WW2 Britain Splendid Isolationism

In a world where Winston Churchill successfully lead a Military Coup in 1933 and cut off ties to continental affairs, what could happen? Me and my friends play an alt history rpg we made and this is the background I am playing off of. Any tips? Thoughts?
 
If the UK isn't guaranteeing Polish safety in 1939 then I think France probably backs down and doesn't declare war when Germany invades.

In which case, there's a good chance that Germany doesn't go west at all and their next invasion is Barbarossa once they feel ready. If the UK and France don't declare war and aren't making any obvious moves then I don't see any reason for Germany to go west or into the Balkans and North Africa at all.
 
Winston would be most unlikely to be isolationist.If anything a coup led by him leads to much faster, well financed re armament and much more draconian attitudes towards Nazi Germany
 

Garrison

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In a world where Winston Churchill successfully lead a Military Coup in 1933 and cut off ties to continental affairs, what could happen? Me and my friends play an alt history rpg we made and this is the background I am playing off of. Any tips? Thoughts?
The first thought is that this is completely implausible. The Low Countries being in friendly/neutral hands is vital to British interests and of course Churchill was an ardent believer in parliamentary democracy, as well as being marginalized on the back benches throughout the 1930s. There is also zero chance the British armed forces would ever contemplate a coup. In short not one part of this idea makes sense.
 
Winston would be most unlikely to be isolationist.If anything a coup led by him leads to much faster, well financed re armament and much more draconian attitudes towards Nazi Germany
Agreed.

You want an isolationist UK, you will need some-one else ... problem is, maintaining the British Emipre (against the averous intent of every other European power) means ensuring no one European power gets 'too big' to challenge British interests. So almost no-one who is anywhere near to 'holding the reigns of power' is going to be 'isolationist' .. so there are very few candidates ..

On the other hand, Churchill was so outspoken that I'm betting it would be easy enough to find some POD that results in him being pushed out of politics permently.

No Churchill in the 1930's to keep banging on about what a threat Hitler was might/could well make a big difference (especially as most everyone else would say the Soviets are the bigger threat)
 
Mosley's the obvious man but if he did succeed in mounting a successful coup ,which is really pushing it especially very early 30's, then he's going to join forces with all the other Fascist forces in Europe so won't be isolationist in that sense.
looking at British history ,they have never been isolationist because it just doesn't serve their interests at all.Divide and rule was always the order of the day vis a vis Europe because that's where the threat comes from.To be in isolation would just encourage the European powers to gang up against her which was Napoleon's strategy .
 
Mosley's the obvious man but if he did succeed in mounting a successful coup ,which is really pushing it especially very early 30's, then he's going to join forces with all the other Fascist forces in Europe so won't be isolationist in that sense.
looking at British history ,they have never been isolationist because it just doesn't serve their interests at all.Divide and rule was always the order of the day vis a vis Europe because that's where the threat comes from.To be in isolation would just encourage the European powers to gang up against her which was Napoleon's strategy .
Mosely is too weak politically to be a viable PM and would not be able to engineer a coup without being able to demonstrate enough political clout. The only credible way to get military backing would be a threat of unilateral disarmament including of the army and navy by a pacifist government. In that case there would be plenty of other much more popular politicians who would more likely prefer the ballot box and work to force a (likely successful) no confidence vote.
 
Also even a hardcore right-wing government that hates communism and has some sympathy for fascism, would never accept Germany occupying the Low Countries or France, or even significantly expanding the KM. Because British right and far-right are still nationalist, meaning they prioritize their own national and imperial interests. Just like Mussolini blocked the Anschluss until 1938 (because even if Rome and Berlin had similar ideologies, their interests competed).

So, for an isolationist Britain that doesn't oppose the Reich to work, Germany has to go exclusively east. And preferably, explicitly renounce reconquest of Alsace-Moselle, not build up Heer and Luftwaffe forces in the west, and not expand the KM.
 
Also even a hardcore right-wing government that hates communism and has some sympathy for fascism, would never accept Germany occupying the Low Countries or France, or even significantly expanding the KM. Because British right and far-right are still nationalist, meaning they prioritize their own national and imperial interests. Just like Mussolini blocked the Anschluss until 1938 (because even if Rome and Berlin had similar ideologies, their interests competed).

So, for an isolationist Britain that doesn't oppose the Reich to work, Germany has to go exclusively east. And preferably, explicitly renounce reconquest of Alsace-Moselle, not build up Heer and Luftwaffe forces in the west, and not expand the KM.
Indeed. And for that to work you'd have to get rid of Hitler who wanted vengeance of France, (although other more patient nazis could lead the party and save France for later). But you'd also need to alienate Poland from France and Britain. It's not easy to see how but it could make an interesting twist, as it would then influence attitudes of Romania, Hungary and Czechoslovakia.
 
Germany wouldn't risk a major war in the east while leaving a known enemy on its west, the logic of Hitler's expansionism required France to be subdued first.
 
Germany wouldn't risk a major war in the east while leaving a known enemy on its west, the logic of Hitler's expansionism required France to be subdued first.
Hitler was known for calculated, high-risk high-reward, gambles.

So he might gamble on not provoking or attacking directly France, the rewards being having only one front (East) to deal with, as well as the benevolent neutrality or maybe even friendship of Britain (he saw the British as racial siblings and natural allies). And short term, the reward would be that Britain would abandon Poland (and France would probably not intervene for Poland without Britain).

