How Far the U.S. Would Have Annexed Mexico

[Legend-in-Exile]

Do the Mexico annexed one, let's say USA annexes way more of Mexico, like half of it. Then, Mexico would be most likely under more threat from foreign powers to the point Mexico ends up like the Dominican Republic scenario. How does that go?

Except if the US annexes half of Mexico, the foreign power they will be most afraid of will be the USA. Which makes the likelihood of them suing to join the union fairly low.
They'd probably cosy up to european powers to try and stave off any repeat US invasions. Whether that would work is anyones guess, europeans usually couldn't mount effective interventions in the Americas post 1820 or so, but a USA that looks set to gobble up two continents, may get the various european powers to unite long enough to dismantle the threat.

 

[Tallest Skil]

Do the Mexico annexed one, let's say USA annexes way more of Mexico, like half of it. Then, Mexico would be most likely under more threat from foreign powers

It seems like the opposite would be true. A US that takes Mexico to the Tropic of Cancer will be so imposing that the Europeans will likely leave Mexico alone. It would be little more than a puppet state at this point, anyway.

 

[EnglishCanuck]

It seems like the opposite would be true. A US that takes Mexico to the Tropic of Cancer will be so imposing that the Europeans will likely leave Mexico alone. It would be little more than a puppet state at this point, anyway.

That would be if the US cared enough to intervene in a rump Mexico. They may have bigger problems in their expansion.

 

[TickTock The Witch's Dead]

It seems like the opposite would be true. A US that takes Mexico to the Tropic of Cancer will be so imposing that the Europeans will likely leave Mexico alone. It would be little more than a puppet state at this point, anyway.

Did France invade Mexico to make it pay its debts? Because then how does a bigger U.S. affect that?

 

[British Republic]

Louisiana I can see, but Mexico obtaining Oregon? That's a little farfetched without a further back POD.

That is what I meant.

 

[mrmandias]

That’s a great map, minus the Yucatan, yep. Pretty much exactly it.

I doubt that Cuba was one of Polk's Mexican War aims.

 

[TickTock The Witch's Dead]

I doubt that Cuba was one of Polk's Mexican War aims.

Yeah. Hat was a different Manifesto.

 

[Luminous]

Well, to throw my two cents in, the US probably could have taken the border states with a point of divergence as of the war, at least. They wanted to get Baja California as it is, and that would be requisite if the US wanted the mouth of the Colorado river. After that, it only depends on how much they wanted to press, and if they decided to use the second set of funds that were delegated for any further concessions.

Now, what might be better is to take the timeline a few years back. A more favorable Adams-Otis treaty could have encouraged greater concessions, but that is unlikely unless problems in Spain become stupendously bad. After that, the next best thing would be for the Rio Grande Republic to survive longer. It doesn't have to exist for long, but if it manages to stay afloat for a few years, allowing the natives to build an identity separate from Mexico proper, that might be enough for the US to take advantage of it.

Compound that with an earlier Republic of Yucatan, and an earlier letter to the US Congress asking for joining the Union, and you might see the US looking to acquire them all. In addition to Texas's disputed territories and California, the US could demand the Rio Grande Republic and its disputed territories, the Republic of Yucatan and any disputed territories, and the adjacent territories of Baja California, Sonora, Sinaloa, and a few disparate territories to establish clean and defensible borders.

This, of course, requires the chips to fall in the right place to create such a favorable turn of events, but it doesn't seem out of the realm of possibility. And this does not mean that the US could hold its gains after the war. The Yucatan would be very tricky, as stated earlier.

Let's say that this does happen. What would happen as a result of this? The various Mexican states (now territories) would request statehood. The North would be very concerned, as they fall under the Mason-Dixon. However, if I recall correctly, the natives would not have been very fond of slavery being extended to their territories. The dynamic would be very awkward, to say the least.

As for demographics, it was stated that in a previous thread that there would be about 2.5 million natives in the additional annexed portion. Two million would be on the mainland. I don't recall the percentage, but a lot of the natives of Alta California left for Mexico proper. They would have received citizenship after so many years, but they chose to leave. I believe that it was over 50%.

For assumptions sake, let's say 25% from the other possessions leave total. Which would give 1.5 million on the mainland, most of which probably would be concentrated around the Rio Grande Republic. (what would a demonym for a resident of that republic be, anywho?) That doesn't count the natives, which didn't all speak Spanish, either.

tl;dr, It certainly would be possible. The US didn't even get its starting position IOTL, mind. And it could have been a lot more favorable.

As for Mexico, a favorable point of divergence would be needed for them to keep California, but it certainly isn't impossible. It would be very hard to keep the Louisiana territory, considering how fast the US grows. A very unfavorable turn of events in 1812, with the US losing a lot of its territory, could give Mexico enough time to grow north. After that, the butterflies begin to flock a bit too much to tell what could potentially happen.

 

[Tallest Skil]

Let's say that this does happen. What would happen as a result of this? The various Mexican states (now territories) would request statehood. The North would be very concerned, as they fall under the Mason-Dixon. However, if I recall correctly, the natives would not have been very fond of slavery being extended to their territories. The dynamic would be very awkward, to say the least.

Assuming a surviving RRG, the three Mexican states comprising it were vehemently against slavery. However the western stuff had low enough populations that they could be slated for slavery. With both Californias in the US’ hands, the California/Colorado split (now at 36º30’) proposed OTL would probably happen, with Colorado being provisionally a slave territory, probably being a slave state before the Civil War (which would happen slightly earlier than OTL).

