Italy, a Destiny Fulfilled

I would like to see most of the Brains go to the US. Carnegie and Rockefeller hadn't imposed the rigid Semester system, yet. And a influx of European Professors may prevent it.
However I think Switzerland and Belgium more likely. Thou some of the more Liberal may end up at the new -- Royal Italian Academy of Arts & Science --

As for Disraeli

This is the Period when Britain was building all those fancy forts along the coast in case France invaded. Does Britain see Italy as a Friend or potential Foe.
A Lot will depend on how the Press has been portraying the Italian War.
Was It? Woe and begone to Our Friends in France:(, or was it, Plucky Newly United Italy standing up for itself:D.

The other consideration will be Italian moves in NAfrica.
?Have the Italian Fruit Growers been expanding into Tunisia? The new Refrigerator Technology allows Citrus from Tunisia to be shipped & sold to the emerging middle class in Italy.
?What will Happen with Italy & Algeria? If Italy gets Algeria, Italy may not be interested in the Red Sea [yet]. Or may content Itself with Taking French Somalia,[Djibouti] just for the toehold.
 
Such exiting stuff starting to happen:D!

DuQuense, I'm very sure that the British press has been portraying Italy in a good light. If you remember, di Castagna had convinced the old PM that France MAY be a threat. Also, Britain, knowing that the new big players on the European block are Prussia and Italy, wnats to be on their side, not the side of weak, crippled France. Also, i'd like to see the great minds follow suit and go to Prussia and Italy as well!
 
Such exiting stuff starting to happen:D!

DuQuense, I'm very sure that the British press has been portraying Italy in a good light. If you remember, di Castagna had convinced the old PM that France MAY be a threat. Also, Britain, knowing that the new big players on the European block are Prussia and Italy, wnats to be on their side, not the side of weak, crippled France. Also, i'd like to see the great minds follow suit and go to Prussia and Italy as well!

Yes, agreed!

Yes, Italy is in a good light in British news. The British are playing to the tune of the victors.

I apologize, I have plans for Tunisia but after all the additions I got mixed up. Due to mass overpopulation in the south, yes, many of the new richer middle class have moved to Tunisia (meaning a large Italian Tunisian population, much larger than OTL). Italian fruit growing companies have moved to Tunisia as well.

So, with all the additions and having the war all these years earlier and with the death of Gambetta... Is the war ending. Is the treaty going to be written at Alsace or Frankfurt like OTL? I'm beginning to write the treaty and just want to know if the war really IS finished. :eek:
 

Eurofed

Banned
Well, why not? and also a "tour Eiffel" (with another name: what about Krupp Turm?) in Berlin for the 1886 expo to celebrate the centennial of the death of Frederikthe Great? :p

Seems quite feasible. :cool:

IMHO there would be the same happening in both Italy and Germany: the two countries have got too close to fail to influence each other in cultural and social trends. I would also agree about the marginalization of the marxist ideology: the national pride in both countries will not mix wel with the concept of internationalism. This may have far-reaching consequences, given that France will "enjoy" a far-right and very repressive restoration. Will marxism become a purely British phenomenon? or even will Marx and Engels becoe a mere footnote in philosophy books?

Well, the influence of Marxism on the British left was never really that big to begin with, certainly nowhere as pivotal as Fabianism or in continental Europe. What it got mostly happened as a reflex of its dominant status in the continental European left. With France going the far right way, and Italy-Germany seing that slot of the political system mostly filled by progressive christian democracy, I can easily see Marxism being marginalized and failing to get anything like OTL influence.

Another though is that Germany and Italy might start early on the road to corporativism (which might not be a bad thing in itself: it just depends on how the game is played). ITTL there would not be a Catholic church preaching aginst modernism, and intimating the faithfuls to stay out of it.

A reasonable assumption.

OTOH, there would still be a very entrenched and myopic aristocracy in both countries who would fight a rearguard battle to conserve their privileges. And again an economic boom would bring also inflation: the worst-hit in an inflationary process are the landholders. In a better world (and TTL is a better world:p) the break-up of the big estates will happen 30 or 40 years earlier. 15 yers after the POD the butterflies can be huge.

All true, and I can see the landholder aristocracy pretty soon getting more and more economically marginalized by industrial development, and getting its attention and energies mostly focused on fighting a rearguard action to milk economic support from the state. While they are going to be partially successful on this parasitic reargaurd defense for a while, they shall be forced to bargain more and more compromises and share power with the financial and industrial elites, the urban middle classes, and the mass parties. In a few decades, they shall be but one component among the elites, and not the whole show, nor the most influential.

