Kerbogha relieves/retakes Antioch from the First Crusade. What next?

[Vinization]

For those who don't know, Kerbogha was the Turkish atabeg (leader) of Mosul who led an army to relieve the city of Antioch, which was besieged by the First Crusade, and, after it fell before his arrival, to retake it from them.

Wikipedia provides two possible PODs which could've resulted in the defeat of the crusaders.

First, Kerbogha wasted three weeks besieging Edessa, which had been conquered by Baldwin of Boulogne, weeks during which he could've relieved Antioch. Second, after the city in question was now under siege from Kerbogha's forces, a soldier claimed he had seen the Holy Lance in a vision, something that reenergized the demoralized defenders and allowed them to defeat the Turkish army.

Say one of these two events is altered in Kerbogha's favor and Antioch falls under his control. What would his next priority be? Would he try to consolidate his expanded dominion, and if so, would he manage to succeed in this endeavor? What place could be his next target, assuming he's not overthrown or murdered? Fatimid Egypt, which at this point controlled Jerusalem, somewhere else in Syria, or maybe even Baghdad?​

 

[Vinization]

Would Alexios Komnenos be a major threat? I assume he'd want Antioch to strengthen his position in Cilicia and ensure the Sultanate of Rum is confined to Anatolia.

 

[Silver01]

Would Alexios Komnenos be a major threat? I assume he'd want Antioch to strengthen his position in Cilicia and ensure the Sultanate of Rum is confined to Anatolia.

well alexios did refuse to march to the city after the deserted told him it was all lost after they won and despite one of the crusader leaders invitation he refused to go.
but maybe here seen as the crusade screwd up he migth .

 

[Practical Lobster]

well alexios did refuse to march to the city after the deserted told him it was all lost after they won and despite one of the crusader leaders invitation he refused to go.
but maybe here seen as the crusade screwd up he migth .

I think if anything, the Crusaders actually being annihilated makes it less likely that the Byzantines would interve.

Would Alexios Komnenos be a major threat?

Down the line, perhaps, but probably the Byzantine position would be essentially the same. The Byzantines have much more immediate problems in Anatolia in the short term aftermath.


One interesting plot point is that the single, failed crusade would probably be seen as something akin to the norman invasion of Southern Italy or Greece rather than the "crusades" per OTL.

I don't think Kerbogha would move on to Baghdad, but it's really tough to say what his career would be - basically the sky is the limit for him at his point, and he's in command of an expanded Syrian territory with few real peers or rivals immediately on site. It would be a very cool pod to explore further. And of course, Kerbogha raises Zengi (and has already adopted him by the pod), so that will be two strong, militarily talented leaders in a row.

 

[Vinization]

I think if anything, the Crusaders actually being annihilated makes it less likely that the Byzantines would interve.



Down the line, perhaps, but probably the Byzantine position would be essentially the same. The Byzantines have much more immediate problems in Anatolia in the short term aftermath.


One interesting plot point is that the single, failed crusade would probably be seen as something akin to the norman invasion of Southern Italy or Greece rather than the "crusades" per OTL.

I don't think Kerbogha would move on to Baghdad, but it's really tough to say what his career would be - basically the sky is the limit for him at his point, and he's in command of an expanded Syrian territory with few real peers or rivals immediately on site. It would be a very cool pod to explore further. And of course, Kerbogha raises Zengi (and has already adopted him by the pod), so that will be two strong, militarily talented leaders in a row.

Wow, I didn't know Kerbogha adopted Zengi. Assuming the latter succeeds the former without much trouble, this hypothetical state could have a very bright future indeed. As for potential enemies, what about Radwan and Duqaq (the brothers who controlled Aleppo and Damascus, respectively) and the rest of the Seljuk Empire? Plus, IIRC Kerbogha's army was a coalition of warlords that could fall apart if he became too powerful.

EDIT: Also, I wonder if a failed crusade means the Reconquista could happen earlier, since at least some of the knights who went to the Outremer IOTL could go to Iberia instead, in search of land and glory.

 

[Vinization]

Calling in some people who may contribute to this discussion: @John7755 يوحنا @Planet of Hats @Osman Aga @Abd ar-Rahman II

 

[Osman Aga]

For those who don't know, Kerbogha was the Turkish atabeg (leader) of Mosul who led an army to relieve the city of Antioch, which was besieged by the First Crusade, and, after it fell before his arrival, to retake it from them.

Wikipedia provides two possible PODs which could've resulted in the defeat of the crusaders.

First, Kerbogha wasted three weeks besieging Edessa, which had been conquered by Baldwin of Boulogne, weeks during which he could've relieved Antioch. Second, after the city in question was now under siege from Kerbogha's forces, a soldier claimed he had seen the Holy Lance in a vision, something that reenergized the demoralized defenders and allowed them to defeat the Turkish army.

Say one of these two events is altered in Kerbogha's favor and Antioch falls under his control. What would his next priority be? Would he try to consolidate his expanded dominion, and if so, would he manage to succeed in this endeavor? What place could be his next target, assuming he's not overthrown or murdered? Fatimid Egypt, which at this point controlled Jerusalem, somewhere else in Syria, or maybe even Baghdad?​

Probably Edessa as it seems like thr easiest target. If that is dealt with he moves South against the Fatimids.