This would be a Union that partially “surrounds” the Confederacy. The RRG soldiers making trouble in southern Texas and the states in the middle could probably divide Colorado (remember, it’s OTL Baja California and southern California to 36º30’) from the rest of the Confederacy.

 

[Luminous]

Assuming a surviving RRG, the three Mexican states comprising it were vehemently against slavery. However the western stuff had low enough populations that they could be slated for slavery. With both Californias in the US’ hands, the California/Colorado split (now at 36º30’) proposed OTL would probably happen, with Colorado being provisionally a slave territory, probably being a slave state before the Civil War (which would happen slightly earlier than OTL).

This would be a Union that partially “surrounds” the Confederacy. The RRG soldiers making trouble in southern Texas and the states in the middle could probably divide Colorado (remember, it’s OTL Baja California and southern California to 36º30’) from the rest of the Confederacy.

Aye, but why would it happen earlier than OTL? I'd assume that with the pressures of trying to integrate the territories, that they'd have other problems to focus on. Or do you think that such a convoluted map of free vs slave states in the west, along with the politics of the Rio Grande and the Yucatan, would merely exacerbate the problems?

One thing that comes to mind is the difficulty of integrating such a large population that is Catholic. Depending on what might spring forth from the PoD, you might see the US become more religiously tolerant at an earlier point of time than OTL. Maybe it'll make the life of Irish and Italian immigrants a bit easier later on, if it gets that far.

 

[Deleted member 67076]

Dominican Republic wanted annexation for this reason.

No it didn't. DR wanted annexation because president Baez needed a benefactor to cement his control. Very few, both in the elites and the common people wanted to relinquish sovereignty.

 

[Tallest Skil]

I’d assume that with the pressures of trying to integrate the territories, that they’d have other problems to focus on.

I would think that it happens earlier because Dixie would grow desperate sooner. With staunch support of free statism below the Rio Grande in the East and a now well-defined southern border giving a limit to the size of expansion, they’ll run out of land for slave states before the Union runs out of free.

Or do you think that such a convoluted map of free vs slave states in the west, along with the politics of the Rio Grande and the Yucatan, would merely exacerbate the problems?

If we’re calling in the Yucatan, maybe it lasts until ~OTL time, Yucatan being slave. Still, I don’t necessarily see Durango/Sinaloa going slave (though the states carved from the land to their north would be slated for slavery as territories), which means the south is hemmed in. Unless they demand expansion in the Caribbean (gosh, what’s that bill... slips my mind, the US wanted to claim Cuba), there becomes a finite limit to the amount of time the slave/free admission pattern can continue. I think they’d see the writing on the wall.

Depending on what might spring forth from the PoD, you might see the US become more religiously tolerant at an earlier point of time than OTL.

This will happen by necessity. If for no other (early) reason than to appease the citizens thereof and to retain the land gained in the war.

 

[TickTock The Witch's Dead]

No it didn't. DR wanted annexation because president Baez needed a benefactor to cement his control. Very few, both in the elites and the common people wanted to relinquish sovereignty.

Kind of like Scotland allowing England to annex it, wouldn't it?

 

[TickTock The Witch's Dead]

Also, around the late 19th Century could claiming the lands under the Golden Circle be possible if the POds are right?

 

[CthulhuFhtagn]

Kind of like Scotland allowing England to annex it, wouldn't it?

Except that Mexico is much larger compared to the US than Scotland was to England in terms of population. And the Scottish were somewhat mollified by the fact that Scottish man was the new King....

 

[TickTock The Witch's Dead]

Except that Mexico is much larger compared to the US than Scotland was to England in terms of population. And the Scottish were somewhat mollified by the fact that Scottish man was the new King....

I am actually talking about Dominican Republic at this point. But what if Mexico as under a foreign threat that also harms U.S. interests?

 

[Tallest Skil]

Also, around the late 19th Century could claiming the lands under the Golden Circle be possible if the POds are right?

What, the US doing it? No, I can’t see anything like that being able to happen. Not even in a ‘Caribbean possessions unify, get independence with US help, and petition to join the Union’ scenario–never mind that this is nigh completely implausible–but I could be wrong.

And the Scottish were somewhat mollified by the fact that Scottish man was the new King....

I wonder if, given the difference in systems of governance, seeing senators and representatives from the former Mexican territories turned states in positions of equality with the other states (as they would inherently be) wouldn’t act as a similar catalyst... If Mexico’s government is failing these Mexican states...

 

[Deleted member 67076]

Kind of like Scotland allowing England to annex it, wouldn't it?

I fail to see how the comparison is valid unfortunately.

 

[TickTock The Witch's Dead]

What, the US doing it? No, I can’t see anything like that being able to happen. Not even in a ‘Caribbean possessions unify, get independence with US help, and petition to join the Union’ scenario–never mind that this is nigh completely implausible–but I could be wrong.



I wonder if, given the difference in systems of governance, seeing senators and representatives from the former Mexican territories turned states in positions of equality with the other states (as they would inherently be) wouldn’t act as a similar catalyst... If Mexico’s government is failing these Mexican states...

Of course claiming some of the lands needs a POD to date back before the Civil War. Cariibean can be done through War of 1812 if the U.S. had Canada so the British Navy could be crippled without their source of wood.

 

[TickTock The Witch's Dead]

I fail to see how the comparison is valid unfortunately.

Buenaventura Báez did need protection though, but I don't know about the people.