3rd June 2003:
Chancellor of Germany Gerhard Schroeder was full of back slaps and pats on the shoulder as he shook hands with President Try Sutrisno. Try brought in Minister of Foreign Affairs Marzuki Darusman and Minister of Defense and Security with him while Schroeder was accompanied by Vice Chancellor/Minister of Foreign Affairs Joschka Fischer and Minister of Defence Peter Struck. Schroeder was saying quite loudly that “now that we’re both re-elected, we can get down to business”. When the cameras were told to leave the room that was literally what they got down to.
After a brief introduction, Schroeder allowed Struck to speak. Struck would go on to give a presentation which sounded to all in the room like it had been given by him for a second time. Struck himself would admit that he had given the same presentation when meeting`with Wiranto, that Wiranto had “unexpectedly” shown objection to what was presented, and that both ministers agreed that the matter should be referred to their heads of government. Schroeder asked what the objection was to which Try nodded for Wiranto to speak.
Wiranto said that as far as what the Germans are offering in terms of military equipment, Indonesia thanks Germany for what has been placed on offer and that this was in line with what ABRI wants for its development; it was just the case that the price offered was still too high. Marzuki suppressed a smile when Wiranto pulled out the line he used with the French, asking for both a repeat discount and quantity discount.
Schroeder only chuckled and challenged Wiranto that a quantity discount means an increased quantity. Try countered that an increased quantity either means an increased quantity discount or something else like faster delivery or a production license. Both Fischer and Struck could see that Schroeder was enjoying this and allowed their chancellor leeway. Marzuki saw that this was the kind of haggling one saw in the Indonesian market, where both the buyer and the seller knew that a deal was coming it was just a matter of how much fun they could have with each other on the way to the deal. Wiranto would later recall that “The Chancellor of Germany was as keen to sell German military equipment as our President was to acquire them.”
The final part of the bargaining came when Wiranto enquired about the availability of Germany’s MiG-29s. Schroeder scoffed and said that Germany had originally intended to let Poland have the 22 MiG-29s at its disposal. But then Poland cancelled the procurement after Germany signed its Northern European Gas Pipeline Deal with Russia and have ended up signing an agreement with the United States to procure the 28 F-16s Indonesia was interested in at a discounted price. Though somewhat disappointed that Indonesia only asked for 12, Schroeder accepted and gave a discounted price. Fischer and Struck knew that even at a discounted price, Germany would be making more from the MiG-29 sale to Indonesia than the price it originally offered Poland.
While Wiranto and Struck went over the terms for an MoU on Indonesia procuring more military equipment from Germany (an official agreement would only be signed once the price had been finalized after the changes in the quantity of equipment purchased and Schroeder’s discounts), Try and Marzuki continued the talks with Schroeder and Fischer.
Schroeder talked at length about how a multipolar world has made the international situation favorable for Germany to advance its goals and its interests. Regarding the “humanitarian intervention” in Yugoslavia, Fischer explained that despite participating in 1999 Germany had decided to sit the present campaign out in part because promising to not participate in Yugoslavia help get the SPD/Green coalition re-elected and in part because of the Northern Europe Gas Pipeline agreement it had signed with Russia.
“Mr. Chancellor, how do you suppose Yugoslavia will turn out?” asked Try.
“You mean who will win, Mr. President?” asked Schroeder “All of us.”
Try and Marzuki were taken aback by this.
“If you would be so kind as to elaborate, Mr. Chancellor”, said Marzuki.
“The United States are at this stage involved in two wars, Afghanistan and Yugoslavia”, Schroeder “They are preoccupied with getting those who caught them unawares on 11th September in Afghanistan while at the same time trying to prove that this world is still a unipolar one in Yugoslavia.
You look at what’s happening in Afghanistan. The Taliban’s been overthrown and Osama Bin Laden’s nowhere to be found. But what’s the guarantee that the Taliban won’t return if we pull out from Afghanistan? And we can’t say that we’re done with Bin Laden so long as he is still alive. The United States is not done with Afghanistan, not by a longshot.
And now this thing in Yugoslavia. Montenegro is liberated and by the looks of things, President McCain is bent on finishing the job that remains undone in 1999 and that is to unseat President Slobodan Milosevic. But then what? They think Milosevic is not without his followers? I don’t know what President Primakov’s intention is in Yugoslavia but he can be said to have won if somehow the United States were to get stuck in Yugoslavia.
