Long term developments of a moderately successful Vinland colony? (read OP post please people)

[EmperorOfTheNorthSea]

Another Vinland WI thread I guess, but rather than the endless discussions (if you could call them that) of whether Vinland would become a veritable China overnight that bypasses Newfoundland altogether or forever be condemned to be a bunch of poor fishermen and shepherds, there was even that one poster who claimed Newfoundland was worse for agriculture than Iceland; and while I suppose that's an interesting discussion in and of itself I must admit I would find it more interesting to talk of the various impacts that a moderately successful Vinland would have on History.

However in order to actually asses what impacts it would have some context on what the size and makeup of Vinland actually is like (leading to all the derailed threads). So by 'moderate' I'm just going to assume the Norse get a foothold on the Island of Newfoundland and it's growth is partially aided by the occasional second or third son of Icelandic rich men left out of the inheritance as well as the rare slave from Dublin as well of course the constant influx of Greenlanders(if the colony is not outright abandoned save the best grazing grounds). Malthus said that a population with an abundance can double every twenty years, for the sake of pragmatism let's say for Vinland it takes 25 years instead(including whatever immigration from Green/Iceland they get).

Now assuming the Norse stay on this trajectory where they've gotten their foot in the door just enough that their demographic advantages can start to work it's wonders over the St. Lawrence bay region non-agricultural Algonquian speaking peoples in terms of influence and power where do things go from here in the decades and centuries to come? What are the effects on Iceland? Or North America as a whole?

Previous threads that contain pertinent discussion. Also these.

 

[Count of Crisco]

Another Vinland WI thread I guess, but rather than the endless discussions (if you could call them that) of whether Vinland would become a veritable China overnight that bypasses Newfoundland altogether or forever be condemned to be a bunch of poor fishermen and shepherds, there was even that one poster who claimed Newfoundland was worse for agriculture than Iceland; and while I suppose that's an interesting discussion in and of itself I must admit I would find it more interesting to talk of the various impacts that a moderately successful Vinland would have on History.

However in order to actually asses what impacts it would have some context on what the size and makeup of Vinland actually is like (leading to all the derailed threads). So by 'moderate' I'm just going to assume the Norse get a foothold on the Island of Newfoundland and it's growth is partially aided by the occasional second or third son of Icelandic rich men left out of the inheritance as well as the rare slave from Dublin as well of course the constant influx of Greenlanders(if the colony is not outright abandoned save the best grazing grounds). Malthus said that a population with an abundance can double every twenty years, for the sake of pragmatism let's say for Vinland it takes 25 years instead(including whatever immigration from Green/Iceland they get).

Now assuming the Norse stay on this trajectory where they've gotten their foot in the door just enough that their demographic advantages can start to work it's wonders over the St. Lawrence bay region non-agricultural Algonquian speaking peoples in terms of influence and power where do things go from here in the decades and centuries to come? What are the effects on Iceland? Or North America as a whole?

Previous threads that contain pertinent discussion. Also these.

Assuming the colony gets a foothold in the middle of the 11th century, say 1050, with a small population traveling from Greenland and small numbers trickling over from the homeland you may see a population of a few thousand to the mid ten thousands by the time the little ice age makes travel from Europe to the new world more difficult, this is what ultimately seems to have doomed the settlements in Greenland but they may endure here. Lets say conservatively that ten thousand people lived in the colony by the 15th century.

What happens next could be interesting. If we again assume the colony was self sufficient aside from trade of luxury goods back and forth then it could survive, with diminished population growth for a century or two and then accelerated growth after that, until the age of discovery. IOTL the Danes did not return to Greenland until the 1700s, but if a larger population lived in Vinland its likely this happens sooner, with the kingdom of Denmark sending ships over at least a century earlier.

These colonists, say 50,000 by this point, could have preserved much of their Scandinavian culture, language, and importantly religion. Being Catholic at the time the settlement was abandoned. This would be a problem for the Danes, who again I assume make contact in the mid to late 17th century and not some other country, as they had turned Protestant.

From there who knows what could happen. A few tens of thousands of catholic Norse living in the new world could potentially allow Denmark to exert significant influence over the new world, competing perhaps even with Spain and Portugal in the colonial game. Or the Norse in the area could have forged their own unique identity and branch of Catholicism mixing native elements which sees them labelled heretics and attacked viciously. Anything is possible I suppose.

