Yo me bajo en Atocha: a Spanish political TLIAD

[Goldstein]

A PP Andalusia? Now this timeline has jumped the shark!

Kidding, just kidding, this timeline is great.

Thanks for the feedback. Actually, it became really close to happen IOTL. In 2012, the PP surpassed the PSOE in votes in Andalusia, but IU gave them support to rule. ITTL, both the PSOE and IU were eroded enough in 2015 for this not to happen. Yet, Granada mayor García Marín is, along Madrid mayor Garzón, one of the two reminders of the push IU experienced some years ago.

 

[Nanwe]

I see Murcia's predomiannce is Murcia has been destroyed. A new province, changing the name of the autonomy. Also the name of the COmunidad Valenciana was changed? That's interesting, because OTL it's the result of a compromise between Pais Valencià (left) and Reino de Valencia (right). The left must be really strong in there. I wonder how the State will deal with the increased presence of Valencian pan-Catalanists.

 

[Goldstein]

I see Murcia's predomiannce is Murcia has been destroyed. A new province, changing the name of the autonomy. Also the name of the COmunidad Valenciana was changed? That's interesting, because OTL it's the result of a compromise between Pais Valencià (left) and Reino de Valencia (right). The left must be really strong in there. I wonder how the State will deal with the increased presence of Valencian pan-Catalanists.

Well, when the PP governments imploded there, a big void was left, and the PSOE wasn't in conditions to reap the benefits... except in the city of Murcia, where Rosa Díez is popular. Yeah, the name changes are meant to reflect the big leftwards turn. DC just took the biprovincial proposal of Cartagena (which is big IOTL, just not outside Cartagena, but they're trying), and the name change is in line with how the far left calls the Region of Murcia IOTL (again, because Cartagena feels unconfortable with the name. Yeah, Cartagena is a real ass pain).

 

[V-J]

Very enjoyable TLIAD, Goldstein. I can't pretend I'm fully-clued up, so I can't offer the most incisive commentary, but Spanish politics are always welcome with a Hispanophile like me, even if I can only stand by and absorb at the moment.

 

[hsthompson]

Not at all. It's my fault, infact. Too used to see Junqueras...

Which is odd. The rise of Oriol Junqueras within ERC was somewhat unlikely.

Until he was picked up to be the list header for the European Parliament he was virtually unknown... except to history buffs who listen to Catalunya Ràdio.

He was a collaborator in their long running weekly history program En Guàrdia, and was the main force behind El nas de Cleòpatra which dealt mainly with alternate history - with some forays into future history. (Available on the Internet from Catalunya Ràdio's website, all in Catalan)

His being elected to the European Parliament killed the only alternate history radio show I knew of stone dead.

Perhaps ITTL he might get a jump into television via TV3... it wouldn't be the first radio show that gets "promoted".

 

[Goldstein]

Which is odd. The rise of Oriol Junqueras within ERC was somewhat unlikely.

Until he was picked up to be the list header for the European Parliament he was virtually unknown... except to history buffs who listen to Catalunya Ràdio.

He was a collaborator in their long running weekly history program En Guàrdia, and was the main force behind El nas de Cleòpatra which dealt mainly with alternate history - with some forays into future history. (Available on the Internet from Catalunya Ràdio's website, all in Catalan)

His being elected to the European Parliament killed the only alternate history radio show I knew of stone dead.

Perhaps ITTL he might get a jump into television via TV3... it wouldn't be the first radio show that gets "promoted".

Consider it canon.

 

[HappyCommie]

You forgot this one.
Please, be creative
BTW, a graet TL.

 

[Goldstein]

You forgot this one.
Please, be creative
BTW, a graet TL.

Oh, but the Cantabrian regionalists didn't make it to congress, and whatever I can say of Revilla ITTL is true IOTL. Now that's a politician one does not simply get rid of. I might give him weight in a future project.

 

[Lleibi]

With your permission, Goldstein, i've made my own poll with congress results in the wake of the next TTL elections

It's a very messy parliament!

PP(+UPN) - 106 escaños
PSOE - 90 escaños
DC - 66 escaños
IU - 24 escaños
UDC - 18 escaños
ERC - 13 escaños
PNV - 8 escaños
EE - 8 escaños
FA - 8 escaños
Foro - 6 escaños
CC - 3 escaños
CHA - 1 escaño

 

[Goldstein]

With your permission, Goldstein, i've made my own poll with congress results in the wake of the next TTL elections

It's a very messy parliament!

PP(+UPN) - 106 escaños
PSOE - 90 escaños
DC - 66 escaños
IU - 24 escaños
UDC - 18 escaños
ERC - 13 escaños
PNV - 8 escaños
EE - 8 escaños
FA - 8 escaños
Foro - 6 escaños
CC - 3 escaños
CHA - 1 escaño

I feel honored, but some details are off. ERC and IU wouldn't get that much (IU has plummeted at state level), and DC wouldn't get that little. It's my fault because I included that in a retcon, but CC is no more, for the same reasons the GIL is no more. And CHA didn't make it. Only the ten parties I described did (and it's the only thing I take for granted about the result; the actual share of seats is a mystery even for me). As for the rest, it could be a reasonable guessing. A PP-slanted one, but reasonable none the less.

