Europe After The Peace Talks

[chris N]

Okay, here is the current situtation regarding Germany. Kaiser Wilhelm II resigned as Monarch and was replaced by his son the Crown Prince. Since Germany is basically intact having suffered no territorial loses the Monarchy has held. However, The parliament demanded reforms and the new Kaiser is not exactly as strong as was his father before the war. The Social Democrats want to cut military spending to rebuild the country.

The result of this has been that while Germany retains a strong influence in the Baltic states it has not been strong enough as to keep the idea of a Baltic Grand Duchy alive. Finland is independent and has become a Monarchy due to the Peace talks taking place and Germany retaining military clot.

Russia is on the mend more of a constitutional Monarchy now. It still is recovering from the ravages of the war .

 

[yourworstnightmare]

Hmm, with a weakened monarchy and probably disgraced junker class, we would probably not see that many monrchies being created in Eastern Europe. If the kaise is not sitting strong on his throne, the new nations would not be interrested in importing German princes as kings, but instead creating republics with their own leaders. Even though Germany is democratic for the moment, there is no guarantee it would hold. We probably won't see a strong communist party yet, since the revolution in Russia seems to be delayed, but the junkers who still constitute almost half of the German officers would probably be a threat towards the new system. Especially if the Germans fail to dominate the new states in Eastern Europe. Then they'd eventually come to the conclusion that they indeed have lost the war and been tricked by the government.

In the new nations of Eastern Europe things will also be unstable. In the beginning they'd pretty much lean on German support, but with a large unstable Russia, that can tilt into some kind of madness anytime the lure of dictatorship is large. Especially Poland would probably try to loosen it's bonds to Germany relatively soon and try to establish a more independent postition. Lithuania I can see staying Germany's best friend in the region, due to fear of Poland (Vilnius is Lithuanian I take). I won't take up Belarus or Ukraine since I don't know your plan for those nations yet. If they're included in the peace deal between Germany and Russia, well things could get messy.

The Austo- Hungarian nations remain interresting. You mentioned Poland annexing Galizia. Just Polish majority West Galizia or the whole Galizia including Ukrainian majority East Galizia. Anyway that would probably strengthen the Polish economy. That would also leave Bukovina as an Austrian mini Romania.
In Bohemia there would probably be some insecurity between the new Czech state apparatus and the Sudet Germans. The Austrians would probably have made sure the Sudet Germans have certain autonomous rights, that the Prague government would try to revoke. Expect tensions between Vienna and Prague over this issue.
The Magyars only losing Croatia- Salvonia would probably make sure Hungary is still the largest Habsburg supporter. Magyarization of Slovakia, Transylvania and the Banat would continue, and Serbs and Romanians would still look at Belgrade and Bucharest for support. Hungary would still be relatively stable. The Hungarian nobility would remain a strong factor, could very well see them becoming the most influential nobility in Europe, but common Magyars would be able to get their interests represented in the parliament in Budapest. This could be a Hungarian golden age.
Croatia would be the new player, created as a Catholic south slavic state, and as an counterweight to Serbian aspirations. Croatia would have a secure Croat majority, and Croatization of areas like Montenegro and Bosnia- Herzegovina would ensure. The Catholic church would be a strong tool for the building of the Croat nation. Being a Bosnian muslim would be very hard.
The Austian part of the Habsburg lands would probably see much democratization, since the Austrian Germans were more than ready for more political freedoms. I see Social Democrats and Christian Democrats as the two largest forces (unlike Germany where there probably will be tie with 7-8 parties). The awakening of Slovenian nationalism and a fear of Italian aggression would probably lead to a colonization process, where German Austrians move to the Slovenian and Italian speaking areas to Germanize them.


Balkans;
crap, since Romania and Serbia are listed losers I guess Bulgaria at least hasn't lost any territory. Has Bulgaria annexed territory from her neighbours like Macedonia from Serbia and Greece and North Dobrudja from Romania (and worst case scenario the Nis area from Serbia)?? In that case Bulgaria would be the major power of East Balkans. That would also ensure revengist Serbia, Greece and Romania, and a Bulgarian feeling of being surrounded by enemies. I don't think democracy has any other chance than being a short experiment in these countries. The Serbian monarchy might fall, what would replace it is uncertain. A military dictatorship is not out of the question. Romania, Greece and Bulgaria could all become Royalist Dictatorship. For Bulgaria that's the most probable way. In Greece there is also a chance for a military dictatorship. In Romania both a military dictatorship or a popular dictatorship featuring the OTL fascist Iron Guard is possible.

