Lands of Red and Gold, Act II

Superior spices? Aururian spices fill a different range of tastes than Moluccan ones, and it's all up to a matter of taste which flavors are better, so you can't really judge them in terms of relative quality. The superiority within a wide variety of spices is that you can meet the precise preferences of more people, and thus secure more reliable sales.

I was generalising, but the Aururian Sweet Pepper is simply a stronger spice than ordinary Black Pepper, far and away one of the most important spices out of Indonesia. It's easier to transport it to Europe as the same quantity is worth more. Of course this doesn't mean the total end to the spice trade elsewhere, but it would cause a very noticeable shift in relative wealth.
 
Speaking of charcoal, how good are wattles for charcoal production? Could this lead to Iberia, Sicily, or North Africa getting more of an industrial base?

All of those regions are right out for an industrial revolution, but when industrialization does reach there it would be interesting to see them adopting Aururian charcoal production technology.

The best candidate seems to be Sicily, as Jared noted, it had an agricultural revolution. Unlike Spain, Sicily doesn't have much mineral coal. Industrialization would most likely take a while to reach there, however.

I was generalising, but the Aururian Sweet Pepper is simply a stronger spice than ordinary Black Pepper, far and away one of the most important spices out of Indonesia. It's easier to transport it to Europe as the same quantity is worth more. Of course this doesn't mean the total end to the spice trade elsewhere, but it would cause a very noticeable shift in relative wealth.

Sweet peppers, as Jared noted before, have been cultivated in Europe, so it's value to Aururia would be much diminished by now.
 
All of those regions are right out for an industrial revolution, but when industrialization does reach there it would be interesting to see them adopting Aururian charcoal production technology.

The best candidate seems to be Sicily, as Jared noted, it had an agricultural revolution. Unlike Spain, Sicily doesn't have much mineral coal. Industrialization would most likely take a while to reach there, however.

I'd assume wattles would cause an agricultural revolution wherever they were imported, and they'd be taken up faster than potatoes since they wouldn't be as "weird" to European sensibilities. Since wattles OTL are invasive in Mediterranean climates, I'd be guessing the whole population of that area will increase by quite a bit.

Spain has coal in Asturias and Léon, and will no doubt see its population recover from the Aururian plagues faster because of the favourable conditions for Aururian crops. Could Spain be one of the early places industrialisation spreads to?
 
I'd assume wattles would cause an agricultural revolution wherever they were imported, and they'd be taken up faster than potatoes since they wouldn't be as "weird" to European sensibilities. Since wattles OTL are invasive in Mediterranean climates, I'd be guessing the whole population of that area will increase by quite a bit.

Spain has coal in Asturias and Léon, and will no doubt see its population recover from the Aururian plagues faster because of the favourable conditions for Aururian crops. Could Spain be one of the early places industrialisation spreads to?

For Spain, I would say no. The inflation that came with New World gold wrecked the Spanish economy for centuries, and the important institutional developments aren't there either, so early industrialization is implausible. Later industrialization is plausible, say in the mid 19th century perhaps, with the agricultural revolution coming with Aururian crops. There are many more details involved, but I'm just putting out a quick estimate.
 
I was generalising, but the Aururian Sweet Pepper is simply a stronger spice than ordinary Black Pepper, far and away one of the most important spices out of Indonesia. It's easier to transport it to Europe as the same quantity is worth more. Of course this doesn't mean the total end to the spice trade elsewhere, but it would cause a very noticeable shift in relative wealth.

I've eaten them before since they will grow in the bay area and someone or some organization will plant them out one in a blue moon. They aren't like piper spp. in taste really, they have the kick but not the same pungency with a different burn and minor tingle and a hint of sweetness along with myrtle like undertone.

It's unique enough to have it stand out on its own, but I could see it being perceived as an 'inferior' pepper to buyers much like the wonderful tasting Grain of Paradise being perceived as a cheap black pepper substitute.
 
I've eaten them before since they will grow in the bay area and someone or some organization will plant them out one in a blue moon. They aren't like piper spp. in taste really, they have the kick but not the same pungency with a different burn and minor tingle and a hint of sweetness along with myrtle like undertone.

It's unique enough to have it stand out on its own, but I could see it being perceived as an 'inferior' pepper to buyers much like the wonderful tasting Grain of Paradise being perceived as a cheap black pepper substitute.

I personally prefer the Aururian pepper (at least Tasmannia lanceolata, I've never had any other ones) to regular pepper. But cuisine seems to be a very variable thing as to how it evolved, so I see no reason why it couldn't find plenty of uses in any culture's cuisine. I know from experience you can make most any recipe better/more unique if you add Aururian pepper to it.
 
You’re welcome. I’ve got to say though, this discussion has been very stimulating to me, but I think it’s bungled up the thread enough :p. I doubt that most other posters would enjoy seeing such a long back-and-forth in the thread as much as I.
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Fair comment. I'll park most of this discussion (with a few minor exceptions I've taken up below since I think that they are of more general interest) for a PM discussion. That won't be particularly soon; I've been rather flat out with life things the last few weeks (even ITWP has seen only a couple of sporadic updates).

It’s an elephant in the room I’ve been avoiding thus far :p. But yes, rural industry was an important prelude to the Industrial Revolution, and a key instigator of overall economic growth, without which the Industrial Revolution would not have even happened.

What happens with the Hunter (or at least the broad outline) will probably be known after at most half a dozen more updates. It's just that with most of my writing time spent on ITWP (and less writing time), that may take a while. Without wanting to give too much away, I can say that the Hunter doesn't wreck everything. Whether in conquest or failure, he has never been aiming for destruction for the sake of it. Which is not to say that some things can't be destroyed by accident or resistance, but he won't be imposing a Carthaginian peace on his enemies.