 

[Lleibi]

I feel honored, but some details are off. ERC and IU wouldn't get that much (IU has plummeted at state level), and DC wouldn't get that little. It's my fault because I included that in a retcon, but CC is no more, for the same reasons the GIL is no more. And CHA didn't make it. Only the ten parties I described did (and it's the only thing I take for granted about the result; the actual share of seats is a mystery even for me). As for the rest, it could be a reasonable guessing. A PP-slanted one, but reasonable none the less.

Yeah, i see So IU's hold of the got more than half of it in Madrid, in fact i put it as most voted force, which probably shouldn't be fair.
Also yeah, in the provinces with 3-4 MPs i leaned to standard PP gains without adding some DC gains.

Re-tunning that would give us a PP with some 100, PSOE 95, DC 83 and IU 13. Then UDC 20, ERC 9, rest the same but without CC or CHA. It's a pity your butterflies cannot keep Labordeta alive longer hehe

What would be surprising is... no Mixed Group!

Also... when have polls ever gotten it right?

 

[Kurt_Steiner]

You forgot this one.
Please, be creative
BTW, a graet TL.

Indeed. Absolutely

 

[Kurt_Steiner]

After reading this TLIAD and the wonderful "Cantando las Cuarenta" I feel very tempted to do something of my own, mixing my black sense of humor and my dystopian allegories...

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

This was great, and the unusual format worked very well.

At some points I thought it would be a 2000's-punk timeline, which I think would be a first.

 

[Tocomocho]

Consider it canon.

Is Cuatro still a thing? I wonder if he could make a special with Iker Jiménez?

 

[Goldstein]

"ACTUALLY, WE DID START THE FIRE" (BONUS#2)



[FONT=&quot]June the 3rd, 2012[/FONT][FONT=&quot]: General election. PSOE, the most voted party, stands very far from the simple majority. The Summer Without a Government.[/FONT]

September the 12th, 2012: Zapatero-Errejón government agreement. The Betrayal.

September the 15th, 2012: The Association of Citizen Spaces (the confluence of former anti-war movements, the Association of Victims of the Mortgage, Attac Spain and several squatter movements) holds a meeting in Barcelona. The first draft of the Black Manifesto is written. Though it calls to peaceful civil disobedience, its tone is borderline violent due to the exasperation climate.

September the 17th, 2012: The website www.manifiestonegro.com is launched.

Between September the 20th and September the 26th, 2012: The Black Manifesto Facebook group becomes viral.

September 28th, 2012: Through online active surveys, the “Program of the 13 points” is drafted for the first time. It's meant to serve, along with the Manifesto, as a basis for a future series of demonstrations.

October the 7th, 2012: The Facebook Event “Rattle the Walls” is launched from Black Manifesto, calling for several marches that will culminate in the main squares of the main cities. All provincial and autonomous capitals of Spain will hold a march, plus Ferrol, Ponferrada, Gijón, Manresa, Alcalá de Henares, Jerez de la Frontera, Elche and Cartagena.

October the 14th, 2012 (DAY 0): Marches in the main cities. They turn out to be the most multitudinary demonstration in the history of Spain, surpassing even the 2006 anti-war marches. Takeover of main squares, first of the daily protests in front of the Catalan parliament. First camps and assemblies appear: the ones in Puerta del Sol and Catalonia Square will become the most iconic.

DAY 1: Violent encounters between hooded demonstators and Mossos de Esquadra throughout Barcelona. Three dead, including a policeman. The delegates of the assemblies do their best to distance themselves from the events, but the police’s attempts to dissolve the camps result in the throwing of tear gas. Stones, Molotov cocktails and frozen crystal bottles are thrown in exchange. Incidents happen first in Barcelona, and later that night they extend to Madrid, Seville, Zaragoza and Bilbao. All this is podcasted live from the so-called Revolution Squares. Clashes will continue the following day.

DAY 3: At midnight, the first Barricading Assemblies appear, as well as the first Watchmen. Calls to non-violence result in dismissal of many delegates and a takeover of elements of a more “direct action” kind. The Lugo and the Ciudad Real camps are dissolved by force in the middle of the night. By the next morning, most camps are surrounded by hundreds, when not thousands, of sympathizers willing to use force. Lootings in Barcelona ignite a three-way confrontation between looters, Riot Police sent by the Ministry of the Interior, and Watchmen. A significant part of the Riot Police and a small fraction of the Mossos turn against the rest of the security forces and offer to guard the Revolution Square. Madrid follows shortly thereafter, sparking a chain reaction. Total body count of the Hot Fall: 15 dead.

