The Second Intifada was happening in the background - the main differences are an earlier Gaza withdrawal (still under nominal Fatah leadership), and Israel cares less about collateral damage because the eyes of the world are glued to the significantly larger war elsewhere so slightly more Palestinian deaths. The Palestinians are angrier but they're also getting less support with the loss of Syria, Hezbollah and Iran as partners, so it's balancing itself out for now.
Bush vs. The Axis of Evil - TL
The Second Intifada was happening in the background - the main differences are an earlier Gaza withdrawal (still under nominal Fatah leadership), and Israel cares less about collateral damage because the eyes of the world are glued to the significantly larger war elsewhere so slightly more Palestinian deaths. The Palestinians are angrier but they're also getting less support with the loss of Syria, Hezbollah and Iran as partners, so it's balancing itself out for now.
Any plans you have regarding what happens next in that part of the world?
Honestly I'm reluctant to focus much on that part of the world given current emotions, especially given the closeness of the TL to the present day - I don't really have a finalised idea for that part of the world at the moment anyway, but I will still write a summary of any significant changes.
Some TV Tropes that could be added are:
Anti-Climax: The final confrontation between Kim Jon-Ill and Bush ended with the former fleeing to China for asylum. Saving North Korea from destruction, at the cost of letting Kim escape justice and having the country under occupation.
YMMV Complete Monster: Kim Jong Ill was the head of a highly oppressive dictatorship who demanded crippling austerity from his people in a famine while he ate in decadence. During his reign he kidnapped hundreds of foreigners, along with forcing children into the army and/or labor camps. After being upset over the wealth of South Korea during the FIFA World Cup. He broke off the promises he made of reunification, and initiated a war of aggression against his southern neighbor. His army after committing atrocities under his orders, dropped a dirty bomb in Pyongyang after coming close to losing his capital to the invaders. After a stand off that threatened his country with nuclear destruction he ran off to China with his family for asylum. Despite the sheer destruction that he caused, he ultimately showed no remorse for any of his actions and blamed his own people for the war’s conclusion. A personal interview with him lead to a Chinese reporter to consider him neither cowardly nor unintelligent but “pure evil”.
Was It Really Worth It: Many young Americans did not consider the destruction of their international reputation worth toppling three dictatorships. Leading them to ponder on the future of who could possibly fix it.
Anti-Climax: The final confrontation between Kim Jon-Ill and Bush ended with the former fleeing to China for asylum. Saving North Korea from destruction, at the cost of letting Kim escape justice and having the country under occupation.
YMMV Complete Monster: Kim Jong Ill was the head of a highly oppressive dictatorship who demanded crippling austerity from his people in a famine while he ate in decadence. During his reign he kidnapped hundreds of foreigners, along with forcing children into the army and/or labor camps. After being upset over the wealth of South Korea during the FIFA World Cup. He broke off the promises he made of reunification, and initiated a war of aggression against his southern neighbor. His army after committing atrocities under his orders, dropped a dirty bomb in Pyongyang after coming close to losing his capital to the invaders. After a stand off that threatened his country with nuclear destruction he ran off to China with his family for asylum. Despite the sheer destruction that he caused, he ultimately showed no remorse for any of his actions and blamed his own people for the war’s conclusion. A personal interview with him lead to a Chinese reporter to consider him neither cowardly nor unintelligent but “pure evil”.
Was It Really Worth It: Many young Americans did not consider the destruction of their international reputation worth toppling three dictatorships. Leading them to ponder on the future of who could possibly fix it.
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I guess that Sorairo decided not go further than 2012 because he doesn't want go too close with current politics.
Pretty surprising endings these wars. I expected some intervention by China but not exactly that way.
And Iran I expected being more bloody.
Yeah that was very unpredictable and a good way to set it apart from what happened in Death of Russia
Holy Moly! The BVTAOE timeline is in many ways reversed FoM. Hell,Sorairo even included Bella Ciao, the main Anti-Fascist song.
