Zimmerman denies the telegram

[Ohfshkssgb]

I bet you if the October revolution failed people would say shit like "why would Russia fall to revolution they were winning. Ignoring the fact that wasn't their first revolution.

Eh what? Russia was losing disastrously that was what caused the Revolution in the first. You don't seem to have heard of the Keresnky offensive. Germany already conquered the richest regions of Russia

You do know where the phrase Stab in the back comes from right? Yes, I'm aware of the tale from King Arthur.

Stab in back myth only believed because Germany won the Eastern front whereas Entente never even reached the German border. In the eyes of the public Germany never lost the war

 

[Dorknought]

And as said, I personaly, rate the financial situation of the British / Entente less rosy then you.

At the point of the CP collapse, the Ottoman's and the Austro-Hungarians had also reached Russian levels of 'completely fucked' to the point that no matter how well the Germans were 'pulling out/withdrawing/advancing to the rear' of France in 'good order' the Entente armies were outflanking the bulk of the German army from the south.

 

[Ohfshkssgb]

In OTL. This site is for discussion of alternate history.

Yet your idea belongs in the ASB section

How do you know this? With such sun-rises-in-the-east-and-water-runs-downhill certainty? Could there just possibly be, at some future date, a confluence of bad policies, toxic personalities, and global economic conditions that could bring down the Empire?

It would hardly be the first time in history that a previously successful regime blundered into discredit and popular repudiation.

How can Germany be economically worse and politically unstable in TTL than OTL when haven't lost the war, won't be paying debt and reparations but receiving them ? Globalization of the great depression only came because Germany using American loans to pay reperations to UK and France who used it to pay back American loans creating a global cycle.

 

[Coulsdon Eagle]

My fault, you are right, third language, sorry.

What I meant was, if we can delay the German decision for USW until the Russian revolution begins, then, maybe, the Germans focus on getting Russia out of the war as the way to victory, rather than hoping to starve the UK before the US could affect the course of the war.

Mine was a no USW scenario.

Ah - I see. My apologies.

No USW does give Germany a greater chance. As does delayed USW, but IMHO only marginally, as the later US entry will remove the bankruptcy issues for Britain (at least until after the war!) and given how long the US build-up took I suspect the Entente will hold on.

Your no USW is conceivable and, as we know, the dice of war do add uncertainty!

 

[Dorknought]

How can Germany be economically worse and politically unstable in TTL than OTL when haven't lost the war, won't be paying debt and reparations but receiving them ?

Because they wont get the reparations and wont have the ability to hyper-inflate away the internal debt like they did OTL.

 

[Ohfshkssgb]

Because they wont get the reparations

Why not ?

 

[Dorknought]

Why not ?

It requires German boots in London to gain the reparations at the scale that Germany needs to pay off the bonds purchased by the German people. OTL this was done by wrecking the economy with hyper-inflation and wiping out internal German debt but also savings.

Its the fundamental reason why everyone kept fighting - no one could afford to pick up the can for losing.

 

[Ohfshkssgb]

It requires German boots in London to gain the reparations at the scale that Germany needs to pay off the bonds purchased by the German people. OTL this was done by wrecking the economy with hyper-inflation and wiping out internal German debt but also savings.

Its the fundamental reason why everyone kept fighting - no one could afford to pick up the can for losing.

No the reperations from France and Russia will suffice

 

[Dorknought]

No the reperations from France and Russia will suffice

 

[Ohfshkssgb]

Nonsense. If France and Russia try this Germany takes will their precious metals at gunpoint just like it took money from French cities it occupied and grain from Ukraine

 

[Gnomepilled]

Are you talking this?

Don't you mean Julius Caesar?

It refers to an Arthurian legend about how the English conquered England.
Basically at the time Britain was dealing with an Irish invasion so the king of the Britons invited English mercenaries. These mercenaries believed the Britons were cowards so they started taking land for themselves.
Alarmed at this the King invited the mercenary leaders to a traditional peace talk at Stone Henge. What happened was the mercenaries hid their knives in their boots and killed all the British leaders.
The stab in the back was the idea that if the revolution never happened then Germany would have won.

 

[Ohfshkssgb]

Irish War of Independence won't happen because after Entente loses France to Germany and default on it's debt to America Britain will face financial collapse after America seizes Collaterals leading to a Landslide victory of the Labour party which supported Irish independence

 

[Ramontxo]

Nonsense. If France and Russia try this Germany takes will their precious metals at gunpoint just like it took money from French cities it occupied and grain from Ukraine

"28, 1946. 2 The German government's internal debt at the end of World War I was about 146 billion marks. the German total national income."
From:
'Debt and Democracy in Germany - Jstor"

I haven't been able to find the French and Russian Gold Reserves in 1914 but I doubt very much they would be enough.

 

[Ohfshkssgb]

"28, 1946. 2 The German government's internal debt at the end of World War I was about 146 billion marks. the German total national income."
From:
'Debt and Democracy in Germany - Jstor"

I haven't been able to find the French and Russian Gold Reserves in 1914 but I doubt very much they would be enough.

Not just the goverment's gold reserves but also private property. Germany had little problem seizing public property in occupation zones

 

[Ramontxo]

Not just the goverment's gold reserves but also private property. Germany had little problem seizing public property in occupation zones

In 1870 after Sedan the French Government dissolved. All that was needed was to occupy Paris and take control of the Country. Paris fought alone and by its own for two months, one week and three days. If the French Government surrender that is not the end, it is not even the beginning of the end, it would have been the end of the beginning. And of course occupying Russia so as to rob its citizens their possessions would have been a piece of cake...

 

[Ohfshkssgb]

If the French Government surrender that is not the end, it is not even the beginning of the end, it would have been the end of the beginning

Elaborate further

 

[Ramontxo]

Elaborate further

After the official end of the WW1 the war followed for years in Russia. If your hypothesis is that the UK abandoned the European mainland to its fate. That the French and Russian Governments surrender. Then IMHO it would be hell.

 

[Ohfshkssgb]

If your hypothesis is that the UK abandoned the European mainland to its fate.

I didn't say that. I mean that Britain will be forced out France by Germany. Russia surrendered before that because of the October Revolution.

 

[Ramontxo]

In any case in that situation imho the whole continent would go to hell. Germany has won the war but cannot pay back its debts to its own citizens. From France to Italy to Russia there is an Irregular war, revolution, whatever, that is going to follow for years and years.

 

[Jacarí]

And who could have been truly neutral? Basically all of the alternatives were as anti-Germany as you could get.

How so?