Europe After The Peace Talks

The War to End all wars had come to an end in the Spring of 1917. Europe was in chaos as a result of the massive fighting and damage that had taken place. The truce that had been hammered out had after a lot of arguements lead to the current state of peace. It was a peace that had shattered the old order.

The Czar was desperately attempting to save the monarchy. He and his advisers had hoped that the peace with Germany would give the country a chance to bring some order back into the Chaos that had become Russia. The reformers had some grasp on power and were not willing to give it up. The question was would enough of the old Imperil Russian Army hold together long enough so as to be able to restore order to the Capital and to the countryside.

Already the new Polish state was taking shape and there were doubts that the Germans and their Austro-Hungarian allies would be able to contain it. The states were becoming restless and without a Russian military to contain them they were declaring themselves independent.

The war had ended not a minute too soon as the Imperial German Army was beginning to show some creaks. Hindenburg was still the Marshal in charge but things were not the same. The Kaiser was warned that it might be for the best if he considered turning the ruling of the Empire over to his son as there were those in Germany that blamed him for the current mess. The country needed food and it needed it fast.

To the west the German army had marched out of occupied France leaving a mess that would take the French years to repair. Even though orders had been issued not to blow things up there still was a mess to be dealt with. Belgium was in a little better shape and foreign aide from the US was currently pouring in to help the devastated country.

Lloyd George was proclaiming that Britain had won the war. Had not the British Empire grown as a result of the war and was not Belgium free and the Germans out of France. But what was ignored was the fact that millions had died and much had been expended in this war. Ireland was a mess as the uprising was growing by the day. The British public had little desire to fight an insurgency in Ireland and it was expected that the government would have to give in. Still Lloyd George had gained territory for the Empire in the Middle East. Across the Channel there were desturbing reports from the French. It seemed that the French were on the verge of another Revolution.

The Question was could the French Army hold itself together and become and instrument to hold France together or would the country run red with blood as the Blame for losing the war spread. But Did France actually lose the war? Indeed the French Empire grew as a result of the war and France was not any smaller than it had been in 1914.

In Italy there was political chaos as one government replaced another. The failure of Italy to win anything in the war cause there to be even more anger from the people at the stupid politicans too free to spend the lives and treaures of Italian soldiers in some stupid war.

Austria-Hungary was also in Chaos as Emperor Karl decided that he would follow through with his promises to the people and carry out reforms that would give the Czech, Slovkiak, Slovennes and serbs some say in the empire that they lived in. The Hungarians wanted to break away by Karl was finging support from those elements that he was reaching out to.

Bulgaria was fa and happy as a result of its reward for fighting with the Germans. The Restored Serbian state was a lot smaller and it also was in a state of Chaos. Even Greece was distressed as the King and Prime Minster wer at one anothers throats. The Prime Minister had supported the allies while the King had wanted to stay out of the war. Now the Prime Minister proposed to attack Turkey and regain the "lost lands" the King had doubts about the wisdom of hte idea but it was popular in Greece.

As For the High Seas Fleet, which had been one of the reasons that the British had gone to war well it was still sitting mainly in port. Some of the damaged vessels were to be scrapped and there were questions if the Kaisers fleet would receive any new ships. A few capital ships with escots had set sail but not into the North Seanstead they were on their way to the Baltic to help ferry troops to the Baltic States to restore order.

America had made a lot of money during the war supplying the allies. It now had a lot of allied noted and the question is would the allies pay up or default.

chris N said:

The War to End all wars had come to an end in the Spring of 1917.

[snip]

America had made a lot of money during the war supplying the allies. It now had a lot of allied noted and the question is would the allies pay up or default.

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Pay up.

During the period of US neutrality, all loans were secured on Allied (mostly British) property or securities in North America, which could have been seized in case of a default.

By the end of 1916, however, all such collateral had been used up, and any future loans would have had to be unsecured. However, the Federal Reserve Board opposed this, and no unsecured loans were made until May 1917, after the US declaration of war.