 

[CommieScum]

The most obvious and important effect would be the gradual and thus less disruptive dissemination of old world diseases, if it can be transmitted from Vinland down to Mesoamerica.

 

[Cate13]

The most obvious and important effect would be the gradual and thus less disruptive dissemination of old world diseases, if it can be transmitted from Vinland down to Mesoamerica.

This a big one! If the Native American populations have already been exposed to European diseases (even if they were just as disruptive as OTL, if it happens earlier, they'll have more time to build back up populations) it'll be much harder for the Europeans to push them out.

 

[Count of Crisco]

This a big one! If the Native American populations have already been exposed to European diseases (even if they were just as disruptive as OTL, if it happens earlier, they'll have more time to build back up populations) it'll be much harder for the Europeans to push them out.

I think if the colony is established during the 11th century, and survives growing in size during the next centuries by the time Columbus discovers the new world (butterflies permitting) in the late 15th century native populations will probably be slowly recovering. Though it is likely that some new world diseases do still cause alot of problems for the native populations.

 

[casaubon]

This a big one! If the Native American populations have already been exposed to European diseases (even if they were just as disruptive as OTL, if it happens earlier, they'll have more time to build back up populations) it'll be much harder for the Europeans to push them out.

It will be tough to establish endemicity, as every time a significant plague spreads the continental trade networks will collapse. Once re-established, a new set of pathogens will spread and restart the cycle. Smallpox reached American Indian (EDIT: around the Great Lakes) communities in the 1750s, two hundred and fifty years after Spanish arrival, more than a century after European contact, and only upon being recruited into the Seven Years' War.

It is likely, over time, American Indians will realize the Vinlanders are the source of this and either have taboos about them or have specialized traders who follow stricter hygiene and ritual practices (but likely enjoy natural or developed immunity as well). Depending on when Europeans arrive in this disease-collapse cycle, they may find it more difficult to establish widespread control. If anything, the existence of large centralized states in Mesoamerica and the Andes enabled the Spanish to simply slot themselves atop that hierarchy after destroying the leaders. Having to contend with smaller states with an increased disease tolerance (plus an earlier horse and livestock culture) could counterintuitively slow European colonization.

 

[LampLighters]

The most obvious and important effect would be the gradual and thus less disruptive dissemination of old world diseases, if it can be transmitted from Vinland down to Mesoamerica.

I don't see any diseases arriving into Mesoamerica from Vinland unless Norsemen actually travel to Mesoamerica and directly interact with it.

 

[Jürgen]

The most important factor in the Middle Ages is that it will keep contact with Europe, the loss of contact with Greenland happened in the 15th century and was mainly caused by it not being worth keeping contact with around 1000-2000 people at the end of the world. Here contact will be upkept and that will have interesting effect on Scandinavia. Iceland will instead of being on the edge the world become a important stopover for trade with Vinland.

If we imagine a starting population of 1000 people, a settlement in 1000 AD and a doubling every 25 year, Vinland will have a bigger population than Scandinavia in mid 14th century and rival France or Germany by around 1500 (if the Black Plague also hit Vinland, if it doesn’t cut 50 years off).

This will mean that whoever control the North Atlantic will control the access to this market. This will likely be Norway and as such I imagine no Kalmar Union and more aggressive wars between Norway and Scotland maybe with Norwegian victory and Norway keeping control over the Hebrides. Nidaros will be a incredible important archdiocese se facto keeping control over the Church in the New World.

 

[Gloss]

Let's say we get about 200 Norse settles in Newfoundland by about 1000 CE compared to about 30-160 people in the colony we found OTL, from then on we say they have at least a 2% annual growth on average, those are the population sizes they would have:

Spoiler

1000 CE: 200
1100 CE: 1,300
1200 CE: 9,300
1300 CE: 67,000
1400 CE: 480,000
1500 CE: 3,500,000

This is just a rough model to give people an idea of what a possibly modest 2% annual growth means on the long run. Obviously there are carrying capacity limits and various things that could bring growth rates down in the latter periods but at the same time a good argument can be made that a 2% growth is low for the early period when the population will have tons of good lands and be generally younger.

