Long Live Sacred Germany: The Oster Conspiracy | Alternate Timeline

[Sphinx]

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Long Live Sacred Germany: The Oster Conspiracy
"He who would live must fight. He who doesn't wish to fight in this world has not the right to exist." - Adolf Hitler

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"Do not forget, brothers, that dagger which was plunged into our heartland one hundred years ago, the bastard state of Britain and France which today remains an ugly blemish on the face of Europe."
— Denis Henning-Schmidt, Leader of the "German Revivalist Movement", 2018

He had never felt so tired.

Even the familiar patter-patter of rain, which usually calmed him, did not help his mood. In fact, even as he stared at the raindrops racing down the glass window of his office, his mind had yet to return to London.

He was still in Munich, in that awful room with the suffocating air of threats and schemes, and the soulless glare of those clear blue eyes burned in his mind. It felt as if it had taken his entire strength and spirit to stare back, to stare back at that demon of a man and to say, no.

Hitler had almost appeared shocked when Chamberlain concluded the conference. The confident air of the triumphant left him then, but he was not deflated; instead immediately his expression had set into a new mask of cold hatred. Chamberlain remembered clearly now how he felt when Hitler shook his hand, when he smiled and waved for the cameras; he had felt nothing but hatred. In every look there was the undertone of threats, in every word the bitter taste of vengefulness.

Neville Chamberlain shook his head, trying to clear his mind of the nasty memories and worries plaguing him, but he could not shake himself fully free. Upon his return, "peace for our time," he had declared; yet his certainty had been as fake as Hitler's handshakes. Everywhere he found enemies. Back at Munich, it was not just the Germans and Italians who tussled with him, but Britain's supposed premier ally had attacked him from the rear. The French had been ready to sign the Sudetenland Compromise, and had not taken his initial indecisiveness or his finalistic refusal of the agreement well. At home, he had immediately been lambasted by his own allies for his sudden shift of heart, for his abandonment of appeasement which made him doubt what his heart refused to; while the agitator Churchill had the gall to still call him weak and escalate his commentary to demands of a reversal of Germany's militarisation of the Rhineland and the Anschluss. Even within himself, a fire raged.

That was the source of his fatigue. The endless struggle without, and within.

Suddenly starting, he noticed that the rain was beginning to subside. A glance at the clock told him nearly an hour had passed since his musings began, an hour wasted.

Yet even as he steeled himself and forced his body to get back to the reports on his desk, back to his job as the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, even as he pushed the blue eyes of death as far back in his mind as he could, one question continued to scream at him above all else.

Had he done the right thing?

 

[Sphinx]

What if Britain had stood firm and abandoned the policy of appeasement earlier, leading to the failure of the Munich Conference?

This Timeline will explore one possible answer to that question, beginning in 1938 with Hitler having just been refused the Sudetenland on a silver platter. The events unleashed by this momentous turn in history will snowball into a very different world from the one we know, though even in this timeline; Chamberlain is lambasted as a failure and his abandonment of appeasement is seen as a strategic mistake.

Note: I will only develop this timeline if there is enough interest in it. Unfortunately, I am quite busy and thus updates are likely to be sporadic and with large spaces in between. I apologise in advance.

 

[duckie]

Mayby with luck, their will be no "Venlo Incident" in this timeline.

 

[Sphinx]

Mayby with luck, their will be no "Venlo Incident" in this timeline.

A "be careful what you wish for" situation...

 

[Flavius Iulius Maiorianus]

This premise has always fascinated me, so I say go ahead and do it!

 

[NoMommsen]

This premise has always fascinated me, so I say go ahead and do it!

Yep, a premise often invoked but rarely properly carried out ... and through. ... would like to see this done.

 

[Flavius Iulius Maiorianus]

Yep, a premise often invoked but rarely properly carried out ... and through. ... would like to see this done.

