Consequences of a Habsburg Spain after the war of spanish succession but which loses its Italian possessions?

[Math]

Well what would be the plausible consequences and butterflies of a timeline where the Habsburgs keep Spain, but lose Milan, Sicily, Naples to France in the spanish succession war?

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

@unprincipled peter @Vladivostock @Archduke @Vitruvius @Nuraghe @isabella

 

[Vitruvius]

Depends on the circumstances. Is Spain united in personal union with Austria (ie Charles remains King of Spain and then becomes HRE, King of Hungary etc)? How quickly/easily does Charles come to power in Spain (ie is there still a Bourbon interlude in which reforms are introduced by Philip)? What kind of concessions are made to Britain (ie does Britain still get bits of Spain; Gibraltar/Menorca, trade concessions/asiento)? Does Spain retain the Spanish Netherlands? What is the fate of Milan (to a Bourbon or to the Duke of Lorraine)? What does the French succession look like (do the Dauphin and his son still die before Louis XIV)? There's a lot of scenarios which you can conceive of for a Habsburg Spain under different circumstances.

I think its easier to imagine the Habsburgs retaining Spain in a scenario where Joseph has a male heir and Charles stays in Spain. So if we go with that then Spain is independent but shorn of all its territories in Italy. The OP suggests that Spain retains the Spanish Netherlands but it would likely only be as an Anglo-Dutch protectorate (Border fortresses garrisoned by the Dutch). Charles has little enthusiasm for reform and an unhealthy obsession with the traditions of the Spanish court. So while he may retain some reforms he inherits from Philip they won't be expanded. The privileges and autonomy of Aragon, Catalonia etc as separate Kingdoms would be preserved, probably to the detriment of Spain/Spanish power.

In terms of diplomacy the family alliance between the Austrian and Spanish Habsburgs is probably maintained. I don't think that Charles would launch a war to reconquer Italy however so no equivalent to the War of the Quadruple Alliance. Which is good for Austria as they can focus on the east for a little while. In the short term if there is still an equivalent French succession to OTL (ie underage Louis XV succeeding Louis XIV with an Orleans regency) then rift between the Neapolitan Bourbons and the French could also keep things peaceful for a while. But at some point the French are going to want the Spanish Netherlands and they are well positioned to use control of Italy to cut Spain from Austria so coordination between the two against France could be hard. But if the Bourbons are in Italy I think that might push Savoy away from France as Savoy would probably fear Bourbon encirclement. And its easy for the Habsburgs to promise Savoy a slice of Bourbon Italy in exchange for coming on side.

I think this could help Austria in a way. Unlike the OTL War of Polish Succession where the Bourbons kept Britain out by restricting the war largely Italy here in the next war the primary area the French would target would be the Spanish Netherlands since the Bourbons already control Spanish Italy. So that would almost certainly bring the British into the war. So that could keep the alliance system fairly static the Bourbons in France and Italy on one side, maybe with a couple German princes and the Habsburgs and Britain on the other.

 

[Atrahasis]

Wouldn't this alternate Spain be extremely weak? Without the reforms of nueva planta, centralization, military reforms, and without getting rid of corrupt government officials, replacing them with ministers of foreign origin; I think Spain would be in a really bad situation, if you add that to the fact that Charles won't be liked in Castille, and that his support mainly comes from Aragon, then the situation looks incredibly bad for Spain, even worse if he becomes HRE.

France is actually stronger than in real life in the short term, since their ties with Spain quickly broke after the dead of Louis XIV, and wouldn't be repaired until the War of Polish Succession. Britain will prefer to side with France more than with the Habsburg block, even more with the Régence. Things look pretty good for France, up to the Polish Succession, which might become a much more important war in this scenario, being the first time that France might confront the two Habsburg powers, I would bet on France.

 

[raharris1973]

Wouldn't this alternate Spain be extremely weak? Without the reforms of nueva planta, centralization, military reforms, and without getting rid of corrupt government officials, replacing them with ministers of foreign origin; I think Spain would be in a really bad situation, if you add that to the fact that Charles won't be liked in Castille, and that his support mainly comes from Aragon, then the situation looks incredibly bad for Spain, even worse if he becomes HRE.