You're obviously correct about the Commune happening after the end of the war. Maybe ITTL Thiers will be less slow in crushing the Commune; or (and it is equally possible) the Communards will realise that failing to nationalise the assets of the Banque Nationale might not be the smartest move in the world.

Both things are quite possible, but in the end, they are not going to make that much of a difference. Even if the Commune is crushed a bit earlier, the reactionaries are still going to ride the political shock in a takeover, now that they have the Ultra-Catholics getting them organized. And even if the Commune grabs the BN assets and hence has the money to arm and supply itself better, they are not going anywhere. They are 2-3 urban worker nests in a still mostly rural country that loathes them, largely occupied by victorious invaders that shall never allow a nest of far left revolution to spawn on their borders. If need truly be, Bismarck and di Castagna would manage the repression themselves, with the cheering approval of the other Great Powers.

I'm anticipating that the repression will be harsher than IOTL:there will be a religious undertone to the fight against the Commune, with the pope fulminating from Avignon (and maybe the Punch will lampoon Pius IX: the pope blessing a company of Zouaves in front of a mound of civilian corpses?)

This is indeed a most likely scenario, due to the polarization that Papal presence in France is causing.

Two different topics now:
- the repression of the Commune and the clerical-monarchist ancien regime that will be established soon after will induce a diaspora of the best intelectual brains of France. Where do you think they will go? My guess would be Geneve and Bruxelles.

Well, I would expect the diaspora to be spread around: some would indeed go to Switzerland and Belgium (the ones that are less willing to travel far or crave a French-speaking environment), others would go to Britain or the United States (both liberal powers and traditional havens of European dissidents), yet others would go to Germany and Italy (as they evolve more and more towards British-like liberalism and become economic and cultural powerhouses).

- this is a bitmore serious and far reaching. The British PM is still Disraeli, whose paranoia about controlling the route to India is well known. I think that when the news percolate about the French shares in the canal being handed over to Italy and Germany he will go bonkers. What do you think will happen? Would it make sense to sell Britain a portion of the shares and make them partners in the new Compagnie de Suez? For a substantial price, obviously: Britain will buy the khedive's shares when he goes broken (1876 IIRC) but this time they are not dealing with a defaulting khedive of Egypt. It might not work, mind: Disraeli managed to freeze the works on the canal from 1854 to 1866, after all. The alternative might be not to give a damn. What can Britain do at this stage? The canalis supposed to be inaugurated in November 1869. Maybe the early war delays the inauguration (say 6 months, to May 1870?) but it cannot be more than that. And by this time the Italian government will have been already sniffing in Erythrea: IOTL they sent Rubattino Shipping Company as their cat's paw to buy Assab in 1870; I guess that TTL they might even anticipate this move (and IOTL Disraeli was royally pissed off by Italian moves, and tried to involve the khedive who had some kind of claim on the region). Anything might happen, including Disraeli loosing next election to Gladstone who had a completely different attitude.

IMO the most likely scenario is indeed that the British government shall make its wish known to Italy and Germany about having a portions of the shares. However, given that the three powers have had friendly relations so far, and having exclusive control of the canal is no priority of the I-G bloc, I expect the transaction to be managed in an amicable way. Italy and Germany sell back a portion of their own shares to Britain, and the three powers make a gentleman's agreement to keep their quotes in the SCC equal. So when Egypt is forced to sell its shares, the three powers buy them and divide them in equal portions. In exchange for this compromise, and Italo-German support for British policy about Turkey, Britain shall be amicable to Italian expansion in Eritrea.
 

Eurofed

Banned
DuQuesne and Supermanboy,

Britain is indeed going to see the rise of the Italo-German bloc with tentative sympathy (which shall blossom into true friendship later when the I-G support Britain in the Balkan crisis). The British were neutral or sympathetic to German and Italian unifications, the F-P-I war mostly looked to them as France relapsing into Napoleonic aggressive expansionism and biting more than it could chew, and the support that France got from a theocratic crusading Pope is going to win even less sympathy from the British press. Britain shall make cautious openings to the new big boys on the continent, to see if it can make business with them. When Britain sees it can be done (because it gets support to keep the Russian bear muzzled), it shall warm up to partnership. Italy and Germany are indeed going to pick some of those minds, even if Britain and America shall get another share.

