How advanced could native South American seafaring become if the Moche had invented the outrigger canoe around 250 AD?

This is my other Native American seafaring POD (might do another), as Native American seafaring is something deeply fascinating to me, and I personally think that the South Americans were the most advanced, due to both their sail use and their potential contact with Polynesians. And yet, I cannot help but think that given a little bit more advancement, they could have advanced way more in the field of naval development. So how far advanced could Native Americans of South America and even Central America develop seafaring technology and how would it impact their societies (eg, trade routes, and economy)?
 
The main obstacle to Andean civilizations in terms of sea-faring was geography. All of their main trading partners were lined up along the Pacific's eastern rim, which meant that it was never really necessary to develop deep ocean vessels for trade. Unlike the Pacific's western rim, where the Polynesians started out, there aren't many big, fertile islands to expand into. What islands do exist are little more than uninhabited, sandy rocks isolated by hundreds of miles of open ocean. And unlike the Polynesians, the Andeans don't have a rapacious Sinitic civilization slowly encroaching on their land.

If the Americas develop a great sea-faring civilization, Central America may be a much better candidate. They are surrounded by sea on both the east and west, enabling trade with Mesoamerica and the Andes as well as the Caribean and Mississippi. And there are many large lakes in this region to serve as testing grounds for naval technology.

Outrigger canoes are well-suited to small-scale trade of high-value goods, but they don't have the capacity for trade in bulk commodities. So if they develop a sophisticated commercial culture, they'll probably create bigger and bigger boats, something very much like a galley. Any technology beyond that would likely be overkill for navigating the relatively shallow Carribean and West Coast. Especially since bulk trade across the Pacific is not really feasible before steam engines, and open ocean trade would already be dominated by Polynesians.

Trade fosters technological evolution and sophisticated diplomacy. North, Central and Mesoamerica could adopt Andean metallurgy this way. Since writing is really useful for a mercantile culture, Mesoamerican writing systems could spread further south than they did OTL.

Overall, the Americas would be more advanced by Eurasian standards.
 
Great reply. Is there a chance Andean civilizations could get to the Galápagos Islands? (Sorry environment). That might help incentivize further expansion into the Pacific. Plus IIRC, around 800 Andean ships made it Mesoamerica which helped kickstart Mesoamerican metallurgy. So with better seafaring ships and naval technology, there probably would be better and more intense trade between the Andean and Mesoamerican civilizations, which as you said could spread technology, most critically Mesoamerican writing. And by the time the Polynesians arrive circa 1200 AD, the Andean civilizations could be advanced enough to start permanent contact with the pacific, which could ensure Polynesian crops and animals and Andean crops and animals spread in both directions, which revolutionize both societies. Plus if the Inca arise, there is the 1465 expedition, which could lead to the Inca discovery of more of Polynesia and maybe even Papua New Guinea and New Zeland with all that implies.
 
Plus if the Inca arise, there is the 1465 expedition, which could lead to the Inca discovery of more of Polynesia and maybe even Papua New Guinea and New Zeland with all that implies.
The problem is scale. From Ecuador to the Galapagos, it's 1,000 km of open ocean, with little but some rocks and exotic animals at the end of your trip. And from Ecuador to New Zealand, you need to cross a mind-boggling 11,000 km. To put that into perspective: Ecuador is closer to Africa than it is to New Zealand, and the trip stretches for over a quarter of the Earth's cirumference. To Papua New Guinea, it's 14,000 km.

For reference, the longest open-ocean trade route of the Old World was the jump from East Africa to India, a trip that covered "only" 4,000 km. And that voyage was hard enough that it could not be done without exploiting the Monsoon, and motivated by the world's most precious commodities: spices.

The Pacific is gargantuan, covering as much surface as all the Earth's landmasses combined, and containing half her surface water. In a world without modern sailing, power projection across such a vast expanse is virtually impossible. For most of human history, Eurasia-Africa, Oceania and the Americas might as well have been different planets.
 
Okay, so the distances may be a little implausible, but it should be possible for the alt Incas in this scenario to discover French Polynesian and Rapa Nui/Easter Island. In OTL, there are theories that the Incas did reach those islands, and with the invention of the outrigger in this scenario, it should be way easier for the Incas to discover those islands. Of course, that would beg the question: what would happen if the alt Incas did discover those islands?
 
