WWI if the USA never existed?

[Moctezuma1466]

How would WWI have ended if the USA never existed in the first place because the American Revolution either never happened or failed? So we probably have a bigger Mexico that never lost California, Texas etc. to the US either a spanish or french speaking Lousiana country or Lousiana was turned into a british colony or was given to the 13 colonies.

Let's say european history from 1776 is basically the same with napoleonic wars, 1848, german and italian unification and the july crisis. So WWI starts and goes on for several years. The main differences would be:

- Germany would have started unrestricted submarine warfare already in 1915 due to the US doesnt exist and they dont have to fear the USA joining the Allies? And a smaller TTL USA/13 colonies is still part of the british empire as a dominion so a smaller weaker US like Australia and Canada sending troops to europe?

- Less money for the allies due to them becoming almost bankrupt IOTL and with less money due to no american loans especially after 1917 when the US joined the allies?

- Germany wins due to no giant American aid saving the allies?

- Or the CP loose due to maybe a successful brusilov offensive or whatever. How would the peace treaties have looked like without the US being a part of the allies?

 

[mjwebb76]

I am not a hardcore believer in butterflies. For example, I am not one who will say that we can say with certainty that a person born more than nine months after a POD would not exist. I find it plausible that this person might exist or someone very close to them might exist.

However, I find it completely implausible to imagine that European history would go anything like it did for 150 years if there is no USA. For example, why would you expect the French Revolution to occur, and to result in the rise of Napoleon if you do not have the American Revolution as an example of a successful example of a liberal revolution. For that matter, why would you expect to have a Mexico (larger or otherwise) rather than have New Spain remain in some way affiliated with the Spanish crown.

 

[YYJ]

This is a pre-1900 POD.

But what if World War One with a United States that never separated from the British Empire? That means there is another English speaking Dominion that enters the war when Britain does. An industrial and resource powerhouse that by itself almost doubles the strength of the British Empire.

I would suggest Germany figures out other ways to get its needs met, since the disparity of force here is like Japan vs the US in WW2.

 

[ennobee]

It mostly depends on what happens to the region that OTL became the US. If it expanded in size and population like OTL but remained a British colony, 'it' would have immediately joined the war on Britain's side and the first 'Colonial American' troops would arrive at tht front in 1915, at about the same time as the Canadians and Australians. However with 1776 as a point of convergence, we may not be getting a British North America as big as the USA is today and we certainly would not get a nation that had the massive population of the 1917 US. As far as I can imagine, France might have still held on to the Louisiana/Mississippi territory and Spain, or Mexico might control everything South of New Orleans - like OTL's California and Texas... Provided Texas is not settled by the German Adelsverein and used by the Kaiserreich to dump its dissidents.

So yes, the butterflies are too enormous to get even an extremely broad view of the situation in 1914. As far as I know, Austria/Hungary could just stay out of tht Balcan in favor of expanding into South America and butterfly away the whole Sarajewo thingy

 

[Lalli]

Things either completely avoided ARW or Brits defeating rebels would change immediately very much. British politics would change, there probably wouldn't be French Revolution or much more peaceful one where France trasnfer towards constitutional monarchy with British system meaning no rise of Napoleon nor wars (at least not similar with OTL) in Europe and no rise of OTL 19th century nationalism. This means very different Germany and probably no united Italy. HRE would remain longer. This too would affect to Spanish colonial empire. Even North America would be very different depending what exactly happened in 1770's and later.

Yeah, it is just impossible keep history same with such POD. Better POD would be that USA just decides to be neutral on some reason.

 

[Dorknought]

A bigger Canada. Not sure how this helps the cp.

 

[the Imperium of Canada]

A bigger Canada. Not sure how this helps the cp.

