of China in the short-run.
As for the country itself, I'm still vacillating on what to do with Cixi and Guangxu. While it's true that having the Empress butterflied would be better overall for China, having Guangxu reign still wouldn't solve the enormous regionalism that plagued the Empire, or the rivalry between the army and navy, which was already regionalist in itself to begin with. Perhaps Guangxu could unify the navy into a single fighting fleet, but doing the same to the army would just open a Pandora's Box that could end the empire early. And above all, there is the Qing court to consider.
As for Japan, they will play a role both in East Asia and in Southeast Asia. However, as with Europe, Tokyo ITTL might find itself walking down unexpected paths.
And if you're ambitious, have a 3-way Battle Royale in the Russo-Sino-Japanese War of 1904-05. With a resurgent China and a desperate Japan both eager to find a punching bag to flex their newfound muscles. Add in the Ottomans (with their Navy in SE Asia by now intercepting the Russian Baltic Fleet) for a 4-way fight.
Of course, just as a resurgent Ottoman Empire help boost Muslim pride in SE Asia, a resurgent China would have the same effect on the growing Chinese immigrant community in SE Asia, including Sarawak. The Brookes would have a lot of work to do to keep both communities loyal.
Ahh... this will be when things get a little screwy. Both China and the Ottomans will try and influence the East Indies to their design, but they would also face several stumbling blocks both sides never really expected.
For one, the Ottomans might come out more powerful ITTL, but I don't think London and Amsterdam would approve of them stationing their fleet out in the East Indies. In fact, I wonder if Great Britain and the Netherlands would try to misdirect the Ottomans to focus more on North Africa and the Sahara rather than the East. Barring the slave trade, containment in Africa could be preferable than influence in Sumatra.
For another, Southeast Asia is a region that has seen Chinese, Indian and Arabian migration for centuries. Just look at the Lanfang Republic. The cultural mixing alone is enough to raise eyebrows in Kostantiniyye, and the arrival of the British and the Dutch had also exposed new ideas to the native populace. By this point, Chinese revival societies would already start establishing themselves in Penang and Singapore, clamoring for political reform back home as much as economic reform. The Malays might be more amendable to Ottoman aid, but the more traditional folks would want the traditional Hindu-Bhuddist Adat to be enshrined and protected.
As for Sarawak, with it's greater intercultural mixing, the less said the better...
Well, sure the Ottoman had won the war and this mean a great boost on morale and, more or less, territorial integrity mantained (except for the independence of much of their European vassals) and frankly the monetary reparations will help to rebuild, modernize and repay the debt with the europeans.
But it's better not making too much fuss about the resurgence of the Porte at this stage because 'it's not all gold what's shine'. Winning the war mean that for the Europeans the Ottoman from a crumbling empire thats need to be prop up at time so to preserve a little of order while it's taken apart, had become a possible obstacle to their expansion and frankly i don't know if this upgrade will do any good to the Porte.
The Ottoman Empire situation it's complicated:
- North Africa it basically lost (Tunisia it's a defacto italian protectorate, Libya is basically independent with only the coastal city under Ottoman control and the Khedivate of Egypt it's on his way to become an european diplomatic battleground...and is strategic position it's too important for the UK to leave it in control of anyone else.)
- Horn of Africa, well...see Lybia. It's nominally under Ottoman control, at least part of it, but in reality totally independent.
- Nationalism, as the other multi-etnic empire of Europe aka Austria-Hungary, it's the real new enemy. Slavs and Greeks had a lot of claims on Ottoman territory, not counting Bulgaria wanting her independence...plus a lot of clay.
- World influence, well while the victory can/will boost the morale of muslims, the Ottoman lack the power projection capacity to really expand their diplomatic influence. Expecially if the navy it's slashed as OTL due to the fear of the sultan of a coup (sure here with the victory the fact can be butterflyed away, but it's better rememeber that the Navy was still too much big for the Ottoman econony anyway...so a lot of reduction it's on the way.)
- France and Italy are on the prowl and will not be deterred by the victory. France want to expand for economic and prestige reason after the defeat in the Franco-Prussian war and the Italians are the new kids on the block still high on their victory against A-H and the aquisition of Dalmatia (plus the colonial adventure in Asia.).
The Ottoman are their target/prey and they will not be deterred.
But it's better not making too much fuss about the resurgence of the Porte at this stage because 'it's not all gold what's shine'. Winning the war mean that for the Europeans the Ottoman from a crumbling empire thats need to be prop up at time so to preserve a little of order while it's taken apart, had become a possible obstacle to their expansion and frankly i don't know if this upgrade will do any good to the Porte.
The Ottoman Empire situation it's complicated:
- North Africa it basically lost (Tunisia it's a defacto italian protectorate, Libya is basically independent with only the coastal city under Ottoman control and the Khedivate of Egypt it's on his way to become an european diplomatic battleground...and is strategic position it's too important for the UK to leave it in control of anyone else.)
