Mary Tudor becomes queen in 1547 -- Who would she marry (with a twist)?

[Nuraghe]

well then, although the scene is described very well and very emotionally, I see it difficult for people to support Elizabeth ( as Catherine Parr points out at this point ) also due to the fact that the vast absolute majority of the population is still basically Catholic ( convinced ) with only one fringe of nobles and the bourgeoisie with pro-Protestant sympathies ( but very fragmented among them ), so Mary will have a much easier life in restoring the ancient faith here ( just see what Eamon Duffy says in the series of his essays on the subject ), he will certainly have to face possible rebellions but nothing too serious to represent a concrete threat to his government, furthermore this can also influence Reginald Pole's ecclesiastical career ( given that the conclave in which he almost became pontiff is two years from the Pod, and also the development of the first phase of the Council of Trent ) finally the although the inquisition may have become synonymous with a terrible threat, in practice it was a simple tribunal dedicated to canon law ( therefore specialized in the ecclesiastical field, finally one was considered innocent until proven guilty, irrefutable ( which is absolutely very modern, I would say, for sure ) not even remotely comparable to the secular tribunals of the time ( let anyone save themselves from ending up judged by the latter ), so paradoxically for the Protestants the inquisition ( of the Roman type ) in England would have been much better than the Marian tribunals of Otl, given that for the inquisitors the first task they had with the heretics was to make them return to the unity in the church, possibly convincing them with words or deeds, then only if the previous attempts failed did they opt to put pressure on the accused ( only in extreme cases, after all attempts at "religious diplomacy" had no effect, the heretic was actually punished, but usually those who were hit were the elite or the minds of the Protestant movements, therefore people more like Cramner than the citizens common )

furthermore, his accession to the throne also interrupted the 8-year war between England and Scotland of Otl, which began at the behest of Henry with the aim of forcing the regency of Mary of Guise to cede the young Mary Stuart to marry her to Edward ( who was one of the greater expenses to drain the English state, given that it was at the same time as the French campaign, which after Henry's betrayal of Charles, saw the English continue to fight alone on two fronts ) resources that could very well have been used elsewhere ( such as reinforcing Calais and in particular Boulogne, which in 1546 had been ceded by the French to the English crown to obtain a truce of around 6 years ) or within the kingdom


it is certainly probable that England will end up drawn into another war between Valois and Habsburg ( but at least the collaboration will be absolutely greater, given that Charles is Mary's husband and will be present there, close to her )



PS

Will his famous phrase of Charles V be something like this perhaps : I speak Latin to God, Italian to women, French to men, Spanish to my beloved son, English to my wife and German to my horse ? 🤣

 

[yolly12345]

General question ITTL would Scotland still have gone Protestant? The rough wooing ends but because of the political complexity, MQOS may still be sent to France for her safety, allowing Protestant and anti-French resentment to build. Does anyone also have any good sources about Scotland during Mary I of England’s reign?

 

[Nuraghe]

General question ITTL would Scotland still have gone Protestant? The rough wooing ends but because of the political complexity, MQOS may still be sent to France for her safety, allowing Protestant and anti-French resentment to build. Does anyone also have any good sources about Scotland during Mary I of England’s reign?

technically Protestantism apart from a few small pockets in Scotland was quite limited ( similar to England, but although more capable of carrying out dangerous anti-government actions, see the murder of the archbishop and the ( last ) cardinal David Beaton in 1546 ) it was truly under Elizabethan support which took momentum in the lower classes of the kingdom ( thanks to Knox's pastoral skill ) all with the aim of weakening Maria Stuart and the possible axis with Paris


Unfortunately I can't say more, I don't have the right skills in the matter, Sorry

 

[isabella]

General question ITTL would Scotland still have gone Protestant? The rough wooing ends but because of the political complexity, MQOS may still be sent to France for her safety, allowing Protestant and anti-French resentment to build. Does anyone also have any good sources about Scotland during Mary I of England’s reign?