Iirc, all the pre-1917 loans - called "Morgan loans" as the House of Morgan handled British finnacial interests in the US - were repaid by about 1925. It was the later unsecured loans which were defaulted upon.

Chris

France will hold together because it has too. For all the peace and German withdrawal from the eastern territories France still has a very powerful and probably pretty unstable [politically] German on its borders and needs to be cautious about a new attack. Their going to have a hell of a task rebuilding because much of the occupied zone, which includes their former industrial heartland, has been devastated by war and in places the German withdrawal to the Hindenburg Line at the end of 1916, unless the latter has been butterflied.

The key question will probably be what happens to Russia. If it can survive without a murderous civil war, either under a Czarist or a reformist regime then that would have huge advantages. Without a communist dictatorship becoming established you get much greater stability world-wide as well as less fear of social reform and in result less motive for extreme right-wing movements. Also Europe is more stable with an eastern counter to the still militarily pre-dominant Germany. Furthermore, while they will very likely be heavily written-down, if the Russian debts aren't defaulted Britain's position will be considerably improved economically.

For Austria a lot depends on the various factors at work. Without Wilson's 14 points, with Karl offering reform and the danger of German or Hungarian domination that should make both Bohemia and Croatia fairly willing to back such reforms and the monarchy. Hungary could be an awkward problem as the aristocracy there bitterly opposed reform but could from some sources I've read have been outflanked by passing power to the ordinary Hungarian.

With Britain and Germany either/both could go a number of ways but will probably interact closely, if quite possibly to mutual dis-advantage. They are the two powers that have seen some degree of 'victory' from the conflict. Although it was checked at Jutland and had started to decline already the core of the HSF is still present so there's the danger that a Germany deceived by what it thinks as a decisive victory will try and trigger a new naval conflict. [Not to mention the huge American 1916 programme if that isn't butterflied]. Also there will still be concerns in Britain about what Germany might do next. At the same time both are war weary and seeing pressure for social change, especially in Germany. The key point might be if reformist win in Germany. If so tensions and armament spending will probably decline and possibly quite a European revival will occur. If the militarists win then Germany and much of Europe could be in for a rough time and you will probably see a predominantly right wing period in Britain as well.

On the Ottoman empire, it hadn't really lost any land by spring 1917 so may come through the conflict with no material losses. Also its highly unlikely that it will be attacked by Greece without some allies. May still be fighting in the Caucasus region as the Russians had occupied a section of Ottoman territory here and even if the Russians are inclined to withdraw the surviving local Christians won't be too welcoming. Also given Enva Pasha's behaviour OTL he might try and seize territory from a disorderly Russia. Might also if Britain is feeling hostile see some continued support of the Arab revolt.

Steve

The reality that the war had come to an end was slowly sinking in. In Germany there was a demand that the Kaiser must resign as he had failed the nation. The Social Democrats wanted Changes to be made as well as reforms. The idea of Kaiser Wilhelm II continuing on was unacceptable. Still the supporters came up with a face saving which had the Kaiser turn the reigns of Power over to his son. Still Germany was intact compared to the other countries. It now had a buffer country in between it and Russia.

To the south Emperor Karl had begun his reforms and they seemed to be tying the country together. It appeared that the attempt by the Hungarians to go their own way had been a giant failure. The Romanians had recovered from their loss in the war but were still demanding the return of their gold reserves from Russia.

Six months after the war the country was only slowly pulling itself together. Gone was the days of the absolute Monarchy. The new Constitutional government had seen reforms taking place. An attempted coup by leftist elements had been crushed by the army's elite guard units. There was some hope that the country could become a democracy but it would take a lot of effort to make it a major power again.

Great Britain had emerged from the war a lot poorer than it had entered it. Dispite the fact that Ireland was soon to be gone the empire was intact and infact larger than it was before. The Germans did get back German East Africa and there was still an argument over whether it would get back another colony.

The Germans were even now preparing to scrape some of their older warships so as to save money and to gain some valuable steel.

France had swung first to the right and then to the left. it appeared that the game was to see who could be blamed for the loss of the war.