The problem with Aotearoa then would be whether they can keep up production to a degree which would bear a growing industry in Aururia? Of course, the Nuttana hold influence there, but so do the French.

I'm mostly commenting on the foreign policy aspects here (leaving the rest to any future PM discussions). Aotearoa is a potentially great source of raw materials such as New Zealand flax and other suitable production. NZ flax grows abundantly, and while it has plenty of domestic uses (their main fibre for clothing, amongst much else), there's enough for export. In the past their exports were limited by their own relatively small shipping, and their small export markets. With the broader world opened up, their production potential is huge.

It's unlikely that Aotearoa will ever be fully united - not until a nineteenth-century level of technology, at least - and so there will be plenty of scope for different powers to play for influence and raw material production. Even if the Nuttana have access to the raw material export production of, say, a third of Aotearoa, that would be an order of magnitude higher than anything they would be likely to be able to set up in Patagonia. At least for a while. So Aotearoa will continue to be one of their prime areas for seeking semi-colonial influence.

To specify, what you describe as silk mechanization leading to an industrial revolution is not what an industrial revolution is. An industrial revolution is a movement operationalised in terms of macro-inventions and micro-inventions. A movement, in essence, of technological innovation revolutionizing several industries with macro-inventions, with a series of micro-inventions representing trends in technological innovation, leading to the development of an "engineering industry".

A full-scale industrial revolution would naturally spread to encompass more than just one industry segment, sure. Silk mechanisation alone does not an industrial revolution make. But things have to start somewhere. In OTL, it was essentially the shift of textile production from small-scale cottage industries to a factory system. Once the idea of a factory system is there, and the associated techniques, it can spread to all sorts of other areas, but textiles appears to be one of the main ways of getting things started. (With one exception that I'll take up via PM, it's a bit distracting here).

My view is that in the right circumstances, any of several textiles would be possible to get things started. Cotton offered the highest rates of return and price elasticity of demand, and also had certain other peculiarities within England in terms of the laws for the forms in which it could be imported, which helped. But I believe that other fibres, in the right circumstances, could also lead to the virtuous circle of increasing returns which made it viable to convert to a factory system. Not as fast as cotton, but fast enough.

Wool and silk both have potential to do so. (Flax/linen, less so, but not impossible). Even in OTL, things came awfully close to having the full factory system with silk in England before cotton textiles really took off in factories. (The Derby silk mill is arguably using the factory system already).

That's the OTL definition, certainly. (Or the mainstream one, at least.)

The shortcoming of silk in itself is, as I said before, the price elasticity of demand. More price-responsive markets sustain the engineering industry (and thus sustain an industrial revolution). Compared to cotton, silk was quite small. It did manage to spawn some marvelous machines of its own, the Jacquard loom and the Vaucanson loom for example, which, unlike machines made for the cotton industry, never revolutionized much at all. Silk as an industry never had the same level of growth that cotton did, silk knitting was simply not much of a global industry.

The question I'm looking at is not whether silk could have as good a level of growth as cotton; it couldn't. I'm looking at whether, in the right circumstances, it was feasible for it to become the driving part of an indigenous industrial revolution that proceeded without external inspiration. There needs to be several factors coming together, but some of the various examples in OTL (the Derby Silk Mill, the French silk industry, etc) suggest to me that it's possible to have something like that develop to the point where it could be argued ATL (with a straight face) to be an example of an industrial revolution, or more precisely where one started.

So that leaves more room for pastoralism to grow rather than agriculture. I think too that hunter-gatherers could evolve into pastoralist nomads, and they would have the time. It’d probably be for centuries that inland Aururians would be free of outside influence, even from the Aururian civilizations, let alone Europeans. The demographic changes would be immense, one group, whichever it is, successfully become pastoralists might end up expanding where possible, and either absorb hunter-gathers or push them aside entirely. If the nomadic pastoralists pick up iron-working then that would give them an even greater technological advantage.

Pastoralism is only really possible where there's enough water for the herds. Which leads to the problems of drought. Much of Aururia is far too dry and subject to year-long droughts which will whack the populations of both the herds and the herders. The Yalatji/Butjupa survive this via artesian water, and because they are in the generally higher rainfall areas.

Camels are an exception, but I don't know if a pastoralist society is possible based on camels alone. Cattle are generally better, since they give milk as well as meat.

So this would essentially mean pastoralism around the wetter fringes: as you noted, the Top End (Arnhem Land) and to a lesser degree the Kimberleys (northwestern WA).

Cattle-based pastoralism would be limited to good grazing lands, and would, like for Camel-based pastoralism, should have plenty of time to evolve on its own. I just took a quick look at an Australian biome map and it seems that the rangelands of the Northern Territory and Northern Western Australia seem the obvious place where cattle-based pastoralism would develop considering that that’s where cattle would’ve first started spreading (from the Portuguese, IIRC? Even if the Yalatji-Butjupa are more adamant at curtailing the spread of feral herds). Where and when would you say cattle herds could spread far enough for hunter-gatherers to develop pastoralism?

The situation with the Yalatji-Butjupa is that they collect any feral herds and use them themselves. It's not that they don't are trying to prevent cattle spreading, just that they see feral cattle as a cheap way to boost their herds.

It's hard to say exactly how fast cattle would spread along the Top End, but maybe 1750-1780 or so.