Out of curiosity, do you know how much damage the NSDAP had done to Germany by that point? Had all of their leading academics fled yet? Were their universities still world class? How badly was the economy messed up by 1938?

 

[NoMommsen]

Out of curiosity, do you know how much damage the NSDAP had done to Germany by that point?

... define 'damage'... ?The Gestapo was somewhat feared but OTOH the populace had its way working around some 'Blockwardens' and similar and not yet lost its ability to make jokes about 'their' leadership.

Had all of their leading academics fled yet?

... nope ... not all (also a question what kind of academics you have in mind: human arts or rather 'natural laws' and engeneering

Were their universities still world class?

... by 'n large: yes.
... if you avoid some 'stranger' classes about 'aryan physics, racial hygiene (... though ... even in scandinavia at that time rendered a 'serious' science ...) you were not obliged to attend.
... or as much as you visited Marxism-Leninism in the GDR (though there you were obliged to visit)

How badly was the economy messed up by 1938?

... better ask about that the chorus of the Jeschiwa of Tooze ("Wages of destruction") adorers Jeschiwa here around ...

 

[Flavius Iulius Maiorianus]

better ask about that the chorus of the Jeschiwa of Tooze ("Wages of destruction") adorers Jeschiwa here around

What do you mean by this? Tooze's work seems to be well regarded and respected among historians.

nope ... not all (also a question what kind of academics you have in mind: human arts or rather 'natural laws' and engeneering

Mostly science and engineering.

 

[Rufus]

though even in this timeline; Chamberlain is lambasted as a failure and his abandonment of appeasement is seen as a strategic mistake.

Great premise. Today most people just assume that, if it wasn’t for Britain’s policy of ’Appeasement’, things would’ve automatically turned out better. So I look forward to world where Chamberlain is seen as a failure even without appeasement.

 

[Ahab]

Mostly science and engineering.

Scientists, engineers, doctors, city planners, you name it.. they all happily joined the nazis.
If you could link your field of study in some way to racial studies or the conquest of the world? You would even get some funding.

 

[1962strat]

I've looked for a timeline with this scenario before and was disappointed to find none, so I hope you continue it.

As some constructive criticism, I think the beginning lacks some insight into why Chamberlain decided differently. I think you could include something about the information he got from the conspirators, who OTL met with Halifax, and find some reason that led him to put more faith in their promises.

A large reason the Brits were so reluctant to go to war OTL were also pretty inaccurate perceptions of what an air war with Germany would be. The effectiveness of strategic bombing was wildly overstated, and they also thought the Luftwaffe was way bigger than it actually was. Based on this, they expected massive destruction in London in the event of a war, and that led them to be more cautious. Perhaps more intelligence in this area could help the decision as well.

 

[Mitridates the Great]

I understand that it's the first chapter and you couldn't reveal everything there, but I'm rooting for @1962strat on this: it would be nice to at least imply that Chamberlain has some kind of plan or reason for doing this.

The way it is written is all Chamberlain complaining that his rivals accuse him of being incompetent and criticize him for changing his mind.

Of course, since it's the first chapter, I still can't give a more elaborate opinion than "interesting premise, I want to see how you develop it."

 

[phillymoman1975]

Subscribed; very interested to see where you may take this!

 

[Sphinx]

This premise has always fascinated me, so I say go ahead and do it!

Yep, a premise often invoked but rarely properly carried out ... and through. ... would like to see this done.

Thank you, honestly I'm a little surprised at the level of interest since my first timeline flopped. I hope I don't disappoint!

Great premise. Today most people just assume that, if it wasn’t for Britain’s policy of ’Appeasement’, things would’ve automatically turned out better. So I look forward to world where Chamberlain is seen as a failure even without appeasement.

Yes I am a little sick of everyone acting as though appeasement was the sole reason for WWII same way how some go, "oh but if Hitler had only listened to his generals...!

Poor Chamberlain though.

Subscribed; very interested to see where you may take this!