So, with all the additions and having the war all these years earlier and with the death of Gambetta... Is the war ending. Is the treaty going to be written at Alsace or Frankfurt like OTL? I'm beginning to write the treaty and just want to know if the war really IS finished. :eek:

The war is indeed ending. France has no regular army left in the field, the delusional attempt to repeat 1793 with poorly-trained mass-levies and militias has bungled miserably, and its military position is utterly hopeless. However, there is still going to be a substantial tailend between armistice and peace treaty with the French Commune. France agreed to an armistice, but won't be able and sign the peace treaty while it's wracked by far left insurrection. You need to cover it before you can have the peace treaty. While peace negotations are ongoing, a few weeks after the armistice, the simmering antagonism between the conservative provisional Government of National Defense and the far left radicals in Paris (heightened by the election of a royalist majority in the French National Assembly) shall explode into open fighting, the insurrection seizes control of the capital and other cities with a strong urban worker population (Lyon and Marseilles), the provisional government flees to a safe haven (IOTL Versailles, but with the Commune spreading to other major cities, it may be Orleans or Bordeaux), assembles forces from the conservative rural and provincial districts of France which remain alienated to the uprising (even more so ITTL with the Catholics spurred to support the government by the Pope), as well as gets Italy and Germany to release French PoWs before the peace treaty to fight the Commune. With those forces, the government shall besiege, then crush the Commune in a very bloodthirsty repression. IOTL, the Commune lasted a couple months. ITTL, give a couple extra months (it spreads to more cities, the Communards seize the reserves of the National Banks to fund themselves) or take a month (the government moves to crush the rebellion more decisively with Catholic support). After the Commune is quelled, France shall be reluctantly ready for the peace treaty.
 
Last edited:
Seems quite feasible. :cool:
Actually the name should better be Friedrich Turm


Well, the influence of Marxism on the British left was never really that big to begin with, certainly nowhere as pivotal as Fabianism or in continental Europe. What it got mostly happened as a reflex of its dominant status in the continental European left. With France going the far right way, and Italy-Germany seing that slot of the political system mostly filled by progressive christian democracy, I can easily see Marxism being marginalized and failing to get anything like OTL influence.
You mean that after having effectively destroyed a papacy that had lasted 18centuries we are also going to completely marginalise marxism? :cool::cool:


All true, and I can see the landholder aristocracy pretty soon getting more and more economically marginalized by industrial development, and getting its attention and energies mostly focused on fighting a rearguard action to milk economic support from the state. While they are going to be partially successful on this parasitic reargaurd defense for a while, they shall be forced to bargain more and more compromises and share power with the financial and industrial elites, the urban middle classes, and the mass parties. In a few decades, they shall be but one component among the elites, and not the whole show, nor the most influential.
There will be electoral reforms also, lowering the threshold to vote and redesigning he electoral precincts. The weakening of the aristocracy would have a positive effect on the minds of the royal families too.


Both things are quite possible, but in the end, they are not going to make that much of a difference. Even if the Commune is crushed a bit earlier, the reactionaries are still going to ride the political shock in a takeover, now that they have the Ultra-Catholics getting them organized. And even if the Commune grabs the BN assets and hence has the money to arm and supply itself better, they are not going anywhere. They are 2-3 urban worker nests in a still mostly rural country that loathes them, largely occupied by victorious invaders that shall never allow a nest of far left revolution to spawn on their borders. If need truly be, Bismarck and di Castagna would manage the repression themselves, with the cheering approval of the other Great Powers.
Quite true In such a case, my greed would push me to prod iers to move, in order not to squander the reserves of the Banque Nationale which are needed to pay the bill :p not to mention that the Communecannot win, n need therefore to lengthen its agony




Well, I would expect the diaspora to be spread around: some would indeed go to Switzerland and Belgium (the ones that are less willing to travel far or crave a French-speaking environment), others would go to Britain or the United States (both liberal powers and traditional havens of European dissidents), yet others would go to Germany and Italy (as they evolve more and more towards British-like liberalism and become economic and cultural powerhouses).
Germany and Italy maybe in 10-15 years In 1870 the wounds are still too fresh. Britain and USA would betworeasonable choices. Maybe south America too (Argentina?)


IMO the most likely scenario is indeed that the British government shall make its wish known to Italy and Germany about having a portions of the shares. However, given that the three powers have had friendly relations so far, and having exclusive control of the canal is no priority of the I-G bloc, I expect the transaction to be managed in an amicable way. Italy and Germany sell back a portion of their own shares to Britain, and the three powers make a gentleman's agreement to keep their quotes in the SCC equal. So when Egypt is forced to sell its shares, the three powers buy them and divide them in equal portions. In exchange for this compromise, and Italo-German support for British policy about Turkey, Britain shall be amicable to Italian expansion in Eritrea.
What you describe was also my first thought, and it's what reasonable countries would do. The only problem was that Disraeli was not completely rational whenever te subject of Egypt came up.
There's a book I want to check before making a final decision.
 

