Sometime between the kingdom’s founding and their OTL conquest by Charlemagne, create a scenario in which the Lombards take over the city of Rome, and the Byzantines are unable to reconquer it. How does this impact the development of the Lombards? Would they centralize more? What happens to the pope?
AHC/WI: the Kingdom of the Lombards takes Rome
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The Pope would likely declare himself a prisoner in some neighborhood of Rome, like he did a millenium after the POD you suggested. And yes, the Lombards would centralize, likely adopt the Nicene creed and fend off Frankish incursions until roughly 790.
Then they're the new kings/emperor of Rome? The pope can whine but they hold the power now
The byzantines would try to reconquer it at some point, right? Who has the better odds in that war? Could the Lombards have also tried to conquer Ravenna, Naples, etc?
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The Byzantines would have better odds due to their stronger military (especially navy) and economy. I can see them conquering the Lombards before Charlemagne did, and any Lombard attempt to conquer Byzantine Italy would fail, possibly except if it happened during the mid-7th century, when Byzantium had to deal with the Arabs.
In that case, what would be some time periods in which the Lombards could reasonably take and hold Rome? Personally I think the earliest would be the early 7th century, and it would become easier the later the POD. The thing is, assuming we’re not butterflying Charlemagne, or the unification of France (is it too early to call them France?) under another ruler, I’m not sure they would have enough time to centralize even with Rome before they get conquered if our POD is in the 8th century. So here’s what I think this would mean in terms of the development of Italy in the Middle Ages. Take this with a grain of salt, because I am by no means an expert on this time period
If the POD is in the 7th century, I could see them managing to centralize and establish a hereditary monarchy. Given that they conquered Ravenna in 751 OTL, I could also see them conquering most, if not all, of Italy (though probably not Sicily). After Charlemagne, could that unification have carried over into the kingdom of Italy? Maybe italy splits off from the Carolingian Empire and is never part of the HRE, if such a thing exists ITTL. Medieval italy could be a very strong kingdom, at least in the north, not sure if they could hold the south.
If the POD is in the 8th century, medieval Italy is probably still the decentralized mess we saw OTL. Still, Rome might have more success exerting control over surrounding city states than it did OTL. Would the Pope still become the ruler of Rome ITTL? In both of these scenarios, I honestly have no clue what would happen to the Pope, or the development of the Catholic Church as a whole
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it would be interesting for them to take Rome and southern Italy between 640 and 650, when the Rashidun Caliphate was expanding, and try to centralize before the Byzantine coubnterattack.
We could go even earlier than that, to between 620-630, when Heraclius was busy fighting the Sassanids and trying to get the southern half of his empire back. I think Constans II would be the first ruler who can really focus his attention west, so that gives the Lombards 30-40 years of preparing for war
How exactly are the Byzantines gonna conquer the Lombards? They lost to them when the Byzantines were much stronger and the Lombards much less entrenched, the Byzantines are in no position to truely project hard power in Italy in the 8th and 9th centuries
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IIRC Italy only became a decentralised mess with the extinction of the Carolingians and the chaos that followed. A strong royal authority in Italy in the 9th and 10th century would completley change Italy. Cities would still be prominent and wield more influence than elsewhere in Europe since they were larger but not to the same extent as IOTL
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The Byzantine reconquest likely fails due to the previous failure during the 6th century.
Right but I don't see them attempting it in the first place, Italy was a very low priority after the disasterous 7th and 8th centuries
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Also, Charlemagne would be less likely to try and invade a stronger Lombardy; if he did, which is unlikely, there would be a Frankish defeat and less expansion in Western Europe.
Multiple times the Lombards were in a position to dominate the pope and the entire penninsula, but they were hindered by the Franks. A weaker Frankish empire would go a long way for allowing a Lombard dominance.
I don't think the Lombards would directly rule Rome, they'd probaly just puppet the popes and heavily interfere with all the papal elections. However if they manage to dominate the entire pennisula they might go for an imperial crown like Charlemagne.
On a further note, in 750 AD king Aistulf, after conquering Ravenna, declared himself king of the Romans. If they don't go for the Imperial title the kingdom might end up being called the kingdom of the Romans which is a neat name IMO
I don't think the Lombards would directly rule Rome, they'd probaly just puppet the popes and heavily interfere with all the papal elections. However if they manage to dominate the entire pennisula they might go for an imperial crown like Charlemagne.
On a further note, in 750 AD king Aistulf, after conquering Ravenna, declared himself king of the Romans. If they don't go for the Imperial title the kingdom might end up being called the kingdom of the Romans which is a neat name IMO
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Isn’t it different if Rome has been taken? Maybe the byzantines don’t care about Spoletto, Milan, etc, but Rome is not only the seat of an important patriarch but also the symbolic capital of the empire. If nothing else it’s valuable for its prestige. The last time it fell into barbarian hands Justinian nearly bankrupted the empire trying to get it back, though I get that that’s probably comparing apples to oranges. Retaking Rome might not be high on their list of priorities but it certainly wouldn’t be at the bottom either.
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When Justinian tried it the Romans were a superpower only rivalled by the Persians. Now they are a regional power constantly hammered by the Arabs, the reason the Pope called upon the Franks is because the Byzantines were simply unable to provide aid. They might send cash and some soldiers in such a desperate scenario (which I don't think it is, the Lombards are Catholics at this point and would respect the spiritual authority of the pope, just not necessarily the temporal one), but an actual army to conquer the Lombards? Not until the 9th century, and in a scenario where the Lombards remain in control of the entirety of Italy even then it would be difficult
The Frank's came over the Alps for centuries before Charlemagne. Maurice in 590s was bribing the Merovingians to send troops to attack the lombards, and quite a few times they would come back, the original foundation of the papal states is known as the donation of pepin, and that is charlemagnes father, iirc. So if the lombards threatened the pope more, then the pope would round up the closest powerful Frank(mayor or king) and have him ride to the rescue, again.
What kind of POD might weaken the Franks enough to allow the Lombards to take Rome? Maybe the Lombards manage to secure an alliance with the Visigoths, where the Lombards help the Visigoths conquer some land in southeastern France while the Visigoths allow the Lombards to conquer Rome, or if we’re looking for a later POV maybe the Muslims win at the Battle of Tours and the Franks are distracted
I would imagine the best time would be the mid 500s, when the Frank's were struggling with the Britons and the Visigoths, and the Burgundians. During the reign of Clovis' kids or grand kids, make their internecine slaughter worse, Lothar I's lucky thunder storm doesn't happen and he gets caught by his brothers who kill him and we don't have the 1st reunification, Aremorica remains Breton, Aquitaine stays Visigoth and the Franks stay centered on the lower Rhine, thus wouldn't be able to start intervening in Italy because they got too much going on in Gaul.