Thanks for the support!

I've looked for a timeline with this scenario before and was disappointed to find none, so I hope you continue it.

As some constructive criticism, I think the beginning lacks some insight into why Chamberlain decided differently. I think you could include something about the information he got from the conspirators, who OTL met with Halifax, and find some reason that led him to put more faith in their promises.

A large reason the Brits were so reluctant to go to war OTL were also pretty inaccurate perceptions of what an air war with Germany would be. The effectiveness of strategic bombing was wildly overstated, and they also thought the Luftwaffe was way bigger than it actually was. Based on this, they expected massive destruction in London in the event of a war, and that led them to be more cautious. Perhaps more intelligence in this area could help the decision as well.

I understand that it's the first chapter and you couldn't reveal everything there, but I'm rooting for @1962strat on this: it would be nice to at least imply that Chamberlain has some kind of plan or reason for doing this.

The way it is written is all Chamberlain complaining that his rivals accuse him of being incompetent and criticize him for changing his mind.

Of course, since it's the first chapter, I still can't give a more elaborate opinion than "interesting premise, I want to see how you develop it."

Thank you both especially for the criticism. I plan to go a little backwards in time to try and actually present the POD(s) in the next chapter; this prologue was honestly just a way to see if enough interest was there for this effort to be worth it.

Although, I'll be honest, I'm not 100% yet on what POD exactly will make Chamberlain change his mind quite suddenly. Some ideas, nothing concrete.


In an unrelated question, what do people think the chances of Czechoslovakia letting in the Red Army are if they are well into a harsh war with Germany? What chances of Romania/Poland letting them through?

Also that comment from the fictional 2018 fascist shouldn't be ignored...

 

[1962strat]

What chances of Romania/Poland letting them through?

Poland and Romania 0%. Poland fought an existential war against them not 20 years ago, and Romania has disputed territory they can't hope to keep that way.

In an unrelated question, what do people think the chances of Czechoslovakia letting in the Red Army are if they are well into a harsh war with Germany?

Even if the Czechs wanted, which they probably don't, they have no way to make it happen.

I also think it probably wouldn't even come to that. Germany in 38' wasn't nearly as prepared as in 39', and Czechslovakia is a tough nut to crack. If France and Poland join in, it's over before it happens. It (mostly) wasn't ideological concerns that drove the military to oppose Hitler here, their position was just that fucking hopeless.

 

[RedSword12]

Even if the Czechs wanted, which they probably don't, they have no way to make it happen.

I also think it probably wouldn't even come to that. Germany in 38' wasn't nearly as prepared as in 39', and Czechslovakia is a tough nut to crack. If France and Poland join in, it's over before it happens. It (mostly) wasn't ideological concerns that drove the military to oppose Hitler here, their position was just that fucking hopeless.

The Czechs did want it. Standing agreements between the USSR and Czechoslovakia promised Soviet support in the case of invasion. The Red Army deployed on the Polish-Soviet border, poised to march through Poland into Czechoslovakia if Stalin decided to do so. In the event, Stalin, seeing that France and Britain were not committed to defending Czechoslovak independence, and with all the damage that the Great Purge had caused to the military, went back on his word and told the Czechs that he could only promise to send them warplanes, but without pilots and aircrews. With the English at last standing firm to contain fascism, for which Litvinov had been lobbying for years, Stalin might feel emboldened to send troops through Poland into Czechoslovakia. This also depends on if the Polish government manages to smooth things over with Stalin, as it had been trying to do for a while at this point.

 

[lukedalton]

Yes I am a little sick of everyone acting as though appeasement was the sole reason for WWII same way how some go, "oh but if Hitler had only listened to his generals...!

