How much land could the Almohad realistically gain with a victory at Las Navas de Tolosa

[Abd ar-Rahman II]

How much land could the Almohad realistically take with a big victory at Las navas de los Tolosa i have seen a lot of scenario were that lead to a semi Re-Reconquista were the vast majority of the peninsula end in Muslim control (wich seem a little improbable to me since Leon didn’t participated at the battle and the other Christian kingdom still at resource and possibility of soutien from other Catholic Crusade) and other would be able to make but far more moderated . Now let’s say Las Navas is a crushing Almohad victory with near totality if the Christian fore massacred and the Iberian leadership either dead or captured what territory and city could the Almohad take ? What are they shot at taking Lisbon Toledo , Madrid , Zaragoza or Tortosa in the decade following the battle ?

 

[Ivan Lupo]

The battle took place at Despeñaperros, which is the major pass leading from the upper Guadalquivir River leading into Toledo and the Tagus River. Toledo would have been immediately threatened with a victory, and if the Almohads crushed the Christians, probably take Toledo with no reinforcements in sight. If they could manage to capture Alfonso VIII of Castile, they could just easily demand Toledo as the price of his ransom.

The Portuguese had sent troops to fight with Alfonso, but I don't believe it was close to their entire army, unlike the contingents brought by Castile, Navarre, and Aragon under their respective kings, so Lisbon would probably be immediately fortified after such a major defeat. Badajoz would be isolated from the rest of León, so it too would be immediately threatened, but the Leonese under Alfonso IX would also immediately fortfify it as well.

Toledo would be a huge loss though and from there the Almohads would be able to threaten the rest of the peninsula.

 

[Abd ar-Rahman II]

Badajoz would be isolated from the rest of León, so it too would be immediately threatened, but the Leonese under Alfonso IX would also immediately fortfify it as well.

Toledo would be a huge loss though and from there the Almohads would be able to threaten the rest of the peninsula.

Wasn’t Badajoz still Muslim at this time and only taken in 1230 ?

 

[Ivan Lupo]

Wasn’t Badajoz still Muslim at this time and only taken in 1230 ?

That's correct actually, I didn't realize my mistake until after I posted.

 

[Nivek]

That's correct actually, I didn't realize my mistake until after I posted.

They would recover the turn of millennium land easily

 

[Osman Aga]

How much land could the Almohad realistically take with a big victory at Las navas de los Tolosa i have seen a lot of scenario were that lead to a semi Re-Reconquista were the vast majority of the peninsula end in Muslim control (wich seem a little improbable to me since Leon didn’t participated at the battle and the other Christian kingdom still at resource and possibility of soutien from other Catholic Crusade) and other would be able to make but far more moderated . Now let’s say Las Navas is a crushing Almohad victory with near totality if the Christian fore massacred and the Iberian leadership either dead or captured what territory and city could the Almohad take ? What are they shot at taking Lisbon Toledo , Madrid , Zaragoza or Tortosa in the decade following the battle ?

Depending on where they move. Realistically speaking I expect a move against Castile, and maybe Portugal. Aragon the least likely because they don't form a bigger threat to cities like Sevilla/Cordoba.

How much... hard to guess. Maybe to the Tagus river between todays Spain and Portugal + parts of Altenjo in Portugal? I don't really know their exact realm in Iberia. It shows between lands bordering the Tagus river and land not bordering it. Maybe they succeed in taking back Toledo from the Christians. What I am certain is that they will raid a lot of towns during their Campaign.

A victory during Las Navas de Tolosa seems hard to me because the nature of the battle was actually an ambush by the Christian forces. The Almohads were captured by surprise. A field battle nearby or the Almohads being alerted early on by the presence of a nearby Christian Army could lead to such scenario.

 

[Abd ar-Rahman II]

A victory during Las Navas de Tolosa seems hard to me because the nature of the battle was actually an ambush by the Christian forces. The Almohads were captured by surprise. A field battle nearby or the Almohads being alerted early on by the presence of a nearby Christian Army could lead to such scenario.

The Pod would pretty much be that .

 

[Nivek]

The Pod would pretty much be that .

That is a great start

 

[Blaze]

Toledo and the Tagus should be the maximum they would be able to atain. As said, Aragon is little threat and Portugal and Leon sent only small forces so they are fairly intact. Furthermore, the loss of Toledo would most likely trigger another Crusade against the Almohads.

So maybe they can delay the collapse of Muslim Iberia at best.

 

[Nivek]

Toledo and the Tagus should be the maximum they would be able to atain. As said, Aragon is little threat and Portugal and Leon sent only small forces so they are fairly intact. Furthermore, the loss of Toledo would most likely trigger another Crusade against the Almohads.

So maybe they can delay the collapse of Muslim Iberia at best.

This change a lot of things, give Muslim back their better defensive border..it will be a series of skirmish now

 

[Abd ar-Rahman II]

Toledo and the Tagus should be the maximum they would be able to atain. As said, Aragon is little threat and Portugal and Leon sent only small forces so they are fairly intact. Furthermore, the loss of Toledo would most likely trigger another Crusade against the Almohads.

So maybe they can delay the collapse of Muslim Iberia at best.

Also would the castillan defeat help Leon maintain their independence ?