No way. Whatever happened to Mary Stuart, who here is far less likely to be sent in France, without a Protestant England is extremely unlikely seeing Scotland (or the Netherlands who here would never be under Sparish rule) going Protestant

 

[yolly12345]

No way. Whatever happened to Mary Stuart, who here is far less likely to be sent in France, without a Protestant England is extremely unlikely seeing Scotland (or the Netherlands who here would never be under Sparish rule) going Protestant

Why would The Netherlands ITTL not go Protestant? Religious tension and anti-Spanish (and ITTL possibly English) sentiment would contribute to the outbreak of conflict. Also what would happen ITTL to John Knox? Exile/burning?

 

[Nuraghe]

Why would The Netherlands ITTL not go Protestant? Religious tension and anti-Spanish (and ITTL possibly English) sentiment would contribute to the outbreak of conflict. Also what would happen ITTL to John Knox? Exile/burning?

because it would be Charles who would continue his centralization project in small steps ( it must be remembered that he was not Spanish but Burgundian, so I hardly see the Dutch rising up against their native sovereign and who is really just a few kilometers away ( instead of on the other part of the continent ) so he can intervene immediately, also his son would be educated to respect the customs of the duchy so he would be totally different from Otl Philip II ( also I doubt that Charles will use for the most part non-local administrators in his domain, with respect to the policies Otl of his successor, so there would not even be the excuse of foreign domination and the impossibility of being able to communicate directly with one's sovereign ) certainly there will be important pockets of Protestant tendencies but with closer state control and in line with local customs, I don't see an Otl-like revolt starting against Habsburg policies, even if a similar development also totally changes the Peace of Augsburg and the First War of Schmalkand (which may be more of an imperial victory), all of this also changes Charles and Ferdinand's plans on how to deal with the Lutherans ( perhaps in this TL the confinement plan ( 1 ) can really be taken into consideration, usually discarded because it was deemed impractical Otl )



1 ) it was a plan that was presented cyclically to the imperial court, and included the creation of a state in the north of the empire where the Lutherans would be confined ( in the event of a Habsburg victory ) including the territories of Brandenburg, Saxony, Mecklenburg and some parts of the territories Guelphs, its eventual governor would be chosen from among the heretical dynasties of the empire and then be recognized by Vienna before starting his mandate ( usually the favorites for this were either the Hasse Darmstadt or the Wettin ), during 30YW it saw further development with the addition of a similar proposal for the Calvinists ( usually thought to be ruled by the Wittelsbachs of the Palatinate ) while the rest of the Reich would have returned to being Catholic ( it is also possibly divided between various minor families or cadet branches of states allied to the Habsburgs ) because even in Vienna they had made peace ( reluctantly ) with the thought that Protestantism could not be eradicated, so it would have been better to control it to avoid letting it expand


while obviously I foresee Scandinavia more or less developing like Otl, given the important connections with strongly Lutheran Northern Germany ( even more so than Otl if somehow all Protestants in the Reich are "exiled" to said territory )

 

[isabella]

Why would The Netherlands ITTL not go Protestant? Religious tension and anti-Spanish (and ITTL possibly English) sentiment would contribute to the outbreak of conflict. Also what would happen ITTL to John Knox? Exile/burning?

Religious tension would be limitate, anti- Spanish sentiment would have no reason to exist at all as the country would never be under Spanish rule (who OTL started with Philip II, while here would be inherited by a child of Charles and Mary) and anti-English sentiment would likewise have no reason to exist as England was not the far away Spain but a near state, close ally and commercial partner since a lot of time and being under the same ruler would be much different

 

[yolly12345]

Religious tension would be limitate, anti- Spanish sentiment would have no reason to exist at all as the country would never be under Spanish rule (who OTL started with Philip II, while here would be inherited by a child of Charles and Mary) and anti-English sentiment would likewise have no reason to exist as England was not the far away Spain but a near state, close ally and commercial partner since a lot of time and being under the same ruler would be much different

Interesting, thanks for the response, the Netherlands going Protestant is semi-important for my TL. Since ITTL Mary dying would leave a minor child on the throne as the sovereign of the Netherlands (or if it's given to the Duke of York who would also be underage). They would need a regent. Perhaps after Charles's death (ITTL 2 years prior to Mary) Mary with her declining health and primary focus as Queen of England allowed Phillip, King of Spain ITTL to influence or serve as regent of the Netherlands. Thus, allowing OTL events to happen?