Eurofed

Banned
Actually the name should better be Friedrich Turm

I rely on your linguistic expertise on this. ;)

You mean that after having effectively destroyed a papacy that had lasted 18centuries we are also going to completely marginalise marxism? :cool::cool:

Practically yes. :D When your provide an alternative, more acceptable means of socio-political organization and advocacy for the lower and lower middle classes (which bypasses the need for the gradual evolution of its doctrine from revolutionary extremism to reformist social democracy), you have stolen the thunder of marxism. IOTL, it happened to a very large extente in the Anglosphere, ITTL it extends to cover most of continental western Europe as well. At this point, anarchism, un-Marxist socialism, and radical fringes of progressive christian democracy can cover the need for political representation of the far left fringes.

If you prefer, I can give you an alternative scenario which leaves Marxism some meaningful role in the european politcal landscape. You may make it survive as part of the underground dissidence to the Carlist regime in France-Spain, and/or the Tsarist regime in Russia, and the circumstances of those regimes' military defeat and downfall cause it to emerge as one of the mainstream political forces (but not so much that they attempt an immediate revolutionary takeover, which would be ruthlessly repressed, and cast the commies back to square one). This would ensure them a relevant degree of following and influence in the Gallo-Ispanic-Russian area. It's the same basic process that made the Communists get a large following in OTL post-WWII France & Italy.

However, marxist movements would still reap very little following and influence in Germany, Italy, and the countries in their sphere of influence (Low Countries, Scandinavia, Hungary). Those countries are sent by the TTL on a different political trajectory, more akin to OTL Anglosphere.

Of course, it is also quite possible that post-Great War political systems in the defeated great powers mold themselves on the victors, or their far left movements get dominated by non-Marxist traditions instead. There's plenty of room for butterflies fluttering in either sense here. :D

There will be electoral reforms also, lowering the threshold to vote and redesigning he electoral precincts. The weakening of the aristocracy would have a positive effect on the minds of the royal families too.

Both points quite true, and rather beneficial on the long-term health of the countries, too. :cool:

Quite true In such a case, my greed would push me to prod iers to move, in order not to squander the reserves of the Banque Nationale which are needed to pay the bill :p

So very true. That money can put to much better use than fueling the hopeless efforts of a bunch of doomed extremists. ;)

not to mention that the Commune cannot win, n need therefore to lengthen its agony

Yes. And by the way, the same constraints are going to show themselves again after the Great War. Short of being horribly exhausted, Berlin and Rome (or London for that matter) are not going to let a Communist regime take over on their borders after they defeat the Holy Alliance and have occupation troops in the field. While a Red Russia indeed may have a window due to its sheer size and peripheral location to the core of Europe (but it would require the victors to be as exhausted as OTL Entente), a Red France has close to none.

Germany and Italy maybe in 10-15 years In 1870 the wounds are still too fresh. Britain and USA would betworeasonable choices. Maybe south America too (Argentina?)

Good point about the short term. I was indeed taking the long view and considering the whole span of the ca. 1870-1895 Victorian "Cold War".

What you describe was also my first thought, and it's what reasonable countries would do. The only problem was that Disraeli was not completely rational whenever te subject of Egypt came up.

As you wish. However, I'd like to point out that Disraeli was not a dictator, and the rest of the British ruling elite may easily act to rein him in if he's obviously and irrationally overreacting on the Suez issue when Berlin and Rome are apparently wholly liable to a sensible sharing compromise. After all, until France lost the war, Disraeli apparently had no such big objection to France keeping all those shares, and in 1870, arguing that Germany and Italy (even TTL optimal cases) are going to be a bigger potential threat to the British interests in the Middle East than France (or Russia for that matter) is not going to sound very believable in the House of Commons or in the British press.
 
by the way... heres just a thought, i'd like to get an opinion and see if this goes over well with everyone. I'm thinking colonial times stays... colonial:p

As in, maybe with all these wars and a different Europe, technology stays more or less the same and colonies don't gain nationalism. This way we can have a longer colonial period TL and the world can really change by the time we get into more modern technologies that limit the growth of countries and the permanencies of borders. What do we all think? Can this happen?

Note: Supermanboy is with me in this idea (PMing)
 
Not really into this idea at all. I mean, certainly technology can take different paths and advancements can happen differently but it's not going to essentially freeze at this point. Not without a lot more destruction of tech-improving infrastructure and it's already too late to stop nationalism.
 
by the way... heres just a thought, i'd like to get an opinion and see if this goes over well with everyone. I'm thinking colonial times stays... colonial:p

As in, maybe with all these wars and a different Europe, technology stays more or less the same and colonies don't gain nationalism. This way we can have a longer colonial period TL and the world can really change by the time we get into more modern technologies that limit the growth of countries and the permanencies of borders. What do we all think? Can this happen?

