Best case scenario for ottoman empire?

Rockingham

Banned
What is the best case scenario for the ottoman empire?By this I don't mean territorially, as overstretch(like otl) was what really killed it. I'd like to see a way for to remain a military, naval and economic power(with no unreasonably early canal or asb conquests of india) It should still be
euro-med centric, should have capitalised on the industrial era rather then lagging behind, and reformed to an extent by 1900's latest. I'd also like to see some vestiges of democracy/citizens rights etc. like it seemed to be approaching before its fall otl, and it should be tolerant of its people with no serious uprisings. No elimination of nationalism either(my humble opinion is it was inevitable even without the napoleonic wars). Only real ay I can think for a stable balkans though is far more islamic conversion there. Any ideas?:D
 

Admiral Matt

Gone Fishin'
Oh, I don't know that overstretch killed it. I mean to say, I'm not convinced it was overstretched in 1914. I suppose overstretch made it weak enough that when the era of Total War came around, all was lost.

I think there are a lot of ways to go here. The main issue is: when is this best case scenario for? The modern day?
 

Abdul Hadi Pasha

Banned
Admiral Matt said:
Oh, I don't know that overstretch killed it. I mean to say, I'm not convinced it was overstretched in 1914. I suppose overstretch made it weak enough that when the era of Total War came around, all was lost.

I think there are a lot of ways to go here. The main issue is: when is this best case scenario for? The modern day?
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It wasn't fundamentally overtreched in 1914, but it definitely overstretched itself in the war but taking on multiple fronts at once.
 

Abdul Hadi Pasha

Banned
Emperor_of_Rockingham said:
What is the best case scenario for the ottoman empire?By this I don't mean territorially, as overstretch(like otl) was what really killed it. I'd like to see a way for to remain a military, naval and economic power(with no unreasonably early canal or asb conquests of india) It should still be
euro-med centric, should have capitalised on the industrial era rather then lagging behind, and reformed to an extent by 1900's latest. I'd also like to see some vestiges of democracy/citizens rights etc. like it seemed to be approaching before its fall otl, and it should be tolerant of its people with no serious uprisings. No elimination of nationalism either(my humble opinion is it was inevitable even without the napoleonic wars). Only real ay I can think for a stable balkans though is far more islamic conversion there. Any ideas?:D
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The turning point for the Ottomans was the period 1876-1878. With a few minor changes they could have beaten off the Russian attack and done reasonably well thereafter. In 1876, the empire had rapidly growing revenues, fast development of its infrastructure and reform of government, a fairly powerful military including the third-largest navy in the world, and developing elective institutions including provincial representative bodies and an imperial parliament.

The population of the Balkans was 43% Muslim, and Muslims formed a majority or plurality (meaning it was the largest group when not a majority) in most of the directly-ruled portions of the Balkans, and maybe more importantly, in most of the border regions (Bosnia and northern Bulgaria) - and this was trending Muslim due to settlement of the continuous stream of Muslim refugees being ejected from Russia.

1878 stripped the empire of its most advanced and productive provinces, and diminshed revenue by about a third, without diminishing the amount that had to be spent. There was no money available to maintain the navy, and none for economic development. It also discredited Constitutionalism and led to Hamidiyan autocracy, which was probably necessary to save the empire, but likely held it back economically in the long-term (although development was still pretty impressive). With the pre-1877 empire and the long period of peace that followed the Treaty of Berlin (except for one war in 1897 with Greece which was short and crushingly victorious), I don't see why the empire couldn't have remained a power.

You still have the problem of nationalism and interference of the Powers on behalf of Chrstian minorities, but beating Russia will make the Ottomans factor much more in the balance of power, and development of the rail network will cause an inflow of Muslims from the poorer Asiatic provinces to the richer Balkan provinces.
 

corourke

Donor
Maybe a repeat of the Crimean war in 1878? It doesn't seem that unlikely that Britain would again support the Ottomans against the Russians.
 

Rockingham

Banned
Admiral Matt said:
Oh, I don't know that overstretch killed it. I mean to say, I'm not convinced it was overstretched in 1914. I suppose overstretch made it weak enough that when the era of Total War came around, all was lost.

I think there are a lot of ways to go here. The main issue is: when is this best case scenario for? The modern day?
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I wasrefferring to overstretch for when venice/poland/russia/hapsburg confed attacked it. The ottomans always lacked allies on al fronts.

1914 is too late. I would like the ottomans to still be one of the gret powers of europe in 1850s, and play a role as one of its powers. It can experience some relative decline, but no massive territorial losses until ww1 equivalent and general world imperial collapse destroys it. It should however, by modern times be in a commonwealth system or stronger with most of its former empire, with the caliphate having some spiritual authority at least. If you can get turkey and whaever states it would be in fedration wih to reain a great power till now (not hard with oil) and be economically firstworld, all the better.
 

David bar Elias

Tony Jones' Cliveless World had the Ottoman Empire evolve into a peaceful (and strong) socialist state. Maybe an end result like that with a different POD?
 

Smaug

If you're talking 20th century, they better have oil and railroads, at some point fast. Sevastopol or Iraq, i'm thinking. If they got the Russian oilfields it would be better.
 