The feral camel distribution in Australia is pretty much most dense in the red heart.

Feral camels are densest there because that's where they were released first, and until relatively recent culling, that's where they were allowed to spread from.

Camel pastoralism in the Sahara is centered in areas where rainfall is moderate (in terms of the Sahara, of course), such as the areas of the Tuareg. Potential expansion of camel-herding through larger areas of the outback is possible, but I think the center for camel pastoralism might be Central Australia. Another reason hunter-gatherers might take up the camels is the devastation camels bring upon traditional food sources.

Certainly drier and worse-off regions have been home to some camel herding, like the Gobi.

Camels can certainly survive in the outback. The harder question to answer is whether the droughts are bad enough to stop a pastoralist culture developing. Good years would be very good, but bad years could lead to collapses in population of both camel herds and herders.

In OTL, in the Gobi, even camels need to drink. Admittedly there they do it for much of the year by eating snow instead, but at least that's snow which is there predictably for years.

What I'd like to work out is whether the Gobi's rainfall (though low) is better distributed from year to year. What average rainfall charts of Australia tend not to show is how much the rainfall varies from year to year. An average rainfall of 250mm per year doesn't sound too bad until you realise that it might be 1250 mm one year, dumped in a couple of storms, and then 0mm for the next four years.

I don't know whether the Gobi is the same, or if the rainfall is more regular.

Would the possible spread of nomads to places where deposits are help or hinder efforts of outsiders to either discover or exploit said deposits? When it comes to those like Argyle, it would require some technology to mine which I don’t think the nomads would have, and even if the place is surveyed, I don’t think the people who live there would want outsiders coming in to set up operations without a fight.

I'd say that on the whole nomads would make things worse. Nomads would have more inclination to drive out any visitors, since nomads have historically tended to look down on settled people. Even setting that aside, though, discovering and exploiting the northern resources (gold, diamonds etc) probably requires at least a nineteenth if not twentieth century level of technology. Especially large-scale engineering.

Speaking of charcoal, how good are wattles for charcoal production? Could this lead to Iberia, Sicily, or North Africa getting more of an industrial base?

Wattles do produce wood, but they're not the best for the scale of charcoal production which would be needed to allow an industrial base in Sicily or North Africa. Some of the fast-growing eucalypts are better, since they just produce much more timber.

Wattles are important because it means there's enough wood available for cooking and food preservation, which means that smoking meat is viable, and which has its implications for cuisine. (One of the posts I'm working on will develop that topic further.)

Could this lead to a Mfecane-type situation in any part of Aururia, or
will this be more of a "peaceful" expansion and displacement of various groups?

The closest comparison to the Mfecane would probably the Hunter's rise, more than anything else. For other circumstances, such as say the Kiyungu expansion along the Queensland coast, it's more steady displacement than the sort of spread of warfare and rapid disruption which created the Mfecane.

I'm not sure how much time has passed TL wise since the last time I asked about this, but how are things going in *Indonesia these days? I gather that the superior spices from Aururia have done a number on the economies up there, and given the greater wealth of VOC has colonisation there gone faster? Actually more generally what sort of date are we up to in the world outside Aururia?

In general terms, the timeline is up to about 1710-1720. I haven't covered *Indonesia or much of the rest of the world in any detail for a while, because in Act II I'm deliberately going for an Aururian focus with the rest of the world only being seen as Aururia sees it: i.e. through occasional travellers reports and rumours.

In very general terms, in *Indonesia the greater wealth flowing into the European trading companies (i.e. the VOC and a couple of smaller outliers) has seen more colonial influence and in some cases direct conquest than at the same stage as in OTL.

The other effect is that competition from Aururian spices, specifically sweet peppers, has killed much of the export market for true peppers. (More on this below). This has consequences for the pepper-growing regions of Indonesia. On the one hand loss of export income and ability to trade for weapons, but on the other hand less motivation for the VOC to expand into those areas too.

There are other effects on the local societies too, but that would need to wait until I'm able to find the time to research and write an instalment on Indonesia (unless someone with a greater knowledge of Indonesia in this era could assist).

Superior spices? Aururian spices fill a different range of tastes than Moluccan ones, and it's all up to a matter of taste which flavors are better, so you can't really judge them in terms of relative quality. The superiority within a wide variety of spices is that you can meet the precise preferences of more people, and thus secure more reliable sales.

I was generalising, but the Aururian Sweet Pepper is simply a stronger spice than ordinary Black Pepper, far and away one of the most important spices out of Indonesia. It's easier to transport it to Europe as the same quantity is worth more. Of course this doesn't mean the total end to the spice trade elsewhere, but it would cause a very noticeable shift in relative wealth.

I've eaten them before since they will grow in the bay area and someone or some organization will plant them out one in a blue moon. They aren't like piper spp. in taste really, they have the kick but not the same pungency with a different burn and minor tingle and a hint of sweetness along with myrtle like undertone.

It's unique enough to have it stand out on its own, but I could see it being perceived as an 'inferior' pepper to buyers much like the wonderful tasting Grain of Paradise being perceived as a cheap black pepper substitute.

I personally prefer the Aururian pepper (at least Tasmannia lanceolata, I've never had any other ones) to regular pepper. But cuisine seems to be a very variable thing as to how it evolved, so I see no reason why it couldn't find plenty of uses in any culture's cuisine. I know from experience you can make most any recipe better/more unique if you add Aururian pepper to it.

An interesting discussion of alternate cuisine. :D

It's hard to predict everything about how tastes for alternate spices will go. As Revachah noted, grains of paradise were popular in Europe for a while (at times as much or more so than pepper), but then interest waned for a variety of factors. They came to be seen first as a cheaper pepper substitute, then mostly for medicinal uses, then mostly not used at all.