The 13 colonies experienced a 3.1% annual growth from 1650 to 1770, but let's be more conservative and say that it was just 1%:

Spoiler

1000 CE: 200
1100 CE:500
1200 CE: 1,200
1300 CE: 3,100
1400 CE: 8,300
1500 CE: 22,000

The 2 models paint 2 very different scenarios, in my opinion the 2nd is extremely unfeasible just by comparison to the colonization of Iceland or the early modern colonization of the Eastern Seaboard. Both scenarios also assumes no further migration from Greenland(peak population of 5,000 in 1200 CE) and Iceland(50k-80k peak population)

As an alternative model, let's assume that the population growth starts at 2% and then decreases progressively to 1.5% and then 1% each century, with a low 0.5% growth in the last 2 centuries(1300-1500).
Let's also assume that about 10 people migrate to the colony annually(1,000 people a century compared to 120,000 Spaniards migrating to the Americas from 1492 to 1600):

Spoiler

1000 CE: 200
1100 CE:4,500
1200 CE: 22,000
1300 CE: 60,000
1400 CE: 100,000
1500 CE: 170,000

As you can see the modest 10 immigrants a year causes the early population to grow quite faster compared to the other models, obviously.

I personally think my natural growth is too little, this is what happens when we start with a 3% figure instead(still decaying by 0.5% each century, step-wise):

Spoiler

1000 CE: 200
1100 CE:9,600
1200 CE: 120,000
1300 CE: 860,000
1400 CE: 3,800,000
1500 CE: 10,300,000

As you can once again see the 2 models differ considerably, for me the 2% initial growth one is too conservative while the 3% one is too exaggerated, especially in the latter period.

Ultimately though the question is whether you believe the Norse population would have the same kind of growths that the early Americans and Quebeckers had or not, if you do then by 1300 CE the Norse should have more than 100,000 people at the very least, likely more. What happens later on is a matter of carrying capacity, climate change and what land the Norse settle beyond Atlantic Canada.

 

[Dan1988]

I once considered doing a Vinland TL many moons ago that involved something similar to this, but the vast majority of the influx were Christians from Norway due to persecutions led by a pagan restoration. Although some pagan customs were retained (i.e. the berserkers, who would ultimately evolve into something else that is more harmless, like traditional Pontic Greek dances for instance), it would largely be a medieval Catholic Christian worldview primarily led by the monasteries (because Vinland would be rather poor. At the same time, there would also be a strong indigenous influence from its location in North America, which could influence the character and development of other Christianized Norse elements carried over in their longboats (not to mention agriculture-wise, as they'd be landing in an area much colder than even northern Norway and on an area that's basically an extension of the Appalachian Mountains). Part of this comes from evidence from the OTL stories told by Greenlanders themselves regarding the Norse presence, which was actually rather cordial (if a bit tense at times) right up until somebody did something pretty stupid and spiraled out of control (that's the CliffNotes version; I forgot the exact specifics).

The main reason why I considered doing it was to try my hand at conlanging, and in that case I assumed Vinlandic would derive from Old Norwegian (hence sharing some changes not found in Old and Modern Icelandic), and I remember specifically looking at Jamtlandic/Troendersk (both are actually the same variety, just named after Jamtland in Sweden and the Troendelag area in Norway) and Elfdalian/Dalecarlian for inspiration. At the same time, because of the indigenous presence, I decided having a look at some contemporary Native American languages could work. Unfortunately, for me, I was pretty stupid and didn't do much research, and a major problem is that we don't know what Beothuk is supposed to sound like. I believe I ended up looking more at Cree varieties (since that made the most sense to me).
>Therefore, the Vinlandic language, in its early stages, in all possibility would probably have major influence at all levels from Proto-Eastern Cree (including the origins of Innu-aimun/Montagnais/Naskapi and Atikamekw. Care here should be taken when dealing with Cree, as Canadian French demonstrates that in this case there's also the possibility of a Nordic/Cree mixed language, with the main criteria being how the verb phrase is structured - if it's more Indo-European-like, it would count as Vinlandic (Metis French in the Canadian case), and if it's more Cree-like than it's its own language (like Michif in the Canadian case). So both would be encountered.
>As one with a Catholic tradition, there would be growing influence from Latin on the language, at least on the lexical level (how Latinate words would actually be pronounced is a separate matter altogether) - the stronger Catholic identity here would mean that Latinate and general Romance influence would be stronger here than in the European Nordic languages, and retained as a result of religious conflict where the Vinlanders remained Catholic while everyone else was Lutheran (and the Vinlanders suffer for it until independence).
Then things got crazy, and I eventually lost interest and ran out of steam. But it would be an interesting idea for a moderately successful Vinland.

