AHC/WI: Biafra Successfully Establishes its Independence from Nigeria
- Thread starter phil03
- Start date
It would be hard but not impossible
They would have to take the capital of Nigeria in a very tough atmosphere but if they do that then Nigeria will possibly implode and the Northern and Southern ethnic factions will start infighting
there was a coup just 2 years earlier where southerners tried to seize total power but it was eliminated by northerners
They would have to take the capital of Nigeria in a very tough atmosphere but if they do that then Nigeria will possibly implode and the Northern and Southern ethnic factions will start infighting
there was a coup just 2 years earlier where southerners tried to seize total power but it was eliminated by northerners
Nigeria disintegrates as multiple other ethnic groups decide to follow suit and secede as well
Biafra would be a friend to few right after independence but over time I think they cozy up to the West via their unique relationship with Israel. The Igbo people are one of the smartest by IQ collective ethnic groupings in the world, let alone their region of Western Africa. I expect a highly developed country, to coincide with their large oil resources.
Did you just actually say that a specific ethnic group is MORE INTELLIGENT than other groups?
Please DO expand.
I quite insist.
Within four hours of your next log-in.
Regardless of what happens next, please don't lock this thread
I am heavily into Cold war Africa stuff atm and might have more to add on this topic
Could also depend on British support for Biafra.
Funny since Nigeria was supported by Israel, the Soviet Union, the USA and the British at the same time.
Nigeria itself could face secession movements in the north if Biafra gained independence.
Wilson would have to find a very good reason to support Biafra.
The French were already supporting them, they’d gladly recognise and become their first trading partner once their independence is secured.
From there there wouldn’t be significant hurdles for wider international recognition.
Please don't read more into what I wrote. The Igbo have been tested via western IQ standards and on average score higher when compared to other Nigerian ethnic groups. This is all im saying. Are IQ tests the end all, be all? No. Are they bias? Sure. But I'm parroting research to make a point about how their nation might develop with or without Western assistance post independence, not making up racist junk. Additionally I'm not making a comparison to other people's possible IQ in regards to the success of actual or potential statehood. I'm speaking specifically about the Igbo.
Also the Igbo people are distinct, like the Hausa and Yroba people. It's fair to refer to their group as distinct in this context as well since they'd make up the majority of the population in this alt history Biafrian state.
Last edited:
If the French intervene earlier on for Biafra's side, Charles De Gaulle may or may not remain in power after 1969 (then again, he'd be dead in 1970)
- Referendum reforms might not pass, same as OTL
- Gaullists would be emboldened by having Biafra as a French ally, Shell-BP might have to acknowledge that fact.
- Gaullists may be in power longer
- Could affect Franco-Canadian relations. Thoughts on Quebec and the FLQ?
Wilson will be humiliated if Nigeria loses. Combined with Operation Banner, he'd be seen as holding together a crumbling house.
- North Yemen might have more British support to cover Wilson's arse over any allegations of "Withdrawing British Commitments". May delay the Civil War if USA gets involved to maintain Anglo-American positions in the Third World compared to the USSR
- Rhodesia and Ian Smith gets a bit more spirit in refusing British pressure over ending minority rule, Smith may garner relations with Biafra if Britain puts on a bit too much pressure
- 1970 election: Heath wins with a bigger majority (ATL 335 - 360 seats), George Brown may take over as Labour leader (either him or James Callaghan)
- By 1971, you'll have a covert alliance of Rhodesia, Israel, South Africa and Biafra + Portugal and its colonies. May make the anti-colonial campaigns different.
- Bigger endorsement of Linebacker II for Vietnam War.
- Soviet Union may cross China by giving support to the Paris Peace Accords for revenge for Beijing supporting Biafra. North Vietnam may remain in the Soviet sphere? China isolated enough to pursue peace/double-down and insist on a final victory?
- Heath refuses to end commitment to East of Suez. Fate of Hong Kong? Five Power Defence Arrangement strengthened.
- Wilson and Labour humiliated, don't win power until late 70s/early 80s? Healey, Foot or Jenkins would be in 10 Downing Street.
- Heath doesn't give support to either side in Yom Kippur War, OPEC still engages in the Oil Shock. South Africa, Portugal and Rhodesia may benefit from continued Biafran trade.
- China may act more as a rogue agent, seeing that their support of Biafra bore fruit. May be involved in more colonial struggles. May seek to sabotage Vietnam War peace talks.
The US (most likely Nixon/Kissinger) and the Soviet Union would be quick to resolve the issue of Biafra's nationhood, in spite of Wilson. Nigeria, whatever's left of it, would be forced to contain any further balkanisation.
Just a few thoughts off the top of my head. I could go on from there.
The minute you start talking "more intelligent than other ethnic groups", especially based on IQ testing (especially testing not specifically formatted for and designed with the potential testing sample in mind) you are so far out on thin Ice that even a tiny extra step will result in major problems.
I strongly suggest you refrain from referring to any ethnic group as being "smarter" than any other. More than one ex-member went too far out onto that ice.
Back to the topic, what are your thoughts on Britain after the ATL Nigerian Civil War?
Likely cold to Biafra since their ally and former colony just lost a major oil producing region.
Speaking of which, how much of a precedent would Biafra present for post-colonial secessionism? Would it be more legitimate ITTL?
Would Ted Heath try and regain some sense of honour with the other ex-colonies, North/South Yemen, Hong Kong, Brunei
Would he accept the OTL offer of the sheiks in the Trucial States to cover the costs of continued British military presence?
Ramontxo
Donor
Don't know about the other hypothesis but de Gaulle was succeeded by Georges Pompidou until 1974 and he by Valery Giscard d'Estaing both Gaullists. The first non Gaullist to win the Presidential Elections in France was the Socialist Francois Mitterand in 1981.
While I agree with all other points to some extent, I cannot agree on Point 6
Biafra is not worth sacrificing Vietnam over or deviating from what happened otl by too much
China crossed USSR many times and got away with it because Vietnam is too important