- Horn of Africa, well...see Lybia. It's nominally under Ottoman control, at least part of it, but in reality totally independent.
- Nationalism, as the other multi-etnic empire of Europe aka Austria-Hungary, it's the real new enemy. Slavs and Greeks had a lot of claims on Ottoman territory, not counting Bulgaria wanting her independence...plus a lot of clay
.- World influence, well while the victory can/will boost the morale of muslims, the Ottoman lack the power projection capacity to really expand their diplomatic influence. Expecially if the navy it's slashed as OTL due to the fear of the sultan of a coup (sure here with the victory the fact can be butterflyed away, but it's better rememeber that the Navy was still too much big for the Ottoman econony anyway...so a lot of reduction it's on the way.)
- France and Italy are on the prowl and will not be deterred by the victory. France want to expand for economic and prestige reason after the defeat in the Franco-Prussian war and the Italians are the new kids on the block still high on their victory against A-H and the aquisition of Dalmatia (plus the colonial adventure in Asia.).
The Ottoman are their target/prey and they will not be deterred.
Correct and incorrect. By all accounts, Tunisia is lost to the Italians by this point and it's just a matter of time before Rome finally plays its cards. Considering the coming butterflies from the East Indies, it won't be long. As for Libya, the fate of the region really hinges on the Porte's power to reestablish itself on the interior. With the coming Scramble for Africa, there will be several members of the Senussi who might look to Kostantiniyye for protection or at least some sort of aid. Whether they can convince their peers, or that the other side will be responsive... that will be the question.
For Egypt, the ruling khedive is already butterflied for another person that didn't survive IOTL. ITTL, he will be a complete wildcard in regards to the region's modernization and debt management. Then again, the benefits of having a complete wildcard is that you can create some unconventional choices of your own. The British and the Ottomans might end up becoming strange bedfellows over Cairo and North Africa.
Also correct. By this point in time, the rulers of the region would have made more deals with the Europeans than with the Ottomans. However, the Khedive ITTL is a complete wildcard and might only consolidate northern Sudan down to Khartoum and leave the nominal territories to rule themselves (it'll certainly butterfly a lot of the Egyptian debt). In fact, considering the rise of Ethiopia at this point in time, the Horn's sultanates might need to watch their backs from another direction entirely.
- Nationalism, as the other multi-etnic empire of Europe aka Austria-Hungary, it's the real new enemy. Slavs and Greeks had a lot of claims on Ottoman territory, not counting Bulgaria wanting her independence...plus a lot of clay
Oh yes, this will still be a problem for Kostantiniyye. However, as the Russo-Turkish War has shown, the Ottomans can pack a mean punch if provoked and all things considered, it might be best not to attack Rumelia alone. For the short-term, Greece will be silently eyeing Ottoman territory while glancing about for any alliances.
Bulgaria, on the other hand, will remain a running sore and will continue so for the foreseeable future. However, the Ottomans might have a solution for that. *hint*outside immigration*hint*
This will be one factor that will really depend on both time and circumstance. All I can say for now is this: "Beware of raw materials. They can make or break you."
The Italians and the French will certainly have a axe to grind against the Ottomans. However, the Ottomans might just deny them that, or at least try to. Tunisia and Algeria are practically gone for good, but the Levant might be one of the first places to be brought into the Ottoman fold. Libya might follow suit by time or circumstance, and the British might disapprove of any more Ottoman-carving after that.
I could see the French and Italians bonding over what could have been. It'll certainly make for some interesting times out in the East!
You're welcome!
I was a bit anxious about the update since it was basically a condensed version of those wikipedia/blog style infodumps. Glad to see some people like it that way.As for the Christians and the Jews, that does make for some guesswork. I guess it all depends in certain places, with the Bulgarian Christians in Rumelia generally feeling sore over their failed rebellion and the Levantine ones continuing to live as always. However, the victory of the Russo-Turkish War might result in an up-welling of Pan-Islamism or Pan-Ottomanism throughout the empire and the world, and that could change the treatment of minorities in the near-future.
As for the Jews, I don't know too much of them to make any guesses, but considering my reading of other timelines of this site I have a feeling that the greatest threat to the Jews might come from Russia instead of the Porte. I can see St. Petersburg blaming the failure on the Russian Empire's minority Jews and Muslims; doubly so if Tsar Alexander is assassinated like IOTL. In fact... considering the war, I can see Tsar Alexander getting offed earlier ITTL!