 

[Gloss]

Some more models, I tried estimating what would happen through consistent intermarriage between Beothuk/pre-Beothuk and Norse in terms of ancestry, some assumptions:
1. Beothuk/pre-Beothuk population in 1000 CE was 1000.
2. I assume that the Beothuk/pre-Beothuk population is stable at that level and won't increase nor decrease.
3. I assume that about 20 couples marry each year in the Beothuk/pre-Beothuk community and that 1 bride/groom is exchanged with the Norse community each year, so each community has 1 mixed marriage a year, this might seem small but it's still 5% on the Beothuk side and quite sizeable at the start for the Norse.

I also account for Norse immigration(I assume everyone immigrating is 100% Norse), the % will be % of Norse ancestry in the settler and native community and I will use the 2% initial growth model(3rd one in the first post), I also assume that everyone stays in Newfoundland for now:

Spoiler

1000 CE:
Settlers : 100%
Natives: 0%
1100 CE:
Settlers : 94.72%
Natives: 9.14%
1200 CE:
Settlers : 94.42%
Natives: 17.27%
1300 CE:
Settlers : 94.37%
Natives: 24.61%
1400 CE:
Settlers : 94.36%
Natives: 31.25%
1500 CE:
Settlers : 94.35%
Natives: 37.26%

Quite obviously 1 mixed marriage a year only really impacts the Norse community at the start of their colonies but if the Norse community quickly overtakes the Beothuk/pre-Beothuk community(as I think it will even in a conservative scenario) then the norse ancestry would stabilize at 94-95%.

This is what would happen with 2 mixed marriages a year(10% of Beothuks/pre-Beothuks marry a Norse person in the long term):

Spoiler

1000 CE:
Settlers : 100%
Natives: 0%
1100 CE:
Settlers : 89.18%
Natives: 16.54%
1200 CE:
Settlers : 88.91%
Natives: 29.69%
1300 CE:
Settlers : 88.92%
Natives: 40.43%
1400 CE:
Settlers : 88.95%
Natives: 49.23%
1500 CE:
Settlers : 88.98%
Natives: 56.44%

Interestingly after roughly 1200 CE the Beothuk/pre-Beothuk community would be so mixed with Norse ancestry that their impact on the Norse genome would be weaker than the 10 people/year, so the Norse ancestry starts very slightly raising, though by that point the local population is too large to be impacted by the annual migration I envisioned.

I hope my program is correct, but the results make sense to me at least. Ultimately the point is that the initial phase is what determines how mixed the Norse community is genetically, we can only loosely apply this to culture and religion and obviously my scenario only looks at Newfoundland and the assumptions are probably unlikely.

Edit: The Beothuk probably didn't live there yet, so I just added "pre-Beothuk", because ultimately I'm basing their population and general lifestyle on the Beothuk accounts and estimates.

 

[Gloss]

As one with a Catholic tradition, there would be growing influence from Latin on the language, at least on the lexical level (how Latinate words would actually be pronounced is a separate matter altogether) - the stronger Catholic identity here would mean that Latinate and general Romance influence would be stronger here than in the European Nordic languages, and retained as a result of religious conflict where the Vinlanders remained Catholic while everyone else was Lutheran (and the Vinlanders suffer for it until independence).

I disagree, the Norse while not illiterate would be far away from Latin centers of Europe and thus their knowledge of the language would be weaker, plus Icelander monks used the vernacular a lot more than other populations of Europe and I don't think this would really change here.
Plus I see no reason why the Norse would be particularly pro-Catholic in an alt-reformation scenario or that that would lead to more Latin words, it's hard to imagine a scenario where the Vinlanders won't use their vernacular and by the time the an alt-reformation comes around they surely wouldn't go the opposite direction and start using Latin.

 

[Gwyain]

I've gone back and forth about contributing to this thread, since I think most of what can be said about Vinland already has been. With that said, there are some implications that I don't think are touched on enough or at all so far, so I suppose I'll make some contribution.