One big problem could be that the prevailing winds and currents take you away from South and Central America. Like most ancient seacraft, canoes weren't great performers upwind, and those heading well offshore would know that they may struggle to return. The mariners of the Pacific could, in general, turn downwind and have the wind and current pushing them home. Heading off into the unknown and knowing that you may struggle to get home would not be a comfortable feeling.

The ocean off South America is also significantly colder than the waters where the Polynesians normally voyaged, which would be a major issue for an outrigger. Even wearing modern clothing, a boat like a small racing catamaran is significantly colder than a monohull sailing dinghy of equivalent size. Exposure could be a very real danger.
 
One big problem could be that the prevailing winds and currents take you away from South and Central America. Like most ancient seacraft, canoes weren't great performers upwind, and those heading well offshore would know that they may struggle to return. The mariners of the Pacific could, in general, turn downwind and have the wind and current pushing them home. Heading off into the unknown and knowing that you may struggle to get home would not be a comfortable feeling.

The ocean off South America is also significantly colder than the waters where the Polynesians normally voyaged, which would be a major issue for an outrigger. Even wearing modern clothing, a boat like a small racing catamaran is significantly colder than a monohull sailing dinghy of equivalent size. Exposure could be a very real danger.
Could sails fix the problem? From what I have heard and read on Wikipedia about Pre Colombian South American rafts, it seems like the rafts used sails, which did pretty well.
 
Could sails fix the problem? From what I have heard and read on Wikipedia about Pre Colombian South American rafts, it seems like the rafts used sails, which did pretty well.
IIRC correctly, by waiting for seasonal shifts in wind sail boats could in theory travel pretty efficiently between south and meso America. More efficiently if they were catamarans rather than the rafts of otl.

According to the paper I read, the downside of this way of travel is you’re stuck for several months at a time at your destination until the winds change back and you can go home. However, that way of sailing seems to have worked pretty well for Indian Ocean trade to East Africa, so I don’t see why it wouldn’t work for the Americas.
 
IIRC correctly, by waiting for seasonal shifts in wind sail boats could in theory travel pretty efficiently between south and meso America. More efficiently if they were catamarans rather than the rafts of otl.

According to the paper I read, the downside of this way of travel is you’re stuck for several months at a time at your destination until the winds change back and you can go home. However, that way of sailing seems to have worked pretty well for Indian Ocean trade to East Africa, so I don’t see why it wouldn’t work for the Americas.
Given that there was trade between the Andean and Mesoamerican world starting from 800 AD and that the way of sailing described by you allowed Arabic/Persian male sailors to form Swahili trading cities along the coasts of Kenya Tanzania and Mozambique, is it possible that trading cities alongside the coasts of Central and South America will form? I am pretty sure that will happen, but there is the question of what foods and technologies are going to be traded in these trade cities. I know that metallurgy and Mesoamerican writing will spread to Mesoamerica and the Andean world respectively, but do you have any other idea what foods or technologies could be traded?
 
Sails don't really fix the problem, but without them you don't get very far.

Studies that shows that the Polynesian outriggers, while very fast on a reach in strong winds, only made about 1.2 to 2 knots directly upwind (ie after allowance is made for their low tacking angles) on average. They could only sail about 75 degrees off the wind. When you are going to have significant delays in getting back it may make one wary of setting out into the void. Most voyages of exploration seem to have been much shorter or much closer to shore than would be required to set out from South America to Polynesia. The exception was with the later European ships but they were vastly larger so could carry much more in the way of provisions, water, stores, spares and shelter.

I just read a recent account of a canoe trip around Suva and even in that warm area, the crew got cold.

IIRC correctly, by waiting for seasonal shifts in wind sail boats could in theory travel pretty efficiently between south and meso America. More efficiently if they were catamarans rather than the rafts of otl.

According to the paper I read, the downside of this way of travel is you’re stuck for several months at a time at your destination until the winds change back and you can go home. However, that way of sailing seems to have worked pretty well for Indian Ocean trade to East Africa, so I don’t see why it wouldn’t work for the Americas.

The eastern part of the South Pacific doesn't have the seasonal change in tradewinds that the Indian Ocean and other areas have. From South America you'll apparently get variable winds for a few hundred miles off the coast. Further out, around the equator the winds are light and variable (an area of doldrums). Further south there's the fairly constant south-east tradewinds. Further south again is the Southern Subtropical Divergence Zone, which has variable but light-to-moderate winds.

It's quite different from the areas with reliable seasonal shifts in wind direction.
 
