WW1 Russian Provisional government victory

[herkles]

Hello,

So as I am listening to the Russian Revolution podcast by Mike Duncan, a curious thought occurred to me. If Russia stayed part of the Allies, perhaps the June offensive was actually successful, what would Russia want out of the peace treaty with the central powers? As they would remain a member of the allied powers, what objectives did they want?

Would Pavel Milyukov push for the conquest of Constantinople? Would the treaties with the French and British to divide the Middle East still be followed through as IIRC the Russians had made plans there? What would they do to Germany and the Austrians? What would be the fate of Poland?

Domestically, what does a victory in ww1 mean for the Provisional Government of Russia? I assume it secures influence and prestige for the provisional government and likely butterflies away the October revolution. But what other effects does this bring?

So what would this victory mean?

 

[Catspoke]

OR maybe the Russians just didn't do the OTL Kerensky offensive and just stayed in the line on defense until the final peace.

But going with the fact the Russians are in on the winning side regardless with a government treated as friendly by the west.

Perhaps in the wars final days the Russians land at Constantinople, I think it would be better to secure their claim if they were there. If the Russians are active and participating a Sevres style take down of the Turkish state seems likely.

Poland would be interesting then. Russia just marches back in and Poland is not independent????? Would Russia claim German Polish areas like Poznan(Posen), would the Poles there just want to stay in Germany.

Same story with Austrian Galicia, does Russia get those Poles and Ukrainians too????

Perhaps Russia is ok with picking up the Ukrainian areas of Austrian Galicia, Armenia and Constantinople in exchange for an independent Poland?????

If the provisional government survives, I would have to think WW2 is avoided and the cold war and the world is a better place (for most).

 

[michael1]

Russian war aims were (in what I think is the correct order)
1. Constantinople
2. Galicia (or parts of). Likely in some newly established Kingdom/Duchy of Poland under Russian suzerainty)
3. Prussia and Silesia (or parts of)

How much they get of this depends on the magnitude of the victory. If Russia is in a state of even semi-civil war and victory follows US entry they get very little, if any of this, and might be lucky to hang onto Warsaw. On the other hand, if they remain an active participant and the allies are less dependent for the victory on the US (including financially) then they might get most of this.

The interesting effects of no Bolshevik revolution is on the position of France. France now has options other than dependence on the UK and the US, while Germany doesn't really have a likely ally to the East (due to territorial losses). Something like the post WW2 cold war is possible (without the US), with an alliance between France, Germany and the UK. These are all democracies with no real territorial claims against each other and a fear of Russia (France has less fear). Alternatively, a continuing Franco-Russian alliance is also possible against either Germany or the UK or both. It is even possible that the spread of democracy leads to sweetness and light and peace all around.

 

[michael1]

As for whether victory in ww1 means no bolshevik revolution, I think it really depends what happens after victory. Without land redistribution I think it is extremely likely that the returning soldiers demand for land and better working conditions leads to some sort of revolution.

I also think that it's extremely hard to see how a war time bolshevik revolution is avoided if Russia remains in the war until November 1918, even if it stands on the defensive.

 

[SlideAway]

The Provisional Government had already endorsed an independent Poland. I doubt they'd push for Constantinople. They're likely to either go for no annexations or annexation of Galicia/Lviv only. The other area they'd probably call go for annexations would be in Northeastern Turkey for a greater Armenia (if not quite the boundaries of Wilsonian Armenia). "No annexations" and "down with imperialism" were actually lines being pushed by liberals and socialists in pretty much all the combatant countries. (Witness the Reichstag peace resolution, Italian liberals denouncing the secret Treaty of London when it was leaked, etc.), and was something the Provisional Government also proclaimed.

My guess is they'd be focused on restricting German power, and having a small Poland as a buffer state. This probably means an eastern Polish boundary similar to the Curzon line (or the Nazi-Soviet line post-Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact), and an eastern German boundary similar to Versailles but short of the plebescite zones in Upper Silesia and Masuria/East Prussia. Or maybe they'd push for a smaller East Prussia that is internationalized alongside Danzig.