With a model of relatively limited immigration and interaction as you posit in the OP (a model which I think is extremely likely), the developments from Vinland are largely going to be regional. There's going to be a great deal of effects on the American Northeast, and spreading out along the Eastern Seaboard, Great Lakes and Upper Mississippi over time. The impact to Mesoamerica or back home in Scandinavia and Europe I think are going to be limited to nonexistent, at least for a while (in my opinion, until roughly the 1500's). I'm not going to focus on the social aspects of any of that, since that's been argued back and forth to no end - for which I am as guilty as any - my thoughts on the matter can be seen in other threads linked in the OP. What I think hasn't been touched on enough however is the disease landscape.

@Gloss has it spot on for population growth, a 2-3% growth rate is extremely likely in the sorts of conditions prevalent in the Americas, with abundant land and few constraints from natural resources. I'd go further and suggest the 2-3% growth rate will remain pretty sustainable for a few centuries, with the caveat that there are likely to be a few periods when the population drops precipitously from disease. Many of the great diseases of death are simply not in Scandinavia circa 1000; the first waves of Measles and Smallpox didn't hit Norway and Iceland until the mid 13th century, and even the British Isles were relatively spared of massive epidemics until around that point. In virgin populations, diseases like smallpox could kill massive portions of the population (the mortality rate even in endemic communities was roughly 1/3 of infected individuals), with mortality rates close to 50% being common.

Using an initial 3% growth rate, including immigration, you might see something like this:
1000: ~200
1100: ~4,000
1200: ~75,000
1260: ~435,000 (roughly when Smallpox shows up in Iceland)
1262: ~200,000 (rapid decline in population following introduction of diseases)
1300: ~425,000 (slightly slower growth rates now that endemic diseases exist in the community, ~2%; population roughly recovered)
1400: ~3,000,000
1500: ~10,000,000 ( ~1.2%, this is an averaged rate, with lower growths of around 1% in the core due to less available space, and higher growth on the frontiers)

The end and beginning result are basically the same as what is proposed in the other models, but the middle tells a different story from one of just constant growth. The bolded period in the middle is likely to be one of crisis, both demographically and socially. Its likely to be a period of significant change in the society of Vinland as a result. Due to limited contact and sparse populations in the Americas, I don't think either disease spreads tremendously far outside the Vinland area of influence. Nearby groups will certainly be effected, but I don't see it spreading much past the upper Mississippi - certainly not to Mesoamerica.

Smallpox and measles are all well and good, but what isn't discussed is Rinderpest, the implications of which on the Americas especially so. North America were blessed in OTL to have never experienced an outbreak of the disease, but with an earlier introduction of cattle to the Americas, that may well change. For those that don't know much about it, Rinderpest is along with Smallpox one of the only two diseases humanity has wiped out. It is incredibly infectious and extraordinarily deadly - to the extent that 90% of all infected cattle would die. Rinderpest effects a number of other animals as well, among agricultural animals Sheep and Goats generally fair better and have much lower casualty rates to the disease. Elands, Water Buffalo, Cape Buffalo, and several deer species are nearly as susceptible as cattle. As far as bison, European Bison were susceptible to the disease, but at rates closer to Sheep and Goats. Effect on American Bison is unknown, but likely similar to their European cousins.

The mortality on cattle and deer species especially would have massive impact on Vinland. Obviously cattle themselves are incredibly important to Norse agriculture, but dear species such as white-tailed deer (one of the most effected species) are likely to make up an important component of more rural diets, and will certainly be important to the Amerindians nearby, as it was OTL. Die off in white-tailed deer in turn will have massive implications on the ecology of the American Northeast (but on the plus side, maybe no Lyme disease).

If Rinderpest makes the leap across the Atlantic, there's a good chance that it will come across at the same time as Measles. The two diseases were only just starting to diverge in the 13th century, and both diseases were comorbid during outbreaks in the British Isles at the time. Needless to say, the accompanying famine due to livestock death would only add further calamity to what I already posit will be a rough 13th century.

 

[Gloss]

I've gone back and forth about contributing to this thread, since I think most of what can be said about Vinland already has been. With that said, there are some implications that I don't think are touched on enough or at all so far, so I suppose I'll make some contribution.

