WWII delayed, Germany suffers economic collapse

[DominusNovus]

Okay, we've discussed this before. That, if there was not WWII, Hitler's Germany would face severe economic hardships.

Well, lets say that happens. For whatever reason, his plans are continually stymied for another year or so. Then, the economy starts going south.

What happens? Can the Nazis shift the gears of their economy to keep it afloat? And if they do, what happens to their ability to wage a war against the world?

Or, what if they can't, and are faced with uprisings, rebellions, whatever? Civil war, or forced out of power in a coup, etc. etc.?

Meanwhile, what does everyone else do? Perhaps the Soviets take this time of German weakness to start tromping around gobbling up the smaller states. Does this lead to a war between the west and the Soviets? Perhaps either side bails out Germany to help them against the other?

Or, if the Nazi's are still hanging on by a thread (or better), they rally the population against the Soviet conquerers of their neighbors (especially if they go after Poland) and Hitler gets his war anyway.

 

[Michele]

Okay, we've discussed this before. That, if there was not WWII, Hitler's Germany would face severe economic hardships.

Well, lets say that happens. For whatever reason, his plans are continually stymied for another year or so. Then, the economy starts going south.

What happens?

The Nazis get some advance warning. Say the Reichsbank president tells Hitler he has to slash military spending, or there will be a domino effect of defaults, inflation, bankruptcies, panic, inflation etc.

So the Nazis can decide to cut military spending indeed - or gamble everything in a military adventure, even if, as you say, it would be stymied by the overall situation.

Now wait - that's what happened in OTL. Schacht sent the memo in January, two months later the Germans were in Prague where they found the Czech gold reserve.

That's what would happen.

 

[DominusNovus]

The Nazis get some advance warning. Say the Reichsbank president tells Hitler he has to slash military spending, or there will be a domino effect of defaults, inflation, bankruptcies, panic, inflation etc.

So the Nazis can decide to cut military spending indeed - or gamble everything in a military adventure, even if, as you say, it would be stymied by the overall situation.

Now wait - that's what happened in OTL. Schacht sent the memo in January, two months later the Germans were in Prague where they found the Czech gold reserve.

That's what would happen.

AFTER that.

 

[Michele]

AFTER that.

After Prague? Warsaw. That's OTL. The Czech gold gave some breathing time, nothing more. The alternative remained the same. And Hitler, unsurprisingly, made the same choice. Use the steel while it's still sharp, to get more gold.

 

[DominusNovus]

After Prague? Warsaw. That's OTL. The Czech gold gave some breathing time, nothing more. The alternative remained the same. And Hitler, unsurprisingly, made the same choice. Use the steel while it's still sharp, to get more gold.

You're getting on my nerves, you know. I know that he did that all. I'm saying that, for whatever reason, he doesn't get a chance to go after Poland.

 

[Johnrankins]

Assume the Soviets take Poland all on their own and Hitler has to take on the Red Army to take Poland and he feels he isn't ready for that.

 

[bouscher]

I believe that Hitler would have revealed the most terrifying weapons of WW2, meaning we could see armored convoys consisting of king tigers and MAUS super tanks, covered by 262's and other jet planes...I also wonder what if the Germans truly had UFO like crafts and what would have happened if they were deployed in combat.

 

[Earling]

Is the hardship dependent upon maintaining the considerable expenditure on arms?

 

[juanml82]

I believe that Hitler would have revealed the most terrifying weapons of WW2, meaning we could see armored convoys consisting of king tigers and MAUS super tanks, covered by 262's and other jet planes...I also wonder what if the Germans truly had UFO like crafts and what would have happened if they were deployed in combat.

But that took years of research. They can't even do it in the face of economical collapse. I guess they'll have to resign to conquer the world and seek peace with its neighbours... or attemp a serious alliance with the western powers to use their money to take on the soviets, specially if we assume that the USSR has anexed Polland

 

[Kalan]

Why should there be any problems? Just look around in our world an there is no single nation which hasn't so much debt that it is unable to pay them back, but there is no economic crash.

 

[Steffen]

Interesting idea. If Germany gets a running inflation again, we might see a break-up of the system. After 1923, stable prices and acceptable unemployment rates were the cornerstones of politics.

 

[Michel Van]

I Like that Idea

fact is that the Minister of Economic Hjalmar Schacht warned Hitler in 1937
that Third Reich is on the edge of Bancrupcy and Economic collabs in 1939

Hitler fires him and put who as new minister ?
HERMANN GÖRING
on that time he is:

Commander-in-Chief of the Luftwaffe.
Chief of forests and hunting of the Reich
Prime Ministers of Prussia
Minister of Economic
and has no sence at all how to his jobs....

later he was replaced by Walther Funk in 1938

but wat If Göring stay as Minister of Economic until 1940 ???

 

[Michele]

You're getting on my nerves, you know. I know that he did that all. I'm saying that, for whatever reason, he doesn't get a chance to go after Poland.

The reason is that your question is based on two false premises.

The first is that Hitler began WWII while in a favorable situation, and that, therefore, the existence of an unfavorable situation would be a requisite for the POD. The actual, OTL situation was not good. Both the French and the British had made it extremely clear they would not tolerate any further swashbuckling. Hitler went ahead nevertheless.

The second false premise is that, if faced by an even worse general situation (no Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact?) Hitler would have backed down. He would _not_ have chosen to wait, because, exactly as you posited, the economic situation would have forced on him either a crash or huge cuts in military spending. He would have rejected both and gambled on war, anyway.
He would _not_ have waited.

This is why I'm referring you to OTL.