 

[Nuraghe]

Interesting, thanks for the response, the Netherlands going Protestant is semi-important for my TL. Since ITTL Mary dying would leave a minor child on the throne as the sovereign of the Netherlands (or if it's given to the Duke of York who would also be underage). They would need a regent. Perhaps after Charles's death (ITTL 2 years prior to Mary) Mary with her declining health and primary focus as Queen of England allowed Phillip, King of Spain ITTL to influence or serve as regent of the Netherlands. Thus, allowing OTL events to happen?

in this case it is more likely that there will be a three-way regency, with an English noble, one from Burgundy and then possibly an imperial representative ( probably Charles decides to rely on his brother Ferdinand or his sister Maria, who in any case, being capable rulers in dealing with the emerging Protestant sects and pitting them against each other , are not would cause the tense situation of Otl, which was truly such only after 1566, when Alba carried out a massacre of rebels communicating it to Philip after the fact )


it is more likely that due to a second siege of Vienna by Suleiman ( who Otl died on the way to Vienna ) the Habsburgs were forced to recognize the Lutherans' formation of a special statute region in the northern part of the Reich , after a possible third Smalkand war ( obviously all with an accompanying reform of the imperial administration, the only way Vienna could swallow this )

 

[isabella]

Interesting, thanks for the response, the Netherlands going Protestant is semi-important for my TL. Since ITTL Mary dying would leave a minor child on the throne as the sovereign of the Netherlands (or if it's given to the Duke of York who would also be underage). They would need a regent. Perhaps after Charles's death (ITTL 2 years prior to Mary) Mary with her declining health and primary focus as Queen of England allowed Phillip, King of Spain ITTL to influence or serve as regent of the Netherlands. Thus, allowing OTL events to happen?

No way that would happen and no way who Philip II would have any kind of power in the Netherlands here. after Mary’s death either the Netherland will be under the same regent of England or will be under Maria or some Austrian Habsburg will be regent there…

 

[yolly12345]

No way that would happen and no way who Philip II would have any kind of power in the Netherlands here. after Mary’s death either the Netherland will be under the same regent of England or will be under Maria or some Austrian Habsburg will be regent there…

Okay, even with Mary of Austria’s death as OTL, the governor of the Netherlands can go to who then? Also is there any conceivable way the Netherlands can go as OTL? I have a couple more ideas to add to my possible TL and I really want the Low Countries to have a base of Protestantism in TTL. Thanks for your response again 😊

 

[Nuraghe]

Okay, even with Mary of Austria’s death as OTL, the governor of the Netherlands can go to who then? Also is there any conceivable way the Netherlands can go as OTL? I have a couple more ideas to add to my possible TL and I really want the Low Countries to have a base of Protestantism in TTL. Thanks for your response again 😊

unlikely to happen, however if we exclude Mary of Habsburg, then it is likely that the governor/regent is a scion of the Austrian branch of the family or even Don Juan of Austria himself ( who was born in 1544, is that his father Otl had him come to Spain to meet him and have him educated at Philip's court, it is likely that he ended up here in London ), but in any case the whole thing would be at the head of Ferdinand ( who Otl died in 1564 ) until his nephew becomes an adult

 

[isabella]

Okay, even with Mary of Austria’s death as OTL, the governor of the Netherlands can go to who then? Also is there any conceivable way the Netherlands can go as OTL? I have a couple more ideas to add to my possible TL and I really want the Low Countries to have a base of Protestantism in TTL. Thanks for your response again 😊

Not really as the only true problem who the Netherlands had OTL was the Spanish rule (read as a foreign, far away nation whose ruler was not really interested in them). Plus the fact who England was protestant influenced heavily the diffusion and eventual adoption of Protestantism in both Scotland and Netherlands.