President Wilson's stroke had robbed him of a chance to play a part in the post war world. Still There was an American proposal for a possible Naval Arms Talks to be held in the US in 2 years. It was hoped that these talks could lead to a reduction in military spending and thus eliminate another possible conflict over who had the biggest Navy.

It appeared that the sick man of Europe the OTToman Empire was having problems as the elements seeking to end its decay brought about the collapse of the entire system. The British had gain some parts of the Empire but the resurrgent Turkish Nationalist havinga control of most of Iraq and Syria. the Lebanese coast was another question with the French claiming a protectorate over the Christian enclave.

The terms of the peace between France and Germany is going to be crucial here. If France doesn't get reparations for the damages Germany has done and Alsace-Lorraine, which were the minimum for most French people (85% polled in 1917), there will be a civil war and a series of assassinations. France would be incredibly unstable. Of course there would be a need to hold together, but a peace without the above will be a viewed as a major loss and it would leave France crippled. Beyond that the 3rd republic is going to collapse as a result of all this. Socialists and pacifists are going to be proven right, which will result in a major social schism that will be incredibly difficult to overcome. Expect a communist revolution on par with the Paris commune, as well as military intervention with bloody results further creating difficulties in the coming years.

Germany is not going to be much better off. The Kaiser is going to be discredited and probably will have to step down at some point, though his heir, the Crown Prince, is not very well liked either. Ludendorff and Hindenburg are going to be heroes and probably the saviors of the monarchy, but this will have a nasty effect on German post war military theory. Beyond that, there will still be the elements of the Socialist revolt, which will be felt in the very next election. However, this will mean that the military and ultraconservatives are going to throwing at fit, which could very well mean that the Reichstag is suspended. This in turn means a civil war in Germany, one that has the potential to get very nasty, especially as the army and navy have their own fault lines based on class. While working out their internal problems, it will prevent any further aggression, which will have important effects for the future of the Habsburgs. I still see them falling apart and getting partly absorbed into Germany with the rest set up as protectorates under German influence.

Britain and France are economically on the hook for years without German reparations and probably politically unstable to boot. Germany is hamstrung by its commitments to AH, while also having to control whatever was to be grabbed from Russia (Poland/Baltics) and is waiting to see what the fate of Russia is going to be.

No one is in a good way. Italy, though probably wracked by socialist revolution itself, is going to be hungrily waiting for AH to collapse and seize what it wants.

America is now the world economic power and probably tries to eventually pick off the Entente colonies as future markets by supporting (clandestinely of course) separatists, but also eying Japan across the Pacific. Rivalries remain, but are dampened for years by inflation, protectionism, and debt.

chris N said:

President Wilson's stroke had robbed him of a chance to play a part in the post war world. Still There was an American proposal for a possible Naval Arms Talks to be held in the US in 2 years. It was hoped that these talks could lead to a reduction in military spending and thus eliminate another possible conflict over who had the biggest Navy.

It appeared that the sick man of Europe the OTToman Empire was having problems as the elements seeking to end its decay brought about the collapse of the entire system. The British had gain some parts of the Empire but the resurrgent Turkish Nationalist havinga control of most of Iraq and Syria. the Lebanese coast was another question with the French claiming a protectorate over the Christian enclave.

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But no having the Political and Military power and Prestige to Subsatian it, in fact, they gonna have the weimar-like social trauma(going to the vendetta war and obtain nothing except damage and humillation) again, i need time to assimilated the Scenario and see the potential butterflies, and maybe with that avoid mistakes(the greek try to pulling their megalli idea again, if they doesn't calm down, the gonna going to a war who Deutchland can perfectly suppor their trustable Ottoman Ally and being humillated)

Europe appeared to be settling down now that it was 1920. In Germany Kaiser Wilhelm III paid a visit to the memorial honoring the dead of the recent European Conflict. The Social Democrats had attempted reforms giving the Reichstag a lot more power than what it had had prior to 1914.
A lot of repairs were taking place in Germany as piping, roads and buildings were restored. While Germany had not suffered the damage of France it had had a lot of lead piping torn up during the war and it now needed to be replaced with newer non lad piping.