Note: Supermanboy is with me in this idea (PMing)

Quite possible. I would say even likely. IOTL the colonial empires started to crumble (and local nationalism raised its head) after the carnage of WW1, thanks also to the weakness of all participants. ITTL the WW1-equivalent will be much ess bloody and much shorter. No need to involve colonial troops in it (which was another cause for the surge of nationalism). My take is that a decolonization might happen TTL too, but it wll be a much slower process and hopefully will be managed with more skill.
 
I rely on your linguistic expertise on this. ;)
actually you rely on he expertise of Google translator :p



Practically yes. :D When your provide an alternative, more acceptable means of socio-political organization and advocacy for the lower and lower middle classes (which bypasses the need for the gradual evolution of its doctrine from revolutionary extremism to reformist social democracy), you have stolen the thunder of marxism. IOTL, it happened to a very large extente in the Anglosphere, ITTL it extends to cover most of continental western Europe as well. At this point, anarchism, un-Marxist socialism, and radical fringes of progressive christian democracy can cover the need for political representation of the far left fringes.

If you prefer, I can give you an alternative scenario which leaves Marxism some meaningful role in the european politcal landscape. You may make it survive as part of the underground dissidence to the Carlist regime in France-Spain, and/or the Tsarist regime in Russia, and the circumstances of those regimes' military defeat and downfall cause it to emerge as one of the mainstream political forces (but not so much that they attempt an immediate revolutionary takeover, which would be ruthlessly repressed, and cast the commies back to square one). This would ensure them a relevant degree of following and influence in the Gallo-Ispanic-Russian area. It's the same basic process that made the Communists get a large following in OTL post-WWII France & Italy.

However, marxist movements would still reap very little following and influence in Germany, Italy, and the countries in their sphere of influence (Low Countries, Scandinavia, Hungary). Those countries are sent by the TTL on a different political trajectory, more akin to OTL Anglosphere.

Of course, it is also quite possible that post-Great War political systems in the defeated great powers mold themselves on the victors, or their far left movements get dominated by non-Marxist traditions instead. There's plenty of room for butterflies fluttering in either sense here. :D
It was kinda a rhetoric question, but I'm happy I pushed your button: I do obviously agree to all your points.


Both points quite true, and rather beneficial on the long-term health of the countries, too. :cool:
IMHO, nothing is more harmful to a country than a fossilised, no-good, land-holding aristocracy. Thanks God for cavalry harges, that do wonders to cull this breed :p



Yes. And by the way, the same constraints are going to show themselves again after the Great War. Short of being horribly exhausted, Berlin and Rome (or London for that matter) are not going to let a Communist regime take over on their borders after they defeat the Holy Alliance and have occupation troops in the field. While a Red Russia indeed may have a window due to its sheer size and peripheral location to the core of Europe (but it would require the victors to be as exhausted as OTL Entente), a Red France has close to none.
All good points. No way a red France can be acceptable.



As you wish. However, I'd like to point out that Disraeli was not a dictator, and the rest of the British ruling elite may easily act to rein him in if he's obviously and irrationally overreacting on the Suez issue when Berlin and Rome are apparently wholly liable to a sensible sharing compromise. After all, until France lost the war, Disraeli apparently had no such big objection to France keeping all those shares, and in 1870, arguing that Germany and Italy (even TTL optimal cases) are going to be a bigger potential threat to the British interests in the Middle East than France (or Russia for that matter) is not going to sound very believable in the House of Commons or in the British press.

I'm still dithering. Maybe the Suez crisis could lead to an early change of ministry.
 

Eurofed

Banned
I'm still dithering. Maybe the Suez crisis could lead to an early change of ministry.

If you wish. But again, if Disraeli creates a diplomatic crisis about the cession of the French shares, he would be blatantly acting irrationally, picking an unnecessary clash with two friendly powers that are willing to compromise on the matter, and indeed setting himself up for a fall. In my knowledge, he made no such objection at their previous ownership, and he has no justification to see Italo-German ownership of Suez as more threatening to British interests in the area than French ownership (quite the contrary, in this day and age London saw Russia and to a lesser degree France as its main imperial rivals). Influential MPs are sure to make sharp remarks about that in the House of Commons.
 
Not really into this idea at all. I mean, certainly technology can take different paths and advancements can happen differently but it's not going to essentially freeze at this point. Not without a lot more destruction of tech-improving infrastructure and it's already too late to stop nationalism.

Well maybe I meant that wrong. Technology can advance at an OTL pace, but colonies stay more loyal? LordKalvans answer is really what I was saying. WW1 will be much later and probably not happen at all (Maybe), that can give Italy time to make a greater colonial presence.
 