I guess "Marxist Muslims" of the People's Mojahedin Organisation is going to rule Iran after NATO-American occupation, with some parts of Iran being given to Kurds and Balochis (or at very least create significant autonomy for the latter).
Probably Allies try to keep Iran as one nation. They didn't divide Iraq or Afghanistan in OTL so they hardly are doing that ITTL.
They aren't really Islamic, in fact they're particularly secular and have a very bad taste in their mouth from years of theocratic repression.
Of course they won't, but Kurds ITTL are seeking to expand their de-facto independent Iraqi territory eastwards.
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I'm going to be honest there are somethings I just feel are left unresolved:
EDIT: Oh and I expect any insurgencies in Iran to force the country's Jews, Christians, Zoroastrians, Baha'is, and possibly Sunnis to starting bolting like the OTL Assyrians of Iraq.
- Iran: The big elephant in the room. The PMEK is still going to be an enemy of the US. I can't see those women saying they're glad to see the US help defeat the Islamist government. They'll see the US as a problem too. Truth is, I expect the Iranian occupation to cause a lot of trouble for the region down the line.
- Iraq: The US will want to try to get the whole country under control so I expect the war to last way longer too.
- Lebanon: Trade liberalization hasn't had the best record for helping poorer developing nations so I see Lebanon being doubled-screwed.
- North Korea: There's going to be so many questions about how North Korea will be dealt with
- Overall, the instability in the Middle East. I see more than enough insurgencies and revolts down the line. The whole place is heading even deeper into the shitter.
EDIT: Oh and I expect any insurgencies in Iran to force the country's Jews, Christians, Zoroastrians, Baha'is, and possibly Sunnis to starting bolting like the OTL Assyrians of Iraq.
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Obviously. Socialist religious people like Islamic Marxists and Liberation Theologists are by nature way more secular than Far-right ones, so they'll drastically reduce Sharia Law down to Zakat and laws derived from Muhammad's early governance of Medina without restoring theocracy, if not outright abolish it completely.
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Do you plan to have at least minimum internet presence, like how Harry Turtledove is active on Twitter, Instagram, etc.?
North Korea has just begun to recover, whereas the Middle East will eventually be peaceful within next decade or two, especially if Gaddafi survives and/or the possible Arab Spring isn't exploited by Salafists.
I can see Kurdistan turning into an "Israel 2" situation, in which a state immensely hated by its neighbors insists on claiming land that its neighbors had but Kurdistan believe belongs to them, and the only reason no one is crushing it is because the United States protects it.
Neither the Kurds nor the Turks will be happy, and the United States will have to choose between telling the Kurds to go to hell and that they can't continue claiming Turkish land...
...or choose Kurdistan and that pisses Turkey off, because what it will look like is that the United States supports those who want to take clay from Turkey. I also don't see the future government of Iran being happy with the Kurds keeping their land.
This will probably in turn lead the Kurdish government to become increasingly paranoid of non-Kurdish minorities, assuming that they are eager to betray them and return to Turkey or Iran... although I doubt anyone will want to join the chaos that will be Iraq.
Neither the Kurds nor the Turks will be happy, and the United States will have to choose between telling the Kurds to go to hell and that they can't continue claiming Turkish land...
...or choose Kurdistan and that pisses Turkey off, because what it will look like is that the United States supports those who want to take clay from Turkey. I also don't see the future government of Iran being happy with the Kurds keeping their land.
This will probably in turn lead the Kurdish government to become increasingly paranoid of non-Kurdish minorities, assuming that they are eager to betray them and return to Turkey or Iran... although I doubt anyone will want to join the chaos that will be Iraq.
I plan to keep the account so I'll probably answer PMs but I might be late to reply. I don't intend to make any further timelines or threads, however.
All of this feels way too optimistic.
At least the Kurds will actually be able to claim they've maintained a large, continuous presence for centuries unlike Israel.