With a model of relatively limited immigration and interaction as you posit in the OP (a model which I think is extremely likely), the developments from Vinland are largely going to be regional. There's going to be a great deal of effects on the American Northeast, and spreading out along the Eastern Seaboard, Great Lakes and Upper Mississippi over time. The impact to Mesoamerica or back home in Scandinavia and Europe I think are going to be limited to nonexistent, at least for a while (in my opinion, until roughly the 1500's). I'm not going to focus on the social aspects of any of that, since that's been argued back and forth to no end - for which I am as guilty as any - my thoughts on the matter can be seen in other threads linked in the OP. What I think hasn't been touched on enough however is the disease landscape.

@Gloss has it spot on for population growth, a 2-3% growth rate is extremely likely in the sorts of conditions prevalent in the Americas, with abundant land and few constraints from natural resources. I'd go further and suggest the 2-3% growth rate will remain pretty sustainable for a few centuries, with the caveat that there are likely to be a few periods when the population drops precipitously from disease. Many of the great diseases of death are simply not in Scandinavia circa 1000; the first waves of Measles and Smallpox didn't hit Norway and Iceland until the mid 13th century, and even the British Isles were relatively spared of massive epidemics until around that point. In virgin populations, diseases like smallpox could kill massive portions of the population (the mortality rate even in endemic communities was roughly 1/3 of infected individuals), with mortality rates close to 50% being common.

Using an initial 3% growth rate, including immigration, you might see something like this:
1000: ~200
1100: ~4,000
1200: ~75,000
1260: ~435,000 (roughly when Smallpox shows up in Iceland)
1262: ~200,000 (rapid decline in population following introduction of diseases)
1300: ~425,000 (slightly slower growth rates now that endemic diseases exist in the community, ~2%; population roughly recovered)
1400: ~3,000,000
1500: ~10,000,000 ( ~1.2%, this is an averaged rate, with lower growths of around 1% in the core due to less available space, and higher growth on the frontiers)

The end and beginning result are basically the same as what is proposed in the other models, but the middle tells a different story from one of just constant growth. The bolded period in the middle is likely to be one of crisis, both demographically and socially. Its likely to be a period of significant change in the society of Vinland as a result. Due to limited contact and sparse populations in the Americas, I don't think either disease spreads tremendously far outside the Vinland area of influence. Nearby groups will certainly be effected, but I don't see it spreading much past the upper Mississippi - certainly not to Mesoamerica.

Smallpox and measles are all well and good, but what isn't discussed is Rinderpest, the implications of which on the Americas especially so. North America were blessed in OTL to have never experienced an outbreak of the disease, but with an earlier introduction of cattle to the Americas, that may well change. For those that don't know much about it, Rinderpest is along with Smallpox one of the only two diseases humanity has wiped out. It is incredibly infectious and extraordinarily deadly - to the extent that 90% of all infected cattle would die. Rinderpest effects a number of other animals as well, among agricultural animals Sheep and Goats generally fair better and have much lower casualty rates to the disease. Elands, Water Buffalo, Cape Buffalo, and several deer species are nearly as susceptible as cattle. As far as bison, European Bison were susceptible to the disease, but at rates closer to Sheep and Goats. Effect on American Bison is unknown, but likely similar to their European cousins.

The mortality on cattle and deer species especially would have massive impact on Vinland. Obviously cattle themselves are incredibly important to Norse agriculture, but dear species such as white-tailed deer (one of the most effected species) are likely to make up an important component of more rural diets, and will certainly be important to the Amerindians nearby, as it was OTL. Die off in white-tailed deer in turn will have massive implications on the ecology of the American Northeast (but on the plus side, maybe no Lyme disease).

If Rinderpest makes the leap across the Atlantic, there's a good chance that it will come across at the same time as Measles. The two diseases were only just starting to diverge in the 13th century, and both diseases were comorbid during outbreaks in the British Isles at the time. Needless to say, the accompanying famine due to livestock death would only add further calamity to what I already posit will be a rough 13th century.

What do you think of my intermarriage model? I think the problem is that the way I'm modelling I just assume that one person is exchanged in each community(and that 10 people are added each year), which is not really how it works. Ultimately though I think any proper model that assumes that the mixed couple will have a larger impact should also assume that the migrant community will be composed of younger men and women and that thus those people also should have an outsized impact on the community's new births.