Eurofed

Banned
Well maybe I meant that wrong. Technology can advance at an OTL pace, but colonies stay more loyal? LordKalvans answer is really what I was saying. WW1 will be much later and probably not happen at all (Maybe), that can give Italy time to make a greater colonial presence.

Well, the idea of a technological slowdown is really ASB, except insofar as we may not have a WWII in TTL, and lack the boost to scientific and technolgical research that it induced (although this is not sure as well, we have to balance the effect of no war-spurred research boost against the huge destruction that it wrought on Europe), but Lord Kalvan is absolutely correct. However, I think you are interpreting his point wrong about WWI.

The author is king, but please be mindful that ITTL WWI is most likely to occur somewhat earlier, although it shall indeed be rather shorter, less bloody, and less expensive. On top of the usual imperialistic rivalries between the Anglo-Italo-German bloc and the Franco-Russo-Spanish bloc, you shall have a sharp ideological Cold War-like clash (with religious overtones) between the former, liberal alliance, and the latter, reactionary one. In the lack of MAD stabilizing the blocs, these tensions are fated to explode into a general war, and since they shall be worse than IOTL, most likely earlier than 1914. Political and diplomatic butterflies are of course at work here, so the precise year and the trigger point may vary, but the most likely schedule is sometime in the 1890s, give or take half a decade.

Earlier than the late 1880s or early 1890s, Germany and Italy still have to do some serious nation-building, France has to recover from the last war, do some nation-building of its own in Spain, Russia some basic modernization, and colonial race is a source of possible trigger points, but also a peaceful vent for imperial ambitions. Later than late 1890s and early 1900s, well the Carlist regime in France-Spain can't defer it forever being true to its aggressive anti-German, anti-Italian revanchist-crusading ideology (and most likely it eventually seeks war as an escape from its political and economic failures), and Anglo-Russian imperial rivalry can only grow worse with these alliance blocks. Sooner or later diplomacy is going to fail, and TTL shall have its own Great War.

It is however correct that the the Anglo-Italo-German bloc (surely supported by Hungary, and quite possibly by Japan, Turkey, and/or Sweden) is going to win this WWI against the Franco-Russian-Spanish bloc (quite possibly supported by Serbia and Romania, quite possibly Bulgaria as well if Turkey is in the war and the 1870s Balkan borders are still in place, but Bulgaria is also likely to take the opposite side of Serbia) with considerably less time (best estimation is about two years), bloodshed, and financial effort than OTL. And this shall leave the victors rather more able to stabilize Europe and the defeated powers (or failing that, contain their revanchism), and remain in contorl of their colonial empires rather longer, and make decolonization a more controlled affair.
 
Last edited:
Well maybe I meant that wrong. Technology can advance at an OTL pace, but colonies stay more loyal? LordKalvans answer is really what I was saying. WW1 will be much later and probably not happen at all (Maybe), that can give Italy time to make a greater colonial presence.
Well for what it's worth, no Great War type conflict will strengthen colonial powers considerably. But that won't make opposition any less in and of itself, it just means that the colonial powers can crush it quickly. How often were the colonies a good place for the native populations as a whole? Now granted IOTL it was far from roses after independence but all I can see from your proposal for continued European hegemony is more brutal repression and limited socio-economic mobility for the natives. So forgive me if I'm unenthusiastic. When the colonies did improve how often was that a result of the weaker nature of the great powers (that is, they weren't strong enough to just keep crushing them)? That's not going to happen either.
 

Eurofed

Banned
Well for what it's worth, no Great War type conflict will strengthen colonial powers considerably. But that won't make opposition any less in and of itself, it just means that the colonial powers can crush it quickly. How often were the colonies a good place for the native populations as a whole? Now granted IOTL it was far from roses after independence but all I can see from your proposal for continued European hegemony is more brutal repression and limited socio-economic mobility for the natives. So forgive me if I'm unenthusiastic. When the colonies did improve how often was that a result of the weaker nature of the great powers (that is, they weren't strong enough to just keep crushing them)? That's not going to happen either.

There is much to be said about a slower, more gradual decolonization that is managed by strong liberal democracies and only realized when the new nations have the socio-economic, political, cultural structures in place to manage their independence, as opposed to demagogues and strongmen snatching it from exhausted powers or decaying dictatorships and immediately proceeding to send the new nations into a crash course in kleptocracy, tribalism, genocide, authoritarianism, totalitarianism, failed state collapse, fundamentalism, or a merry mix of the above. As for an exmaple of colonial rule that ended up being a lot beneficial for its former subjects, despite all its flaws, I need only point out to the British Raj. Weaker colonial powers typically didn't result into an improvement of the colonial rule, it meant a premature withdrawal of the colonial rule and a takeover of a native regime worse than the previous one.
 