 

[chris N]

Germany Kaiser Wilhelm III is not the man his father was. It would seem to me that he is bidding his time to regain some of the lost power. The Parliament may have gained a lot of power but the Kaiser still has quite a bit. As for the East Germany still remains the strongest Military power in Europe. Its army did quite well during the war and the Imperial German Navy dominates the Baltic. While the Baltic states are independent Germany has pushed them into a Federation so as to resist any resurgence by Russia>
Finland is another case. The Germans domination of the region kept the Finns on the path to selecting a German Prince as its monarch.

Poland: The Poles only got the part of the province that was dominated by a majority Polish Provence. The Eastern part seems to be more like an attempt by the empire to woe the Ukrainians.

Balkans: Yes Bulgaria has ended up being the power in the region. Of course it has also created a lot of enemies in the region as the Romanians , Serbs an to a lesser extent the Greeks all want lands back. The allied powers were able to get a lot of the Greek territory back for Greece

Still there is little doubt that the region is a powder keg waiting to go off.

 

[chris N]

While the Naval Arms talks continued on in Washington things moved along in Europe. The start of the 1920's had seen Europe still recovering from the war. Most Germans avoided going to France or Belgium as relations between the three countries had yet to improve. Germany as a peace offering had contributed nearly 2 million Marks to reconstruction in Belgium. The effort had eased tensions between the two.

Still there was a lot of bitterness between France and Germany. The French had been building fortifications and it seemed that there were still those that yearned for the Next war so that France could recover its lost lands.

The Germans seemed to have learned the lesson that the tank would be an important weapon in the next war. As a result money was setaside to purchase some testing vehicles. The Austrians had learned the lesson much earlier and had already begun to replace horsed cavalry units with armored vehicles.

Already there were plans to take the guns from the German capital ships that were to be scrapped and to use them to help provide guns for the fortresses that would protect Germany.

 

[yourworstnightmare]

The wild card is of course Russia, since it is a bomb ready to go of.

Is Ukraine and Belarus independent?

In Ukraine there will probably be tensions between Mykhailo Hrushevskyi, who was a moderate nationalist and had some vague left wing ideas, Pavlo Skoropadsky, the right wing nationalist cossack who wanted Ukraine formed as a Cossack entity, the Social Democrat Symon Petilura, the Communist Volodomyr Zatonsky and the anarchist Nestor Makhno. Ukrainian national identity is at the time weak, and the at least Zatonsky is in probably in contact with Communists in Russia.

Belarus is even trickier. The Belarussian Germany worked with OTL were mostly moderate leftists. Belarussian national consciousness is even weaker than the Ukrainian, and the most active movement for a Belarus separate from Russia was the Belarussian Socialist Assembly. Of course general Stanislaw Bulak- Balachowicz, who was the Belarussian who was the senior Belarussian military figure, and a supporter of the OTL short lived independent republic was a right winger of noble birth. I smell coup. (of course our dear general considered himself both Polish and Belarussian).

 

[chris N]

No The Ukraine and Belrus both remain part of the Russian Empire. The Russian Imperial Army was able to suppress the independence movement The story in Belrus is one in which no one is exactly sure as to who really controls it. The Russian have some military forces near it and some of the politicans have sworn Allegiance but the Germans retain an interest in it. With the Austrians giving autonomy to its Ukrainian provience things might heat up in the Russian Ukraine especially with the "Red Hapsburg Prince" stirring the pot.

 

[Nivek]

No The Ukraine and Belrus both remain part of the Russian Empire. The Russian Imperial Army was able to suppress the independence movement The story in Belrus is one in which no one is exactly sure as to who really controls it. The Russian have some military forces near it and some of the politicans have sworn Allegiance but the Germans retain an interest in it. With the Austrians giving autonomy to its Ukrainian provience things might heat up in the Russian Ukraine especially with the "Red Hapsburg Prince" stirring the pot.