Correct and incorrect. By all accounts, Tunisia is lost to the Italians by this point and it's just a matter of time before Rome finally plays its cards. Considering the coming butterflies from the East Indies, it won't be long. As for Libya, the fate of the region really hinges on the Porte's power to reestablish itself on the interior. With the coming Scramble for Africa, there will be several members of the Senussi who might look to Kostantiniyye for protection or at least some sort of aid. Whether they can convince their peers, or that the other side will be responsive... that will be the question.
For Egypt, the ruling khedive is already butterflied for another person that didn't survive IOTL. ITTL, he will be a complete wildcard in regards to the region's modernization and debt management. Then again, the benefits of having a complete wildcard is that you can create some unconventional choices of your own. The British and the Ottomans might end up becoming strange bedfellows over Cairo and North Africa.
Well...i like wildcard
, make for a real interesting story. Regarding Libya, well at the moment (and till the oil is not discovered) it's just a big sandbox and it's most important role is to bind Egypt with Tunisia and Algeria plus control/have influence the caravan to and from Sudan/horn of Africa. So while is very possible and honestly make even sense, that the Porte will try to deny Lybia to the europeans for prestige reason, once Algeria and Tunisia are gone for good, much of the reason for keep it is also gone, better concentrate over the real important piece aka Egypt.In any case, i doubt that the Porte will not make even an attempt to block/obstacolate europeans attempt to expand in Libya/Sahara.
Ethiopia/Abyssinia is a complicated case, it's basically controlled chaos, a feudal nation very divided but also capable of being united in case of external menace. To make her begin to expand it need a serious change.
Oh well, as they said: the enemy of my enemy; plus both Romania, Serbia and Montenegro will be on the prowl for alliance as they have seen that the Russian are not really that much.
Having said that, both in Moscow and Vienna there are people that will be a little sore about the loss in the recent war and will feel the need to correct that situation...and frankly revenge and hate can be a big incentive in finally found a compromise over the influence in the Balkans.
I've a bad feeling about that.
Well, unlike the russian and the slavs nations between the French/Italians and the Porte it's more business than something of personal...at least at this stage. Frankly an understanding between Italy and France over Tunisia can make the British sweet profusely as now someone can cut the Mediterrean in half.
I could see the French and Italians bonding over what could have been. It'll certainly make for some interesting times out in the East!
Are not the best for a story
I don't think Ottomans will lose Libya here, or perhaps even Tunisia
Sure, Italy won't be deterred. They'll in fact drool over a bigger Ottoman Empire, since they'll view it as more land to legitimately grab. However, we're talking about a much stronger Ottoman Empire, which will they soon find out. For one thing, it's because Egypt will be reoccupied fully by the empire here, for sure. There's no reason to ignore British demand to do so since in here the empire will retain their veteran army instead of having to build it from scratch again. And with Egypt in hand, balance of power in Africa will change majorly.
Italy is a more motivated naval power here and generally stronger, but I don't think advantage from manpower from Egypt and Sudan and direct land bridge to north Africa can't be netralized. Remember that even without those Italy jumped into meat and money grinder in Libya. I just don't think they can do it here. Tunisia, while it's farther and quite a stretch for them to keep, but I think it's still possible, especially since they'll be able to rely on France to never let Italy have it. I definitely agree Italy will try, but they will not succeed. It will still bear significant consequences down the line. I will put my pin on Franco-Italian relations.
And if Libya and Tunisia are off, ditto Eritrea. Italy will still try their luck to get to Ethiopia from Somalia but it'll be even harder.
Sure, Italy won't be deterred. They'll in fact drool over a bigger Ottoman Empire, since they'll view it as more land to legitimately grab. However, we're talking about a much stronger Ottoman Empire, which will they soon find out. For one thing, it's because Egypt will be reoccupied fully by the empire here, for sure. There's no reason to ignore British demand to do so since in here the empire will retain their veteran army instead of having to build it from scratch again. And with Egypt in hand, balance of power in Africa will change majorly.
Italy is a more motivated naval power here and generally stronger, but I don't think advantage from manpower from Egypt and Sudan and direct land bridge to north Africa can't be netralized. Remember that even without those Italy jumped into meat and money grinder in Libya. I just don't think they can do it here. Tunisia, while it's farther and quite a stretch for them to keep, but I think it's still possible, especially since they'll be able to rely on France to never let Italy have it. I definitely agree Italy will try, but they will not succeed. It will still bear significant consequences down the line. I will put my pin on Franco-Italian relations.
And if Libya and Tunisia are off, ditto Eritrea. Italy will still try their luck to get to Ethiopia from Somalia but it'll be even harder.
True but bear in mind Russia and the Balkan states. The ottoman Empire has an 'eternal foe' hanging over their heartland and that Europe Anatolia front will be their priority. If Russia even makes rumbles with no actual declaration of war it will make the Ottomans less likely to commit wholly to Africa.
Also Britain may prefer Italy butting heads with the Turks than meddling in the Asia. The French may also be wary about a resurgent Ottoman Empire being threat to their presence in Algeria.
