Best case scenario for ottoman empire?

1650 was about the time that a) Europeans finally gained tactical mastery over the Ottomans on land, with things like light cannon and men like Gustavus Adolfus etc and b) the Dutch and others had an industrial and commercail revolution with powered machinery building the ships etc which were used by the first joint-stock company. How were the Ottomans going with things like advanced metalurgy and gun founding, and wind/watermill powered industrial processes? Did they ever have joint-stock companies like the east indies companies?

Not exactly the same, but there were financial concepts that were close enough in general idea that joint-stock companies were one of the easier ideas to absorb. Note that it wasn't until you had limited liability jpint stock companies that things took off - and that was a 19th c thing. Before, each shareholder was personally liable for the whole company.

The first Ottoman joint-stock company was formed in 1851 - the Şirket-i Hayriye, or Bosphorus Steamboat company - it was actually very successful.

I don't really see industrialization happening earlier in the Ottoman Empire, but if you have a POD that provides you with a stronger empire they will be in a better condition to develop. The biggest problems were hte terrain of the empire, the lack of concentrated populations, the Islamic land tenure system that resulted in few landless laborers, and the Capitulations and commercial treaties which kept tariffs very low (the maximum import tariff was initially 3%, which was absolutely fatal to Ottoman industry). Western imperialists were very anxious to prevent any competition from developing anywhere. An example would be in Egypt where Cromer destroyed the Egyptian sugar industry by applying an 8% tax on sugar production to counter the 8% import duty, leaving Egyptian sugar unable to compete with heavily subsidized European sugar.

In 1650 Europe did not have tactical mastery over the Ottomans - but they had caught up in most regards and were able to compete on the field - whereas 100 years earlier European armies avoided even engaging the Ottomans - note that there was not one major field battle between the Hapsburgs and the Ottomans in that period - the Emperor always fled to a safe distance and hoped the Ottomans would get bogged down in seiges.
 

Riain

Banned
I've got a book called 'The economic history of Europe' and in it is a map showing called 'Industrial Europe and Agricultural Europe' showing areas of intensive industry and intensive agriculture. Ottoman areas have very little area shaded as 'intensive agriculture' and none at all as 'Manufacturing, Mining and Commerce'. In contrast all the major European players of the modern era have extensive intenisve agriculture and industry. Perhaps it wouldn't matter what the Ottomans did, they would still be overtaken by those who could exploit their territories more intensively and profitably.
 

Rockingham

Banned
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I think a reformation in the 17th c is extremely unlikely, given that the OE was still going pretty strong, and this period is too close to the highest point of the empire. All reformers were likely to take the position that what was needed was to fix the existing system to return it to its past efficiency, not replace it with an infidel system that had proved inferior for centuries. Remember that the Ottomans were able to beat Russia and Austria combined as late as the 1730s.
If they entered the thirty years war though, and later European wars, mightn't they adopt some of their new technologies or strategies? Perhaps a charasmatic grand visier or other? What I meant, though, was a reformation of Islam first(similar to renaissance perhaps), which in turn resulted in an earlier reformation of the state.
I don't think the Romanians were taxed at all at this point, though I could be wrong.



That's a contradiction in terms, and it will never fly with Austria and France.



It didn't become a British possession, they just took over the administration. It was only after Turkey joined WWI that they annexed it.
France?They wouldn't care, there neutral and on the other side of Europe.
Also, I meant defacto romania annexed formaly into ottoman empire but de jure more autonomus in many ways.