They're almost certainly wouldn't be "Central Powers" in the first place given the divergence goes that far back

 

[DougM]

As noted by most here, this is a HUGE game changer and it changes it 130+ years before the time in question. Frankly no one can predict what a huge change will do over that length of time.
Various issues,
GB will politically be different internally and exterNelly.
GB will be wealthier.
France will have taken radically different directions as without getting into an extension of its wars with GB over France supporting the US revolution then France has more money. Add more money and no example of a successElul US Revolution and you probably don’t get a French Revolution, at least at the time it happened OTL.
No or a Different French Revolution means Napoleon Does not do his thing of attacking everyone.
No French invasion means Russia goes down a different track.
No French domination under Napoleon and you may get a different Germany if you get any Germany at all.

Etc Etc Etc.

This just creates huge clouded of butterflies and some are the size of Mothera. And the biggest butterflies are all directly in the area in politics that lead up to WW1 as we know it.

So you can’t make this big of a change and still get WW1 in any recognized way.
Remember WW1 as we know it was MOT a sure thing, Many little things could make it not happen at all. And other things make it turn out a lot different.
Heck if the only butterfly is that somehow the Gunnman is not where he was or the Driver dies not get lost and stop right there or the Crown Prince goes home after the first unsuccessful attack then The war may not happen. If Germany does nor form as we know it then Perhaps the emperor does not write the blank check. And that assume we have any Germany at all which frankly in a world with no US we may very well get no Germany,

So yeah this is ASB

 

[Dorknought]

They're almost certainly wouldn't be "Central Powers" in the first place given the divergence goes that far back

If there is no US then Columbus sails through the gap to India!

 

[Aluma]

I think OP just wanted a "No-US participation in WWI" but got a little confused

I mean it is possible to imagine how things would have gone in the european theater if the americans never intervened there and kept their focus on the Americas only without completely erasing them from existence

 

[Lalli]

I think OP just wanted a "No-US participation in WWI" but got a little confused

I mean it is possible to imagine how things would have gone in the european theater if the americans never intervened there and kept their focus on the Americas only without completely erasing them from existence

If OP would had wanted WW1 without USA simpliest way would had been Germany not beginning unrestricted submarine war and no Zimmermann Telegraph.

But it is indeed impossible to keep history exactly same without USA.

 

[Derek Pullem]

Does a British Empire with the resources of North America even care that much about who is the hegemon of mainland Europe in this scenario? Whilst the European powers will very much care on whose side the Empire is.

Paul Kennedy has his critics but by his reckoning the US+UK "national income" ALONE of $48billion in 1914 exceeds the $15 billion of Germany-Austria-Hungary by more than3:1. Industrial potential is 338:178, almost 2:1.

If UK aligns with France and Russia then industrial potential moves to 473 vs 178. Germany just wouldn't risk a war with that kind of imbalance of power. You may get local wars like in the 19th century but a World War isn't winnable for anyone except UK + NA and the rest of the world will know it.

Of course the idea that NA will remain the passive partner of UK for all this time is verging on ASB but that is the premise of the OP. I also doubt that Texas and California would remain Mexican, they are just too valuable for the British to ignore. The border with Mexico may well be further North leaving much of West Texas, Arizona and New Mexico as Mexican but the British will want the gold and silver in the Rockies and California and land North of OTL Los Angeles. But that would have minimal impact on NA economy.

 

[lukedalton]

Well regarding what can NA add to the British Empire:
1) Will Russia sell Alaska to the British?
2) Will the UK go to war with Mexico for Texas and California?
3) Will Texas even decide to be part of the British Empire or prefer independence if things go similar to OTL?
4) Will France decide to sell Luisiana to the British?
5) How Slavery will be dealt?
6) There is the question of immigration, will be the same of OTL without the USA?
7) How the native are dealt?
8) What the consequences for France as it had spent lot of money to support the revolutionaries and they failed? (This can still prompt the revolution more or less on schedule)
So in general i doubt that ITTL history will resemble our

 

[Derek Pullem]