 

[Opunium]

Okay, even with Mary of Austria’s death as OTL, the governor of the Netherlands can go to who then? Also is there any conceivable way the Netherlands can go as OTL? I have a couple more ideas to add to my possible TL and I really want the Low Countries to have a base of Protestantism in TTL. Thanks for your response again 😊

Maybe Christina of Denmark? Her and the Prince of Orange's OTL attitude of 'Let's not intervere with heretics because of trade' could lead to a quicker import of protestantism? Albeit maybe it's difficult cause a personal union with England is probably the biggest boon for trade there is. Centralisation politics wont cause the same issues it did with the Spanish if the monarch is just arcross the channel in England.

Maybe:
Let's say Charles and Mary have two sons. John and Charles (?). John is raised as new king for both domains in England, under strict catholic supervision, while Charles is raised in the Netherlands under people like the Prince of Orange. Charles V is, like OTL , all over the place, and thus has less influence under Charles junior. When in 1558 both Charles V and Mary die, John becomes king. He is a strict catholic because of his mothers influence. Charles is made governor of the netherlands, being more actually somewhat sympethatic to protestant ideas and thus reluctant to presecute the protestants. Eventually Charles dies, and a even stricter John puts Don John of Austria in charge to ramp up protestant persecution, harming trade and income, thus meaning more taxes are needed, eventually leading a similair scenario as OTL in the netherlands. John of England meanwhile does not have the capability to invade because of protestant troubles at home (maybe similair to the French wars of religion).

Or for a more original idea: Charles actually converts to protestantism and then John dies. Leading some scenario in which the catholics rise up against their protestant ruler, an ATL reverse version of the 80 years war.

 

[ordinarylittleme]

Maybe Christina of Denmark?

Why?

 

[Nuraghe]

Maybe Christina of Denmark? Her and the Prince of Orange's OTL attitude of 'Let's not intervere with heretics because of trade' could lead to a quicker import of protestantism? Albeit maybe it's difficult cause a personal union with England is probably the biggest boon for trade there is. Centralisation politics wont cause the same issues it did with the Spanish if the monarch is just arcross the channel in England.

Maybe:
Let's say Charles and Mary have two sons. John and Charles (?). John is raised as new king for both domains in England, under strict catholic supervision, while Charles is raised in the Netherlands under people like the Prince of Orange. Charles V is, like OTL , all over the place, and thus has less influence under Charles junior. When in 1558 both Charles V and Mary die, John becomes king. He is a strict catholic because of his mothers influence. Charles is made governor of the netherlands, being more actually somewhat sympethatic to protestant ideas and thus reluctant to presecute the protestants. Eventually Charles dies, and a even stricter John puts Don John of Austria in charge to ramp up protestant persecution, harming trade and income, thus meaning more taxes are needed, eventually leading a similair scenario as OTL in the netherlands. John of England meanwhile does not have the capability to invade because of protestant troubles at home (maybe similair to the French wars of religion).

Or for a more original idea: Charles actually converts to protestantism and then John dies. Leading some scenario in which the catholics rise up against their protestant ruler, an ATL reverse version of the 80 years war.