I also meant cyprus a defacto british possesion, which it was

1650 was about the time that a) Europeans finally gained tactical mastery over the Ottomans on land, with things like light cannon and men like Gustavus Adolfus etc and b) the Dutch and others had an industrial and commercail revolution with powered machinery building the ships etc which were used by the first joint-stock company. How were the Ottomans going with things like advanced metalurgy and gun founding, and wind/watermill powered industrial processes? Did they ever have joint-stock companies like the east indies companies?
a)The idea, as mentioned above, is they adopt the light cannon etc. by being involved in wars alongside sweden and france and seeing it's effectiveness. Also their generals would adopt west european strategies from being involved in their wars (in spain, italy etc.) alongside french or other allies armies. This would improve the Ottomans military position vis-a-vis Europe.
b)Badly. But improvement in military and political terms would imply improving ottoman conomy as well. Although their low tarrifs were a disadvantage, for example, they could potentialy be advantageous. How plausible would an overland route on the sues peninsula being used by the dutch east india company be. With only a 3% tariff on it, it may be cheaper then sailing along the longer route. It may also be a stimulant to the ottoman economy, even resulting in the idea of a joint stock company taking off(I know people won't like that idea, but the presence of such a succesful company with its main trade route over the ottoman empire may promote the idea)

Not exactly the same, but there were financial concepts that were close enough in general idea that joint-stock companies were one of the easier ideas to absorb. Note that it wasn't until you had limited liability jpint stock companies that things took off - and that was a 19th c thing. Before, each shareholder was personally liable for the whole company.

The first Ottoman joint-stock company was formed in 1851 - the Şirket-i Hayriye, or Bosphorus Steamboat company - it was actually very successful.

I don't really see industrialization happening earlier in the Ottoman Empire, but if you have a POD that provides you with a stronger empire they will be in a better condition to develop. The biggest problems were hte terrain of the empire, the lack of concentrated populations, the Islamic land tenure system that resulted in few landless laborers, and the Capitulations and commercial treaties which kept tariffs very low (the maximum import tariff was initially 3%, which was absolutely fatal to Ottoman industry). Western imperialists were very anxious to prevent any competition from developing anywhere. An example would be in Egypt where Cromer destroyed the Egyptian sugar industry by applying an 8% tax on sugar production to counter the 8% import duty, leaving Egyptian sugar unable to compete with heavily subsidized European sugar.

In 1650 Europe did not have tactical mastery over the Ottomans - but they had caught up in most regards and were able to compete on the field - whereas 100 years earlier European armies avoided even engaging the Ottomans - note that there was not one major field battle between the Hapsburgs and the Ottomans in that period - the Emperor always fled to a safe distance and hoped the Ottomans would get bogged down in seiges.
-Your implying the idea won't be to much of a leap to adopt before 1700-1750s?
-Economic growth normally results in concentrated populations, but concentrated populations don't necessarily mean economic growth.
-Italy managed. It doesn't have to be as economically succesfull as Europe for a while, just more so then the ottoman empire was ttl, and a first world state by know.
-Capitulations could be slowly removed, piece by piece. For example, spain and germanies could have all rights economic privileges taken from them, and progressively all states that went to war with the ottoman empire. I don't see them taking away the capitulations to france for a while, although they may "alter" them.

Are these ideas plausible?:eek:
 
France?They wouldn't care, there neutral and on the other side of Europe.

The Poles, Romanians, Maronites, and other peoples were each a cause célèbre in France at this point and long after.

Also, I meant defacto romania annexed formaly into ottoman empire but de jure more autonomus in many ways.

By the 1877-1878 war Romania was as autonomous as any state under Ottoman suzerainty could hope to be. One of the arguments used for the declaration of independence was that Turkey didn't really have any authority here anyway. The only thing it could offer Romania at this point would have been independence. And the description you just gave makes even less sense than the previous one.
 

Rockingham

Banned
The Poles, Romanians, Maronites, and other peoples were each a cause célèbre in France at this point and long after.



By the 1877-1878 war Romania was as autonomous as any state under Ottoman suzerainty could hope to be. One of the arguments used for the declaration of independence was that Turkey didn't really have any authority here anyway. The only thing it could offer Romania at this point would have been independence. And the description you just gave makes even less sense than the previous one.
Ok forget romanian annexation. I'm convinced. So, which of the 3 scenarios is most plausible:confused:
 
If they could stay out of WWI, and keep together with a few reforms, then they would become a wealthy nation after the oil boom.
 

