WW1 negotiated peace: What about the economy?

Fehérvári

WW1 concluded with a negotiated peace in late 1917/early 1918. In the peace treaty, neither side was required to pay any reparations/indemnities and both sides pledged not to introduce new punitive tariff barriers post-war. The US never entered the war and never provided unsecured loans to Entente countries. Russia avoided the October Revolution and the civil war.

So here are my questions: How could the economies and trade relations develop in the years, decades following the war ITTL? Would the Germans (and the Austro-Hungarians) still try to inflate away their internal debts? Would the Brits still try to restore pre-war gold exchange rates? What would the smaller scale of Entente debt to the US mean for both parties and others? What about the lack of reparations? Given these different circumstances, would there still be something like the Great Depression ITTL? If yes, how would the various Great Powers and others fare? What would be the fate of the gold standard? Etc. Etc.

Please share your thoughts!
 

Orcbuster

It will all depend on political stability. Negotiated peace in 1917/18 will likely lead to a massive backlash in all participating nations, the outcome of which will be highly uncertain.
 

Fehérvári

Orcbuster said:
It will all depend on political stability. Negotiated peace in 1917/18 will likely lead to a massive backlash in all participating nations, the outcome of which will be highly uncertain.
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Let's say no country succumbs to revolution or civil war (for the time being). Some countries like Italy or even Germany could get socdems in government, but there would be a moderate backswing and stabilisation by the mid-'20s.
 
Aisha Clan-Clan

Aisha Clan-Clan

Before mid-1916? The pre-WWI globalized economy and most prewar economic norms remain in place. After then? More changes, closer to an OTL-like outcome for levels of economic controls.
 

ahmedali

Banned
Orcbuster said:
It will all depend on political stability. Negotiated peace in 1917/18 will likely lead to a massive backlash in all participating nations, the outcome of which will be highly uncertain.
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If he makes every country satisfied, there is no reason

If the French take back Alsace and Lorraine

But in return they gave the Germans a place in the sun and annexed Luxembourg, which is a good deal

If the Russians lose Poland but are allowed to annex eastern Anatolia, this is a good deal

So not really
 

ahmedali

Banned
You need to get everyone to give up something

(The French will not accept any peace unless Alsace and Lorraine is returned, and this is my problem with the Germans.

If the Russians did not collapse in their revolution and the Germans and Austrians survived

I see a better economic situation without Versailles, Germany may prosper economically as a result of the lifting of the embargo, and the same is true for the Austrians and the Russians.

Depression may be averted if Russian markets are open, which will benefit American, British and German companies

And the profits there that they may reap from the Russian market may avoid the subscription

It will help Britain pay its loans to the United States

So it can be safely said that depression may be avoided
 

Fehérvári

ahmedali said:
If he makes every country satisfied, there is no reason

If the French take back Alsace and Lorraine

But in return they gave the Germans a place in the sun and annexed Luxembourg, which is a good deal

If the Russians lose Poland but are allowed to annex eastern Anatolia, this is a good deal

So not really
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These are the territorial changes I had planned:

- Germany annexes Luxembourg.
- French Central Africa and Belgian Congo are handed over to Germany.
- Poland (sans Suwalki) becomes an independent kingdom ruled by Karl Stephan .
- Bulgaria annexes Vardar Macedonia and a small strip of land in Eastern Serbia.
- Ottoman Empire annexes Batum and Kars.
- The Dodecanese Islands are restored to the Ottomans.
- Pacific German possessions are partitioned between Japan and the British Empire like IOTL.
- German Southwest Africa is handed over to South Africa.
- Ottoman nominal rule over Egypt and Cyprus officially comes to an end.
- British rule over Kuvait is aknowledged.

Non-territorial change:
- Serbia, Montenegro and Albania get firmly locked into the Austro-Hungarian Sphere of Influence.