And so will the rest of us emerge victorious. As powerful as the United States is they can’t be everywhere to take care of everything and this will be even more so if they’re tied up in both Afghanistan and Yugoslavia. Others will be better able to advance their cause economically, militarily or otherwise if the United States is distracted.”
When the meeting ended and as he walked to his next meeting, Try only had one question though he did not want to ask it to Schroeder directly out so as not to jeopardize the Leopards, Marders, MiG-29s and other equipments mentioned in Wiranto and Struck’s MoU.
“When the Chancellor spoke about “all of us” does he literally mean everyone in the world or just those wanting to become a pole?” asked Try.
En route to their next meeting, Wiranto tagged out and now Try and Marzuki found themselves being joined by State Secretary Edi Sudrajat. Just as they arrived at their next meeting room however, someone was coming out having evidently had their last meeting there. He had a dark skin and though he had a pleasant expression on his face, Try could not help but feel that he was being glared at when he looked at this person’s eyes.
“Mr. Secretary General, good to see you”, Try said to Secretary General of the UN Kofi Annan.
It was, as Try would agree, Annan being polite. Annan asked about how Indonesia had handled SARS and Try obliged. The only real moment that there was underlying tension was when Try asked how Annan was doing and Annan said that he’s been kept busy by Sudan and both its civil war and the “developing situation in Darfur”. With the Sudanese Civil War, Annan confessed that negotiating peace was difficult because the South Sudanese only sees autonomy as a stepping stone to an independence referendum and would not settle for less.
“This is why I am still concerned for those whose settlements only leave them with autonomy, Mr. President”, Annan said “I worry that such settlements are not actually settled yet.”
Try tried his best to smile while Edi could no longer hide that he was not smiling. It fell to Marzuki to step in.
“Whichever solution works for a given situation is the best one, Mr. Secretary General”, said Marzuki “I cannot speak for Sudan, but I believe that the settlement which was agreed to for Indonesia’s situation has worked for the best. So much so that Papua New Guinea has sought to settle its situation with the Bougainvilleans the same way.”
“If you say so”, Annan said in a flat tone before excusing himself.
After taking a moment to calm himself down, Try stepped into the meeting room. Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Gordon Brown was there to shake his hand, once again looking like he really wanted to talk about something with Try. Brown was accompanied by Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs Alistair Darling.
The initial discussion was a bit pedestrian. The two leaders talked about Exor III, a project between Pertamina and British Petroleum, which was still under construction. The British enjoyed the possibility put forward by that despite starting later than Exor II, Exor III looked set to finish earlier than Exor II. But then the conversation took a different turn.
“100 Chinese MBTs heading in Malaysia’s direction, Mr. President”, Brown said, changing the topic abruptly “What do you make of that?”
Try looked Marzuki and Edi before answering Brown.
“Well, it means the People’s Republic of China continues its effort to increase its influence in Southeast Asia, Mr. Prime Minister”, Try said “Of course last year they supported the emergence of the new regime in Myanmar and now this…”
“Where does that put Malaysia in Indonesia’s radar as far as it being a security threat is concerned?” asked Brown.
“Well, it’s not Malaysia we’re concerned about, Mr. Prime Minister, after all we just had a territorial dispute last December which was ruled in their favor and despite our less than ideal relations, we did not dispute the ruling or try to engage in a show of strength”, said Marzuki “What we’re concerned about is the nation that has sold those MBTs to Malaysia and its intentions towards Southeast Asia.”
Try watched the conversation unfold in front of him.
Brown keeps on asking about Malaysia even though we direct the conversation to China…he’s been looking at me like he wants to say something all summit…maybe it’s Malaysia he wants to talk about, thought Try.
“The news from Malaysia does concern us because it shows hostility on the part of Prime Minister Najib; claiming that he has made this decision to counter our alleged aspirations, Prime Minister Brown”, Try said “It’s just that some months ago when I visited the United Kingdom and you were not in government, Prime Minister Blair has told us that regardless of good relations between Indonesia and the United Kingdom, the United Kingdom’s treaty obligations means if push comes to shove it would have to side with Malaysia over Indonesia.”
Brown looked at Try with a pleased expression now that they were starting to have the conversation he wanted.
“He spoke about the FPDA?” asked Brown.
“He did, Mr. Prime Minister”, Try replied.
“Well, first and foremost my predecessor needs to get it right; the FPDA only provides for consultations between its signatories not military intervention”, Brown said dismissively as though Tony Blair was in the room before turning serious “Secondly the situation has changed. In September 2002 the stance of the government is that as long as Malaysia’s relationship with China is limited to the economic field then there is no concern, in January 2003 there is the first hint of information that Malaysia is seeking to buy weapons from China and it is to warn against this, in addition to making sure that Indonesia keeps quiet during the intervention in Yugoslavia, that prompted my predecessor to send some military aid your way.”