 

[Michele]

I believe that Hitler would have revealed the most terrifying weapons of WW2, meaning we could see armored convoys consisting of king tigers and MAUS super tanks, covered by 262's and other jet planes...I also wonder what if the Germans truly had UFO like crafts and what would have happened if they were deployed in combat.

Magnificent. Now, going back down on Earth, paid with what, fueled with what? Where is Germany going to buy all the gas that a Maus guzzles, and with what money? As to the Me 262s, who's going to pay for the R&D?
Have you noticed that the initial post of this thread correctly points out that Germany was on the verge of bankruptcy when it was still fielding Panzer Is and Bf 109s?

 

[Michele]

Why should there be any problems? Just look around in our world an there is no single nation which hasn't so much debt that it is unable to pay them back, but there is no economic crash.

Study the history of Argentine's economy. Then reconsider.

 

[Michele]

I Like that Idea

fact is that the Minister of Economic Hjalmar Schacht warned Hitler in 1937

AFAIK, in January 1939. But if you have a reference to a 1937 warning, I'd like to know about it.

 

[Michele]

Assume the Soviets take Poland all on their own and Hitler has to take on the Red Army to take Poland and he feels he isn't ready for that.

An ASB assumption. The Soviet Union wasn't going to attack anyone on its own and without the complicity of those who could, otherwise, throw a spanner in the works.

But even considering it as a real possibility, I doubt Hitler wouldn't feel ready. The Red Army would eventually conquer all of Poland on its own, but not without a Winter War level of performance. Everybody would conclude that the Red Army was clay-footed giant, first of all of them, Hitler.

Additionally, the war on Poland itself was mainly intended to get access to the SU, for making war on it. Now that inconvenient obstacle is gone, and with it, its alliances in the West. Hitler would be positively happy.

 

[Wozza]

Okay, we've discussed this before. That, if there was not WWII, Hitler's Germany would face severe economic hardships.

Well, lets say that happens. For whatever reason, his plans are continually stymied for another year or so. Then, the economy starts going south.

What happens? Can the Nazis shift the gears of their economy to keep it afloat? And if they do, what happens to their ability to wage a war against the world?

Or, what if they can't, and are faced with uprisings, rebellions, whatever? Civil war, or forced out of power in a coup, etc. etc.?

Meanwhile, what does everyone else do? Perhaps the Soviets take this time of German weakness to start tromping around gobbling up the smaller states. Does this lead to a war between the west and the Soviets? Perhaps either side bails out Germany to help them against the other?

Or, if the Nazi's are still hanging on by a thread (or better), they rally the population against the Soviet conquerers of their neighbors (especially if they go after Poland) and Hitler gets his war anyway.

What timescale are we talking here? Germany can avert problems by simply reining back armaments production - something it kept doing anyway, because the goals set were so ludicrously high. The answer is that they did shift the gear. After the traumas from 1919-1932 Germans had relatively low material aspirations.

This pattern of arms production-export drives can continue for years, Germany will be an increasingly poor society compared to its western counterparts, but that need not be a problem - it would take decaded for that to cause internal problems.

Barring silly suggestions about superweapons there is a debate about whether more years of peace would see Germany pulling ahead of Britain and France or falling behind in terms of armaments. This is more of a political question than an economic one. In many ways Britain's rearmament programme remained domestically understretched, despite the sterling problems it caused.

I think a bigger issue is that Germany will inevitably fall substantially behind the Soviet Union in military terms.

 

[Michele]

What timescale are we talking here?

If one does indeed work out the various possible time frames, I think one has to conclude that this won't work, and Hitler will go to war in any case.

Let's work it backwards. Let's suppose the assessment that the situation is not favorable for war is made just before the actual beginning of the real war. That would be before September 1939, but after the creation of the Czech Protectorate.
That's too late. By that time, everybody is rearming like mad. The fall of Prague has removed the mask. The British are investing in every service, and have in practice reintroduced conscription – in time of so-called peace! The French are finally putting their act together, ordering new aircraft, developing adequate armored warfare doctrine and units. The Soviets are producing the T-34.
If Hitler decides not to go to war at this time, his chances of winning a war declared later will only decrease over time. He's aware of this and, even assuming he thinks the situation is for some reason unfavorable, he'll deem it will only get worse. He can't wait, and won't accept to stop for good with what he's collected this far.

So what if the decision has to be made earlier, say before March 1939 but after Munich. The decision in this case wouldn't be not to go to war, but rather not to annex what remained of Czechoslovakia. But no, this is impossible. Those MeFo bills are coming due. Many of them can be renewed until 1942, but other holders will want them paid, and the Reichsbank will be unable to.
So Prague has to be taken.

So, can the decision be made earlier? Yes. Hitler could decide the situation is unfavorable to annex the Sudeten. It's difficult to imagine the POD, since his previous bluffs and brinksmanship had paid nicely. But even if we find a likely reason, at this point this is another POD. It's no longer World War Two delayed.

As a final note, I wouldn't make too much of the fact that the Germans made outlandishly huge plans and then cut them back. That's what everybody else did, too. The Soviets planned to have the largest fleet in the world, the British wanted to order extravagant numbers of aircraft.

 

[MrP]

I believe that Hitler would have revealed the most terrifying weapons of WW2, meaning we could see armored convoys consisting of king tigers and MAUS super tanks, covered by 262's and other jet planes...I also wonder what if the Germans truly had UFO like crafts and what would have happened if they were deployed in combat.

Germany's deploying Mice without any money? Um, interesting. Then again, the Maus is a loony design. I'd be happy to face the Maus, since I'd use airpower or artillery against it. It's so bally slow that even the WWI Paris Gun could probably target it.