Well, the idea of a technological slowdown is really ASB, except insofar as we may not have a WWII in TTL, and lack the boost to scientific and technolgical research that it induced (although this is not sure as well, we have to balance the effect of no war-spurred research boost against the huge destruction that it wrought on Europe), but Lord Kalvan is absolutely correct. However, I think you are interpreting his point wrong about WWI.

Yes, I understand you, I looked back and LordKalvan did say it would happen earlier. Common sense at work however, that seems logical :p

The author is king, but please be mindful that ITTL WWI is most likely to occur somewhat earlier, although it shall indeed be rather shorter, less bloody, and less expensive. On top of the usual imperialistic rivalries between the Anglo-Italo-German bloc and the Franco-Russo-Spanish bloc, you shall have a sharp ideological Cold War-like clash (with religious overtones) between the former, liberal alliance, and the latter, reactionary one. In the lack of MAD stabilizing the blocs, these tensions are fated to explode into a general war, and since they shall be worse than IOTL, most likely earlier than 1914. Political and diplomatic butterflies are of course at work here, so the precise year and the trigger point may vary, but the most likely schedule is sometime in the 1890s, give or take half a decade.

Earlier than the late 1880s or early 1890s, Germany and Italy still have to do some serious nation-building, France has to recover from the last war, do some nation-building of its own in Spain, Russia some basic modernization, and colonial race is a source of possible trigger points, but also a peaceful vent for imperial ambitions. Later than late 1890s and early 1900s, well the Carlist regime in France-Spain can't defer it forever being true to its aggressive anti-German, anti-Italian revanchist-crusading ideology (and most likely it eventually seeks war as an escape from its political and economic failures), and Anglo-Russian imperial rivalry can only grow worse with these alliance blocks. Sooner or later diplomacy is going to fail, and TTL shall have its own Great War.

Absolutley! I agree. It will be so.

It is however correct that the the Anglo-Italo-German bloc (surely supported by Hungary, and quite possibly by Japan, Turkey, and/or Sweden) is going to win this WWI against the Franco-Russian-Spanish bloc (quite possibly supported by Serbia and Romania, quite possibly Bulgaria as well if Turkey is in the war and the 1870s Balkan borders are still in place, but Bulgaria is also likely to take the opposite side of Serbia) with considerably less time (best estimation is about two years), bloodshed, and financial effort than OTL. And this shall leave the victors rather more able to stabilize Europe and the defeated powers (or failing that, contain their revanchism), and remain in contorl of their colonial empires rather longer, and make decolonization a more controlled affair.


but of course they will win! yes, your descriptions of the various factions is dead on and I agree with your victors stabilize Europe etc etc

Well for what it's worth, no Great War type conflict will strengthen colonial powers considerably. But that won't make opposition any less in and of itself, it just means that the colonial powers can crush it quickly. How often were the colonies a good place for the native populations as a whole? Now granted IOTL it was far from roses after independence but all I can see from your proposal for continued European hegemony is more brutal repression and limited socio-economic mobility for the natives. So forgive me if I'm unenthusiastic. When the colonies did improve how often was that a result of the weaker nature of the great powers (that is, they weren't strong enough to just keep crushing them)? That's not going to happen either.

it appears Italy will have to act quickly. I take your words to heart and as a respected reader, I would not want to do anything you don't want (This is clearly a very user friendly TL. Its for the people!). I will try to extend "colonial times" for a few years IF necessary. Otherwise, Italy and Prussia will just have to hustle in their colonial ventures. Hegemony in Europe on the other hand... :D
 
There is much to be said about a slower, more gradual decolonization that is managed by strong liberal democracies and only realized when the new nations have the socio-economic, political, cultural structures in place to manage their independence, as opposed to demagogues and strongmen snatching it from exhausted powers or decaying dictatorships and immediately proceeding to send the new nations into a crash course in kleptocracy, tribalism, genocide, authoritarianism, totalitarianism, failed state collapse, fundamentalism, or a merry mix of the above. As for an exmaple of colonial rule that ended up being a lot beneficial for its former subjects, despite all its flaws, I need only point out to the British Raj. Weaker colonial powers typically didn't result into an improvement of the colonial rule, it meant a premature withdrawal of the colonial rule and a takeover of a native regime worse than the previous one.
There might a lot said, but nothing in what was said so far indicates that we're moving towards a world a strong liberal democracies. If you'll allow me to paraphrase what you said: "We need to educate the natives so they don't destroy the place after we're gone, for their own good." Maybe so, but that's an incredible rarity and there's no reason it's going to happen here. You think the Raj was a net positive for India? Well you can make that argument certainly. Myself I don't think it made much difference and did a lot to contribute to the eventual situation of India and Pakistan pointing nuclear tipped spears at each other.