Well in that Scenario, you means than both russian only lose the most non russias culture areas(the Ukranian Indentity was product of both wars and the Stalin Opression and Holodomor) and yes, the Ukranian east galicia will gonna be a Headache for both countries for a lot of time if several butterflies...(who was the Red Hapsburg prince?, that is new for me)

And the King of Finland is Friederich Karl Von Hessel Kassel(http://editthis.info/kaiserreich/Fredrik_Kaarle_I )

well wating for more about the TL(and how will be the relation of germany with the warlords in china, because in OTL they heavily support the KMT before the Second Sino-Japanesse war)

 

[yourworstnightmare]

With the German monarchy being weakened, and the Russian Civil War butterflied, which in turn butterfly away the Finnish Civil War, Finland would be a republic.

Reasons;
1) Wiithout a strong German monarchy, no gain in having a Finnish king
2) Without the Civil War the Young Finns and Agrarians would still be against monarchy, and the Social Democrats would still be a large influencial force. Only the Old Finns and the Swedish People's Party would support monarchy, and that's not enough.

 

[chris N]

The problem with what you are saying is that Germany still remains the strongest military and economic power in the region. While Kaiser Wilhelm III is not as powerful as his son due to political reforms he does still remain a very important player within the German Empire.

It is hard to say what would be the case regarding Finland. The is a possibility that there may still have been a civil war between those who preferred to remain part of the Russian Empire and those that wanted independence. It is likely that Imperial Germany would have played a key role in the Independence movement. Also since Germany remained intact and as a Monarchy that may also have influenced things. Remember Finland and the Baltic states may need Germany as a counter weigh to Imperial Russia.

It is also possible that while the Baltic states may have become independent Germany could be pressing them to unite into a large state to better withstand pressure from Russia.

Washington: The naval Arms talks had reached an impasse over arguments by Germany that it would not accept the tonnage limit being recommend
by the Conference. The proposed 175,000 tons was in the opinion of the head of the German delegation designed to make Germany a second or third rate naval power. The Germans were willing to accept less than the Americans or the British but not that much less. Germany proposed 450,000 tons and the British of course said no way. The Americans then proposed raising the German limit to 250,000 tons but the Germans countered by reducing their demands to 415,000 tons. It was then decided to adjourn the meeting for a day so that the delegates could contact their governments.

 

[chris N]

Kaiser Wilhelm III decided that it might be a good idea for Germany to flex its military muscle so he strongly suggested to the Commander of the fleet that perhaps it might be a great idea if four of the Battleships with escort paid a visit to each of the Baltic States and to Finland as well. This would be the most massive display of German Naval Power since the war.

 

[chris N]

The Naval Arms talks resumed and the US , which had been secretly sounding out the various parties put forward a revised proposal. It would allow the US and Great Britain to have 645,000 tons, Germany 395,000 tons, Italy, France and Austria-Hungary would all be allowed 175,000 tons. Japan would be allowed 180,000 tons. This immediately stirred the pot but it appeared that the Germans were getting closer to agreeing to the deal

 

[yourworstnightmare]

Finland; No one wanted to be a part of Russia. The Civil War was between the Red Social Democrats who tried to have a Finnish Revolution, like the one in Russia and the White bourgeois elements. Before the Civil War the monarchists were a minority since the Agrarians, the Young Finns and the Social Democrats were against the idea. Now, with the civil war never happening, monarchism would never get a majority.

Also, we now have a democratic German government probably influenced by the left and the center. They would prefer republics in Eastern Europe, since moanrchs witht ties to the Kaiser and the Junkers might plot with the German nobility to undermine the newly won democracy. Don't think the Kaiser and the Junkers will give up power without a fight. Even with Wilhelm III now in power, there are probably a couple of coup plans considered by the Junker officers.

