Alternate Electoral Maps

Indigo · Nov 27, 2012

When Guiteau sees Garfield at the train station, he recognizes Blaine and shoots him as well. Blaine survives, and as he didn't do much as secretary of state anyway, butterflies are minimal, until the 1884 election when Blaine's health is bad enough that he doesn't run and Arthur wins renomination unopposed. William Chandler is nominated vice president as a nod to the Half-Breeds, and he and Arthur squeak through in the election, winning 48.66-48.47% the popular vote and doing well enough in the east to win back New York (Arthur's home state) and Connecticut, while the eastern based ticket does just badly enough in Michigan to lose it by a few hundred votes.
The republicans win the electoral vote 211-190, getting Arthur a second term.

Tallest Skil · Nov 27, 2012

Abhakhazia said:
The reason for the two Dakotas is actually just Republicans gerrymandering the Senate.

Nope. It's about equality of state sizes.

Turquoise Blue · Nov 29, 2012

Here's a Tmap showing changes and losses in Two Americas...

NascarFan3 · Dec 1, 2012

Hello, I am new here, and I've been reading this thread and it's interesting, so I'll try my own map. 1912 Presidential Election 291 - Wilson/Marshall - Democratic Party[/COLOR] 65 - Taft/Sherman - Republican Party 118 - Roosevelt/Johnson - Progressive Party 59 - Debs/Seidel - Socialist Party.. [/COLOR]

.

Turquoise Blue · Dec 1, 2012

Um... Not to annoy you, but it just seems like a collection of colors to me. You have said the parties, but it looks too random. You do have a Dem South, however...

NascarFan3 · Dec 1, 2012

Turquoise Blue said:
Um... Not to annoy you, but it just seems like a collection of colors to me. You have said the parties, but it looks too random. You do have a Dem South, however...

The pink, light green, and light blue are where the popular vote percentages were lower than average, making it different colors. Pink and Red = Wilson, Light Blue and Dark Blue = Taft, Light Green and Regular Green = Roosevelt. Sorry if I confused you, I'll try to not make so much colors.

Turquoise Blue · Dec 1, 2012

NascarFan3 said:
The pink, light green, and light blue are where the popular vote percentages were lower than average, making it different colors. Pink and Red = Wilson, Light Blue and Dark Blue = Taft, Light Green and Regular Green = Roosevelt. Sorry if I confused you, I'll try to not make so much colors.

No, its not that. The placement of the votes are weird. Why would Debs win in Kentucky, Indiana and Texas, some of the most conservative states in the Union?

NascarFan3 · Dec 1, 2012

Turquoise Blue said:
No, its not that. The placement of the votes are weird. Why would Debs win in Kentucky, Indiana and Texas, some of the most conservative states in the Union?

I did it by randomness.I knew that Texas, Kentucky, and Indiana are conservative, however, I gave Debs Kentucky because it was his home state. I wasn't really thinking of the Conservatism of the states.

Turquoise Blue · Dec 1, 2012

NascarFan3 said:
I did it by randomness.I knew that Texas, Kentucky, and Indiana are conservative, however, I gave Debs Kentucky because it was his home state. I wasn't really thinking of the Conservatism of the states.

Debs' home state is not KY, its IN. And you should think of how strong Socialism is in the USA in 1912.

Look at this map. You should base Debs' EVs around the west, and a few in the Midwest.

Thande · Dec 1, 2012

If you want an idea of what a plausible arrangement would be, go to this page, look at the yellow boxes to the left of the map labelled "Democrat", "Republican", "Progressive", and "Socialist", and pass your mouse cursor over each one in turn. It will show you in which states the vote for each party was highest in 1912 in OTL.

(EDIT: TB beat me to posting the fourth map in question)

NascarFan3 · Dec 1, 2012

Turquoise Blue said:
Debs' home state is not KY, its IN. And you should think of how strong Socialism is in the USA in 1912.

Look at this map. You should base Debs' EVs around the west, and a few in the Midwest.

I meant Indiana, but apparently Kentucky came out. I updated the map. 303 - Wilson/Marshall 93 - Taft/Sherman 116 - Roosevelt/Johnson 19 - Debs/Seidel

Thande · Dec 1, 2012

NascarFan3 said:
I meant Indiana, but apparently Kentucky came out. I updated the map. 303 - Wilson/Marshall 93 - Taft/Sherman 116 - Roosevelt/Johnson 19 - Debs/Seidel

That is more plausible. One other thing. Save your image files as .png not .jpeg or you get that blurring effect you can see there.