France is actually stronger than in real life in the short term, since their ties with Spain quickly broke after the dead of Louis XIV, and wouldn't be repaired until the War of Polish Succession. Britain will prefer to side with France more than with the Habsburg block, even more with the Régence. Things look pretty good for France, up to the Polish Succession, which might become a much more important war in this scenario, being the first time that France might confront the two Habsburg powers, I would bet on France.

But does British balancing toward France and against Spain-Austria extend so far as supporting French takeover of the Spanish Habsburg Netherlands? It's theoretical balance on a Europe-wide basis but consolidates more of the area right around the channel and Antwerp in the hands of a single power, which would seem undesirable.

 

[Atrahasis]

But does British balancing toward France and against Spain-Austria extend so far as supporting French takeover of the Spanish Habsburg Netherlands? It's theoretical balance on a Europe-wide basis but consolidates more of the area right around the channel and Antwerp in the hands of a single power, which would seem undesirable.

I see Britain aligning with France like in the Régence period, but not to that extent. I see France expanding in Luxembourg and Lorraine, while getting the Tuscan succession, that instead of pushing for the Netherlands threatening British interests.

That until tha War of Austrian Succession; this is a big if, but if Charles becomes HRE and ends in a similar situation to real life, then the Habsburgs are in the worst position possible. If I'm not wrong Aragon follows the Salic Law, this is literally the worst that could ever happen to Charles, since they are the biggest Habsburg supporters in Spain. With Italy under effective French control, Vienna is effectively encircled; there's no worse case for Austria, Spain in a civil war where there is little support for the Habsburgs and Vienna is encircled.

 

[Vitruvius]

Wouldn't this alternate Spain be extremely weak? Without the reforms of nueva planta, centralization, military reforms, and without getting rid of corrupt government officials, replacing them with ministers of foreign origin; I think Spain would be in a really bad situation, if you add that to the fact that Charles won't be liked in Castille, and that his support mainly comes from Aragon, then the situation looks incredibly bad for Spain, even worse if he becomes HRE.

France is actually stronger than in real life in the short term, since their ties with Spain quickly broke after the dead of Louis XIV, and wouldn't be repaired until the War of Polish Succession. Britain will prefer to side with France more than with the Habsburg block, even more with the Régence. Things look pretty good for France, up to the Polish Succession, which might become a much more important war in this scenario, being the first time that France might confront the two Habsburg powers, I would bet on France.

I agree Spain is weaker without the reforms. And Charles won't implement any of his own. At the same time if Spain retains the Spanish Netherlands that's a going to be both a potential drain on resources or at least a distraction. But I'm not sure that Britain would be interested in siding with the French. If we assume a similar succession and regency in France there may be a similar falling out with Philip in Naples as there was IOTL. But Philip would not be fighting any kind of war to retake Spain as the idea of conquering Spain from Naples is just not tenable. So I think there may be prolonged period of peace in Europe from the end of the War of the Spanish Succession until the late 1720s. A quiet decade (other than in the Balkans where Austria probably ends up fighting the Ottomans again). Thus I don't think Britain would be choosing France over Spain or Austria so much as all the powers would just be temporarily at peace.

After that things do look good for France as it would have a near lock on Italy once it reconciles with the Neapolitan (Angevin?) Bourbons. But the problem with a war against Austria and Spain is that with Italy not really a battleground the French would either have to focus solely on southern Austria (a Franco-Neapolitan army attacks Austria from northern Italy) or northern Spain (a French invasion of Catalonia or Guipuzcoa) if they want to try and keep the British and Dutch out of the war. But France's real interest would be in taking the Spanish Netherlands. They're not going to gain any territory in Austria and I think the idea of annexing Catalonia or Guipuzcoa is fanciful at this point. So that suggests that war with Britain is inevitable. If the French attack the Spanish Netherlands that probably pushes Britain and the Dutch into war or if the French try march across southern Germany to attack Austria that probably ends any hope the French have of getting the German states to remain neutral. There was a reason why most the fighting in the OTL War of the Polish Succession was fought in Italy. And once the war widens I think Savoy would be more likely to go over to the the side of Austria, Spain and Britain than France.