To the south it appeared that Emperor Karl 's attempt at reforming the Empire was working. The Czechs and others now felt a part of the Empire.

To the West Italy now had its 4th government since the end of the war. It appeared that this one might last for mor than a few months. Italy was still trying to sort out its debt from the last stupid war. It now had piles of military equipment that was rusting away.

In what had been the Ottoman Empire the reformers appeared to have shaken off the last vestages of the corrupt system and were creating the Modern Turkish state. A Dymantic Turkish officer seemed to have acted like a whirlwond sweeping away all of the problems that had racked the state. The new state retained a good amount of territory that had previously been part of the Ottoman Empire and not captured by the British or occuppied by the French. A French effort to move out of the Lebanon enclave was delt with by the Turks, who gave them a bloody noose.

In Russia it appeared that the Central government had finally managed to get a handle on things. The Reds had never managed to be successful and the last group of them had been tracked down and eliminated. Many wondered if Russia would now use the 1920's as a period of rebuilding.

Britain had as a result of the war had to reduce its spending to pay off the fantastic amount of debt that the war had brought. The Washington Naval Conference was to take Place soon and it appeared that the Royal Navy would take a hit. Germany was expected to agree to a naval reduction so as to save money.

Washington Naval Arms Talks; The Post War world now was attempting to deal with one of the causes for the last war the naval arms reace between Germany and Great Britain. However, it was now considered a world wide problem as each country attempted to keep up with the rest of the powers wether to maintain their status or to counter a perceived threat. Neither Germany nor Great Britain had the money to spend on a second naval arms race and many of the governments wanted to reduce their naval arms purchases. Arguements immediately broke out regarding how much tonnage was enough and to the weight and armament of future capital ships.

Germany wanted to scrap all of its pre-dreadnought capital ships and was willing to scrape some of the older Dreadnoughts provided that it could retain the newer ships. The British also were willing to get rid of a lot of ships that they felt were no longer capable of maintaining a position in the Line of battle.

America had just completed a lot of capital ships so that its fleet was made up of some of the most powerful warships afloat

Okay Suggestions for a workable treaty are now open for discussion.

It seemed that all of the parties were willing to shed themselves of the old dreadnought warships and the British also wanted to rid themselves of those battlecruisers which had proven to be unable to survive in a battle with any
ships held by the otherside.
Some of the powers such as Italy and France wanted more tonnage but at the same time neither country had the moey to build new warships.

Russia had been invited to the talks but it's diplomats seemed to have little interest perhaps because the country had little money to spend on warships when the entire country was still in the process of recovering from the war.

The Japanese on the other hand were deemanding a lot of tonnage as they had a Pacific Empire to take care of. American was preceiving the Japanese as a growing threat and had pressured the British not to renew the teaty of 1905 that tied the two countries together.

Britain agreed to scrapping of the Dreadnought, Bellerophon class, St Vincent class Invincible class as well as all predreadnoghts. While Germany was to scrap the Nassaau class and the Helgoland class.

So what happened to Galicia in AH ?
Did stay in AH ?
Was it awarded to KP making Ukrainians hostile or to Ukraine, thus making Poles hostile ?
Or was it split making both sides hostile for not getting what they wanted ?

Without Wilson's 14 points, with Karl offering reform and the danger of German or Hungarian domination that should make both Bohemia and Croatia fairly willing to back such reforms and the monarchy.

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Too late.
On November 14 1915 the Czecho-Slovak Foreign Committee in Paris issued an official declaration of war upon th Habsburg Empire and demanded independent Czecho-Slovak state.

Is this a White Peace in the West, victory against Russia TL, or Germany lose her colonies in exchange for eastern territory TL??