However, generalising from the biggest other example of introduction of new spices that we know of (the Americas), it's possible to say that there are times when new spices simply supplement existing spices, and times when they replace existing spices.

Despite contributing many crops to world cuisine, the Americas did not actually introduce many new spices for export. But they had a few, and a couple of examples are interesting. Vanilla simply became an (expensive) new flavouring which was added to cuisine. Chilli peppers, on the other hand, spread and also killed an existing spice.

Long peppers (which have been mentioned before in LoRaG, though a while ago) were an important spice pre-1492, being hotter than regular peppers. Chilli peppers more or less killed their export market to Europe, and to a lesser degree some other regions.

Of course, this comparison is in terms of export markets. In the areas around where the spices are actually grown, it's a different story. Long peppers are still used in Indian, Indonesian and Malaysian cuisine (amongst several other places). But they are an extremely minor part of the cuisine of Europe, which was once a major export market.

So for the purposes of this TL, I've gone with the assumption that sweet peppers will displace most (though not all) of the export market for true peppers, at least in terms of Europe and European colonies in the Americas. In *Indonesia and India, they will be a supplement to the cuisine, not a replacement for existing peppers. (I'm not sure how this will play out in other areas such as China and Japan).

All of those regions are right out for an industrial revolution, but when industrialization does reach there it would be interesting to see them adopting Aururian charcoal production technology.

The best candidate seems to be Sicily, as Jared noted, it had an agricultural revolution. Unlike Spain, Sicily doesn't have much mineral coal. Industrialization would most likely take a while to reach there, however.

I don't see Sicily having an indigenous industrial revolution, but it may be an early adopter.

I'd assume wattles would cause an agricultural revolution wherever they were imported, and they'd be taken up faster than potatoes since they wouldn't be as "weird" to European sensibilities. Since wattles OTL are invasive in Mediterranean climates, I'd be guessing the whole population of that area will increase by quite a bit.

The only real limitation on wattles is that their seeds are quite oily. This may be less appealing to some cultures. Southern Portugal is an exception, since their cusine already tends to the oily, and they will probably be the first European adopters of wattles.

Red yams help there too; they take longer to be adopted in some cultures than wattles, but will cause an even greater increase in population once adopted.

Spain has coal in Asturias and Léon, and will no doubt see its population recover from the Aururian plagues faster because of the favourable conditions for Aururian crops. Could Spain be one of the early places industrialisation spreads to?

For similar reasons to what Cochlea pointed out, I'd say not the earliest place. Institutions need to change too, not just crops. There is potential for greater industrialisation than in OTL, but probably not extremely early industrialisation.
 
.Fair comment. I'll park most of this discussion (with a few minor exceptions I've taken up below since I think that they are of more general interest) for a PM discussion. That won't be particularly soon; I've been rather flat out with life things the last few weeks (even ITWP has seen only a couple of sporadic updates).

Excellent, I'll be waiting for your PM then. I suppose a better explanation of what you have planned with more notes or whatever else will help with me understanding the discussion more than the short-form version.

Below I'll just add whatever I can at the moment to the discussion.

I'm mostly commenting on the foreign policy aspects here (leaving the rest to any future PM discussions). Aotearoa is a potentially great source of raw materials such as New Zealand flax and other suitable production. NZ flax grows abundantly, and while it has plenty of domestic uses (their main fibre for clothing, amongst much else), there's enough for export. In the past their exports were limited by their own relatively small shipping, and their small export markets. With the broader world opened up, their production potential is huge.

It's unlikely that Aotearoa will ever be fully united - not until a nineteenth-century level of technology, at least - and so there will be plenty of scope for different powers to play for influence and raw material production. Even if the Nuttana have access to the raw material export production of, say, a third of Aotearoa, that would be an order of magnitude higher than anything they would be likely to be able to set up in Patagonia. At least for a while. So Aotearoa will continue to be one of their prime areas for seeking semi-colonial influence.

It still does seem that the Compagnie could disrupt trade in Aotearoa, given that their position seems to have been strengthened as a benefit of their dealings with the Hunter.

As you say, they will be seeking influence in Aotearoa, but it could go every which way, European competition notwithstanding. If they turn a trade post into a plantation, they also have the opportunity to process it there into a form that's more useful as an industrial input, so there's that.

A full-scale industrial revolution would naturally spread to encompass more than just one industry segment, sure. Silk mechanisation alone does not an industrial revolution make. But things have to start somewhere. In OTL, it was essentially the shift of textile production from small-scale cottage industries to a factory system. Once the idea of a factory system is there, and the associated techniques, it can spread to all sorts of other areas, but textiles appears to be one of the main ways of getting things started. (With one exception that I'll take up via PM, it's a bit distracting here).

My view is that in the right circumstances, any of several textiles would be possible to get things started. Cotton offered the highest rates of return and price elasticity of demand, and also had certain other peculiarities within England in terms of the laws for the forms in which it could be imported, which helped. But I believe that other fibres, in the right circumstances, could also lead to the virtuous circle of increasing returns which made it viable to convert to a factory system. Not as fast as cotton, but fast enough.

Wool and silk both have potential to do so. (Flax/linen, less so, but not impossible). Even in OTL, things came awfully close to having the full factory system with silk in England before cotton textiles really took off in factories. (The Derby silk mill is arguably using the factory system already).

That's the OTL definition, certainly. (Or the mainstream one, at least.)

