Alternate Electoral Maps

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Aaaaasima

wilcoxchar said:
I ended up finishing the other maps pretty quickly so here's the rest!

2002:

Independence (Tom Golisano): 62.28%
Conservative (George Pataki): 16.84%
Working Families (Carl McCall): 8.62%

View attachment 282585


2006:

Independence (Eliot Spitzer): 32.28%
Conservative (John Faso): 28.55%
Working Families (Eliot Spitzer): 26.27%
Green Party (Malachy McCourt): 7.14%

View attachment 282586

It's very fair to say 2002 was the Independence Party's height. That map looks more like a recolored Pataki victory map if you ignore Manhattan and the Bronx. :D 2006 seems more "normal". It's interesting to see how quick the shift of western New York to solid Conservative territory is since the Independence Party got a lot of its early support in the Rochester area and Golisano actually won Monroe County in 2002 in OTL.


2010:

Conservative (Carl Paladino): 30.80%
Working Families (Andrew Cuomo): 20.54%
Independence (Andrew Cuomo): 19.44%
Green Party (Howie Hawkins): 7.95%
Libertarian (Warren Redlich): 6.42%
Rent is Too Damn High (Jimmy MacMillan): 5.46%

View attachment 282598


2014:

Conservative (Rob Astorino): 32.70%
Green Party (Howie Hawkins): 24.11%
Working Families (Andrew Cuomo): 16.47%
Independence (Andrew Cuomo): 10.15%
Women's Equality (Andrew Cuomo): 7.02%
Stop Common Core (Rob Astorino): 6.69%

View attachment 282599

Goodbye Independence Party, hello Green Party! The Hudson Valley was frequently very close between the Conservatives and the Greens, while the Conservative base in the western part of the state still pushed them into the lead. Hawkins' performance in 2014 was the best performance for a non-Democrat-or-Republican candidate since Tom Golisano. Also notable in 2010 is the height of the Libertarian Party. The Libertarians actually got second among the third parties in Albany County with 3,483 votes to the Conservatives' 4,819.

It's interesting how the Conservatives remain a constant powerful minor party in New York, while the minor leftist and centrist parties seem to come and go but don't quite have the staying power since the death of the Liberals.

Also with 2014: Cuomo has 33.64% total. Without the Democrats and GOP, Astorino would only win because of Stop Common Core.
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The wikiboxes would look weird
 
Zek Sora

Zek Sora

Clinton super-slide, based on 538's Now-Cast. Actually looks somewhat plausible right now :eek:

genusmap.php

Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Tim Kaine (D-VA) - 375 EV, 50% PV
Donald Trump (R-NY)/Mike Pence (R-IN) - 163 EV, 41% PV
Gary Johnson (L-NM)/William Weld (L-MA) - 0 EV, 8% PV
 

naraht

Zek Sora said:
Clinton super-slide, based on 538's Now-Cast. Actually looks somewhat plausible right now :eek:

genusmap.php

Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Tim Kaine (D-VA) - 375 EV, 50% PV
Donald Trump (R-NY)/Mike Pence (R-IN) - 163 EV, 41% PV
Gary Johnson (L-NM)/William Weld (L-MA) - 0 EV, 8% PV
Click to expand...
538's nowcast (as of 8/4 4:45PM eastern) hasn't shown Clinton with a lead in Arizona since June 29 and hasn't even shown a Clinton lead in Georgia. However right now, Arizona is *exactly* 50-50 and Georgia is 51.5-48.5 for Trump. Clinton is ahead in NE-2, 50.4 to 49.4

Note, once you get beyond these states(/districts), it is a reasonably long distance to the next states which are South Carolina and Missouri which have an expected 1.9 and 2.3 point margin respectively.
 
Zek Sora

Zek Sora

naraht said:
538's nowcast (as of 8/4 4:45PM eastern) hasn't shown Clinton with a lead in Arizona since June 29 and hasn't even shown a Clinton lead in Georgia. However right now, Arizona is *exactly* 50-50 and Georgia is 51.5-48.5 for Trump. Clinton is ahead in NE-2, 50.4 to 49.4

Note, once you get beyond these states(/districts), it is a reasonably long distance to the next states which are South Carolina and Missouri which have an expected 1.9 and 2.3 point margin respectively.
Click to expand...

I said it was based on it, not that it was exactly it. I projected what a larger-than-expected Clinton victory might look like from it.
 