Anything left unmentioned is restored to status quo ante bellum.
 

ahmedali

Banned
Fehérvári said:
These are the territorial changes I had planned:

- Germany annexes Luxembourg.
- French Central Africa and Belgian Congo are handed over to Germany.
- Poland (sans Suwalki) becomes an independent kingdom ruled by Karl Stephan .
- Bulgaria annexes Vardar Macedonia and a small strip of land in Eastern Serbia.
- Ottoman Empire annexes Batum and Kars.
- The Dodecanese Islands are restored to the Ottomans.
- Pacific German possessions are partitioned between Japan and the British Empire like IOTL.
- German Southwest Africa is handed over to South Africa.
- Ottoman nominal rule over Egypt and Cyprus officially comes to an end.
- British rule over Kuvait is aknowledged.

Non-territorial change:
- Serbia, Montenegro and Albania get firmly locked into the Austro-Hungarian Sphere of Influence.

Anything left unmentioned is restored to status quo ante bellum.
Click to expand...

I can agree with most of your suggestions

But I think that Kuwait and Cyprus in particular should remain Ottoman or be returned

Egypt Abbas Helmy must return in exchange for the Ottomans' recognition of Egypt's independence. This would seem to be a good and satisfactory settlement for both parties.

Regarding Alsace-Lorraine, I read that Karl von Habsburg wanted to persuade the Kaiser to return Alsace-Lorraine to France.

In return for the Germans to be compensated by giving them Austrian Silesia, so this may be a good idea that should be added

(With the Polish border strip they would make good compensation for the loss of Alsace.)

Assuming Italy collapses here, divide Libya between France and the United Kingdom

(Cyrenaica will be given to independent Egypt, and Sinai will become either Ottoman or TLL Israel, as proposed, and Tripolitania will be given to France as compensation for Gabon)

So Africa becomes like this map

https://www.reddit.com/r/imaginarymaps/comments/e5yrmq

What do you think and would you like me to suggest something else?
 
Lascaris

Lascaris

Fehérvári said:
These are the territorial changes I had planned:

- Germany annexes Luxembourg.
- French Central Africa and Belgian Congo are handed over to Germany.
- Poland (sans Suwalki) becomes an independent kingdom ruled by Karl Stephan .
- Bulgaria annexes Vardar Macedonia and a small strip of land in Eastern Serbia.
- Ottoman Empire annexes Batum and Kars.
- The Dodecanese Islands are restored to the Ottomans.
- Pacific German possessions are partitioned between Japan and the British Empire like IOTL.
- German Southwest Africa is handed over to South Africa.
- Ottoman nominal rule over Egypt and Cyprus officially comes to an end.
- British rule over Kuvait is aknowledged.

Non-territorial change:
- Serbia, Montenegro and Albania get firmly locked into the Austro-Hungarian Sphere of Influence.

Anything left unmentioned is restored to status quo ante bellum.
Click to expand...
That's not a negotiated peace. It's a Central Powers victory. Including terms the Central Powers have no way of enforcing.
 
Lascaris

Lascaris

ahmedali said:
If France collapsed, how would they fight?
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If France collapsed you don't have a negotiated peace, you have a CP victory. But even then. Say France DOES collapse. So what happens next? Germany has destroyed Russia and in our scenario France and has imposed on France a treaty similar to Brest Litovsk. How do you force Britain to any concession it does not want to make outside the continent? The Royal Navy still controls the waves. You end up with the Germans dominating the continent and the Entente, if effect British Empire with Free France in Algiers controlling everything outside Europe. British cannot invade continental Europe on their own, Germans cannot go outside Europe. Cold war situation with everyone preparing for the next round.
 