 

[mjwebb76]

I am going to suggest the largest impact would be on the Western Front. For simplicity, let's assume the June Offensive is moderately successful, in that it is a bit better than OTL but does not destroy Austria, achieve a massive breakthrough etc. These events would create massive butterflies. Further assume that Lenin is irrelevant (killed in July unsuccessful in Oct/Nov etc) so that the Provisional Government is able to muddle through to the end of the war. As such Russia would have a hard time claiming the straits or claiming all of Poland if they do not have the troops on the ground to enforce their claim.

However, things in the west will be dramatically different (and dramatically worse for Germany). Hindenburg/Luddendorf will have fewer resources for the Spring 1918 offensive (since they must send some resources east). However, they know they must take their last shot before the Americans truly arrive in force. Perhaps this reality leads to some type of negotiated peace. However, given their personality (particularly Luddendorf) I am going with a less successful Spring offensive leading to an earlier and even more complete collapse of the German army. However, unlike our timeline, where the allies had an incentive to allow the intact German army to get back to Germany to keep the communists from taking over, the allies would have every incentive to destroy the German army with fresh American troops. Thus, the stab-in-the-back myth has no currency.

Over the longer term, I wonder if Russia has a similar experience to Italy (being on the winning side but receiving little in the peace) and travels down a similar path to Fascism.

 

[Karelian]

The Straits were the price Stavka wanted all along.

Bubnov Plan from March 1917 envisioned three divisions making a surprise landing straight to the the Bosporus fortified region, supported by the entire Black Sea fleet, since the fleet now had enough transport vessels (built during the war) to transport an entire army corps at once, and experience had been acquired in successful amphibious warfare during the operations against Trebizond. By spring 1917 the Ottomans had two reserve divisions available for the entire Bosporus region. Russia had three divisions available near Odessa that had done nothing but prepared for this operation for months.

On February 21st/March 6th 1917 Foreign Minister Pokrovskii submitted a memorandum to Stavka, recommending the landing to commence as soon as possible to ensure that Russia would not be deprived of her prize by her allies in a case the war ended that year. Denikin was positive, and together with Kolchak they were organizing transports for a Bosphorus descent as soon as Alekseev would provide them troops from the main front. But before Stavka could reply for Pokrovskii, revolution broke out in Petrograd.

The planning continued afterwards as well, though, and provided that Kerensky opts to go for the Straits instead of the June Offensive - who knows, they might even pull it off.

 

[Historicaltrolling]

The Straits were the price Stavka wanted all along.

Bubnov Plan from March 1917 envisioned three divisions making a surprise landing straight to the the Bosporus fortified region, supported by the entire Black Sea fleet, since the fleet now had enough transport vessels (built during the war) to transport an entire army corps at once, and experience had been acquired in successful amphibious warfare during the operations against Trebizond. By spring 1917 the Ottomans had two reserve divisions available for the entire Bosporus region. Russia had three divisions available near Odessa that had done nothing but prepared for this operation for months.

On February 21st/March 6th 1917 Foreign Minister Pokrovskii submitted a memorandum to Stavka, recommending the landing to commence as soon as possible to ensure that Russia would not be deprived of her prize by her allies in a case the war ended that year. Denikin was positive, and together with Kolchak they were organizing transports for a Bosphorus descent as soon as Alekseev would provide them troops from the main front. But before Stavka could reply for Pokrovskii, revolution broke out in Petrograd.

The planning continued afterwards as well, though, and provided that Kerensky opts to go for the Straits instead of the June Offensive - who knows, they might even pull it off.