The mid-term risk being, of course, that France waits until the Heer is knee deep in Russia, and attacks Germany on its rear then.

But in the eyes of Nazi dignitaries, that risk would be mitigated by the idea that the "Russian hordes", being Slavic subhumans, would collapse after the first big German offensive, and the Russian campaign would be wrapped in months, leaving Germany ready for any French opportunistic attack.

Basically, Hitler making the "we should appease the Anglo-French, and focus exclusively on my Lebensraum dreams" calculation is plausible. Whether it would actually work out for him is another matter.
 
Hitler was known for calculated, high-risk high-reward, gambles.

So he might gamble on not provoking or attacking directly France, the rewards being having only one front (East) to deal with, as well as the benevolent neutrality or maybe even friendship of Britain (he saw the British as racial siblings and natural allies). And short term, the reward would be that Britain would abandon Poland (and France would probably not intervene for Poland without Britain).

The mid-term risk being, of course, that France waits until the Heer is knee deep in Russia, and attacks Germany on its rear then.

But in the eyes of Nazi dignitaries, that risk would be mitigated by the idea that the "Russian hordes", being Slavic subhumans, would collapse after the first big German offensive, and the Russian campaign would be wrapped in months, leaving Germany ready for any French opportunistic attack.

Basically, Hitler making the "we should appease the Anglo-French, and focus exclusively on my Lebensraum dreams" calculation is plausible. Whether it would actually work out for him is another matter.
That creates the possibility that Germany leaves a token force of the French border, only to be overrun by an initially token French invasion once alt-Barbarossa is underway.

More realistically, Germany would likely have to avoid the MR Pact in any form of this scenario which makes it nearly impossible to prepare for and take on Poland without precipitating conflict with the Soviets.
 
That creates the possibility that Germany leaves a token force of the French border, only to be overrun by an initially token French invasion once alt-Barbarossa is underway.

More realistically, Germany would likely have to avoid the MR Pact in any form of this scenario which makes it nearly impossible to prepare for and take on Poland without precipitating conflict with the Soviets.
Indeed.

They might manage to force convince Poland to ally itself with Germany (and give away Dantzig in return for the future return of Lithuania) and help in an invasion of the USSR.

Of course, IOTL the Poles refused this proposal as they thought that once the Germans were invited in (as "allies") they would never leave, and they were right, but the Poles feared the Russians just as much if not more, refusing any Russian help even if they were invaded by Germany (which is one of the reasons why Stalin accepted the M-R Pact).

So, in a world where the British (and the French, who aren't daring enough to face Berlin without London's backing) have officially abandoned Poland, the Poles may accept such a proposal out of despair... knowing that they accept Hitler's friendship "or else".

But even then, invading Soviet Union would be extremely hard. Yes, the Soviets have less years of preparedness, but on the other hand, the Germans have less experience, can't loot the industry and transportation network of France / Low Countries to bolster their campaign logistics, and don't have surprise effect.

And more importantly, no matter how successful they are in Russia, even if the Soviets are so crippled by the Purges and so unprepared to the novelty of Blitzkrieg that Germans take Moscow, Leningrad and Stalingrad in three months... well, then Germans have France in their backs.

France... and Britain.

I know that OP is about British "Splendid Isolationism", but if the Germans are wildly successful in Russia, the British won't want them to win (they want both sides to lose), especially if it leads to a giant German industrial empire spanning to the Urals with dozens of millions of slaves and endless raw resources, that will then inevitably build up its navy and air force to challenge the British imperial power. Nope. Regardless of ideological alignment, the British government will prioritize British interests (even -maybe especially- if it's a far-right nationalist government). And the obvious British interest will always be to smack down the emerging continental superpower while it's still distracted, and before it's well-established and able to turn west.

So, either the Russians and Germans find themselves in a long grinding war (that bleeds them both, with the French and British delivering weapons to both sides, but always more to the side that seems to be losing, as it wouldn't do if the war ends too quickly...). It's especially likely if the Nazis are wary of a French opportunistic attack, and keep a truly large defence force in the west (which would be a smart choice, but would also mean less available forces in the east...).

Or the Germans have a stunning success and the Heer goes deep into Russia, but then some unlucky casus belli is found by Paris and London (what about a merchant ship bound to Murmansk that got sunk, and the Western Allies claim it was sunk in international waters...), and stab distracted Germany in the back.
 
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In a world where Winston Churchill successfully lead a Military Coup in 1933 and cut off ties to continental affairs, what could happen? Me and my friends play an alt history rpg we made and this is the background I am playing off of. Any tips? Thoughts?
Have you considered an alternate King Edward. Maybe Wallis Simpson leaves him or dies. Maybe you have a red scare event (perhaps a labour dispute gets out of hand) and a bitter Edward is swayed or manipulated by extreme ends of the Conservatives and the BUF into becoming a mechanism for them to attain power and influence. The King causes constitutional crises by dissolving parliament and maybe Churchill is also manipulated in some manner into serving the Kings interests. The resulting crisis ends badly and sees a semi authoritarian government cracking down on labour movements and keeping Britain out of any potential wars on the continent, despite long standing British policy.

It's not an airtight idea, but if its for an RPG, maybe you can be vague on the specifics? France is subsequently abandoned as the British government seeks reconciliation with Germany.
 
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