This I find hard to agree with, at least without further justification. Cotton did a lot more than get things to the point where you have factories and larger-scale manufacture. It was the industry with the most factories, the most employment, the greatest engine of economic growth and innovation through the entire Industrial Revolution.

It was far more than just a starting point.

Likewise, the Industrial Revolution was more than just the emergence of factories.

The question I'm looking at is not whether silk could have as good a level of growth as cotton; it couldn't. I'm looking at whether, in the right circumstances, it was feasible for it to become the driving part of an indigenous industrial revolution that proceeded without external inspiration. There needs to be several factors coming together, but some of the various examples in OTL (the Derby Silk Mill, the French silk industry, etc) suggest to me that it's possible to have something like that develop to the point where it could be argued ATL (with a straight face) to be an example of an industrial revolution, or more precisely where one started.

The starting point of the OTL Industrial Revolution was the bedrock for the entirety of it. Without cotton, Britain would not have seen the radical economic growth that made everything else that we consider part of the Industrial Revolution possible, you may see it as a starting point, but it's harder to argue that it was just an early driver.

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So there's why I think an industrial revolution with silk is infeasible. I'm not saying that plausible alternatives aren't possible, but silk is not it.

Pastoralism is only really possible where there's enough water for the herds. Which leads to the problems of drought. Much of Aururia is far too dry and subject to year-long droughts which will whack the populations of both the herds and the herders. The Yalatji/Butjupa survive this via artesian water, and because they are in the generally higher rainfall areas.

Camels are an exception, but I don't know if a pastoralist society is possible based on camels alone. Cattle are generally better, since they give milk as well as meat.

Camels seem at least as good as cows to centre a pastoralist society around. They give the meat and very nutritious milk, and can serve as mounts for hunters going after game.

The places where camels survive now in Australia indicate that there's enough water to maintain sizeable herds. It's probably worth looking into how the camels get their water when not from artificial sources (I've read of camels taking water from ranches and houses).

The nomads would probably just study the migration patterns of the camel herds and work those into their own nomadic patterns.

So this would essentially mean pastoralism around the wetter fringes: as you noted, the Top End (Arnhem Land) and to a lesser degree the Kimberleys (northwestern WA).

Those seem the best places for boviculture to thrive.

Feral camels are densest there because that's where they were released first, and until relatively recent culling, that's where they were allowed to spread from.

What I was pointing that out was to say that since camels survive there, that means that the camels have developed patterns for going after water and such that nomads can use to their own advantage. It's probably worth looking into how camels move in the outback.

Camels can certainly survive in the outback. The harder question to answer is whether the droughts are bad enough to stop a pastoralist culture developing. Good years would be very good, but bad years could lead to collapses in population of both camel herds and herders.

It would be as variable at worst as parts of the Sahara, and yet people manage there, if not in numbers. Camel pastoralists could manage across a large spread of land, they just won't have much of a density in population. Droughts and such would just lead them to move farther and farther with their herds to places more well off, they would have the mobility to manage that. They'd be better off than the hunter-gatherers, in my estimation.

Though culturally speaking, I'd bet the camel nomads would be more competitive and bellicose than the cow herders in the wetter north.

In OTL, in the Gobi, even camels need to drink. Admittedly there they do it for much of the year by eating snow instead, but at least that's snow which is there predictably for years.

What I'd like to work out is whether the Gobi's rainfall (though low) is better distributed from year to year. What average rainfall charts of Australia tend not to show is how much the rainfall varies from year to year. An average rainfall of 250mm per year doesn't sound too bad until you realise that it might be 1250 mm one year, dumped in a couple of storms, and then 0mm for the next four years.

I don't know whether the Gobi is the same, or if the rainfall is more regular.

Generally speaking, rainfall patterns dictate nomadic movement patterns in deserts. So I'd like to see if you can find anything of interest, it would be what ATL nomadic patterns would be based on IMO.

I don't see Sicily having an indigenous industrial revolution, but it may be an early adopter.

Everywhere in Europe not Britain which industrialized didn't technically have an indigenous industrial revolution, but had the British one spread to it. Though of course, the OTL U.S. had the most success of the lot.

IOTL, Italy in general didn't do too well for itself, and it can be argued that this economic decline goes back to the 16th century when Italian economies couldn't compete with those to the north.

It'd be interesting ITTL if parts of Italy manage to industrialize better, whether with Aururian charcoal production or whatever. The hurdles are great, but Italy did have some innovative minds which could've have sustained some degree of innovation, and could do the same IOTL given the economic and political conditions are good.

EDIT: I was also thinking about water buffalo. In OTL current Australia, water buffalo are feral all across northern Australia. Suppose that the Nuttana happen to bring in water buffalo into their areas in Queensland, considering how well they would do in that vicinity, could they go feral and eventually form part of a pastoralist livestock package in the north alongside cattle?
 
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Lands of Red and Gold #110: Glimpses of Futures Past
Lands of Red and Gold #110: Glimpses of Futures Past

“To fear is to be human; to let fear trap you through inaction is to be a fool.”
- Myumitsi Makan, better known in English as Solidarity Jenkins

* * *

Taken from “RagNotes: Ukiri Punpa’s High Lands, Low Times” [1]

About the Author

Ukiri Punpa (1776-1825) is one of Aururia’s most well-regarded playwrights, in the Nguma tradition. She was born in Mullumba [Petrie, QLD], and lived in the Dominion for all of the play-composing era of her life. She was publicly a Tjarrling, although some sources claim that she was secretly Plirite. For all of the play-composing era of her life, she lived within the Dominion.

