Brown Gets His Mandate - A British Political Timeline

[8bitninja]

'I Told You So'

Tony Watkins - ConservativeHome - 30 November 2007

I know from personal experience that there were a number of members who thought what I said openly at the time in 2005: "This probably won't end well for us".

Don't get me wrong, Cameron won the leadership by a clear margin and like most who didn't vote for him in the final round I was prepared to give the man some time because of that. But also like most who didn't vote for him in the final round I was less than convinced with the direction he proposed to take the party. Gestures to the Centre (and, dare I say it, the Left) are acceptable if they deliver results, but as has been proven all too painfully Cameron couldn't deliver when it counted. Now we have at least four more years of New Labour to get through and our party is yet again going back to the drawing board, seemingly no closer to winning power than we were in 2005.

I know I'm saying this with the benefit of hindsight, but are we really surprised that we are where we are? Brown clearly knew he was going to call an early election as soon as he became leader and kept that close to his chest until announcing it at the Labour Party conference. The press lapped it up and no matter what clever and attractive policies Cameron and Osborne raised at our own conference the only talk in town was about the election. As usual New Labour played the media masterfully and from that point on we simply didn't get a look-in. Would we have won if Davis were in charge? We can't be sure, but I am certain that we would have gained more than twenty seats with a leader who was unapologetically of the Right and a committed Eurosceptic. Davis would have given voters a clear choice - Cameron tried to be all things to all people and ended up pleasing no-one. Taking seats off the Lib Dems is all well and good, but until we are able to make serious inroads to the regions that went red in 1997 and stayed red, we're going to be nowhere near getting back into Number 10.

So yes, I'm going to say it: I told you so.

Who do I think should take over? As much as I wish he would, I don't think Davis can make another run after losing so clearly last time around. So I'll wait and see who stands up to carry the torch of the Right. If this debacle has shown us anything, it's that the only way that we'll win power again is to be authentically Conservative. Our next leader has to recognise and embrace that fact.

 

[8bitninja]

2007 United Kingdom General Election Results

Select results extracted from bbc.co.uk - Election 2007 section - 23 November 2007

Labour: 345 (-11)
Conservatives: 218 (+20)
Liberal Democrats: 52 (-10)
Democratic Unionist Party: 8 (-1)
Scottish National Party: 6 (no change)
Sinn Fein: 5 (no change)
Plaid Cymru: 4 (+1)
Other: 3 (no change)

 

[8bitninja]

Who's in the running to replace David Cameron as leader of the Conservatives?

BBC UK Politics - 20 December 2007

After losing a fourth election in a row the Conservative Party is once again looking for a new leader after David Cameron was forced out in a vote of no confidence. Several MPs have said they would be interested in running or have already launched their campaigns. Here are a few which we think you should keep an eye on:

Liam Fox
Who? - Shadow Defence Secretary, MP for Woodspring in Somerset.
Pros? - Ran in the 2005 leadership election and finished a close third behind David Davis, winning the votes of MPs on the right of the party. If Davis doesn't run again he might be able to consolidate the support of the Tory right behind him. He's also reasonably young at only 46 and demonstrates the Eurosceptic credentials which will make him popular with the grassroots members who ultimately elect the leader.
Cons? - Not especially well-known by the wider public. His 2005 campaign's focus on marriage and welfare reform may not resonate with liberal swing voters who backed Cameron in this year's general election.

George Osborne
Who? - Shadow Chancellor, MP for Tatton in Cheshire.
Pros? - Much younger than Gordon Brown at just 36. The closest candidate to Cameron ideologically, he will look to win the support of those who backed the former leader's 'modernisation' project. Has some appeal with more socially liberal voters in London and other big cities.
Cons? - Not well-liked within the Conservative Party and seen by many as holding the Shadow Chancellor position simply by virtue of his close relationship with Cameron. Virtually no support on the right or amongst the membership. Not very popular in seats the Tories will need to win back in the Midlands and North of England.

Theresa May
Who? - Shadow Leader of the House of Commons and Shadow Women and Equalities Minister, MP for Maidenhead in Berkshire.
Pros? - Identifies as a One-Nation Conservative and is someone both the centre and right of the party may feel they can do business with. Seen as a pragmatic and non-ideological. Has often talked about the need to broaden the base of the Conservative Party and appeal more strongly to working class voters.
Cons? - When asked to comment on May's personality, one backbench MP replied 'What personality?'. Some on the right have never forgiven her for the 'nasty party' speech at the 2002 Conservative Conference.