@FC: I think you should worry more about your own vision for the TL more than what I want or not. I'll be happy as long as the TL stays well written.
 

Eurofed

Banned
but of course they will win! yes, your descriptions of the various factions is dead on and I agree with your victors stabilize Europe etc etc

Yes, barring mind-boggling military incompetence, the B-G-I Alliance is surely going to win and their WW is going to be rather more benign than ours. However, even a two-years Euroasian total war between the great powers of the day is still going to be a world-defining experience from an IC PoV.

Just to give you more food for thought, I shall point out that the victors managing to stabilize Europe and avoiding WWII is indeed the most likely outcome. However, it is also possible that they fail to check a revanchist resurgence and/or totalitarian takeover in Russia (it may happen in France as well, but it is also possible that they learned their lesson after being beten down thrice in a century, and a revanchist France alone would be steamrolled) because they are distracted by say budding imperial rivalry with America in the Pacific (not too likely but definitely possible, eg. if they fall to protectionism or ideological colonial-anticolonial rivalry), a rising China (say it manages to pull its own modernization), turmoil in the Asian colonies (Africa is in the early 20th century still too backward for that), an economic crisis (possible but not really likely), or a mix of the above. An opportunistic expansionist Japan may add to the main problem, but not be it or it would be squished. Say you could have a nasty Russia as TTL's "Nazi Germany", a nasty France as TTL's "fascist Italy", and Japan, well, is Japan (although a rising China could take its place).

But again, this is a possible outcome to explore if one puposefully wants to add a bit more "interesting times" to the TL, whileas the long Pax Britannica-Germanica-Italica is the most likely outcome.


I will try to extend "colonial times" for a few years IF necessary. Otherwise, Italy and Prussia will just have to hustle in their colonial ventures. Hegemony in Europe on the other hand... :D

Well, I see no good reason whatsoever why the colonial age should not last at least as long as OTL in Asia, and a lot of reasons why it should last about 10-20 years longer in Africa (to its benefit), with stronger colonial great powers and likely no rival great powers giving such support to anticolonial movements as OTL Soviet Russia. This is going to give Italy and Germany (you have reached the point in your TL where Prussia becomes Germany, soon to be Greater germany, FC, it's not Prussia anymore :p) about 70-90 years to enjoy the colonial empires they won before and after the Great War. :cool:

Their hegemony in Europe is indeed going to be without end, all the way to eventual EU-like unification (Britain not going to be averse to it, with them part of the triumvirate on top). Even if Russia were to pull a Hitler/Stalin, France a Mussolini, and Japan/China a Tojo, they would just be eventually beaten down again. Even with Russian industrialization, the strategic equation for a possible WWII is still much in favor of a less exhausted Britain, a stronger Germany, and a much stronger Italy (its potential fulfilled, indeed).
 

Eurofed

Banned
There might a lot said, but nothing in what was said so far indicates that we're moving towards a world a strong liberal democracies.

We are moving towards a world where the leading global powers from ca. 1900 to 2009 shall be three liberal democratic constitutional monarchies, eventually joined into an even stronger Europe united by them, and America, even if Russia and China were to backslide towards nasty regimes, they shall be effectively contained, likely there shall be no WWII or totalitarianism, and even in the worse unlikely case, a second great war rather less destructive to Europe shall end totalitarianism for good.

If you'll allow me to paraphrase what you said: "We need to educate the natives so they don't destroy the place after we're gone, for their own good." Maybe so, but that's an incredible rarity and there's no reason it's going to happen here.

Indeed very few colonial power do it on purpose. The Raj's benefits did not happen out of London's humanitarian drive, they strived to set up something that worked for them and the benefits to the natives were consequences. What I expect is that strong liberal great powers that are not crippled by world wars shall manage to extend something come close to that kind of standard across a large part of their late colonial empires.

You think the Raj was a net positive for India? Well you can make that argument certainly. Myself I don't think it made much difference and did a lot to contribute to the eventual situation of India and Pakistan pointing nuclear tipped spears at each other.

Sincerely, while one may have an argument about Pakistan being an abject failure, the dark shadow to India's shining success story, and whether partition was a serious mistake or a regrettable case of "sacrificing the least to save the most", the nuclear stand-off seems IMO far from the worse problem in the region. If anything needs to be said about that, I find a more pressing and realistic concern the eventuality of Pakistan collapsing and its nukes eventually ending up in the hands of some mad mullah than the bickering between regional powers ever going nuclear. We spent the Cold War listening to pacifist doomsayers preaching of the inevitability of nuclear conflict if we wouldn't go into an appeasement lovefest with the Soviets and we are still here, neither dead nor red.
 
Top