So that's a reasonable coalition against the Bourbons. Weak Spain + OTL Austria + Britain + Dutch + Savoy vs France + Stronger Bourbon Naples. That's almost like the War of Spanish Succession redux.

 

[Atrahasis]

I agree Spain is weaker without the reforms. And Charles won't implement any of his own. At the same time if Spain retains the Spanish Netherlands that's a going to be both a potential drain on resources or at least a distraction. But I'm not sure that Britain would be interested in siding with the French. If we assume a similar succession and regency in France there may be a similar falling out with Philip in Naples as there was IOTL. But Philip would not be fighting any kind of war to retake Spain as the idea of conquering Spain from Naples is just not tenable. So I think there may be prolonged period of peace in Europe from the end of the War of the Spanish Succession until the late 1720s. A quiet decade (other than in the Balkans where Austria probably ends up fighting the Ottomans again). Thus I don't think Britain would be choosing France over Spain or Austria so much as all the powers would just be temporarily at peace.

After that things do look good for France as it would have a near lock on Italy once it reconciles with the Neapolitan (Angevin?) Bourbons. But the problem with a war against Austria and Spain is that with Italy not really a battleground the French would either have to focus solely on southern Austria (a Franco-Neapolitan army attacks Austria from northern Italy) or northern Spain (a French invasion of Catalonia or Guipuzcoa) if they want to try and keep the British and Dutch out of the war. But France's real interest would be in taking the Spanish Netherlands. They're not going to gain any territory in Austria and I think the idea of annexing Catalonia or Guipuzcoa is fanciful at this point. So that suggests that war with Britain is inevitable. If the French attack the Spanish Netherlands that probably pushes Britain and the Dutch into war or if the French try march across southern Germany to attack Austria that probably ends any hope the French have of getting the German states to remain neutral. There was a reason why most the fighting in the OTL War of the Polish Succession was fought in Italy. And once the war widens I think Savoy would be more likely to go over to the the side of Austria, Spain and Britain than France.

So that's a reasonable coalition against the Bourbons. Weak Spain + OTL Austria + Britain + Dutch + Savoy vs France + Stronger Bourbon Naples. That's almost like the War of Spanish Succession redux.

I meant a not so collaborative alliance like their OTL 1716 alliance, to buy British neutrality, I agree with Europe being in a partial peace until the Polish Succession. I don't see Britain in a coalition against France during this war, since they didn't join even when Spain sided with the French, because they recognised Stanyslaw as the rightful king of Poland. And during the war France was pragmatic enough to not attack the Austrian Netherlands, so Britain wouldn't join. In real life Savoy joined the French side in hopes to get Milan, maybe they will join against France. I'd say France has a fairly easy time, securing Northern Italy during this war.

The big war will be the Austrian succession, maybe the second Spanish succession, or the Habsburg succession in general; where Britain will actually support Austria, and Spain will be in a civil if Charles was king, since Aragon does not allow women to inherit the throne, and Aragon was the power base of the Habsburgs. How this war might turn out is really interesting.

 

[unprincipled peter]

The first order of business is defining what happens to Joseph, HRE. There isn't a chance in Hades that France (and probably Britain) allow any sort of union between Spain and Austria/HRE. So, if he dies as OTL, presumably after the shorter WoSS, or partition, but with Charles still having no offspring, Europe is at war again circa 1712 if Charles tries to have both. If Joseph lives on for a while, say a decade or two, Austria is probably better off than under Charles. In Spain, Charles has opportunity to pump out an heir. Being in completely different countries, the slate on offspring is completely different. Charles could leave Spain to an heir (doesn't have to be male), and go to take over Austria, or he could send a son if Charles prefers to stay in Spain. But Charles will not get both.

Charles' OTL death may very well be butterflied, especially if the mushroom poisoning was accidental. If Charles' return to Austria is massively different from OTL, so too will his death.