 

[Dan1988]

I disagree, the Norse while not illiterate would be far away from Latin centers of Europe and thus their knowledge of the language would be weaker, plus Icelander monks used the vernacular a lot more than other populations of Europe and I don't think this would really change here.

The reason I would assume that in that, in this case, the monasteries would become more important centers for Christianity instead of the more "conventional" structure of cathedrals and parish churches. Not to say there wouldn't be cathedrals, but that (much like in Ireland) the monasteries would take on far more imporances as centers of Christianity, Nordic culture, and also learning. Then again, I would assume immigration would be much more varied - not just from Christian communities in Scandinavia, but also even from Britain (I had an idea of transposing the Old English instrumental case into Old Vinlandic, though why I'm not sure, and it would be through contact with the English-speaking and Celtic worlds that additional immigration could come - and hence possibly also the addition of the Latin element, at least as one layer; furthermore, the nominative-accusative position of an Indo-European language like *Vinlandic would also show considerable influence from an indigenous substratum though such concepts like a proximative/obviative distinction in the 3rd person, which is connected with a direct-inverse morphological alignment that would also strengthen the existing Germanic-inherited case system). Later on, once the initial colonization is done and a Vinlandic people are recognizable, you could have additional inclusion of such people who have long fished in the Grand Banks, such as the Basque people and, IIRC, even Bretons and Galicians, plus the occasional stray ship intending for the Portuguese, Dutch, or French Empires, and getting lost on the way and ending up in Vinland.

The main idea here is that there's more than one way to get early Christianity in North America. Iceland had one way; Vinland, while sharing a similar governance model, went in a different way, primarily because of more direct royal involvement (IOW, more planned development that goes haywire where, in the way I originally thought about it - when I was young and stupid - you'd have Christians fleeing Norway en masse as the pagans tried to reassert the old religion). While there would also be stronger use of the vernacular, it and Latin would basically co-exist leading to a similar acculturation much as in European Scandinavian countries IOTL. So it would be a conflation of several different scenarios.

Plus I see no reason why the Norse would be particularly pro-Catholic in an alt-reformation scenario or that that would lead to more Latin words, it's hard to imagine a scenario where the Vinlanders won't use their vernacular and by the time the an alt-reformation comes around they surely wouldn't go the opposite direction and start using Latin.

At the time I was creating it, I was trying to eventually set up Vinland as some sort of Ireland and/or Quebec equivalent, which would explain why the Vinlanders would remain Catholic even with a Protestant ruling class. (Of course, this was before I started reading up on Newfoundland history for The Fallen Madonna, and realized some of my ideas were probably wrong.) At the same time, I was also assuming the vernacular would be used from the get-go (there's something to be said about probably importing an entire chancery standard from Nidaros, as well as a strong tradition of vernacular writing, but in Latin characters rather than runes [even in Iceland, runic material is rare] ) with Latin primarily used as a source of enriching the vocabulary instead of in place of Vinlandic. Indeed, I was also assuming a subset of Old Vinlandic would continue as a literary standard into the Middle and Modern Vinlandic periods, which I dubbed Classical Vinlandic (based, in part, on Bible translations and existing chancery and vernacular writing). Eventually, following from the above (and drawing on RL parallels from the linguistic history of Norwegian), eventually Danish would be imposed as a standard language - which would be resisted by Vinlanders, since it would be associated with Protestantism (religion as a marker of identity can lead to some weird things going on) - until the 19th century, when things would change as a result of the romantic movements and all that. (Clearly, I wasn't taking the butterfly effect into account there.) Then I'd have my Bokmal/Nynorsk equivalents (the latter through simply modernizing and simplyfing Classical Vinlandic to bring it closer to 19th century general Vinlandic speech), and all that, until when Vinland becomes independent of Denmark the Nynorsk equivalent wins out, but not without major influence from the Bokmal equivalent.

Yeah, at the time I was all over the place and didn't know the heck of what I was doing; if I decide to start it now, I'd do it entirely differently. However, even then, Einar Haugen's work is a good starting point for figuring out possible conlanging ideas - except that he primarily treats standard languages, not regional varieties, and since the reason Icelandic, Faroese, etc. are the way they are is because of regional variation in Norwegian, one would need to look more closely at that source material as well).