The Turks have a lot more going for them, but the war with Russia has awakened their enemies to their rising strength. And Russia's army was almost farcical it sounds like, that is unlikely to happen again.
The ship is sounder but the storm ahead may be stronger.
Also in regards to Africa and Asia, the Turks while Muslim would still be seen as foreigners by many, and colonizers. The coreligionist advantage is real, but isn't necessarily a winning ace.
Ehm...sorry but Italy don't really need to conquer Tunisia, the place is basically already de-facto an italian protectorate with a sizeble italian minority and the logistic train will be much much less problematic than Lybia.
On the contrary the logistic and manpower fatigue it's all on the Ottoman, plus even France want the place and an attempt of the Porte to assest again her authority will no be very liked (at least they want the place for them).
Regarding Ottoman capacity, sure has won...but now it has not become overnight a mighty military power, still has a lot of problems and engaging other great power is probably very low on her priority, plus all what you have proposed need time and during this period both France and Italy can quietly and officially took the places.
And if we are talking about stronger nation, ITTL Italy is considered a much stronger nation than OTL, thanks to Cavour and the clear victory agaisnt A-H
The Italian navy against the Ottoman one, will favor Regia Marina, the Ottoman have just fought a war and the Italian Navy, thanks to Cavour, is much more stronger than OTL.
Here the Ottomans haven't really become stronger (though certainly much stronger then OTL), it's just that they didn't fall into the near-bankruptcy hell pit like OTL. It's still a huge game changer from OTL.
I really won't underestimate what Egyptian landbridge and manpower can do to their favor in Africa. It will be just that much easier to reinforce North Africa this way. Not to mention, Ottomans had much more experience in dealing with the natives, like Touaregs. They'll still be hard to control, but the Turks knew better how to interact and work with them, and they can use this to disrupt French project in West Africa and possibly distract their attention and exhaust them. It's cliche to bring Flatters mission up, but I think it's a testament of what Ottomans could do in Africa even without all the advantages they will have here ITTL.
Though I think the biggest obstacle for French colonial adventure would be French government itself. French government after Napoleon seldom agreed with the army's expansionistic lust around the world. I think someone like Abdul Hamit would be able to take advantage of this. It'll be more preferable to French investors to just rip the profit of a place without the responsibility of running the said place. Ottomans can also offer to take over Tunisian debt.
I don't know about navy. By this point of OTL history, Ottoman navy was the third largest in the world. Has that changed here ? I think it will take a little while for Italy to takeover that place. At least, Ottoman navy will go obsolete rather fast. But they will still have infinite strategic advantage on land to render it irrelevant factor on land. Though it still means big for Ottoman navy.
I really won't underestimate what Egyptian landbridge and manpower can do to their favor in Africa. It will be just that much easier to reinforce North Africa this way. Not to mention, Ottomans had much more experience in dealing with the natives, like Touaregs. They'll still be hard to control, but the Turks knew better how to interact and work with them, and they can use this to disrupt French project in West Africa and possibly distract their attention and exhaust them. It's cliche to bring Flatters mission up, but I think it's a testament of what Ottomans could do in Africa even without all the advantages they will have here ITTL.
Though I think the biggest obstacle for French colonial adventure would be French government itself. French government after Napoleon seldom agreed with the army's expansionistic lust around the world. I think someone like Abdul Hamit would be able to take advantage of this. It'll be more preferable to French investors to just rip the profit of a place without the responsibility of running the said place. Ottomans can also offer to take over Tunisian debt.
I don't know about navy. By this point of OTL history, Ottoman navy was the third largest in the world. Has that changed here ? I think it will take a little while for Italy to takeover that place. At least, Ottoman navy will go obsolete rather fast. But they will still have infinite strategic advantage on land to render it irrelevant factor on land. Though it still means big for Ottoman navy.
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Ah, forgot to mention something.
Without/with different Congress of Berlin stemming out of Ottoman victory, perception of the Ottoman power will be different. They'll remain be regarded as a great power, so their territories won't be up for sharing. That's precisely what happened IOTL. Britain took Cyprus in order to counter Russian gains from the Ottomans, so France got free pass for Tunisia. Without all this, French government's perception of the empire will be different, too. It won't be viewed as a power vacuum to fill in, so they won't simply go along with the army, since they'll be wary of international attention.
Without/with different Congress of Berlin stemming out of Ottoman victory, perception of the Ottoman power will be different. They'll remain be regarded as a great power, so their territories won't be up for sharing. That's precisely what happened IOTL. Britain took Cyprus in order to counter Russian gains from the Ottomans, so France got free pass for Tunisia. Without all this, French government's perception of the empire will be different, too. It won't be viewed as a power vacuum to fill in, so they won't simply go along with the army, since they'll be wary of international attention.
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