Zek Sora

Zek Sora

2004 minus Bush and Kerry:

genusmap.php

Ralph Nader (I-CT)/Peter Camejo (I-CA) - 278 EV, 0.38% PV
Michael Badarnik (L-TX)/Richard Campagna (L-IA) - 249 EV, 0.32% PV
David Cobb (G-TX)/Pat LaMarche (G-ME) - 4 EV, 0.10% PV
Michael Peroutka (C-MD)/Chuck Baldwin (C-FL) - 0 EV, 0.12% PV
Unpledged - 7 EV*
*Oklahoma has really strict ballot access laws; none of these candidates were on the ballot in 2004.

I might do 2008, if there's interest.
 

wilcoxchar

Zek Sora said:
2004 minus Bush and Kerry:

genusmap.php

Ralph Nader (I-CT)/Peter Camejo (I-CA) - 278 EV, 0.38% PV
Michael Badarnik (L-TX)/Richard Campagna (L-IA) - 249 EV, 0.32% PV
David Cobb (G-TX)/Pat LaMarche (G-ME) - 4 EV, 0.10% PV
Michael Peroutka (C-MD)/Chuck Baldwin (C-FL) - 0 EV, 0.12% PV
Unpledged - 7 EV*
*Oklahoma has really strict ballot access laws; none of these candidates were on the ballot in 2004.

I might do 2008, if there's interest.
Click to expand...
Huh, that's closer than I expected. 2008 would be interesting.
 
Zek Sora

Zek Sora

glenn67 said:
Please do 2008.
Click to expand...
wilcoxchar said:
Huh, that's closer than I expected. 2008 would be interesting.
Click to expand...

Unfortunately, 2008 is much less exciting. :(

genusmap.php

Ralph Nader (I-CT)/Matt Gonzalez (I-CA) - 424 EV, 0.56% PV
Bob Barr (L-GA)/Wayne Allyn Root (L-NV) - 93 EV, 0.40% PV
Cynthia McKinney (G-FL)/Rosa Clemente (G-NC) - 9 EV, 0.12% PV
Chuck Baldwin (C-FL)/Darrell Castle (C-TN) - 5 EV, 0.15% PV
Unpledged - 7 EV

2012 will likely be even less exciting, but I'll do it anyway.
 
Zek Sora

Zek Sora

Told you 2012 would be boring. (I can't even use the proper yellow color for Johnson :mad:)

genusmap.php

Gary Johnson (L-NM)/James P. Gray (L-CA) - 512 EV, 0.99% PV
Jill Stein (G-MA)/Cheri Honkala (G-PA) - 19 EV, 0.36% PV
Unpledged - 7 EV
 
Uhura's Mazda

Uhura's Mazda

Banned
Here's the first preference data for the latest Australian general election, which happened last month but only just finished counting. Australia elects by AV (IRV if you're American) so this is effectively a map for if this election was held under First Past The Post.

THE COALITION: 93 (OTL 76)
Liberal Party: 55 (OTL 45)
Liberal National Party: 27 (OTL 21)
National Party: 11 (OTL 10)

Labor: 53 (OTL 69)
Green: 2 (OTL 1)
Independents: 2 (OTL 2)

So we see that under FPTP, the Greens would actually gain a seat, while Labor obviously lose by quite a lot to the Coalition, despite being almost level on the 2PP vote - this is because they get a lot of transfers from the Greens, who only serve as a vote-splitter for the 'Progressive' parties in this scenario. I had assumed that the same spoiler effect would apply in the Divisions where both Nationals and Liberals stood, but while this occurred, it did not lose them any seats.

No seats changed hands compared to OTL in ACT or NT, but 50% of the Tasmanian seats changed hands, as did 27% of the SA seats, 12.5% in WA, 20% in QLD, 8% in VIC and 4% in NSW. Nationally, the figure was 12%.

Aus2016FirstPrefs.png
 
Archangel Michael

Archangel Michael

Working a bit more in AJND. Here are some maps about state legislative control in the terrestrial states. An asterisk indicates that the party has a super-majority. The second and third rows show the number of seats per state for the Greens and Libertarians, the only two minor parties with representation in multiple states. A dagger in those maps indicates that that party is the second-largest in that house. And the last map just shows the partisan control of both houses.

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kodak

kodak

pkZJP8i.png

2014 House elections if all votes for a Republican or Democratic ticket were disqualified.

The only thing I have to add is that New Jersey is the place to be.
 
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