Habsburgs don't inherit Bohemia and Hungary - what happens next?

SavoyTruffle

SavoyTruffle

So basically, IOTL the Habsburgs rolled natural 20s on most of their marriage alliances in the early 16th century - the Catholic Monarchs didn't have a surviving son to succeed them, and the line was passed through Juana rather than her elder siblings who predeceased their parents and left no surviving issue. Then on top of that Louis II, last of the Bohemian branch of the Jagiellons, got himself killed at Mohacs, allowing Charles V's brother Ferdinand to step in and claim Bohemia and Hungary based on being the husband of Louis' sister.

So let's say Louis II doesn't get himself killed, or at the very least gets his wife Mary with a son. How does this affect the Habsburg outlook going forward?
 

Zygmunt Stary

Munrojock2 said:
eventual polish-lithuanian-bohemian commonwealth?
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Not the commonwealth, but yeah if Sigismund II Augustus doesn't have issue, Poland, Lithuania, Bohemia and Hungary would be united under one king. Polish will be closer ITTL to Czech and Slovak since Czechs would retain their independence and with PU, Czechophile tendency among Polish elites (which was already present in XVIth century) would be stronger (Polish adopted a lot of Czech words back then).
 

Simreeve

They still have to worry about the Ottomans attacking Austria, so they can't jst concentrate their efforts
Zygmunt Stary said:
Not the commonwealth, but yeah if Sigismund II Augustus doesn't have issue, Poland, Lithuania, Bohemia and Hungary would be united under one king. Polish will be closer ITTL to Czech and Slovak since Czechs would retain their independence and with PU, Czechophile tendency among Polish elites (which was already present in XVIth century) would be stronger (Polish adopted a lot of Czech words back then).
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One or both of them had already been held in personal union with Poland-Lithuania at least once before this, anyway, but then they elected separate kings... so the union might not last this time, either.
 

Zygmunt Stary

Simreeve said:
One or both of them had already been held in personal union with Poland-Lithuania at least once before this, anyway, but then they elected separate kings... so the union might not last this time, either.
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Yeah, but that was under different circumstances, which are basically unappliable in ATL 1572.
 

Simreeve

Zygmunt Stary said:
Yeah, but that was under different circumstances, which are basically unappliable in ATL 1572.
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Bohemia also managed to elect a non-Hapsburg king IOTL once after this, too, Elector: Elector Ferdinand V of the Palatinate, in 1619.
Admittedly that election triggered what became the Thirty Years War, and the Hapsburgs managed to expel him from the kingdom very quickly, but in the 1570s their Austrian branch might not be as strong as it was by then... especially if, for example, their rival then is also already King of Poland-Lithuania...
 

Zygmunt Stary

Simreeve said:
Bohemia also managed to elect a non-Hapsburg king IOTL once after this, too, Elector: Elector Ferdinand V of the Palatinate, in 1619.
Admittedly that election triggered what became the Thirty Years War, and the Hapsburgs managed to expel him from the kingdom very quickly, but in the 1570s their Austrian branch might not be as strong as it was by then... especially if, for example, their rival then is also already King of Poland-Lithuania...
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But Jagiellon King of Bohemia-Hungary would be the one gaining Poland-Lithuania and IMHO continuing union would be in interests of most of elites of the countries involved.
 

raharris1973

SavoyTruffle said:
So basically, IOTL the Habsburgs rolled natural 20s on most of their marriage alliances in the early 16th century - the Catholic Monarchs didn't have a surviving son to succeed them, and the line was passed through Juana rather than her elder siblings who predeceased their parents and left no surviving issue. Then on top of that Louis II, last of the Bohemian branch of the Jagiellons, got himself killed at Mohacs, allowing Charles V's brother Ferdinand to step in and claim Bohemia and Hungary based on being the husband of Louis' sister.

So let's say Louis II doesn't get himself killed, or at the very least gets his wife Mary with a son. How does this affect the Habsburg outlook going forward?
Click to expand...
There's what happens to the Habsburg, and then there's what happens the Hungarian-Bohemian personal union under the Hungarian branch of the Jagiellons.

Can the the Hungarians hold out in a combination of most or part of their country, plus Bohemia, or will the Ottomans conquer/vassalize all of Hungary?

Will we see an Ottoman siege, or conquest, of Prague, instead of one of Vienna, due to the Ottomans pursuing Jagiellonian forces rather than Habsburg ones?

Without merging with the Habsburg, will the Hungarians ever regain everything they ever may lose from the Turks, like Croatia, southeastern Hungary, Banat, Transylvania, back from the Turks?

Back in the Hungary-Bohemia-less Habsburg lands, does the lack of Hungary and Bohemia in his domains relieve Charles the V of enough of a burden that he chooses not to retire, or not to split his lands, keeping Habsburg lands of Spain and Austria undivided?

Or does he split them? If he does split them, either at his retirement like OTL, or at his death, does he apportion anything else (likely in the HRE) to Ferdinand rather than Philipp, since Ferdinand does not possess title to Bohemia and Hungary?

