But does British balancing toward France and against Spain-Austria extend so far as supporting French takeover of the Spanish Habsburg Netherlands? It's theoretical balance on a Europe-wide basis but consolidates more of the area right around the channel and Antwerp in the hands of a single power, which would seem undesirable.Wouldn't this alternate Spain be extremely weak? Without the reforms of nueva planta, centralization, military reforms, and without getting rid of corrupt government officials, replacing them with ministers of foreign origin; I think Spain would be in a really bad situation, if you add that to the fact that Charles won't be liked in Castille, and that his support mainly comes from Aragon, then the situation looks incredibly bad for Spain, even worse if he becomes HRE.
France is actually stronger than in real life in the short term, since their ties with Spain quickly broke after the dead of Louis XIV, and wouldn't be repaired until the War of Polish Succession. Britain will prefer to side with France more than with the Habsburg block, even more with the Régence. Things look pretty good for France, up to the Polish Succession, which might become a much more important war in this scenario, being the first time that France might confront the two Habsburg powers, I would bet on France.
I see Britain aligning with France like in the Régence period, but not to that extent. I see France expanding in Luxembourg and Lorraine, while getting the Tuscan succession, that instead of pushing for the Netherlands threatening British interests.But does British balancing toward France and against Spain-Austria extend so far as supporting French takeover of the Spanish Habsburg Netherlands? It's theoretical balance on a Europe-wide basis but consolidates more of the area right around the channel and Antwerp in the hands of a single power, which would seem undesirable.
Wouldn't this alternate Spain be extremely weak? Without the reforms of nueva planta, centralization, military reforms, and without getting rid of corrupt government officials, replacing them with ministers of foreign origin; I think Spain would be in a really bad situation, if you add that to the fact that Charles won't be liked in Castille, and that his support mainly comes from Aragon, then the situation looks incredibly bad for Spain, even worse if he becomes HRE.
France is actually stronger than in real life in the short term, since their ties with Spain quickly broke after the dead of Louis XIV, and wouldn't be repaired until the War of Polish Succession. Britain will prefer to side with France more than with the Habsburg block, even more with the Régence. Things look pretty good for France, up to the Polish Succession, which might become a much more important war in this scenario, being the first time that France might confront the two Habsburg powers, I would bet on France.
I meant a not so collaborative alliance like their OTL 1716 alliance, to buy British neutrality, I agree with Europe being in a partial peace until the Polish Succession. I don't see Britain in a coalition against France during this war, since they didn't join even when Spain sided with the French, because they recognised Stanyslaw as the rightful king of Poland. And during the war France was pragmatic enough to not attack the Austrian Netherlands, so Britain wouldn't join. In real life Savoy joined the French side in hopes to get Milan, maybe they will join against France. I'd say France has a fairly easy time, securing Northern Italy during this war.I agree Spain is weaker without the reforms. And Charles won't implement any of his own. At the same time if Spain retains the Spanish Netherlands that's a going to be both a potential drain on resources or at least a distraction. But I'm not sure that Britain would be interested in siding with the French. If we assume a similar succession and regency in France there may be a similar falling out with Philip in Naples as there was IOTL. But Philip would not be fighting any kind of war to retake Spain as the idea of conquering Spain from Naples is just not tenable. So I think there may be prolonged period of peace in Europe from the end of the War of the Spanish Succession until the late 1720s. A quiet decade (other than in the Balkans where Austria probably ends up fighting the Ottomans again). Thus I don't think Britain would be choosing France over Spain or Austria so much as all the powers would just be temporarily at peace.
After that things do look good for France as it would have a near lock on Italy once it reconciles with the Neapolitan (Angevin?) Bourbons. But the problem with a war against Austria and Spain is that with Italy not really a battleground the French would either have to focus solely on southern Austria (a Franco-Neapolitan army attacks Austria from northern Italy) or northern Spain (a French invasion of Catalonia or Guipuzcoa) if they want to try and keep the British and Dutch out of the war. But France's real interest would be in taking the Spanish Netherlands. They're not going to gain any territory in Austria and I think the idea of annexing Catalonia or Guipuzcoa is fanciful at this point. So that suggests that war with Britain is inevitable. If the French attack the Spanish Netherlands that probably pushes Britain and the Dutch into war or if the French try march across southern Germany to attack Austria that probably ends any hope the French have of getting the German states to remain neutral. There was a reason why most the fighting in the OTL War of the Polish Succession was fought in Italy. And once the war widens I think Savoy would be more likely to go over to the the side of Austria, Spain and Britain than France.
So that's a reasonable coalition against the Bourbons. Weak Spain + OTL Austria + Britain + Dutch + Savoy vs France + Stronger Bourbon Naples. That's almost like the War of Spanish Succession redux.