 

[Gwyain]

What do you think of my intermarriage model? I think the problem is that the way I'm modelling I just assume that one person is exchanged in each community(and that 10 people are added each year), which is not really how it works. Ultimately though I think any proper model that assumes that the mixed couple will have a larger impact should also assume that the migrant community will be composed of younger men and women and that thus those people also should have an outsized impact on the community's new births.

I'm probably not the best person to ask about that, I don't have much background in mathematical modelling. I think its going to hard to predict what sort of genetic effects occur from mixed marriages, but given the relatively small population size at the start, I wouldn't be surprised if there was a strong founder effect on the population. That'll make any sort of modelling even more complicated I would imagine.

 

[Gloss]

I'm probably not the best person to ask about that, I don't have much background in mathematical modelling. I think its going to hard to predict what sort of genetic effects occur from mixed marriages, but given the relatively small population size at the start, I wouldn't be surprised if there was a strong founder effect on the population. That'll make any sort of modelling even more complicated I would imagine.

I didn't use a "quantum" model, basically the second a person is exchanged between the 2 communities it's as if the entire genepool of each individual in each community becomes immediately more mixed. This let's me avoid having to create probabilistic models or to run simulations and see the average result, my model is too simple for that to begin with.

 

[Gabingston]

I'm probably not the best person to ask about that, I don't have much background in mathematical modelling. I think its going to hard to predict what sort of genetic effects occur from mixed marriages, but given the relatively small population size at the start, I wouldn't be surprised if there was a strong founder effect on the population. That'll make any sort of modelling even more complicated I would imagine.

A starting population of 200 used in population models in this thread is high enough to avoid inbreeding (although not genetic drift), and considering the continued immigration from Greenland, Iceland and Norway plus intermarriage with the natives, the Vinlanders should be fine genetically.

 

[Gloss]

A starting population of 200 used in population models in this thread is high enough to avoid inbreeding (although not genetic drift), and considering the continued immigration from Greenland, Iceland and Norway plus intermarriage with the natives, the Vinlanders should be fine genetically.

Founder effect don't apply to very small populations only, even if you take 10% of a 2million sized populaiton, it's likely that you will end up with people that have a different frequency of any given allele, wouldn't that still be a founder effect, just weaker?

 

[Jürgen]

What do you think of my intermarriage model? I think the problem is that the way I'm modelling I just assume that one person is exchanged in each community(and that 10 people are added each year), which is not really how it works. Ultimately though I think any proper model that assumes that the mixed couple will have a larger impact should also assume that the migrant community will be composed of younger men and women and that thus those people also should have an outsized impact on the community's new births.

Intermarriage will be pretty likely, the bigger question is whether the proto-Beothuk would survive long term. But in the short term the first century and half, they would likely do pretty well. The indigenous population of Newfoundland seemed to be centered in Exploit Valley and Notre Dame Bay, they likely migrated between the bay and the inner valley in a similar pattern to stone age Scandinavian hunter-fishers. With intermarriage with the Norse we likely see a shift to a more sedentary lifestyle, likely mainly as fishermen but with limited agriculture or gardening and herding, this shift will likely result in a population increase.

The good new for their long term survival is that they tend to live in the less interesting part of the island from a Norse POV, while Exploit Valley is one of the better place for agriculture on the island, it’s less interesting than the south and west of Newfoundland and the Norse would be far more interested in the land around the Bay of St. Lawrence. They will survive the plagues of the 13th century, as their European admixture make them more resistant, but it will likely result in decrease in native admixture in them (the same will likely happen to the Norse but to much lesser extent).

So after 1200 you will simply have a mestizo population of coastal fishermen populating the north coast and Exploit Valley, they may still speak their own language or having shifted to Norse or a creole version. They will be Christians and have the same technology as the Norse. They will political be organized in a peasant republic with a elected chieftain (the title the Norse used for non-heritable leaders). They will send representation to the annual Newfoundland Thing. I expect Newfoundland stabilizing with a population of around 150-200k of these around 10.000 people will belong to this mestizo group.

As a general thing I expect native or mestizo groups mainly to survive in areas with is not really that interesting to the Norse in their first or second expansion into a region. You can see similarity to the survival of Romansh speaker in the Alps, who survived disappeared in valleys which lead somewhere and survived in valley leading nowhere.