 

[JDGiant]

As I see it, the Tories really would be thin on the ground in terms of leadership choices if they lost a 2007 snap election. The Howard era frontbenchers are mostly discredited or too divisive or too 'past it' and a lot of those who made an impact post-2010 (Gove, Hunt etc) aren't ripe enough. Those three mentioned would probably run, but it's not really a great choice. There would probably be some attempt to draft Boris into the race despite his London Mayoralty aspirations, and there would surely be some token hard right candidate (Bill Cash?) after the defeat of the modernising project in a general election.

Look forward to seeing how it pans out.

 

[stodge]

I understand this cuts to the heart of the premise of this TL but I doubt the Conservative Parliamentary party would oust Cameron after losing an election after just two years. After all, in OTL they stuck with Heath after he lost to Wilson in 1966 and with May after throwing away Cameron's majority in 2017.

Hague, IDS and Howard had all shown in their own ways the folly of tacking further to the Right so I suspect Cameron would stay on.

As for the Liberal Democrats, assuming Menzies Campbell led the Party into the election, I'd expect, him to stand down as he'd be facing a 5-year parliament. A lot would depend on which 52 MPs survived but Nick Clegg and Chris Huhne would be the likely contenders as in OTL.

 

[8bitninja]

As I see it, the Tories really would be thin on the ground in terms of leadership choices if they lost a 2007 snap election. The Howard era frontbenchers are mostly discredited or too divisive or too 'past it' and a lot of those who made an impact post-2010 (Gove, Hunt etc) aren't ripe enough. Those three mentioned would probably run, but it's not really a great choice. There would probably be some attempt to draft Boris into the race despite his London Mayoralty aspirations, and there would surely be some token hard right candidate (Bill Cash?) after the defeat of the modernising project in a general election.

Look forward to seeing how it pans out.

Thanks for your comments 😀
A defeat in 2007 could definitely be characterised as a crisis in the Conservative Party. As you observe, who can they choose and what direction can they go in, having tried leaning towards the right and the centre?

I understand this cuts to the heart of the premise of this TL but I doubt the Conservative Parliamentary party would oust Cameron after losing an election after just two years. After all, in OTL they stuck with Heath after he lost to Wilson in 1966 and with May after throwing away Cameron's majority in 2017.

Hague, IDS and Howard had all shown in their own ways the folly of tacking further to the Right so I suspect Cameron would stay on.

As for the Liberal Democrats, assuming Menzies Campbell led the Party into the election, I'd expect, him to stand down as he'd be facing a 5-year parliament. A lot would depend on which 52 MPs survived but Nick Clegg and Chris Huhne would be the likely contenders as in OTL.

I absolutely take your point. There would definitely be many strands of the multiverse where Cameron would point to the result as proof that he needed a full term in opposition to convince voters the Conservatives had really changed and that would be enough to save him. In this scenario I’m imagining that a substantial portion of the party only supported/tolerated his social liberal policies if they delivered victory, so after a defeat in 2007 the knives are out very quickly. I based this on reactions by some of the Tory right after the OTL 2010 result (we failed to win a majority and it’s all Cameron’s fault). Keeping Cameron on would be the rational choice, but I’m not imagining the right being rational after yet another loss 😅

In terms of Liberal Democrat leadership candidates, I certainly agree that Clegg and Huhne would be the most likely contenders 👍

 

[8bitninja]

May handles difficult interview with Andrew Marr - 13 January 2008

Conservative leadership frontrunner Theresa May faced a potentially awkward encounter with BBC's Andrew Marr this morning when she was grilled on the state of the party, her challengers to become leader and her own brand of Conservatism.

Taking the first slot on Marr's Sunday Politics, the BBC political editor did not bother with niceties and opened by asking the Shadow Leader of the Commons whether the Conservative Party was 'finished as a party of government'. Despite the provocative question, May did not appear flustered and pointed to progress made at last year's election. 'We brought back a portion of voters who had supported us before 1997,' she responded 'what we have to do now is demonstrate that we as a party are able to reach out beyond our traditional base'.

The expansion of the Tories' appeal to include working class voters has been a central feature of May's leadership campaign so far and was referenced on several occasions during the segment. Questioned on how a May-led Conservative party would regain the trust of those voters, she explained 'I've spoken to a lot of working people up and down the country and they're not looking for the government to involve itself in every aspect of public life. They just want the opportunity to get on and for the injustices in their daily lives to be addressed'.