Sails don't really fix the problem, but without them you don't get very far.

Studies that shows that the Polynesian outriggers, while very fast on a reach in strong winds, only made about 1.2 to 2 knots directly upwind (ie after allowance is made for their low tacking angles) on average. They could only sail about 75 degrees off the wind. When you are going to have significant delays in getting back it may make one wary of setting out into the void. Most voyages of exploration seem to have been much shorter or much closer to shore than would be required to set out from South America to Polynesia. The exception was with the later European ships but they were vastly larger so could carry much more in the way of provisions, water, stores, spares and shelter.

I just read a recent account of a canoe trip around Suva and even in that warm area, the crew got cold.



The eastern part of the South Pacific doesn't have the seasonal change in tradewinds that the Indian Ocean and other areas have. From South America you'll apparently get variable winds for a few hundred miles off the coast. Further out, around the equator the winds are light and variable (an area of doldrums). Further south there's the fairly constant south-east tradewinds. Further south again is the Southern Subtropical Divergence Zone, which has variable but light-to-moderate winds.

It's quite different from the areas with reliable seasonal shifts in wind direction.
So, the best way for Native Americans on the costal side of South America and Central America is to stick to the coast? That seems like a good way to boost trade and technological advancement, to be honest. I can easily see prosperous trading cities popping up along costal South America and Central America, maybe as far away as West Mexico.
 
The big problem is that coastal South America is desert, which is going to make boats more expensive to build and slow down innovation. I would definitely not call Pacific South Americans the most advanced, since they failed to settle many offshore islands i.e. Galapagos. Now, granted, the Taino you might have a case for given the achievements of their ancestors conquered the Caribbean.

That said, the main appeal would be quicker and better trade with Mesoamerica. It was a long voyage and South American rafts were slow. This would help the economy of both areas and broaden horizons. But I feel the Maya (or another coastal group like the Epiclassic/Postclassic Olmecs or Totonacs) would be the ones to truly develop seafaring into an art since the Caribbean has more predictable weather, better ports, and like the Pacific has large pre-existing coastal trade networks that stretched from southern Texas to Venezuela.

It would definitely boost the economies of all the coastal states of the Pacific like the Mantenos, Purepecha, and Chimu. And let's not leave out Central America, since already that was an important place for importing gold into Mesoamerica. So I think you'd see the Aztecs shut out from the Pacific entirely and the Inca locked in the Andes. At the same time, the coastal states would better incorporate the highlands into their economies since a lot of goods that might sell in Mesoamerica are those from highland states i.e. llama/alpaca textiles or for that matter, live alpacas or llamas as exotic animals (all it takes is one rich elite of a coastal Mesoamerican state to set up a breeding operation).
Okay, so the distances may be a little implausible, but it should be possible for the alt Incas in this scenario to discover French Polynesian and Rapa Nui/Easter Island. In OTL, there are theories that the Incas did reach those islands, and with the invention of the outrigger in this scenario, it should be way easier for the Incas to discover those islands. Of course, that would beg the question: what would happen if the alt Incas did discover those islands?
I don't think they'd amount to much. They're not large islands and have no interesting commodities. At most they might be minor trade centers between Polynesians and Andeans. Nor would Galapagos for that matter. It's a bunch of desert islands with very little water on the way to nowhere. The population would be at real risk of dying of thirst during droughts since there's little fresh water and they'd have to build their own water infrastructure.
IIRC correctly, by waiting for seasonal shifts in wind sail boats could in theory travel pretty efficiently between south and meso America. More efficiently if they were catamarans rather than the rafts of otl.

According to the paper I read, the downside of this way of travel is you’re stuck for several months at a time at your destination until the winds change back and you can go home. However, that way of sailing seems to have worked pretty well for Indian Ocean trade to East Africa, so I don’t see why it wouldn’t work for the Americas.
Merchants spending extensive periods of time waiting for the winds to shift might explain why South American metallurgy and some cultural styles were adopted in Pacific Mesoamerica.
So, the best way for Native Americans on the costal side of South America and Central America is to stick to the coast? That seems like a good way to boost trade and technological advancement, to be honest. I can easily see prosperous trading cities popping up along costal South America and Central America, maybe as far away as West Mexico.
They did OTL i.e. the Mantenos or several city states on the Pacific Coast in Mesoamerica, but that was mostly built on more local coastal trade since trade between South America and Mesoamerica was rare. For instance, the city-state of Zacatula (near modern Lazaro Cardenas) was quite wealthy, traded with cities hundreds of kilometers further up or down the coast (i.e. the cities of Aztatlan in modern Nayarit, and Sinaloa), and was thus subjugated to the Purepecha as a crucial city (albeit not without opposition since the Aztecs, other Nahua states, and IIRC elements of Zacatula's own elite often tried to undermine them there). There were a few city-states like this on Mexico's Pacific coast and several smaller towns which were local trading centers.
 