Problem is that appeasement is basically the main reason Germany was so succesfull and WWII started, sure it's very probable that some other more limited conflict will start in Europe and Asia but no Czechoslovackia and Germany don't have the resource for WWII and need to slow his rearmament otherwise her economy go bust.
Not considering that Germany is basically alone, Benny will not intervene as Italy is not ready, still wasting men and material in Spain and nobody in Rome had the stomach to fight the Entente to support Berlin unless there is a clear winner and the Pact of Steel has not been signed at the moment

 

[Sphinx]

Poland and Romania 0%. Poland fought an existential war against them not 20 years ago, and Romania has disputed territory they can't hope to keep that way.

Even if the Czechs wanted, which they probably don't, they have no way to make it happen.

I also think it probably wouldn't even come to that. Germany in 38' wasn't nearly as prepared as in 39', and Czechslovakia is a tough nut to crack. If France and Poland join in, it's over before it happens. It (mostly) wasn't ideological concerns that drove the military to oppose Hitler here, their position was just that fucking hopeless.

The Czechs did want it. Standing agreements between the USSR and Czechoslovakia promised Soviet support in the case of invasion. The Red Army deployed on the Polish-Soviet border, poised to march through Poland into Czechoslovakia if Stalin decided to do so. In the event, Stalin, seeing that France and Britain were not committed to defending Czechoslovak independence, and with all the damage that the Great Purge had caused to the military, went back on his word and told the Czechs that he could only promise to send them warplanes, but without pilots and aircrews. With the English at last standing firm to contain fascism, for which Litvinov had been lobbying for years, Stalin might feel emboldened to send troops through Poland into Czechoslovakia. This also depends on if the Polish government manages to smooth things over with Stalin, as it had been trying to do for a while at this point.

Thanks for the insight.

The German situation was indeed quite laughable in 1938, and frankly, even in 1939. Germany rolled a LOT of sixes to get as far as they did OTL.

I do agree with RedSword12 regarding the Czechoslovak and Soviet agreements, I know the USSR tried very hard to get itself or the Czechoslovaks involved in the Munich Conference and tried very hard to get a defensive bloc with France and the UK against Germany. The biggest problem remains passage through to Czechoslovakia, Poland is unfriendly to the USSR obviously but there is also the issue of Zalozie with Czechoslovakia.

Something of a "Third Balkan War" comes to mind...

 

[Sphinx]

Problem is that appeasement is basically the main reason Germany was so succesfull and WWII started, sure it's very probable that some other more limited conflict will start in Europe and Asia but no Czechoslovackia and Germany don't have the resource for WWII and need to slow his rearmament otherwise her economy go bust.
Not considering that Germany is basically alone, Benny will not intervene as Italy is not ready, still wasting men and material in Spain and nobody in Rome had the stomach to fight the Entente to support Berlin unless there is a clear winner and the Pact of Steel has not been signed at the moment

I disagree.

People forget, it was not just Germany that spent 1933-1939 rearming. The time bought by appeasement was utterly critical for the British rearmament especially post-1938 and to a lesser extent French rearmament also, in fact buying time rather than necessarily aiming for completely avoiding war was one of the big reasons behind Munich.

Appeasement simply was not the reason for German success. The British and French needed that time just as much as Germany did, it's just that Germany of course always planned to go on an offensive crusade Eastward since 1933 and so used its time better. It also was incredibly lucky in a lot of instances, such as French refusing to push into Germany during Case Weiss, the Poles abandoning their own original plans of a fighting retreat to the Vistula, the Benelux somehow not seeing the writing on the wall even after Denmark and Norway were invaded, the fact Romania did not come to Poland's aid despite their alliance, etc.

What do you think would happen if the French and British as well as the Poles intervened immediately in 1933? Not anything good- civil war possibly in France, massive reluctance on the part of the British, and a slogging match in the East; maybe an eventual toppling of Hitler only to replace an already extremely bitter Germany with an utterly hateful and vengeful one. Kicking the can down the road even further.

Also, the Entente being seen as the aggressors on an 'innocent' victim would have massive ramifications down the line too.