Rockingham

Banned
If they could stay out of WWI, and keep together with a few reforms, then they would become a wealthy nation after the oil boom.
Just a thought, when egypt becomes independant of britain(if it does in ttl) would it revert to ottoman control, be defacto ottoman but with no real ottoman control, or would the brits make the ottomans agree to make egypt completely independant of both of them
 
1)Muslim iberia occupied at some point by ottomans in iberian reconquista. Morrocco and much of southern iberia becomes ottoman vassal.

Iberia's too far until the early 16th century.

2)Ottomans intervene in thirty years war, make small gains.

It wouldn't be an intervention in the war, it would be the Turks going back to their old fight with the Spanish and/or Austrian Habsburgs. The only Ottoman interest in the war itself is in how it effects the Catholic-Protestant struggle in Royal Hungary and Transylvania. And it did, but still not in a way that would lead to another Austro-Turkish war. I suspect they were too busy fighting the Poles and Persians to care.

Main effect-The "religious liberation" of the resultant treaty extends to muslims and acceptance of muslim states.

Why? There were barely any Muslims living under Christian rule to make an issue out of them.

Alliance between sweden france and ottomans, which comes to play in the great turkish war or it's otl counterpart.

I don't think either the Swedes or the Ottomans cared enough about what happened in each other's turf at this time.

3)1850-1875
Minor changes in events, ottoman victory in 1877-78 war, better crimean treaty

Are you talking about just the 1877-1878 war or the Crimean War as well?

(restitution of destroyed ottoman ships, moldava and crimea back to ottomans, etc. or a stronger finacial revival avoiding bankruptancy could all work.

If you're just talking about the 1877-1878 war, Crimea's out of the question. Moldavia's out of the question for both wars.

Just a thought, when egypt becomes independant of britain(if it does in ttl) would it revert to ottoman control,

Egypt was officially Ottoman. It was just that the governor* had a lot of authority and his office was hereditary. Unofficially, it was treated as an independent state. There's no question of Egypt becoming independent of Britain because it was not a British protectorate or colony or anything until WWI. Officially, that is.

be defacto ottoman but with no real ottoman control, or would the brits make the ottomans agree to make egypt completely independant of both of them

OK, I'm pretty sure you've got de facto and de jure mixed up.

*The title of khedive was only recognized by the sultan in 1867, up to that point the Egyptian ruler was officially a vali (governor), though he claimed the title.
 

Philip

Donor
I don't think either the Swedes or the Ottomans cared enough about what happened in each other's turf at this time.


I am sure neither cared about the other's land, but I am equally sure that they could find common ground with regards to Russia. The Great Northern War could serve as a model.
 
I am sure neither cared about the other's land, but I am equally sure that they could find common ground with regards to Russia.

Poland-Lithuania more likely, the Ottomans hardly cared about Russia until the early 18th century. But France would rather have the Poles as allies.
 

Rockingham

Banned
Iberia's too far until the early 16th century.


It wouldn't be an intervention in the war, it would be the Turks going back to their old fight with the Spanish and/or Austrian Habsburgs. The only Ottoman interest in the war itself is in how it effects the Catholic-Protestant struggle in Royal Hungary and Transylvania. And it did, but still not in a way that would lead to another Austro-Turkish war. I suspect they were too busy fighting the Poles and Persians to care.
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Why? There were barely any Muslims living under Christian rule to make an issue out of them.



I don't think either the Swedes or the Ottomans cared enough about what happened in each other's turf at this time.



Are you talking about just the 1877-1878 war or the Crimean War as well?



If you're just talking about the 1877-1878 war, Crimea's out of the question. Moldavia's out of the question for both wars.