DAY 4: Most camps are barricaded, and the main ones are armed with non-lethal and small-caliber weaponry. Inhibitors of frequency are installed by the municipal governments, most of which are quickly hijacked and dismantled. Risk premium rises to 730 points. Ibex35 stock exchange rates plummet. Government forms an Emergency Cabinet. State of Alarm is declared. Airspace is militarized.

DAY 5: First Solidarity Networks in the main cities: small commerce starts to supply the camps in exchange for protection from looters. Defections keep increasing. Camps start to feel a demographic pressure of sorts, and think about gaining ground. The committee networks of the main camps start using the term “Front” to refer themselves, something which extends to other sympathizer groups of self-defense. Election of the first Militias. Violent skirmishes facing the Catalan Parliament result in the temporary dissolution of the protest. Total body count of the Hot Fall: 21 dead.

DAY 7: Second round of marches in the main capitals, this time unauthorized and with armed support. The Firemen Corps joins the marches. Fierce clashes between loyal and defector elements of the police. Avalanches of people result in smashed and suffocated people. New camps, militarized from the start, form in Paseo del Prado in Madrid, and Tetuan Square and Ciutadella Park in Barcelona, putting the Catalan Parliament in compromise. Minister of the Interior Rubalcaba resigns. A motion of censorship against Zapatero will be proposed the following day. Total body count: 53 dead.

DAY 9: The Battle of the Congress. The Militias tear the metal fences that surround the entries to the building while the MPs are evacuated. First gunshot exchanges. The Congress building is occupied, its inner furnishing is vandalized. It will spend the next week empty save for guarding Militiamen, and meanwhile, the executive retreats to a heavily guarded Moncloa Palace. Incendiary artifacts thrown against the front of an emptied Catalan parliament. The chief of the Mossos de Esquadra resigns. Total and final body count of the Hot Fall: 84 dead.

DAY 10: This would be called Zapatero’s Sad Night. The Prime Minister holds a meeting early in the morning with the Catalan president Duran I Lleida, where they discuss some CNI reports which indicate that, should he declare the State of Exception, there would be medium-high chances that part of the Military, heavily resented by budget cuts and the denial of their role in Iraq, would follow the police’s steps, and that means everything would be lost. That night, representatives from all levels of administration are sent to meet with the spokespeople of the Fronts. A night of celebration, in which the Dry Law is lifted in the camps save for Militiamen and Watchmen.

DAY 11: Negotiations stall due to intransigence in the Fronts' side. First serious signs of inner fracture.

DAYS 12-13: The heated Extraordinary Assemblies. The Moderates come back to power in the main camps, not without a bit of CNI help.

October 29th, 2012 (DAY 15): The Congress, by order of the Sol Front and as a gesture of good will, is handed back peacefully by the Militiamen, who surrender to the police knowing they won't get out of there alive otherwise. A round of talks between the State and autonomous governments on one hand, and the Front delegates on the other hand, will be held starting tomorrow morning. End of the Hot Fall. The beginning of the Compromise.

 

[Goldstein]

I was going for a first account of the Hot Fall initially, but finally decided a short, Old School approach. My work here is done. Unless you think the last addition spoils it all: in that case I will happily retcon or even delete it.

 

[Lleibi]

I was going for a first account of the Hot Fall initially, but finally decided a short, Old School approach. My work here is done. Unless you think the last addition spoils it all: in that case I will happily retcon or even delete it.

It's a good and detailed account. And it's necessary, the Compromise is a key point.

I still have problems picturing the police joining a "rebellion" rather than being happy for having the perfect chance to be "let loose" on civilian population

 

[Goldstein]

I still have problems picturing the police joining a "rebellion" rather than being happy for having the perfect chance to be "let loose" on civilian population

And yet, it has happened many times IOTL, in places where the police is not more humanitarian than in Spain, such as the United States, Thailand or Brazil. And mind that the OTL Euromaidan was even worse at many levels, just not in scale or speed of escalation. It's not a coincidence that the introduction was made of a rambling about the nature of revolutions: as I said, it wasn't my intention to make this TL dystopian per se (not better nor worse, just different, would be closer to what I aimed to), but one of the topics I explored is that the apex of frustration could have been even higher. The fact I'm not the most cheerful guy in the world had a lot to do with that

But yeah, being an important part of the TL and plot device, I was dubious about how people would react to it.

Finally, I'm aware that my TLIAD was relatively short, only a bit above half the size of Doc's TLIAWOS. This served as a training of sorts, as a way of seeing if I could make something coherent and enjoyable. Now that it seems that some members think this is the case, whatever I do in the future will be a more extended and dedicated work.

 

[Lleibi]

Finally, I'm aware that my TLIAD was relatively short, only a bit above half the size of Doc's TLIAWOS. This served as a training of sorts, as a way of seeing if I could make something coherent and enjoyable. Now that it seems that some members think this is the case, whatever I do in the future will be a more extended and dedicated work.

Was it you who had started that TL about Franco in the Vietnam war? That would be a cool concept to revisit Unless it wasn't you, or you just got bored with it.