Not to mention, with a weak Kaiser, there is no need for German monarhcs in Eastern Europe to bind them to Germany. Economic and military aid will be enough. Also I think Germany in this case will try to create stable democracies in Eastern Europe (at least for the moment, if Russia goes Commie or otherwise become threatening Germany might want to consider some kind of military or authoritarian dictatorships to make sure these nations won't fall under Russian influence).

Russia, the Czar won't survive long. It's as simple as that. What will replace him is a question, but a time of anarchy is very possible.

 

[chris N]

Germany-since it is now nearly 4 years since the end of the war peoples opinion of the war and its cost are starting to change. Germany emerged from the war with its European territory intact. It has now created a buffer state between it and Russia. Despite plans for a Grand Duchy having fallen apart Germany retains influence in the Balkans. While Kaiser Wilhelm II had to give up the throne in favor of his son and the Reichstag got the poewer to put forward a candidate for Chancellor Kaiser Wilhelm III has been bidding his time to regain a lot of the lost power. New elections indicate that the parties of the Center -Right are going to make gains in the new legislature. This will mean that the Center-Left government dominated by the Social Democrats may be replaced with one that is more favorable to the Kaoser.
In the Naval Arms talks the German delegation is now balking at the tonnage limits and it appears that the talks will end up much different than in OTL or perhaps fall apart entirely. The Germans want to retain all of the late war ships as well as those currently under construction. That combined with retaining the Kaiser and Konig class of battleships plus some of the old battlecruisers would put Germany way over the limit.

The germans have discussed the selling of several capital ships to Turkey, Spain and Argentina. This has caused concern in London and to a lesser entent Washington. There has also been talk of selling a capital ship to the Dutch, which of course would piss of the Japanese and the Kaiser really would like to pay Japan back for stealing their colonies.

Germany managed to get back German East Africa and it is still awaiting the return of German Southwest Africa.

As for Russia it is an open question as to how the country will go. A lot of the Reds made an attempt to seize power during 1917 but it failed as Russia withdrew from the war. There is still talk about Nicholas giving up the throne in favor of his son or another relative. The parties of the center are willing to live with the Monarchy as it is much weaker than it was before the was> Alexander Krenesky as managed to hold onto the post of Prime Minister and has managed political reforms that have defused a lot of the problems. Still Russia has a lot of problems. The Imperial Russian Army has slowly pulled itslf together and is a lot more capable than it was in 1917.

 

[yourworstnightmare]

Germany won't get South West Africa back, since the South African Union won't secede the territory once they'd got it without a fight, and I doubt Germany has a stomach to fight the Commonwealth at this time.

Japan is probably still a British ally too.

Russia is a tough call, I am not convniced there was any way at all the monarchy could survive anymore. A powerless Czar could probably be accepted. A Center-Left coalition consisting of the Social Revolutionaries (the left wing party Kerenski belonged to), the Mensheviks and the Kadetts (liberals) could work as long as the economy work. Don't forget problems in the Caucasus, Central Asia and Ukraine/ Belarus once the national awakening there slowly begin.

The political situation in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland would be appreciated. Has democracy survived the first years of independence, or has dictatorship showed it's ugly face.

 

[chris N]

It is probably correct that the return of German Southwest Africa is no certainty. I believe that it might be possible but only if Britain applied some pressure and I'm not certain that the British would go that far but considering all of the other territory that the Empire got they might make an effort. Still probability would be less than 50% chance of it happening. German East Africa is more of a Certainty.

Austrian Federal Empire AKA the United States of Austria: Emperor Karl has been spending the post war years attempting to get the empire to work. It would appear that his reforms have managed to get the support of the Croats, Slovenians, Czechs and even the Hungarians. Russia has worries that the Ukrainian populate province of the Empire may be the first step to prying away the Ukraine from Russia. Improvement s to the life of the people has gone a long way toward integrating a diverse people together. Karl has also learned that the military must be reformed to allow for better command and control of it in war. Thus there is an attempt to make sure that all of the military personnel are able to speak one language That is not to say that they are not able to also speak Croatian , German, Hungarian, Ukrainian , Czech,or Slovenian or even Italian or Serb.