With Hungary and Bohemia remaining Jagiellonian and not Habsburg, is the Counter-Reformation any less intensely successful there, and does Protestantism remain stronger?

How are wars of religion changed in the absence of a Habsburg Bohemia?
 

isabella

raharris1973 said:
Back in the Hungary-Bohemia-less Habsburg lands, does the lack of Hungary and Bohemia in his domains relieve Charles the V of enough of a burden that he chooses not to retire, or not to split his lands, keeping Habsburg lands of Spain and Austria undivided?
Or does he split them? If he does split them, either at his retirement like OTL, or at his death, does he apportion anything else (likely in the HRE) to Ferdinand rather than Philipp, since Ferdinand does not possess title to Bohemia and Hungary?
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Charles V had NEVER Bohemia and Hungary in his domains. They belonged to his brother and Austria was given to Ferdinand as his own domain since 1521 (at the time of Ferdinand and Anna’s wedding). The Prince Electors would NEVER vote Philip of their own will and have all the interests in pushing for Ferdinand’s election as King of the Romans at the OTL time so I can not see big changes here.
If anything Ferdinand do not inheriting Bohemia and Hungary made likelier (if both Charles and Ferdinand have the OTL children) to have Netherlands given as dowry to Maria
 

Zygmunt Stary

isabella said:
Charles V had NEVER Bohemia and Hungary in his domains. They belonged to his brother and Austria was given to Ferdinand as his own domain since 1521 (at the time of Ferdinand and Anna’s wedding). The Prince Electors would NEVER vote Philip of their own will and have all the interests in pushing for Ferdinand’s election as King of the Romans at the OTL time so I can not see big changes here.
If anything Ferdinand do not inheriting Bohemia and Hungary made likelier (if both Charles and Ferdinand have the OTL children) to have Netherlands given as dowry to Maria
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I don't think Charles would give up Netherlands like that, he wanted Philip to be made HRE, I agree with you that he still won't succeed, but still he has no reason to give his lands to his brother's children.
Maybe Wurtemberg won't be given back to it's rulers and actually attached to Austria?
 

isabella

Zygmunt Stary said:
I don't think Charles would give up Netherlands like that, he wanted Philip to be made HRE, I agree with you that he still won't succeed, but still he has no reason to give his lands to his brother's children.
Maybe Wurtemberg won't be given back to it's rulers and actually attached to Austria?
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Charles V wanted keep Burgundy separated from Spain and was long undecided if giving that to Maria (was also offered as her dowry to Charles d‘Orléans) and Philip (who was not much interested in them). Plus that would NOT be a situation in which Charles gave “his lands to his brother’s children“ as the Netherlands would still belong to Charles‘ own descendants from his eldest daughter.
Philip got the Netherlands as dowry for his wedding to Mary I of England (with the provision who they would be inherited by Philip and Mary’s heirs meaning who they would not be held together with Spain)
 

Zygmunt Stary

isabella said:
Charles V wanted keep Burgundy separated from Spain and was long undecided if giving that to Maria (was also offered as her dowry to Charles d‘Orléans) and Philip (who was not much interested in them). Plus that would NOT be a situation in which Charles gave “his lands to his brother’s children“ as the Netherlands would still belong to Charles‘ own descendants from his eldest daughter.
Philip got the Netherlands as dowry for his wedding to Mary I of England (with the provision who they would be inherited by Philip and Mary’s heirs meaning who they would not be held together with Spain)
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Well, still I don't think wedding between Philip and Mary I would be butterflied here and Charles won't treat his descendants from eldest daughter as equals to his descendants from his son.
 
ordinarylittleme

ordinarylittleme

Zygmunt Stary said:
I don't think Charles would give up Netherlands like that, he wanted Philip to be made HRE, I agree with you that he still won't succeed, but still he has no reason to give his lands to his brother's children.
Maybe Wurtemberg won't be given back to it's rulers and actually attached to Austria?
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He wanted Philip to be HRE? Despite knowing what a big pain in the ass it was to be both HRE and king of Spain?
 

Kellan Sullivan

1-800-wandsthetic said:
He wanted Philip to be HRE? Despite knowing what a big pain in the ass it was to be both HRE and king of Spain?
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IIRC, the plan was something along the lines of Karl V, then Ferdinand, then Felipe gets elected as Ferdinand's successor, then Maximilian II (or his son) is elected as successor to Felipe. It was a crazy mixed up scheme and Karl wanted Ferdinand to name Felipe as "imperial vicar in Italy" (the title held by the duke of Milan) in order so his son would still have a "position" in imperial politics (apparently merely duke of Brabant and Milan didn't count). Anyhow, Ferdinand dithered until Karl had abdicated (not sure why Karl never created Felipe this during his reign), then promptly enfeoffed the duke of Savoy as imperial vicar. Karl and Felipe were both pissed about it but couldn't do anything
 
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