NascarFan3 · Dec 2, 2012

1960 U.S. Presidential Election

270 - Kennedy/Johnson 240 - Nixon/Lodge 27 - Byrd

Plumber · Dec 2, 2012

Demonstrating Why Roosevelt Can't Win in 1912

I replaced Woodrow Wilson's 1912 ticket with Alton B. Parker's 1904 ticket, and for each state, I gave Woodrow Wilson's 1912 results the same % that Alton B. Parker got in 1904 (for AZ, NM, and OK, I subtracted the popular vote #s). 60% of the difference between the two was given to Roosevelt, 30% given to Taft (this is a little unfair to Debs, especially in ND, where Taft wasn't on the ballot and so Roosevelt got all 20.91%, pretty much mirroring his OTL performance over Parker in 1904, but hey, I'll give him a boost in the popular vote). Additionally, if Theodore Roosevelt hit n9%, he was rounded up to (n + 1)0% (most commonly, 39% to 40%, the only other visible effect is in the popular vote, where 29.95% become 30.00%). Interestingly, Taft still barely won Vermont: 38.95% to 38.86%. In some of the South, Wilson did worse than Parker did; I put in Wilson's numbers, but the only difference visible on the map is that Wilson wins Alabama by over 60% (as OTL), instead of Parker's 73%.

37.59% Alton B. Parker / Henry Davis (Democratic)
30.00% Theodore Roosevelt / Hiram Johnson (Progressive)
24.45% William Howard Taft / Nicholas Butler (Republican)
07.06% Eugene V. Debs / Emil Seidel (Socialist)

Thande · Dec 2, 2012

Plumber said:
I replaced Woodrow Wilson's 1912 ticket with Alton B. Parker's 1904 ticket, and for each state, I gave Woodrow Wilson's 1912 results the same % that Alton B. Parker got in 1904 (for AZ, NM, and OK, I subtracted the popular vote #s). 60% of the difference between the two was given to Roosevelt, 30% given to Taft (this is a little unfair to Debs, but hey, I'll give him a boost in the popular vote). Additionally, if Theodore Roosevelt hit n9%, he was rounded up to (n + 1)0% (most commonly, 39% to 40%, the only other visible effect is in the popular vote, where 29.95% become 30.00%). Interestingly, Taft still barely won Vermont: 38.95% to 38.86%. In some of the South, Wilson did worse than Parker did; I put in Wilson's numbers, but the only difference visible on the map is that Wilson wins Alabama by over 60% (as OTL), instead of Parker's 73%.

37.59% Alton B. Parker / Henry Davis (Democratic)
30.00% Theodore Roosevelt / Hiram Johnson (Progressive)
24.45% William Howard Taft / Nicholas Butler (Republican)
07.06% Eugene V. Debs / Emil Seidel (Socialist)

View attachment 191890

Interesting exercise. The point is well made; though I wouldn't call it 'impossible' for TR to win in 1912, people tend not to realise how difficult it would be because of how the arithmetic stacks up.

Plumber · Dec 3, 2012

Thande said:
Interesting exercise. The point is well made; though I wouldn't call it 'impossible' for TR to win in 1912, people tend not to realise how difficult it would be because of how the arithmetic stacks up.

It's awful hard, at this point, Parker did the worse out of any candidate with the Democratic Party, except for 1860, which is a unique case. Of course, during the 1920s, Wilson's legacy would cripple the party (though Smith would get 40%, miles better than Davis' 29% or Cox's 34%, he was the worst off electorally).

TNF · Dec 5, 2012

Theodore Roosevelt wrests the Republican nomination from Taft in 1912.

379 (50.57%) Theodore Roosevelt / Hiram Johnson (Republican)
152 (41.84%) James B. "Champ" Clark / John Burke (Democratic)
0 (05.99%) Eugene Debs / Emil Seidel (Socialist)

Four years later, President Roosevelt seeks an unprecedented fourth term in office against New Jersey Governor Woodrow Wilson.

294 (49.31%) Theodore Roosevelt / Hiram Johnson (Republican)
237 (49.24%) Woodrow Wilson / Thomas R. Marshall (Democratic)

eaglesfan101 · Dec 5, 2012

That progressive lime green is the best damn color in the world. Fuck the red/blue duopoly.

Japhy · Dec 5, 2012

A World without the Kennedy's Part I - 1960

POD: Joe Sr. Gets venial disease which renders him infertile. He's still going to be a figure in the Roosevelt Administration before he goes and makes an ass out of himself in London, and thats the end of that for him.

337 - Richard M. Nixon / Henry Cabot Lodge, Jr. (Republican)
161 - W. Stuart Symington / George A. Smathers (Democratic)
39- Orval E. Faubus / Richard B. Russell, Jr. (States Rights Democratic)

Stuart Symington's nomination by the Democratic Party in 1960 triggered a revival of the 1948 Dixiecrat split. Vice President Nixon does well for himself, but the Democratic split pushes him to new heights, Eisenhower's inroads in the upper South were grounded in by Nixon, who also wins half the black vote (Symington's immediate compromise with the Smathers nomination did not go well). It was rather strait forward after that. Nixon swept in, Symington honorably lost, and Dixie was starting to rage and foam at the mouth.

vultan · Dec 5, 2012

Japhy said:
snip

Quick question: in this scenario, Henry Cabot Lodge probably keeps his Senate seat in 1952. With such a different career trajectory, would he even necessarily be Nixon's running mate in 1960?