Punpa was reported to speak five languages: Yalatji, Kiyungu, Bungudjimay, Nuttana and French. All of her plays were composed in Yalatji. She was also a celebrated poet during her lifetime, in the Kiyungu tradition of oral poetry, although few of her poems were written down, and only three survive.

In keeping with the Nguma tradition, Punpa’s plays covered both historical and mythical themes, often blending the two within a single work, and usually incorporating comic elements. Her plays are admired for their elegant use of language, strong presentation of characters, and for codifying the diverse conventions of the Nguma tradition into a set of standard practices which have been little varied in subsequent Nguma theatre.

Punpa wrote nine surviving plays and two ballad-plays. Of these, High Lands, Low Times and Holding Out For A Warego are the most performed today...

Performance

High Lands, Low Times follows the standard conventions of Nguma theatre, because in large part it defined those practices. Major characters perform their roles unmasked, while minor characters wear stylised masks to represent any of a variety of stock characters. It incorporates a musical background with a chorus of selected instruments to be played at set moments in the play, to evoke intended emotions in the audience. As with all traditional Nguma plays, no singing is involved; only ballad-plays have the characters singing...

Historical Background

High Lands, Low Times is set during the Second Yaluma [Crusade] in 1712-1713, when the Hunter’s armies invaded and conquered the Gemlands [New England tablelands], as they were then called, and added them to the Dominion. To non-Aururian readers, the Second Yaluma is much less familiar than most of the Hunter’s other campaigns, since it involved a region which was small and barely known to the outside world. Even to Aururians, the Second Yaluma is probably the most obscure of the Hunter’s campaigns.

The Gemlands had earned that name mostly for historical reasons, as they had been a source of sapphires, rubies and diamonds for two millennia. Most of these gem mines had since been exhausted, although the Gemlands still produced a small number of sapphires. They remained a highland backwater, principally exporting tin to those parts of eastern Aururia which were still in the Bronze Age.

The Gemlands had never been fully united since the days of the Watjubagans. The eastern portions had been conquered into Daluming during the first half of the seventeenth century, but in the Orb War (1648-1654), the Gemlanders reasserted their independence. In 1712, the Gemlands, like Gaul in Caesar’s time, were divided into three parts. The Kuttan Marra confederacy ruled the south, the Bogolara ruled the west, and the Loo Gwanna ruled the north. The Loo Gwanna were openly backed by the lowland Ngutti [Yamba] kingdom, itself a Nuttana protectorate. Some sources, mostly pro-Hunter, claim that the Bogolara were backed by Yigutji, then a kingdom in the north-eastern Five Rivers. The Kuttan Marra were loosely backed by the lowland kingdom of Daluming, principally in opposition to Daluming’s own rival, the kingdom of Ngutti.

The Hunter’s declaration of the Second Yaluma in 1712 was either well-informed or fortunately timed, since it happened at a time when the three confederations had started fighting amongst themselves. His invasion was a military triumph, pitting his cavalry and excellent logistics against smaller forces which had the advantage of defence and of knowing their terrain. The battlefield tactics, planning and progress of the invasion are barely referred to in the play, except for the final battle at Kuttan [Walcha] which subdued the last confederacy.

In the play, the Battle of Kuttan is presented as an epochal battle between the Hunter’s forces and a coalition of the three confederacies and some lowland allies. In fact, two of the three confederacies had already been subdued before that battle, with only Kuttan Marra still holding out. Sources disagree on whether the lowland kingdoms had ever provided any meaningful level of troops or other support to the Gemlanders, but all agree that whatever troops had been provided had been withdrawn before the Battle of Kuttan.

Although not militarily accurate, many other aspects of the play are based on historical facts. All of the major characters of the play are historical figures. The Hunter needs no explanation. Two of his main commanders, Jowarra and Kyulibah, also appear in the play, although historically Jowarra did not take part in the Second Yaluma. Goorinka, his Gemland lover and mother of his first son, also has a central role in the play. The main antagonist of the play, Yulinga Kuttan, chief of the Kuttan Marra confederacy, is likewise a historical figure. So are the minor characters featured as leaders of the other two confederacies, and representatives of Daluming and Ngutti.

High Lands, Low Times is essentially a character struggle and contest of worldviews, principally religion. In this it depicts with reasonable although not perfect accuracy the religions which were interplaying at the time, although there are some anachronistic concepts introduced from later Tjarrlinghi and Plirism. As such, the play depicts interactions between Tjarrlings in the Hunter’s forces, Plirites from Ngutti and Loo Gwanna, and the traditional religions of both the Gemlanders and the Bungudjimay.

While the play depicts historical figures and generally accurate religious views, scholars had traditionally viewed the dialogue and character struggle as largely a product of Punpa’s imagination. More recent research has revealed that many of the quotes attributed to the Hunter match what is reported in both versions of the oral tradition, which suggests that Punpa had access to surviving oral histories of her own when she was crafting the play, and included known quotations into the dialogue...

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[1] RagNotes (or Rag Notes) are a series of study guides produced in Alleghania which summarise and give context to a variety of literature. Often criticised for permitting students to avoid reading the actual literary works in question.

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Thoughts?
 
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Interesting. Has Aururian theatrical traditions been discussed before? Not all cultures have developed what we would call "plays", and I wonder to what extent European practices are affecting Aururian ones by the late 18th century. How large and how free of European influence is the Dominion in Punpa's day, or would that be too much of a Spoiler at this point? Are Plirites persecuted in the Dominion?