 

[Blaze]

This change a lot of things, give Muslim back their better defensive border..it will be a series of skirmish now

The Reconquista was always mostly based on skirmishes and taking of fortifications with the occasional battle, so they may stabilise the border for some time, true. But the christians kingdoms will eventually recover while Muslim Iberia will never survive withouth support from Marroco. And this may not be forthcoming the moment thay have a succesion crisis like what happened in the following decades.

 

[Blaze]

Also would the castillan defeat help Leon maintain their independence ?

Maybe. A weakened Castille would certainly not be able to stop Alfonso IX daughters from taking the throne as he wanted it. Historically, Ferdinand III had popular support, but with a defeat at Las Navas it is doubtfull that such a taking would still happen

 

[Galba Otho Vitelius]

Could Leon and Portugal unite? I think there was a discussion about this recently.

 

[Nivek]

Could Leon and Portugal unite? I think there was a discussion about this recently.

Could Leon and Portugal unite? I think there was a discussion about this recently.

Nah if somethign learned from brazilian, Portugese loved their independance and might throw other kingdom to the wolves first.

The Reconquista was always mostly based on skirmishes and taking of fortifications with the occasional battle, so they may stabilise the border for some time, true. But the christians kingdoms will eventually recover while Muslim Iberia will never survive withouth support from Marroco. And this may not be forthcoming the moment thay have a succesion crisis like what happened in the following decades.

A generalization, this could derail all plans now

 

[Blaze]

Nah if somethign learned from brazilian, Portugese loved their independance and might throw other kingdom to the wolves first.


A generalization, this could derail all plans now

It´s the XIII century. It can be doable the same way Castille absorbed Leon.

It´s not. Most of the time it was a low-intensity conflict with raids punctuated with periods of high-intensity fighting. There were plenty of battles, of course, but these were always the exception, not the norm. Furthermore, the christians also suffered heavy defeats at Alarcas and Sagrajas before that stabilized the borders for some time and in some cases reversed christian gains but eventually the christian kingdoms recovered. Also one of the most important aspects is that Al-Nasr himself died just 2 years after the battle heralding a regency period for the Almohads with disastrous consequences for Muslim Iberia.

 

[Abd ar-Rahman II]

It´s not. Most of the time it was a low-intensity conflict with raids punctuated with periods of high-intensity fighting. There were plenty of battles, of course, but these were always the exception, not the norm. Furthermore, the christians also suffered heavy defeats at Alarcas and Sagrajas before that stabilized the borders for some time and in some cases reversed christian gains but eventually the christian kingdoms recovered. Also one of the most important aspects is that Al-Nasr himself died just 2 years after the battle heralding a regency period for the Almohads with disastrous consequences for Muslim Iberia.

Losing Toledo would probably still be the biggest setback the Christian will suffer so far . Also wasn’t Al-Nasr assasinated OTL and only 38 ? If his defeat lead to his assasination which is probable then the Almohad could have some two decade to stabilize and expand a little further in Iberia (thinking about them taking Lisbon at some point) but yeah in the long term the Almohads are pretty screwed seeing how everyone hated them . And depending on what happen in the ATL fall of the Almohad and if the dynasty succeeding them is more successful at taking al Andalusia the fall of Al Andalus except Grenada could be delayed for some century .

 

[Silver01]

Losing Toledo would probably still be the biggest setback the Christian will suffer so far . Also wasn’t Al-Nasr assasinated OTL and only 38 ? If his defeat lead to his assasination which is probable then the Almohad could have some two decade to stabilize and expand a little further in Iberia (thinking about them taking Lisbon at some point) but yeah in the long term the Almohads are pretty screwed seeing how everyone hated them . And depending on what happen in the ATL fall of the Almohad and if the dynasty succeeding them is more successful at taking al Andalusia the fall of Al Andalus except Grenada could be delayed for some century .

its not like they have already happend after alfonso lost at sagrajas , the south of spain still being Muslims is really plausible unless there is a battle like rio salado or like navas de tolosa since at this point the muslims really depend on morocco to fight off the Christians

 

[Osman Aga]

its not like they have already happend after alfonso lost at sagrajas , the south of spain still being Muslims is really plausible unless there is a battle like rio salado or like navas de tolosa since at this point the muslims really depend on morocco to fight off the Christians

Which brought me to the idea... why don't the Almohads settle some unruly Berber and Arab tribes on the frontier in Iberia? Just like the Seljuks did with Turkmen Nomads. Let them skirmish with the Christians and be less of a problem to you.

 

[Silver01]

Which brought me to the idea... why don't the Almohads settle some unruly Berber and Arab tribes on the frontier in Iberia? Just like the Seljuks did with Turkmen Nomads. Let them skirmish with the Christians and be less of a problem to you.

well there is a problem there the seljuks where one of many who settled the numbers of berbers and arabs are not as high as the turks that came from the 11th and especially 13th century to anatolia , also that the Spanish kingdoms while with their internal fighting and all are not post basil byzantine empire that allowed the turks to sweep trough aslo the spanish and portguese can and most likely will recivie help from their neighboors with the popes calling for new crusades in spain i think in time the chirstians would reconquer toledo but maybe by the time they do the muslims established themselves
it would also depend on how devastating the plague is 1340s (the mongol empire has already been founded in 1212 and the climatic reasons are still here) if it weaknes all a lot of disproportionally affects one kingdom more than another or if it hits during an already existing succession crisis or creates one