as much as I like your scenario of an inverted 80YW with the Catholics rebelling against the local ruler becoming Protestant, It's really difficult for that to happen, I dare say almost unlikely, because if Charles marries Mary, it means that first of all he will abdicate the Spanish throne for Philip, then he will move to England, and at most he will shuttle between Brussels and London ( with some escapades to Vienna and perhaps further afield ). there in Madrid to check on his son ), so he won't be as stressed as Otl and potentially this can extend his life a few more years, which means he would be the one to supervise the process of creating a state system in Burgundy ( immensely nullifying the vast majority of the problems that caused the revolt of 1566 Otl ), and above all knowing him his children will be raised as arch Catholics and also quite expert in juggling Burgundian and even English habits and customs ( another reason that can ruin the possibility of revolt ), furthermore the extreme proximity between England and Burgundy makes military intervention much easier and quicker in case of crisis ( the tombstone on the possibilities of a successful revolt like Otl ) and in case a regency was necessary ( in the Netherlands would be replaced by a Habsburg representative, probably Maria or Ferdinand, who already has to deal with the "heretics" would hardly favor them but not even prosecute them, and this would mean that the Dutch Calvinists of OTL would remain a very tiny minority )

 

[yolly12345]

as much as I like your scenario of an inverted 80YW with the Catholics rebelling against the local ruler becoming Protestant, It's really difficult for that to happen, I dare say almost unlikely, because if Charles marries Mary, it means that first of all he will abdicate the Spanish throne for Philip, then he will move to England, and at most he will shuttle between Brussels and London ( with some escapades to Vienna and perhaps further afield ). there in Madrid to check on his son ), so he won't be as stressed as Otl and potentially this can extend his life a few more years, which means he would be the one to supervise the process of creating a state system in Burgundy ( immensely nullifying the vast majority of the problems that caused the revolt of 1566 Otl ), and above all knowing him his children will be raised as arch Catholics and also quite expert in juggling Burgundian and even English habits and customs ( another reason that can ruin the possibility of revolt ), furthermore the extreme proximity between England and Burgundy makes military intervention much easier and quicker in case of crisis ( the tombstone on the possibilities of a successful revolt like Otl ) and in case a regency was necessary ( in the Netherlands would be replaced by a Habsburg representative, probably Maria or Ferdinand, who already has to deal with the "heretics" would hardly favor them but not even prosecute them, and this would mean that the Dutch Calvinists of OTL would remain a tiny minority )

Maybe Christina of Denmark? Her and the Prince of Orange's OTL attitude of 'Let's not intervere with heretics because of trade' could lead to a quicker import of protestantism? Albeit maybe it's difficult cause a personal union with England is probably the biggest boon for trade there is. Centralisation politics wont cause the same issues it did with the Spanish if the monarch is just arcross the channel in England.

Maybe:
Let's say Charles and Mary have two sons. John and Charles (?). John is raised as new king for both domains in England, under strict catholic supervision, while Charles is raised in the Netherlands under people like the Prince of Orange. Charles V is, like OTL , all over the place, and thus has less influence under Charles junior. When in 1558 both Charles V and Mary die, John becomes king. He is a strict catholic because of his mothers influence. Charles is made governor of the netherlands, being more actually somewhat sympethatic to protestant ideas and thus reluctant to presecute the protestants. Eventually Charles dies, and a even stricter John puts Don John of Austria in charge to ramp up protestant persecution, harming trade and income, thus meaning more taxes are needed, eventually leading a similair scenario as OTL in the netherlands. John of England meanwhile does not have the capability to invade because of protestant troubles at home (maybe similair to the French wars of religion).

Or for a more original idea: Charles actually converts to protestantism and then John dies. Leading some scenario in which the catholics rise up against their protestant ruler, an ATL reverse version of the 80 years war.

Thanks for y'all's response. This gives me more things to think about (and hopefully not procrastinate). 😊

 

[Nuraghe]