Anyway; Austria is shaky, must go through serious reforms. The Magyars were ironically the strongest supporters of the Dual Monarchy right before the war, but now they would get angered if they lose territory due to federalization. The best way out for Austria would be divide and conquer, ie. reward some minorities and ignore others. Would be a very difficult task and would probably blow up in their face. Ignoring Serbs, Romanians and Italian would probably be popular though, since they recently were the enemy. What happened to Montenegro, I assume the Central Powers won in the Balkans, which mean Serbia has probably lost some border territory to Austria, can I assume the Austrians annexed Montenegro?

Here is my plan for Austrian division:
1. Austria- Austria, Slovenia, Italian speaking territory including Gorizia and Trieste
2.Bohemia- Bohemia, Moravia, Austrian Silesia. Autonomy within the region for Sudet Germans.
3.Croatia- Croatia, Slavonia, Dalmatia, Montenegro, areas annexed from Serbia
4. Hungary; The Kingdom of Hungary including Slovakia, the Banat and Transylvania (but not Croatia and Slavonia)
5. Galizia- Bukovina; East and West Galizia, Bukovina, building on Poles and Germans, ignoring Romanians and Ukrainians.
All these regions would be bound by a common monarch and a common foreign policy.

Germany; If Germany still has her colonies the Kaiser just might barely save his ass, if Germany has lost her colonies the Kaiser would lose all his power but might save his throne as a ceremonial monarch. Might have to abdicate in favour of his son.

Russia; the Czar is in serious trouble, just about anything could happen there.

Poland; As I understood it is created from Russian Congress Poland. Probably have territorial ambitions both east, west and south, but is weak and cannot be enemy with everyone.

Poland; As I understood it is created from Russian Congress Poland. Probably have territorial ambitions both east, west and south, but is weak and cannot be enemy with everyone.

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The Poles in AH would want to join, so that creates a conflict.

Galizia- Bukovina; East and West Galizia, Bukovina, building on Poles and Germans, ignoring Romanians and Ukrainians.

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Doesn't make sens to split it into West and East if the East isn't going to be ruled by Ukrainians. Would antagonise the Ukrainians in AH and Ukraine puppet state-if there is one.

Lokari said:

The Poles in AH would want to join, so that creates a conflict.


Doesn't make sens to split it into West and East if the East isn't going to be ruled by Ukrainians. Would antagonise the Ukrainians in AH and Ukraine puppet state-if there is one.

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Not split, just stating the territories that would belong there. And I agree Poles in Galizia would want to join Poland. (as would Poles in Germany, Lithuania and Belarus/ Ukraine).

yourworstnightmare said:

Is this a White Peace in the West, victory against Russia TL, or Germany lose her colonies in exchange for eastern territory TL??

Anyway; Austria is shaky, must go through serious reforms. The Magyars were ironically the strongest supporters of the Dual Monarchy right before the war, but now they would get angered if they lose territory due to federalization. The best way out for Austria would be divide and conquer, ie. reward some minorities and ignore others. Would be a very difficult task and would probably blow up in their face. Ignoring Serbs, Romanians and Italian would probably be popular though, since they recently were the enemy. What happened to Montenegro, I assume the Central Powers won in the Balkans, which mean Serbia has probably lost some border territory to Austria, can I assume the Austrians annexed Montenegro?

Here is my plan for Austrian division:
1. Austria- Austria, Slovenia, Italian speaking territory including Gorizia and Trieste
2.Bohemia- Bohemia, Moravia, Austrian Silesia. Autonomy within the region for Sudet Germans.
3.Croatia- Croatia, Slavonia, Dalmatia, Montenegro, areas annexed from Serbia
4. Hungary; The Kingdom of Hungary including Slovakia, the Banat and Transylvania (but not Croatia and Slavonia)
5. Galizia- Bukovina; East and West Galizia, Bukovina, building on Poles and Germans, ignoring Romanians and Ukrainians.
All these regions would be bound by a common monarch and a common foreign policy.

Germany; If Germany still has her colonies the Kaiser just might barely save his ass, if Germany has lost her colonies the Kaiser would lose all his power but might save his throne as a ceremonial monarch. Might have to abdicate in favour of his son.

Russia; the Czar is in serious trouble, just about anything could happen there.