 

[yourworstnightmare]

Well, the problem with Austria was always it had too many cultures, and none was so dominant it really could quell the others. The Hungarians have a certain pride, and is building their nation inside the empire. In their view the Empire wans't one nation after the Ausgleich, but two. In this scenario Hungary would still consider itself a separate nation that just happen to be within the empire. Hungary would therefor consider the Hungarian military to be separate from the rest of the empire. All nations ought to have their own military.

I can see several Czech- German clashes in Bohemia over the Sudet question. This conflict could very well spread to the army. Czechs serving the Bohemian military would expect to serve in Czech, but many Bohemian officers would be German and never be willing to speak another language than German. For the Czechs it would all be about having a Czech military for the new Czech nation.

 

[NHBL]

Naval Matters

I see some throny issues with the German fleet. Specifically, it has only 2! ships with good sized main guns. 12" main guns are clearly insufficient now. I'd expect Germany to hold out for being able to complete at least the Saschen and Wurtenburg, and/or a few of the Mackensens. Of course, they may already be cmpleteed, depending on when the treaty talks take place...

 

[Monty Burns]

Considering both colonies and the fleet, I think the learning of German naval staff and colonial administration is underestimated. The recent war showed that an unlimited fleet was very expensive, but neither could be used to supply/defend the colonies, nor has it been able to break the blockade (which, I have to admit, are highly correlated tasks). In fact, the Heer gained Germany a favorable peace treaty. And now, even if they get higher limits in Washington, their fleet will be bound to inferiority to the Royal Navy as well as the US fleet. And breaking that treaty will alienate the US as well as Britain.

The conclusion to the Germans should be rather easy: Hostile Britain means blockade in future wars. Therefore either prepare to break the blockade or avoid hostile Britain. The second would be cheaper, and by the way should secure all colonial leftovers of Germany. So go for a fleet limit which shows Germany being a great power, but make sure the fleet does neither alienate Britain nor the US in the foreseeable future.

 

[chris N]

Naval Matters: Germany continues construction of the entire Bayern/ Baden class, thus the remaining two ships of it are in the process of joining the fleet. In an effort to reach a compromise Germany has announced the sale of the Battlecruiser Moltke to Turkey and the battleship Kaiserin to Spain and the Von Der Tann to Argentina. With the newer battlecruisers joining the fleet this shouls help to reduce the tonnage limit . There is also talk of a sale of either a battleship or a battlecruiser to the Netherlands.

In view of the sale of the warships to foreign powers Germany is reducing its tonnage requirements. It has once again put forward a request for 450,000 tons but has proposed that Great Britain and the US Increase their tonnage to 675,000. Germany would consider putting two of its older battleships in a reserve/mothballed fleet.

The US government has agreed to the German proposal to adjust the limits and after consulting with the British has raised the limits proposed for the US and Great Britain to 695,000 tons. France, Italy, Austria -Hungary and Russia have all been given 185,000 and Japan has been given 250,000 tons.
The German Naval High Command plans are to replace the older Battlecruisers with the newer ones that are currently under construction. This will mean that the majority of German Capital ships will be armed with the 13.8 insh or 15 in cun rather than the 12" gun.

Great Britain has offered to give Australia the Battlecruiser Lion and New Zealand the Battlecruiser Princess Royal as replacement for the older battlecruisers Australia and New Zealand, which would be scrapped. Both ships would be renamed and the British government and the Commonwealth would share the cost of improvements to both shios.
Under the current plans the following class would b scrapped: Bellerophon, St Vincient, Invincible, Indefatligable. Also on the possible list for scrapping are the Colossus class and the damaged Audacious. The Battleship King George V has been offered to Canada as a replacement for thee Canada, which has been returned to Chile. The Agincourt has been offer for sale to Brazil.

Comments/ Suggestions

 

[chris N]

The agreement received provisional approval and was now to be submitted to the respective governments. Japan's naval chiefs demanded that the Japanes diplomats go back and ask for changes. 250,000 tons was too little for the Japanese. They demanded at least 350,000 tons. It was unlikely that the Americans would agree to that much but the Japanese diplomats approached the British for help. The British agreed to do what they could but their heart was not in it. The Americans agreed to increase the Japanese to 275,000 and would then be willing to discuss possible changes at the next conference in 1930.