Keenir

Banned
Emperor_of_Rockingham said:
What is the best case scenario for the ottoman empire?
I'd also like to see some vestiges of democracy/citizens rights etc.
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it gave rights to its citizens.

it had a parliament.

like it seemed to be approaching before its fall otl, and it should be tolerant of its people with no serious uprisings.
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the Ottoman Empire was tolerant of those people who didn't rise up against it.

Only real ay I can think for a stable balkans though is far more islamic conversion there. Any ideas?:D
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in OTL, the Balkans were stable - until outsiders incited revolution.
 

Larrikin

Banned
Big change

Converting to Christianity around about the time of the Reformation may have had a big positive impact.
 

Rockingham

Banned
Keenir said:
it gave rights to its citizens.

it had a parliament.



the Ottoman Empire was tolerant of those people who didn't rise up against it.



in OTL, the Balkans were stable - until outsiders incited revolution.
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I know it was tolerant and had a parliament, I was just saying those things shouldn't change. Although the the parliament and peoples rights should be extended, and the Ottoan empire, or at least it's legal successor, should be a firstworld democratic nation with a defacto and at least mostly dejure constitutional monarchy
 

Rockingham

Banned
Larrikin said:
Converting to Christianity around about the time of the Reformation may have had a big positive impact.
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Yes, and i'm thinking the european islam should have a few unique differences to its middle east counterpart. More liberal, more like albania and turkey's otl islam(effectively supportive of secular democratic government). And yes, I know people will disagree about albania, but it's trouble's are cultural, not religious, and shared by it's christain counterparts.:rolleyes:

It would have effectively have inherited the renaisance, the reformation(european islam)... how about the eqivalent of an ottoman renaissance and reformation, as well as significant reorganization of the government 3 centuries earlier...
 

Rockingham

Banned
VCS said:
They were.



By the 19th century the Balkans were a lawless mess of brigands, independent-minded governors and warring highlanders that the Turks had given up on trying to tax.
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The 1850's? Not really. They were militarily and territorially pwerful(hard power) but what they lacked was soft power. They were pretty bad of economically. They lacked popular support throughout much of the empire, let alone acceptance into the "greAt power" club in Europe. If they were still a great power in the 1820's why wern't they invited to the congress of vienna???? Sure, they had an empire and military thet would make any europen nation proud, but it was rapidly becoming decrepit, and wasn't even permitted into the congress of europe. It had no place in the europen order, ominated as it was by the holy alliance:winkytongue:ut simply, it takes more then army to make a nation a great power.
 

Rockingham

Banned
There seems to be a slight of confusion of what I mean. I want the best case scenario for the ottomans approx.1650 to now, without it turning int a complete wank. By that I mean, their should be the expected setbacks as well, but by 1900's ottomans should be an indisputably great power.
 

Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy

Banned
Emperor_of_Rockingham said:
They were pretty bad of economically.
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So was Russia.

They lacked popular support throughout much of the empire, let alone acceptance into the "greAt power" club in Europe. If they were still a great power in the 1820's why wern't they invited to the congress of vienna????
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Because they didn't take part in the Napoleonic Wars.

Sure, they had an empire and military thet would make any europen nation proud, but it was rapidly becoming decrepit, and wasn't even permitted into the congress of europe. It had no place in the europen order, ominated as it was by the holy alliance:winkytongue:ut simply, it takes more then army to make a nation a great power.
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You mean the Concert of Europe, which was an informal thing. As for the Holy Alliance, it was a Christian club and you should read up on its actual purpose. I don't think the Ottomans were interested in joining and I can't see why they would be.
 

Rockingham

Banned
VCS said:
So was Russia.



Because they didn't take part in the Napoleonic Wars.



You mean the Concert of Europe, which was an informal thing. As for the Holy Alliance, it was a Christian club and you should read up on its actual purpose. I don't think the Ottomans were interested in joining and I can't see why they would be.
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-Yes, russia was, but russia was also larger, in terms of size and population.
-Sory, my mistake on the holy alliance/concert of europe. My point is, they weren't accepted by the other states of europe as having the rights of territorial integrity, let alone the rights of a gret power. Another example being there not being include in the eight nation alliance, even though japan was.
 

Rockingham

Banned
Anyway, my idea for the POD is that the ottomans play a part in the thirty years war, allied with france and sweden, or in the war between france and spain that continued after the peace of westphalia. In the aftermath, the three nations establish an alliannce, perhaps with some tenet in the peace of westphalia that the rights of muslims in christian states is to be respected, and vice versa for christians in muslim states(in addtion to recognition of rights of calvinists and protestants, it seems plausible). Although in practice this tenet would probaly be ignored, it's most important effect would be that it could allow alliances with the ottoman empire on that basis. Ottomans would gain austrian territory outside holy roman empire, which would be established as a vassal/buffer againsts austrians, and they also get spains north african ports and morrocan vassal.... maybe malta as well. They maywell launch offensives on iberia from sea,in which case they may enlist barbary pirates help, so maybe they get war reparations in the form of occupied spanish cities being looted..."rape of valencia" perhaps.... maybe with constantinople getting a percentage of lootings and pirates the rest. As for the portugues morrocan possesion... i assume thats gobbled up sooner or later?
 

SRT

How do you think things would have changed for the Ottomans if they had intervened in the Reconquista? They wouldn't want to around 1450, probably, but what about but 1480 or even 1500?
 
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