Poland; As I understood it is created from Russian Congress Poland. Probably have territorial ambitions both east, west and south, but is weak and cannot be enemy with everyone.

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The black text is the problem(but in general the TL seems good), That is because in any scenario of victory against russia, both Poland and the Baltics States are gona be secede to Deutchland(if a revolt happen, Finland gonna declare Independance at the first momment possible) And a negotiated peace in the west(in this scenario Status Quo Ante bellum with the exception of Luxemburg, who is in firm german hand now, with a Significant German population and something will be less dangerous than belgium by the Channel ports)

Well, About the WTN, i think all the Great powers(USA, Britain and Germany) will gonna press for 1:1 parity and try to destroy the most old BB possible, maybe some side start to learn about the power of the Aircraft Carrier and not imposse restriction in their research...

we need more details about the peace treaties and a map of the world post bellum(Eurofed can help you in that)

Att
Nivek Von Beldo

I will try to hammer out more of what Europe should look like in this world of 1921. To begin with France failed to regain any of the territories that it lost in 1870. It did get back all of the territory that it lost to Germany in 1914-17 occupation. As far as Poland is concern most of the new Kingdom of Poland consist of the Russian Congress of Poland territory. Karl allowed the Polished dominated part of the empire bordering the new Polish state to join that state. This has created a Poland that is friendly to the new Austrian Federal Empire (name may change). I see Karl's Empire following the lines that Have been proposed .

The Monarchy managed to hang on to power in Russia but the Czar had to concede power to the DUMA.

The Baltic states are independent as is Finland. All the rest of the Russian Empire is intact with the last vestiages of the Red threat crush and independence movements also supressed.

I may see if I can do a map but if anyone else would like to try they are welcome to and we can see about adjustments.

I see there being a lot more problems with the Washington Naval Arms talks in this time line than in ours. To begin with you must add at least the Germans and the Austro-Hungarian Empire and that does present the problem that the Germans would not agree to the tonnage that the French or Italians would agree to. At the very least germany would want at leat 350,000 tons.

About the Baltic States; with German domination there would probably not be a Latvia or Estonia, but a Baltic German Duchy.

yourworstnightmare said:

About the Baltic States; with German domination there would probably not be a Latvia or Estonia, but a Baltic German Duchy.

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That is true mein friend.

Well its good than we know more now about the post war europe(yes both Poland with Galicia area is the proper size for a Poland in any CP victory scenario-like) But again, you doesn't respond about the Luxemburg fate(the most obvious being incorporated like a german state)...

Well another part who gonna make problems in the WNT is Japan... who finished the war almost bloodless and having the german collonies and chinesse concession(you have to explain that too, but i think in Asia germany doesn't have any political power) and will demand a proper first power navy(1:1 Parity with Britain,USA and germany), the battle between Austria Federal Empire and Italy will be the number in the Adriatic but they gonna recibe a second power parity(France and the Ottomans too, but obviosly France gonna scream for the situation, but they are the most short-middle term losser of the war besides Russia)

well waiting for more update(more info can be in post or PM)

Att

Nivek von Beldo

Asia; Germany keep colonies; The Pacific and Asian colonies taken by Australia and Japan would still be lost, because those nations wouldn't leave the territory they've occupied.

If Germany lose all her colonies it doesn't really matter, since then Japan and Australia would be awarded the areas they've occupied.

Either way German power in Asia would be gone.

About the Baltic Duchy; while it was the aims of Imperial Germany to set up a state for the Baltic Germans, if the Kaiser is ousted, or if a very Prussian critic government take power (the Kaiser gone or sidelined, the Junkers losing face) there would probably be Estonia and Latvia instead, and more republics than monarchies in new Eastern Europe. However if the Kaiser stand strong we'd have the Baltic German Duchy, and the latvians and estonians would have to continue suffer under the German aristocracy.

Ukraine and Belarus: Depend on how good a deal Germany got from Russia. Germany had plans to set up friendly regimes in those nations, but those would be very unstable, neither Ukrainian nor Belarussian nationalism were yet that strong.