Yugoslavia and Greece without fascist invasion

[moro]

How would politics have developed in the Kingdom of Greece and the Kingdom of Yugoslavia without the fascists invading the two countries?
-would Yugoslavia be able to keep itself united under a monarchy rather than the OTL federation? I imagine that, without the atrocities in World War II, tensions would be much lessened.
-would the Greek monarchy survive? even though the pod is far from the rise of the colonels, I wanted to ask if the war had a positive or negative effect on the monarchy.

 

[prani]

-would Yugoslavia be able to keep itself united under a monarchy rather than the OTL federation? I imagine that, without the atrocities in World War II, tensions would be much lessened.

I don't know the specifics but the worst of Ustase would be butterflied and Bosnian Serb relations would be better. Would that be enough? To keep the monarchy? I don't know ? How would they hold off an invasion?

 

[nickmn]

The only thing that would be for certain in Greece's case is that society itself would be far less divided . No war against Italy and Germany means no occupation . No occupation means no need for resistance organizations . While EAM and ELAS were mainly led by communists , most of the members were rather apolitical and just wanted to fight against the occupier . It is extremely unlikely that something like that would form in peacetime . All that would most likely mean an avoidance of the truly devastating civil war that divided society for decades after it officially ended . It would also mean avoidance of the hundreds of thousands of deaths that happened during the wars and occupation periods . Generally , Greece would be in a much better place in 1950 than it was in our timeline . Would that peace and stability have prevented the dictatorship of the Colonels ? Possibly .

 

[Pauh the federalist]

Yugoslavia was going through internal reforms during this period. Up until this point the internal structure of Yugoslavia looked like this

But just before the axis invasion Yugoslavia was in the process of internal reforms to stabalize the kingdom and appese the croatians, the next largest ethnic group by redoing the banovina system

This new Banovina was supposed to include nearly all croatian ethnic land and come with increased autonomy to settel the croatian issue

Cvetković–Maček Agreement - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Banovina of Croatia - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Serbs where outraged by this agreement they so plans were drawn up to restructure the remaining Banovinas in order to appese the Serbs and finaly settle the internal issues between the 2 largest ethnicitys in the nation.

This later reform was never carried out due to the axis invasion and the croation reforms did not survive into the communist era so the biggest change of no axis invasion is both of these reforms are retained redrawing the internal borders and giving autonomy concessions to the croatians.

Banovina of Serbia - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[Lalli]

How would politics have developed in the Kingdom of Greece and the Kingdom of Yugoslavia without the fascists invading the two countries?
-would Yugoslavia be able to keep itself united under a monarchy rather than the OTL federation? I imagine that, without the atrocities in World War II, tensions would be much lessened.
-would the Greek monarchy survive? even though the pod is far from the rise of the colonels, I wanted to ask if the war had a positive or negative effect on the monarchy.

Probably depends what is happening in rest of Europe and why not invasion.

But for Yugoslavia survival would be still difficult. Without Ustache and Chetnicks Croats and Serbs have bit better relationships but Croatian nationalism and Serbian chauvinism would still cause some conflict unless Belgrade give some meaningful autonomy for Croats.

Greece would at least probably avoid its civil war which might help the country.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Wasn't Greece very polarized between Royalists and Venizelists?

 

[Lalli]

Wasn't Greece very polarized between Royalists and Venizelists?

I think so but without civil war this division might be smaller. And Greek monarchy survived yet almost 30 years after WW2 anyway so whatever changes in 1930's/1940's it probably should help pretty much.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

I think so but without civil war this division might be smaller. And Greek monarchy survived yet almost 30 years after WW2 anyway so whatever changes in 1930's/1940's it probably should help pretty much.

IDK, Communists vs everyone else also put the monarchy vs republic debate on the back burner, and the British and Americans explicitly backed the Royalists in exile during WWII and the civil war.

I think the Monarchy's fate could well be tied to that of the Metaxas regime.

 

[Evil Crusader]

I honestly believe Jugoslavia wouldn't become stronger, rather weaker, without being invaded. The compromise of 1939 convinced both groups the other would not be cowed into giving up overlapping demands, and neither France nor the UK were really going to help out them in case of a coalition attack by eager neighbors.
As for Greece, it could weather the storm by going fascist, probably. Spain managed to do it after all; they just had the poor luck of being seen by Mussolini as free real estate.

 

[rfmcdonald]

One thing important to clarify is whether Yugoslavia and Greece stay out of the war altogether, or if they get dragooned by the Axis as subordinate partners in ways not unlike Bulgaria.

 

[rfmcdonald]

I honestly believe Jugoslavia wouldn't become stronger, rather weaker, without being invaded. The compromise of 1939 convinced both groups the other would not be cowed into giving up overlapping demands, and neither France nor the UK were really going to help out them in case of a coalition attack by eager neighbors.
As for Greece, it could weather the storm by going fascist, probably. Spain managed to do it after all; they just had the poor luck of being seen by Mussolini as free real estate.

I do think that the Titoist resistance with its substantially real mythology of a successful multinational resistance to the Axis did give Yugoslavia a chance for survival, better than what the pre-war monarchy would have done never mind the Chetniks had they taken power.