Egypt was officially Ottoman. It was just that the governor* had a lot of authority and his office was hereditary. Unofficially, it was treated as an independent state. There's no question of Egypt becoming independent of Britain because it was not a British protectorate or colony or anything until WWI. Officially, that is.



OK, I'm pretty sure you've got de facto and de jure mixed up.

*The title of khedive was only recognized by the sultan in 1867, up to that point the Egyptian ruler was officially a vali (governor), though he claimed the title.
-Point taken. Un unlikely scenario might be a coalition of north african states and the ottoman empire, (allowing them to reach iberia with difficulty), but that seems almost asb to me.
-The reason for the war is not of importance, just the ottoman entrance into the war. Incidentally, simply preventing a war with the persians would be an adequate pod for the war(their was one from 1623 to 1638). . Ottomans entering, may, however, make poland enter on catholic side, it was considered in ttl. I'm thinking ottoman entrance would more then balance that out however.
-Im sure the swedes would wan't safe guards against possible hapsburg/holy roman revanchism- this ttl, swedes have probaly taken more holy roman land. They are separated by 3 hostile states(poles, holy romans, russians), what better reason for an alliance with ottomans. As for france, Ottomans serve as an ally against spain, as well as german hapsburgs, and poles may have entered the thirty years war on the catholic side in ttl(im refering to vcs's post).
-I'm saying that either, a better crimean treaty or a victory 1877-1878 war would suffice, it doesn't have to be both.
-Crimea's out of the question? Not if britain enters the war on turkish side, they'd have naval and military capability to do it.As for bessarabia... it doesnt have to be all of it, just at least half of it, andthe british would be as eager as the ottomans to punish the russians(second "crimen war" in a generation after all)... dont forget theyd be blockading the baltic and attacking in pacific and possibly attacking in central asia as well(britain)
-Alright then, what would happen to egypt if became independant of britains defacto control.
-Yes, i did get them mixed up. My mistake
 
-Crimea's out of the question? Not if britain enters the war on turkish side, they'd have naval and military capability to do it.

Look back to the Crimean War. You had Turkey, Britain, France, and Sardinia fighting against Russia. You had little action in the Balkans. Here you have the Ottomans devoting a lot of troops to containing the Russian forces that have crossed Shipka Pass and are threatening Adrianople; no way are they going to afford an expedition to Crimea. You had a long Siege of Sevastopol before it finally fell, and Crimea's a lot bigger than Sevastopol. You had an end to the war mainly because Austria seemed ready to intervene. You had the Principalities as a prize. Here you have Romania fighting on Russia's side. You had the Russians diverting troops to fight Muslim highlanders in Circassia, Chechnya and Dagestan, uprisings that ended in the 1860s.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure Crimea's out of the question.

As for bessarabia... it doesnt have to be all of it, just at least half of it, andthe british would be as eager as the ottomans to punish the russians(second "crimen war" in a generation after all)

You're confusing Moldavia with Bessarabia. In any case, any territory gained in Bessarabia would go to Moldavia/Romania (like the southern strip did in 1856).

-Alright then, what would happen to egypt if became independant of britains defacto control.

How this happens would matter a lot.
 

Rockingham

Banned
Look back to the Crimean War. You had Turkey, Britain, France, and Sardinia fighting against Russia. You had little action in the Balkans. Here you have the Ottomans devoting a lot of troops to containing the Russian forces that have crossed Shipka Pass and are threatening Adrianople; no way are they going to afford an expedition to Crimea. You had a long Siege of Sevastopol before it finally fell, and Crimea's a lot bigger than Sevastopol. You had an end to the war mainly because Austria seemed ready to intervene. You had the Principalities as a prize. Here you have Romania fighting on Russia's side. You had the Russians diverting troops to fight Muslim highlanders in Circassia, Chechnya and Dagestan, uprisings that ended in the 1860s.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure Crimea's out of the question.



You're confusing Moldavia with Bessarabia. In any case, any territory gained in Bessarabia would go to Moldavia/Romania (like the southern strip did in 1856).