This has been discussed in earlier threads. Would love to see a timeline on this idea

 

[kham_coc]

The Provisional Government had already endorsed an independent Poland. I doubt they'd push for Constantinople. They're likely to either go for no annexations or annexation of Galicia/Lviv only. The other area they'd probably call go for annexations would be in Northeastern Turkey for a greater Armenia (if not quite the boundaries of Wilsonian Armenia). "No annexations" and "down with imperialism" were actually lines being pushed by liberals and socialists in pretty much all the combatant countries. (Witness the Reichstag peace resolution, Italian liberals denouncing the secret Treaty of London when it was leaked, etc.), and was something the Provisional Government also proclaimed.

My guess is they'd be focused on restricting German power, and having a small Poland as a buffer state. This probably means an eastern Polish boundary similar to the Curzon line (or the Nazi-Soviet line post-Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact), and an eastern German boundary similar to Versailles but short of the plebescite zones in Upper Silesia and Masuria/East Prussia. Or maybe they'd push for a smaller East Prussia that is internationalized alongside Danzig.

Actually, I don't think Russia would have wanted any part of Germany in Poland (Excluding Posen maybe) - A poland with access to the sea is an independent Poland, and Russia's only beef with Germany at this point was Pan-Slavism (something that dead and buried by now).

 

[Fatt Shea]

Actually, I don't think Russia would have wanted any part of Germany in Poland (Excluding Posen maybe) - A poland with access to the sea is an independent Poland, and Russia's only beef with Germany at this point was Pan-Slavism (something that dead and buried by now).

Wont they want to weaken Germany so they do not invade again?

 

[kham_coc]

Wont they want to weaken Germany so they do not invade again?

If they win, Germany won't be a threat, and none of the polish lands in Germany were of any particular value. Also, Russia invaded Germany, this isn't post barbarossa.

 

[Slime_blob]

Warlord Era Russian Edition

 

[herkles]

The Provisional Government had already endorsed an independent Poland. I doubt they'd push for Constantinople. They're likely to either go for no annexations or annexation of Galicia/Lviv only. The other area they'd probably call go for annexations would be in Northeastern Turkey for a greater Armenia (if not quite the boundaries of Wilsonian Armenia). "No annexations" and "down with imperialism" were actually lines being pushed by liberals and socialists in pretty much all the combatant countries. (Witness the Reichstag peace resolution, Italian liberals denouncing the secret Treaty of London when it was leaked, etc.), and was something the Provisional Government also proclaimed.

My guess is they'd be focused on restricting German power, and having a small Poland as a buffer state. This probably means an eastern Polish boundary similar to the Curzon line (or the Nazi-Soviet line post-Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact), and an eastern German boundary similar to Versailles but short of the plebescite zones in Upper Silesia and Masuria/East Prussia. Or maybe they'd push for a smaller East Prussia that is internationalized alongside Danzig.

Interesting. So Poland would be strengthened here and a smaller or no East Prussia is interesting to think of. The impacts for Armenia and Turkey is interesting.

The Straits were the price Stavka wanted all along.

Bubnov Plan from March 1917 envisioned three divisions making a surprise landing straight to the the Bosporus fortified region, supported by the entire Black Sea fleet, since the fleet now had enough transport vessels (built during the war) to transport an entire army corps at once, and experience had been acquired in successful amphibious warfare during the operations against Trebizond. By spring 1917 the Ottomans had two reserve divisions available for the entire Bosporus region. Russia had three divisions available near Odessa that had done nothing but prepared for this operation for months.

On February 21st/March 6th 1917 Foreign Minister Pokrovskii submitted a memorandum to Stavka, recommending the landing to commence as soon as possible to ensure that Russia would not be deprived of her prize by her allies in a case the war ended that year. Denikin was positive, and together with Kolchak they were organizing transports for a Bosphorus descent as soon as Alekseev would provide them troops from the main front. But before Stavka could reply for Pokrovskii, revolution broke out in Petrograd.

The planning continued afterwards as well, though, and provided that Kerensky opts to go for the Straits instead of the June Offensive - who knows, they might even pull it off.

Considering that the Provisional government wasn't going for Annexations as mentioned above, who would actually control the Straits?