It is not clear to me that a Croatian autonomous government would be more likely to cement Croatia within Yugoslavia or to provide an institutional basis for Croatian separatism. On balance, I think that if you have an existing Croatia with defined frontiers Croats generally would be less likely to try to align with an Axis (i.e. Italy) that had sweeping claims against Croatia. If Croats had control of Dalmatia even ultranationalists would be much less likely to give it up than they would be OTL.

A best-case scenario for Yugoslavia might involve the country staying out of the war as long as it could only to declare war against the Axis when it was weak, with the hope of territorial gains. How plausible that would be, and its consequences, is anyone's guess.

 

[Lalli]

One thing important to clarify is whether Yugoslavia and Greece stay out of the war altogether, or if they get dragooned by the Axis as subordinate partners in ways not unlike Bulgaria.

Or would there be WW2 at all? Yeah, it would be probably important to know what happens other places.

 

[rfmcdonald]

Best case scenario for the two countries, I can imagine them staying out of he war until the end, opportunistically getting involved at an Axis weak point to take claimed territories from Italy, and then having a relatively uncomplicated time taking part in the post-war boom that papers over their issues.

Worst-case, they get drafted into the Axis alongside their Balkan neighbours and get brought into the Soviet bloc.

Details matter hugely.

 

[Jiraiyathegallant]

Does Bulgaria get spared the war as well here?

 

[Pauh the federalist]

Does Bulgaria get spared the war as well here?

I would assume so since bulgaria would have no reason to join unless the axis invade romania or turkey for some reason. Alternatively if things proceed per otl with romania joining the axis I could see bulgaria joining the allies as a late opportunistic bid to claim Dobruja and the allies permitting them to keep it post war to prevent the communist world from having a monopoly on the Danube River.

Dobruja - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Honestly the allies might even offer it as the price for using bulgaria as a springboard for a reduced version of the Balkan strategy in order to cut off the only major natural oil supply the axis had access to in southern romania and keep the oil out of soviat hands post war by propping up a south romanian state based around the old borders of Wallachia.

Wallachia - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

WRT Greece: a significant knock-on is that Metaxas remains only the hated (by the Left) dictator until his death, which may come a few years later without the strain of the war. That's instead of him becoming something of a patriotic icon IOTL - because even the Left came to respect him somewhat for telling Mussolini where to stick his ultimatum. And to this day, Greeks of all persuasions celebrate Ημέρα «Όχι». (Epéteios tou Óchi, lit. 'Anniversary of the No'.)

So this would be possible:

Metaxas dies, and his regime falls (AFAIK there was no successor to keep it going). There is a major swing to Venizelism. The monarchy is discredited by its association with Metaxas, and is abolished soon after. (This is a parallel to Spain when Primo de Rivera fell.)

Also, the army gets no boost from its "upset win" over Italy, but remains tarnished by its support of Metaxas.

 

[Fehérvári]

Does Bulgaria get spared the war as well here?

Probably yes, I think. They would have no reason to join in, after all. The same goes to Hungary, probably. Without the invasion of Yugoslavia, the UK won't cut off diplomatic ties with Hungary and PM Teleki wouldn't kill himself either. Both of these details could keep Hungary out of the war. Romanians might still attack the Soviets alongside the Germans though, since they wanted to reclaim Bessarabia. Alternatively, they could issue an ultimatum to the Soviets (after the German attack) to hand back the territory without a fight (which either works or not).

 

[Lalli]

Probably yes, I think. They would have no reason to join in, after all. The same goes to Hungary, probably. Without the invasion of Yugoslavia, the UK won't cut off diplomatic ties with Hungary and PM Teleki wouldn't kill himself either. Both of these details could keep Hungary out of the war. Romanians might still attack the Soviets alongside the Germans though, since they wanted to reclaim Bessarabia. Alternatively, they could issue an ultimatum to the Soviets (after the German attack) to hand back the territory without a fight (which either works or not).

Would Romania invade Bessarabia since it couldn't be sure that Hungary is not going to invade Transylvania meanwhile?

IMO most plausible way is that there just simply is not WW2 at all. I am not sure if you can keep Yugoslavia and Greece out of WW2. Italy had lot of claims over Yugoslavia and Greece.

 

[Pauh the federalist]

Would Romania invade Bessarabia since it couldn't be sure that Hungary is not going to invade Transylvania meanwhile?

IMO most plausible way is that there just simply is not WW2 at all. I am not sure if you can keep Yugoslavia and Greece out of WW2. Italy had lot of claims over Yugoslavia and Greece.

Romania is in a similer position to finland where prior soviat aggression (takeing bessarabia in romanias case) is probably going to indirectly force them into barbarosa. As far as hungary bring allied to the germans provides a safety umbrella agenst hungary while staying out of the german alliance system is almost asking for a invasion once the germams start getting anxious about oil possibly even before otl case blue

Case Blue - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

in short romania has even more reson to join then finland because staying out invites invasion and also gives the germans a way to drag bulgaria into the axis even without yugoslavia by promising Dobruja so you are either getting a axis romania (most likely scinario) or a axis bulgaria.