“Evidently, Malaysia has ignored your warning”, Try said seeing Brown’s face turning grim.
“Evidently”, Brown said “And at the moment whether we are in the middle of the Second Cold War or in the middle of a Multipolar Moment is irrelevant. On the grand scale, the United Kingdom is on the United States’ side and China is on Russia’s side. At the same time, we have a commitment in the form of the FPDA. Yet, Malaysia has now taken a decisive step into China’s orbit if this continues, we will find ourselves in a situation where to side with Malaysia as part of the FPDA, whether that be against Indonesia or anyone else, will be to the benefit of China. It is unacceptable for us if Malaysia was to continue to seek the protection of the FPDA even as it lines up with China on major strategic matters.”
“Could you not have stopped Malaysia from making the decision it did?” asked Marzuki.
Brown turned to Darling.
“The Brown Labor Government has been in existence for nearly 3 months and because we have come into being on the basis that the United Kingdom will not participate in the Humanitarian Intervention in Yugoslavia, we busied ourselves with other matters in this instance Malaysia’s intention to procure weapons from China”, Darling said “There were exchanges of letters between the Prime Minister and Prime Minister Najib…more importantly, we also tried to mobilize the others in the FPDA to advice Malaysia against this course of action.”
“How did that effort go, Mr. Foreign Secretary?” asked Marzuki.
“Singapore cautioned Malaysia against making the purchase out of concern that this might cause a breach in the FPDA and widen the existing breach in ASEAN between the Jakarta Bloc and those standing against it”, Darling began “New Zealand was at first non-committal, now Australia…”
“Australia, you would be interested to know, is very supportive of Malaysia procuring weapons from China and even convinced New Zealand to also show its support for Malaysia”, Brown interrupted, seeing the expression on Try’s face darken “It was because of Australia and New Zealand’s support, but especially the former, that Najib felt certain about going forward with is procurement even with the United Kingdom’s warning.”
Try processed the information by looking grimly at the floor.
“Evidently, the nations giving the United Kingdom concern is also giving Indonesia concern”, Brown said.
“Evidently”, Try said “But you are also in a grouping with these same nations which, if I’m seeing the dynamics between Malaysia and Australia correctly, are positioning Indonesia as the security threat. How can we trust the United Kingdom?”
“I understand that, Mr. President”, Brown said “But you of all people must know what it’s like being in an organization where the People’s Republic of China is not a member but it tries to benefit by proxy.”
When the meeting ended, Brown and his delegation were the one to leave first leaving Try, Marzuki, and Edi to ponder what just happened.
“The United Kingdom confirming that it will assist financially if we want to buy the SEPECAT Jaguar as well as promising that the military equipment which they will no longer use as part of their defense restructuring can be made available to us if we want it…”, Edi said “Now that’s something.”
“Perhaps it’s not such a surprise given what we heard in Bahrain”, Marzuki said “If they want to make themselves useful to the United States without participating in Yugoslavia, then this is the way to do it and if we benefit from it, so much the better.”
Try was just glad to have the meeting with Brown over and done with for it meant that the G-8 Summit was coming to a close. The summit ended at lunchtime with a leaders’ communique, the suggestion to establish a forum for the major world economies, whether developed or emerging, getting top billing there. For Try, there was a quick meeting with President of France Alain Juppe to say his farewells and then it was across the border to Geneva, Switzerland to the Cointrin Airport, the Presidential Airplane and the flight back home to Jakarta.
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In OTL, Germany’s Mig-29 went to Poland (
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Mikoyan_MiG-29_operators#_Poland). In ITTL however, Poland got pissed Germany and Russia signed the agreement to make ITTL’s Nordstream I and cancelled the purchase of Mig-29 and instead got the 28 F-16s Indonesia interested in. Incidentally in OTL, Poland also was less than unhappy with Nordstream I (
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2006/may/01/eu.poland).
The Second Sudanese Civil War and the events of Darfur being mentioned by Annan here.
Bung
@Kosaki_MacTavish has a sharp nose, saying that the FPDA would become unworkable if Malaysia gets into China’s orbit. Here, the UK wants to nip things the bud but with the secret motive of remaining in the US’ good books despite not participating with Yugoslavia and wanting to elbow Australia out of the way and have the US’ ear once again.