I see a problem of incentive.
Your people's remembered history has echoes of having come by land from somewhere to the north, or the northwest. Some people may still have legends of walking over ice in nearly forgotten times.

It barely matters what people you choose on the West coast of the Americas (south of Vancouver Island, anyway): no one has any story or history of people travelling across ocean without known land nearby.

To change that, flip around the genesis of the idea. Instead of land people deciding to kill themselves venture forth into the unknown, have the unknown come to them. Crash a Polynesian boat (or Chinese?) onto the shore somewhere where the construction and math and astronomy skills are relatively good. This can even be without survivors on board.

Now you have a coastal people looking out over the ocean differently:
  • is this or that god telling them something?
  • where did this come from?
  • can we make something like this and use it?
A people discover a slice of the world's diversity in an unexpected way. How does it change how they apply themselves?
 
The big problem is that coastal South America is desert, which is going to make boats more expensive to build and slow down innovation. I would definitely not call Pacific South Americans the most advanced, since they failed to settle many offshore islands i.e. Galapagos. Now, granted, the Taino you might have a case for given the achievements of their ancestors conquered the Caribbean.

That said, the main appeal would be quicker and better trade with Mesoamerica. It was a long voyage and South American rafts were slow. This would help the economy of both areas and broaden horizons. But I feel the Maya (or another coastal group like the Epiclassic/Postclassic Olmecs or Totonacs) would be the ones to truly develop seafaring into an art since the Caribbean has more predictable weather, better ports, and like the Pacific has large pre-existing coastal trade networks that stretched from southern Texas to Venezuela.

It would definitely boost the economies of all the coastal states of the Pacific like the Mantenos, Purepecha, and Chimu. And let's not leave out Central America, since already that was an important place for importing gold into Mesoamerica. So I think you'd see the Aztecs shut out from the Pacific entirely and the Inca locked in the Andes. At the same time, the coastal states would better incorporate the highlands into their economies since a lot of goods that might sell in Mesoamerica are those from highland states i.e. llama/alpaca textiles or for that matter, live alpacas or llamas as exotic animals (all it takes is one rich elite of a coastal Mesoamerican state to set up a breeding operation).

I don't think they'd amount to much. They're not large islands and have no interesting commodities. At most they might be minor trade centers between Polynesians and Andeans. Nor would Galapagos for that matter. It's a bunch of desert islands with very little water on the way to nowhere. The population would be at real risk of dying of thirst during droughts since there's little fresh water and they'd have to build their own water infrastructure.

Merchants spending extensive periods of time waiting for the winds to shift might explain why South American metallurgy and some cultural styles were adopted in Pacific Mesoamerica.

They did OTL i.e. the Mantenos or several city states on the Pacific Coast in Mesoamerica, but that was mostly built on more local coastal trade since trade between South America and Mesoamerica was rare. For instance, the city-state of Zacatula (near modern Lazaro Cardenas) was quite wealthy, traded with cities hundreds of kilometers further up or down the coast (i.e. the cities of Aztatlan in modern Nayarit, and Sinaloa), and was thus subjugated to the Purepecha as a crucial city (albeit not without opposition since the Aztecs, other Nahua states, and IIRC elements of Zacatula's own elite often tried to undermine them there). There were a few city-states like this on Mexico's Pacific coast and several smaller towns which were local trading centers.
So there would be bigger and more prosperous city states, is what you are saying. Also I do not see why the Aztec and Inca empires would be locked out from the Pacific trade routes. Also, is it possible that the Maya Collapse could be undermined? Given that Andean and Mesoamerican trade started at 800 AD and the Mayan Collapse at 800 AD, it is possible that trade with the southern Pacific Mayan city states will help rejuvenate them and maybe even the Northern Mayan city states as the outrigger design passes from city to city. Plus, writing from southern Pacific Mayan states and Northern Mayan Caribbean States could spread along the coast into various other cultures, as I think mercantile stages such as the Matenos of Ecuador, South America, would find it very useful and handy.
 
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