How this happens would matter a lot.
So your opinion is a return to the status quo, with no ottoman gains(except possible compensation to ottomans and british) is the best case scenario for the ottoman empire

Incidentally I wasn't confused, and moldavia was an ottoman vassal. Also I was thinking if ottomans gained bessarabia(or most of it) it would become a new state under ottoman suzerainty, rather then going to moldavia which had berayed ottomans
 
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Incidentally I wasn't confused, and moldavia was an ottoman vassal.

It sure looked like you were. First you say:

Minor changes in events, ottoman victory in 1877-78 war, better crimean treaty(restitution of destroyed ottoman ships, moldava and crimea back to ottomans, etc. or a stronger finacial revival avoiding bankruptancy could all work.

Then you say:

As for bessarabia... it doesnt have to be all of it, just at least half of it, andthe british would be as eager as the ottomans to punish the russians(second "crimen war" in a generation after all)...

You switched from Moldavia to Bessarabia just like that. In any case, during the 1877-1878 war Moldavia was part of Romania, which was an Ottoman vassal, but to say that Moldavia was an Ottoman vassal then would be like saying that the village of Rusetu in eastern Wallachia (that's where my father 's family's from) was an Ottoman vassal.

The first thing the ottomans would do before any annexation in Russian Bessarabia would be to take Romanian Bessarabia (the southern strip) so as to have a land connection with the new gains.
 
[...] the Capitulations and commercial treaties which kept tariffs very low (the maximum import tariff was initially 3%, which was absolutely fatal to Ottoman industry). Western imperialists were very anxious to prevent any competition from developing anywhere. An example would be in Egypt where Cromer destroyed the Egyptian sugar industry by applying an 8% tax on sugar production to counter the 8% import duty, leaving Egyptian sugar unable to compete with heavily subsidized European sugar.
Ah, the world has not changed so much since then ;)

You obviously have a great depth of knowledge on the topic, Abdul, can you point us to some AHs you've written about the Turks or otherwise?
 
I don't think all the decline of the Ottomans was avoid able to to the nature of European politics. the BEST CASE SCENARIO would be if they somehow got ahead in industrialization, or stayed out of WWI, or if they where on the winning side, then they could became wealthy through oil like Dubai did.
 
I don't think all the decline of the Ottomans was avoid able to to the nature of European politics. the BEST CASE SCENARIO would be if they somehow got ahead in industrialization, or stayed out of WWI, or if they where on the winning side, then they could became wealthy through oil like Dubai did.

They could become powerful through oil the way Dubai did - yet actually, if you look closely enough, not that many countries really get wealthy when they have oil. They might have money, and they surely spend a lot of it, yet that doesn't necessarily equal wealth. The Emirates are wealthy, whether or not Saudi-Arabia is wealthy should at least be questionable, Iran surely is not wealthy, Russia has a lot of money - yet if they're welathy, why the hell are they collecting clothes in my hometown to send them to Russia? Venezuela seems to become welathier very fast - but on the other side that doesn't seem to be very sustainable.

Given OTL experience with plural ethnicities (as in the Ottoman empire) and unequal distribution of wealth (Belgium: Flandres wealthier than Wallonia, Basques and Catalonians wealthier than the rest, Croats and Slovenes wealthier than Serbs...), one has to assume that as soon as oil revenues flow, the parts of the country these revenues come from will call for autonomy, given to that that oil is pretty much only in the Arab parts, the Ottoman Empire will have quite hard times if they really "get rich by oil". Any independence movement grows as soon as the parts demanding more independence become the wealthier parts - which would be the case in the Ottoman Empire. Therefore the solution can only be industrialization and economic progress in all parts of the Empire and especially in OTL Turkey and the Balkan territories.

Another point: At the beginning of the threat, most people agreed that overextension of the Ottomans led to their decline until the 19th century - yet to counter that development, they should overextent even more into spain and Germany? How does that work?
 
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