Well regarding what can NA add to the British Empire:
1) Will Russia sell Alaska to the British? Unlikely
2) Will the UK go to war with Mexico for Texas and California? Yes but not for Arizona and New Mexico
3) Will Texas even decide to be part of the British Empire or prefer independence if things go similar to OTL? Irrelevant - see Boer War pt 1 and pt 2
4) Will France decide to sell Luisiana to the British? It's Spanish and probably yes during one of Spain's interminable civil wars
5) How Slavery will be dealt? Quicker than OTL and replaced with indentured labour
6) There is the question of immigration, will be the same of OTL without the USA? Debatable - less at the start of the 19th but likely growing as Irish Famine and industrial revolution displaces agricultural labour
7) How the native are dealt? Slightly better than OTL
8) What the consequences for France as it had spent lot of money to support the revolutionaries and they failed? (This can still prompt the revolution more or less on schedule) Likely same or earlier
So in general i doubt that ITTL history will resemble our Agreed

 

[Gillan1220]

Too much butterflies to have a recognizable WWI. Closest I can think of this scenario is when there are two Americas (USA and CSA) sharing the continent because the CSA never reunified, thus leading to a different WWI, WWII, and 20th century as a whole.

 

[Lalli]

1) Will Russia sell Alaska to the British?

Probably not.

2) Will the UK go to war with Mexico for Texas and California?

It could go either way, depending would Britain want Texas and rest of North Mexico, assuming that Mexico even becomes independent ITTL.

3) Will Texas even decide to be part of the British Empire or prefer independence if things go similar to OTL?

Probably not voluntarely if it still becomes slave holding nation and Britain still abolish slavery about same time as in OTL. And Texans might are ideologically too different from Brits. And if Britain want take Texas they are not going to ask whether they want join or not.

4) Will France decide to sell Luisiana to the British?

On that time France even didn't own Louisiana. It probably would be claimed by Spain. And Spain hardly is going to sell that to Britain.

5) How Slavery will be dealt?

It still could take many ways.

6) There is the question of immigration, will be the same of OTL without the USA?

I would imaginate that being same what Canada had.

7) How the native are dealt?

Probably much better but still not really nicely.

8) What the consequences for France as it had spent lot of money to support the revolutionaries and they failed? (This can still
prompt the revolution more or less on schedule)
So in general i doubt that ITTL history will resemble our

France probably wouldn't had spent that much money if any for helping Americans. So in 1789 France is not that dire condition. There is probably still lot of problems with economy and badly outdated feudalist system but these are probably solved betterly.

 

[DougM]

If you want a No US in WW1 you can get that through many different ways. Heck the US could simply remain truly neutral. And only sell for cold hard cash on a cash and carry basis. If US shipping stays out of the way, and the US cracks down on GB‘s propaganda and keeps US banks and Companies from lending money and what have you then the US can easily stay out of the war. But the government was pro GB and the companies and the banks and the rich were pro profit so they tossed neutrality out the window.

The OP however wanted a US is part of GB timeline. Which you cant have and still get WW1 as to many butterflies would probably eliminate Germany and definitely change WW1 beyond recognition.

 

[YYJ]

This OP is kind of like: What if Hitler had a time machine and saw that Germany was going to run low on fuel, so Germany invented nuclear power in the 1930s to run their synthetic oil facilities. The wider implication of the POD dwarf the intended changes the OP sets out to achieve.

 

[Michel Van]

looking into failed American Revolution, could let to complete different Europe what butterfly WW1 away.

But for senario sake how would look like ?
Certain are, instead of USA, exist the Dominion of North America and Kingdom of Canada, under rule of British King.
Mean the British has more resource and man power for BEF, to bleed out the Germans forces at Westfront.
Could shorten duration of WW1

 

[Galba Otho Vitelius]

I first thought the OP meant that the landmass of the United States and the people living there didn't exist, which would be a geologic POD and be both ASB and pre-1900.

But I suppose you could get a post-1900 POD where the United States goes into failed state status similar to contemporary Mexico. The POD could be something to do with the McKinley assassination and its effects unfolding differently. But of course even this would likely butterfly World War I as we know it away.