Given the very public 'Draft Boris' movement which grabbed headlines over the course of December, May's comments on the London Mayoral candidate perhaps betrayed a concern over what might have happened to her chances had he entered the race. 'I think Boris is an excellent Conservative candidate for Mayor and I wish him all the best in that contest' - a response which Marr interpreted as a concession that Johnson would have been a threat.

Marr ended the interview by asking about May's style of leadership, stating that she was 'not known for being the most charismatic politician out there'. In what was perhaps a dig at some of her fellow leadership contenders, May countered 'I might not be the most showy of people, but I get the job done'.

Conservative MPs are due to vote in the first round of the leadership election next week after nominations closed on Friday. Once only two candidates remain, the contest will go forward to a vote of party members. May currently has a narrow lead in the latest polling average of Conservative members with 35%, followed by Liam Fox on 28% and right-wing backbencher Bill Cash on 15%. Shadow Chancellor George Osborne has attracted the support of a sizeable number of MPs but is polling at just 7% with the grassroots.

 

[8bitninja]

Chris Huhne may have won but the future is uncertain for the Liberal Democrats

The Economist – 2 February 2008

In many ways Chris Huhne is quite similar to Nick Clegg, whom he narrowly defeated earlier this week to become leader of the Liberal Democrats. Both oppose the war in Iraq and the government’s rules around detention without trial. Clegg’s leadership manifesto was nearly as green as Huhne’s and they share a common platform on identity cards. Indeed, one might be forgiven for concluding that had the votes gone a point or two the other way and instead delivered Clegg victory, the party would still head in the same direction.

However, the two candidate’s differences – though not numerous – are very important as indicators to where Huhne may lead the party and the challenges he will face along the way. Much like his vocal supporter David Steel, the new leader is opposed to Trident and wants to do away with the nuclear deterrent. Huhne’s frequent references to the Conservative’s defeat in last year’s general election highlight a difference in presentation: his challenger is seen as young and charismatic, but in an implicit criticism of Clegg he pointed to the 2007 result as proof that those qualities alone could not guarantee success.

On a more fundamental ideological level, those who backed Huhne are more likely to identify with the ‘social’ liberal wing of the party whereas Clegg’s supporters tend to consider themselves ‘market’ liberals. These ‘Orange Bookers’ (named for a policy paper co-authored by Clegg which was widely seen as a call for the party to shift to the right) are more comfortable supporting a Conservative government in a hung parliament scenario and generally prefer less state intervention in the economy overall. Huhne’s job now is to bring that wing of the party with him and persuade them to back his more left-leaning policies.

He can start by winning back the support of those who voted Lib Dem in 2005 but then backed David Cameron’s Conservatives two years later. Unfortunately for Huhne, polls during the leadership contest showed that they preferred Clegg by a sizeable margin. The new leader must find a way to persuade this group that the Lib Dems still have something to offer them. How Huhne approaches this will be influenced somewhat by who the Tories elect to replace David Cameron, although one suspects he might have an easier job tempting back former Lib Dem voters if the Conservatives choose Liam Fox rather than the current favourite Theresa May. As is so often the case with the Lib Dems, their destiny appears very much tied into what happens to the other two major parties and is therefore beyond their leader’s control.

The Liberal Democrats went into the 2005 and 2007 elections with hopes of making a breakthrough, but both results largely fell short of expectations. After a few disappointing years Huhne must find a new message which resonates with the electorate in order for the party to again make progress. This could be a focus on environmental concerns. It might be a unilateralist defence policy or calls for greater devolution within England. There are many options but none of them are sure-fire vote-winners.

Chris Huhne is the new leader of Britain’s third party, but almost half of that party voted against him. He faces many challenges in order to guide the Lib Dems back to success and prove his doubters wrong, but it is unclear how he does so.

 

[mymatedave10]

Just read this and it looks very interesting, here's hoping you return to this TL soon.

 

[8bitninja]

Just read this and it looks very interesting, here's hoping you return to this TL soon.

Thanks very much for your comments I’ve thought long and hard about whether I want to continue with this TL and ultimately I’ve decided to step away from it, for a few reasons:
- Writer’s block
- The risk of falling foul of the ‘no current politics’ rule. For example Theresa May is still a current sitting MP in OTL.
- Engaging with modern alternate history generally hasn’t been good for my mental health recently.

I’ve got some general notes of where I saw the TL going up to about 2017 or so, feel free to DM me if you want to discuss it further.

Thanks for understanding.

 

[mymatedave10]

Entirely understandable, RL issues always take precedence. Thanks for letting me know.