Bruce
 
This has to be one of the most subtle April Fools posts I've seen yet. Some of the names look a bit off for the setting (making me think you're making a pun here) but they don't ring a bell as anything in particular.
 
This has to be one of the most subtle April Fools posts I've seen yet. Some of the names look a bit off for the setting (making me think you're making a pun here) but they don't ring a bell as anything in particular.

I didn't even consider that as a possibility, but I'd like to know what the joke is if there is indeed one.

What this means, anyway, is that the Dominion of Harmony lasts a pretty long time indeed, longer than the Hunter's rule, I'm guessing.

Does this mean that the realm doesn't fall into civil war and keeps the conquered territories within a unified state?
 
Reading this at 5 in the morning means I won't even try and see the jokes/puns, though 'RagNotes' is obviously a jab at Sparknotes - do you teach by any chance, Jared? Otherwise it's always entertaining to read excerpts like these, brings life to the ahistorical setting.
 
Interesting. Has Aururian theatrical traditions been discussed before?

Not yet; it's one of many topics which I have a few odd notes and ideas scattered about but haven't covered.

Not all cultures have developed what we would call "plays", and I wonder to what extent European practices are affecting Aururian ones by the late 18th century.

Theatre isn't universally present, but there's been quite a few independent developments of theatre, so I thought that it was likely it would crop up somewhere in the Third World, too. Theatre-ish traditions developed independently in at least Greece, India, Rome (they picked up on Greek traditions later, but had their own to start with), China, and Japan too unless that was a Chinese import (not sure), Egypt (where the acting could be fatal!) the Yoruba, and probably several other places I'm missing.

What's being depicted here is an independent Aururian development of a theatrical tradition, which was already written down in a form, but where there is some European borrowing in the format in which they write it down. The actual content of Nguma theatre is largely independent of European influence.

How large and how free of European influence is the Dominion in Punpa's day, or would that be too much of a Spoiler at this point? Are Plirites persecuted in the Dominion?

It'd be spoiling things to much to say how big the Dominion is in Punpa's day, or where its borders are, other than the obvious that the former southern Kiyungu lands are still part of the Dominion when she is born (not necessarily later).

Treatment of Plirites varies in both region and timeframe, but as a general rule they are excluded from higher roles in government and administration.

This has to be one of the most subtle April Fools posts I've seen yet.

It's not a coincidence that it was posted on 1 April. :D

Some of the names look a bit off for the setting (making me think you're making a pun here) but they don't ring a bell as anything in particular.

Except for Holding Out For A Warego - which I'll leave as an exercise for the reader - the names aren't really meant to be puns. Most of them have in fact been used before. Only 3 of them are entirely new, Yulinga (the highland enemy chief), Goorinka, the lover, and Nguma, the theatre tradition. All of those are names which in their general sounds could have been produced in an *Aboriginal language, although they are not based on any specific OTL languages. Nguma is a non-Gunnagalic word (borrowed into the Kiyungu language, which is about 10% non-Gunnagalic anyway), but still one which fits within the alt-linguistic rules.

I didn't even consider that as a possibility, but I'd like to know what the joke is if there is indeed one.

It's a bit meta, but it can probably be figured out.

What this means, anyway, is that the Dominion of Harmony lasts a pretty long time indeed, longer than the Hunter's rule, I'm guessing.

Does this mean that the realm doesn't fall into civil war and keeps the conquered territories within a unified state?

It means that at least part of the Dominion survives for a while, yes. It doesn't mean that there hasn't been civil wars or disputes along the way, just that there's still a meaningful region called the Dominion circa 1800.

Reading this at 5 in the morning means I won't even try and see the jokes/puns, though 'RagNotes' is obviously a jab at Sparknotes - do you teach by any chance, Jared?

I was mostly have a jab at Cliffs Notes, but the principle's the same. I don't teach, but I've known enough teachers to get an idea of how such guides are regarded.

Otherwise it's always entertaining to read excerpts like these, brings life to the ahistorical setting.

I did think it would be an entertaining - and possibly even accurate - glimpse of another part of Aururia.
 
So is it an April fools? Or are we the April fools for being fooled into thinking it was an April fools?

Yes .

After a couple of years of genuine April Fools posts, I figured people would be on the lookout for another. So I just wrote a genuine but slightly odd post and watched what happened.
 
Jared, one thing I was wondering concerning Plirism, is that why is there so little diversity in schools of thought for a religion that has existed for so long? Even given the Tjarrling - Orthodox split, there being a cohesive "orthodoxy" within non-Tjarrlinghi Plirism seems a bit strange. Religions which have existed for as long with as many adherents started splitting almost immediately, I would imagine that the same would be inevitable within Nangu / Nuttana Plirism, and also within other strains such as Aotearoan Plirism.
 
I managed to miss this post last time around, being caught up in preparing the next chapter. I've responded here, except to the points which have already been taken up by PM.

It still does seem that the Compagnie could disrupt trade in Aotearoa, given that their position seems to have been strengthened as a benefit of their dealings with the Hunter.

As you say, they will be seeking influence in Aotearoa, but it could go every which way, European competition notwithstanding. If they turn a trade post into a plantation, they also have the opportunity to process it there into a form that's more useful as an industrial input, so there's that.

The Compagnie has some further influence with the Hunter, and also isin the fortunate position of having influence over that part of Aotearoa which contains the best gold reserves. The Nuttana do have some advantages of their own, though, most notably that they're a hell of a lot closer in terms of projecting influence. The French are operating on the end of a very long supply line, whereas the Nuttana are in comparison just across the Tasman. The Nuttana also have copious amounts of a very desirable trade good (sugar), which helps with influence too.