Thanks for y'all's response. This gives me more things to think about (and hopefully not procrastinate). 😊

ah there's no need to thank me, I haven't done anything special, it's just that I like your story pod ( also I love Mary ), because it allows you to play tremendously with the religious problems of the HRE ( possibly solving those that Otl brought to 30YW ) and at the same time the Habsburgs can be strengthened without this becoming a saw anyway, lastly lastly I would really like to see a TL where some of the ideas of Charles and Ferdinand of Otl see the light ( mainly that of creating specific territories and fully recognized by Vienna for the two "heretical" confessions of the Reich, where all their adherents should have converged ( the Lutherans in the north, between Saxony, Thuringia, Brandenburg and the Guelph lands ( 1 ), while the Calvinists in the Palatinate and neighboring areas ) leaving the rest of the Empire remains Catholic, and this could be the right scenario, given that the marriage between Charles and Mary further ties England's good relations with the Habsburgs, furthermore, an English Burgundy is frighteningly similar to a project conceived by James I Otl as a method to pacify the continent during the 30YW, in practice he imagined a buffer state ( of Catholic faith, so that the Stuarts could play on two fields at the same time, with Great Britain as the leader of the Protestants and with this state among the Papists ) between France and the Habsburgs, headed by a cadet of the Stuarts, without forgetting that with Mary reigning for a long time, Reginald Pole's chances of actually becoming pontiff this time increase ( since there will also be other English cardinals compared to Otl, who can help him obtain the very few votes needed, and this can also change the colonization of Otl for a series of various reasons ) not to mention how this pod can influence France, Scandinavia ( a little less, given that due to geography they are almost inclined to receive a huge Lutheran influence ) Scotland ( where I'm sure we will see major changes ) and in Italy


1 ) concept very similar to an idea strongly supported by Luther, who wanted the Smalkan League to become a more cohesive organization with clear and centralized leadership

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

Sorry for my late responses

Okay, even with Mary of Austria’s death as OTL, the governor of the Netherlands can go to who then?

Margaret of Parma

Also is there any conceivable way the Netherlands can go as OTL? I have a couple more ideas to add to my possible TL and I really want the Low Countries to have a base of Protestantism in TTL. Thanks for your response again 😊

As I've said to @The Gybson Boy ,the 80YW essentially caused a religious/population inversion in the Netherlands. The main "Protestant" locales were in the south in what became the Spanish Netherlands. The north was, by and large, mostly Catholic and rural. As the government in Brussels cracked down on Protestantism, those Protestants fled northwards (or to the Rhineland or even Sweden) into Holland etc. The Catholic northerners, both trying to get away from the Protestants (to avoid being tarred with the same brush) and because there was now a lot of vacant land down south, went in the opposite direction.

How much this would happen TTL is debatable IMO, but its something to consider.

 

[Nuraghe]

Sorry for my late responses

Margaret of Parma

As I've said to @The Gybson Boy ,the 80YW essentially caused a religious/population inversion in the Netherlands. The main "Protestant" locales were in the south in what became the Spanish Netherlands. The north was, by and large, mostly Catholic and rural. As the government in Brussels cracked down on Protestantism, those Protestants fled northwards (or to the Rhineland or even Sweden) into Holland etc. The Catholic northerners, both trying to get away from the Protestants (to avoid being tarred with the same brush) and because there was now a lot of vacant land down south, went in the opposite direction.

How much this would happen TTL is debatable IMO, but its something to consider.

I fully agree, even if this now makes me think of something else, is if the Burgundians religious refugees were to strengthen the two hypothetical states decreed by an ATL Peace of Augsburg ?, how would the situation change, because Otl as regards the Calvinists there was a very popular idea at the imperial court to encourage through unofficial channels the settlement of the Huguenots fleeing from France ( mainly political exiles from the wars of religion ) with the aim of strengthening the Western front and food anti-French sentiment, without forgetting where Otl the Huguenots went after the revocation of the Edict of Nantes, we are still talking about a significant number of people ( approximately 1.5 million ), furthermore still following this line of thought, if the major protestant confessions of the HRE are homogeneously grouped in precise areas, this in turn will also modify the development of their political and religious ideologies ( in particular I am thinking of the Lutherans who would return to having "only" 3 important states on the continent, between Sweden, Denmark and HRE, but the same reasoning can also be done for the reformed, who find themselves with a political training ground obtained without having to fight too much, now the real question is, what will Calvino do, will he remain in Geneva or will he go to that place to better control the situation ? )