In terms of turning things into plantations, that depends on how you mean the term. Direct conquest and forcing the Māori into plantations would be difficult, I think. Too far away, too hostile and well-armed a population. Persuading the Māori rulers and aristocrats to turn their own land into plantations oriented to export of desirable crops (principally NZ flax) may be a much easier deal.

Camels seem at least as good as cows to centre a pastoralist society around. They give the meat and very nutritious milk, and can serve as mounts for hunters going after game.

The places where camels survive now in Australia indicate that there's enough water to maintain sizeable herds. It's probably worth looking into how the camels get their water when not from artificial sources (I've read of camels taking water from ranches and houses).

Camels survive in plenty of Australia, but a lot of their water is gained from artificial watering points, mostly those established for cattle. This particularly happens during droughts, of course. Without those, camels would still survive, but the population densities would be much lower. This makes it hard to judge exactly where a pastoralist society would thrive, but it's safe to say that any such society would have to be fairly wide-ranging and thinly-populated across most of the present range of feral camels in Oz.

The nomads would probably just study the migration patterns of the camel herds and work those into their own nomadic patterns.

If the nomads know the available water sources - and they generally would, that being the advantage of accumulated local knowlege - they could probably set up their own patterns of moving between water sources and pasture (well, browsing really). Anything which they can observe of camel migrations would of course be a bonus.

What I was pointing that out was to say that since camels survive there, that means that the camels have developed patterns for going after water and such that nomads can use to their own advantage. It's probably worth looking into how camels move in the outback.

It doesn't look like anyone really knows. The sources I looked into - mostly those related to the planned culling of feral camels last decade - concluded that camels move over areas of thousands to tens of thousands of square kilometres. They note a strong correlation between long-term annual rainfall and the size of areas used by feral camels, but said that it was uncertain whether camel movement patterns were nomadic, migratory, or movement with a home range.

It would be as variable at worst as parts of the Sahara, and yet people manage there, if not in numbers. Camel pastoralists could manage across a large spread of land, they just won't have much of a density in population. Droughts and such would just lead them to move farther and farther with their herds to places more well off, they would have the mobility to manage that. They'd be better off than the hunter-gatherers, in my estimation.

What the hunter-gatherers have the advantage in is extremely detailed knowledge of available food and water sources within their territory. The counterpoint is that the camel herders could move further, but may not be as familiar with each of the regions. I'm not sure how that one would play out.

It'd be interesting ITTL if parts of Italy manage to industrialize better, whether with Aururian charcoal production or whatever. The hurdles are great, but Italy did have some innovative minds which could've have sustained some degree of innovation, and could do the same IOTL given the economic and political conditions are good.

Charcoal could make up for some of the lack of coal, at least. Not entirely, but it may be enough to work with until imported coal becomes available. There is certainly some potential there, although so much depends on the broader economic conditions in Italy and Europe, which is getting ahead of the story.

EDIT: I was also thinking about water buffalo. In OTL current Australia, water buffalo are feral all across northern Australia. Suppose that the Nuttana happen to bring in water buffalo into their areas in Queensland, considering how well they would do in that vicinity, could they go feral and eventually form part of a pastoralist livestock package in the north alongside cattle?

There's no reason why not. Water buffalo seem to be more restricted than cattle since they have even higher water requirements, but there are certainly suitable areas across parts of northern Australia.

Jared, one thing I was wondering concerning Plirism, is that why is there so little diversity in schools of thought for a religion that has existed for so long? Even given the Tjarrling - Orthodox split, there being a cohesive "orthodoxy" within non-Tjarrlinghi Plirism seems a bit strange. Religions which have existed for as long with as many adherents started splitting almost immediately, I would imagine that the same would be inevitable within Nangu / Nuttana Plirism, and also within other strains such as Aotearoan Plirism.

There are several schools of thought in "orthodox" Plirism, and even Tjarrlinghi is not uniform either. These have been touched on, but most of them have not been explored in much detail. For instance, the idea of a "balanced diet" is largely a feature of the Nangu/Nuttana school of Plirism, is a lesser presence in some Five Rivers schools, and is not found at all in the Yadilli school or the Tjarrlinghi branches.

Many of those early schools have gone extinct, either through conversion to other branches, conquest by more resistant peoples, or in one case the disappearance of an entire kingdom. The Yadji expansion extinguished one northern school (from their point of view), but was not successful in extinguishing another school within their borders. The extinction of the kingdom of Lopitja took several interpretations with it, and the only ones which survived were those which had already made missionary efforts.

The main surviving schools are the Five Rivers schools (several branches), the Yadilli school (south-western Durigal), the Tjarrlinghi schools (three main branches in pre-Hunter days), and the Nangu/Nuttana school.

There are two reasons why most of the Plirism encountered in the timeline seems more similar. The first is that Plirism is non-hierarchical (in some ways like Sunni Islam) where people choose which priest's counsel they follow, and so considerable diversity of opinion can be accommodated on many points without needing to create a whole new sect. Aotearoan Plirism has been quite syncrectic during the early days, and so is Congxie Plirism (although that's only been touched on in the "future glimpses" interlude posts).

The second and larger reason is that most of the Plirism encountered so far in the timeline has been the Nangu/Nuttana school of Plirism. This has spread more recently, after the time a more codified set of beliefs and written texts emerged. So there is more similarity in those Plirites because the presence of a standard canon creates more common beliefs, and also because the more recent spread of the religion by Nangu missionary efforts means that there has not been as much time to diverge.
 
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