Fehérvári

ahmedali said:
But I think that Kuwait and Cyprus in particular should remain Ottoman or be returned
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It is more or less just the officialisation of what the Brits already declared during the war. The Ottomans are not exactly in a position to reverse that.
ahmedali said:
Egypt Abbas Helmy must return in exchange for the Ottomans' recognition of Egypt's independence. This would seem to be a good and satisfactory settlement for both parties.
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Again, the Ottomans are not in position to impose conditions on the Brits, and the Germans won't waste their political capital on such matter.
ahmedali said:
Regarding Alsace-Lorraine, I read that Karl von Habsburg wanted to persuade the Kaiser to return Alsace-Lorraine to France.

In return for the Germans to be compensated by giving them Austrian Silesia, so this may be a good idea that should be added

(With the Polish border strip they would make good compensation for the loss of Alsace.)
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ITTL Germany is not in a position that would justify the sacrifice of Alsace-Lorraine. Before the armistice of TTL, it is the Central Powers who have the upper hand.

The Polish Strip is only supported by the more radicals sections of the army. Since these very same elements would also advocate for the continuation for the war, they would be gradually sidelined during the peace negotiations.
ahmedali said:
Assuming Italy collapses here, divide Libya between France and the United Kingdom
Click to expand...
Why would you assume so?
Lascaris said:
That's not a negotiated peace. It's a Central Powers victory. Including terms the Central Powers have no way of enforcing.
Click to expand...
Considering there are trade offs and the whole thing is not utterly one-sided, it certainly is a negotiated peace.

Which terms do you find unagreeable? If its the matter with Congo and Central Africa you find problem with, please consider that Germany gave up all its ambitions in France and Belgium in exchange for it. Furthermore, German ambitions in Eastern Europe past Poland were also curbed, while Germany actually had to accept losses in the Pacific and Southwest Africa as well.
 

Fehérvári

Lascaris said:
And the UK can continue the war till final victory... as it did in OTL.
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It can, but would it want to? It's not like WW2, where the Nazis were despicably evil and completely untrustworthy. Once the Germans show willingness to give up on Belgium, the given primary British war cause is gone.
 

Fehérvári

Also, it is in British interest for Germany to have some overseas commitments. Otherwise all of the German Navy would always be concentrated in Europe, while the British would still need to spread out.
 

ahmedali

Banned
Fehérvári said:
It is more or less just the officialisation of what the Brits already declared during the war. The Ottomans are not exactly in a position to reverse that.

Again, the Ottomans are not in position to impose conditions on the Brits, and the Germans won't waste their political capital on such matter.

ITTL Germany is not in a position that would justify the sacrifice of Alsace-Lorraine. Before the armistice of TTL, it is the Central Powers who have the upper hand.

The Polish Strip is only supported by the more radicals sections of the army. Since these very same elements would also advocate for the continuation for the war, they would be gradually sidelined during the peace negotiations.

Why would you assume so?

Considering there are trade offs and the whole thing is not utterly one-sided, it certainly is a negotiated peace.

Which terms do you find unagreeable? If its the matter with Congo and Central Africa you find problem with, please consider that Germany gave up all its ambitions in France and Belgium in exchange for it. Furthermore, German ambitions in Eastern Europe past Poland were also curbed, while Germany actually had to accept losses in the Pacific and Southwest Africa as well.
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Kuwait and Cyprus yes they can

Abbas Helmy is the legitimate ruler of Egypt, so he must be returned

In fact, Chancellor Theobald von Bethmann supported Karl's proposal, and even the Kaiser supported it

It will collapse because of the loss, and the fact that the Italians protested against the war that the king had brought them into against their will, and the harsh punishment that would come to Italy for their German traitors.
 
Lascaris

Lascaris

Fehérvári said:
Which terms do you find unagreeable? If its the matter with Congo and Central Africa you find problem with, please consider that Germany gave up all its ambitions in France and Belgium in exchange for it. Furthermore, German ambitions in Eastern Europe past Poland were also curbed, while Germany actually had to accept losses in the Pacific and Southwest Africa as well.
Click to expand...
Lets see what the Entente was actually proposing and Austria-Hungary was willing to agree to in early 1917. Restoration of Alsace Lorraine, full restoration of Belgium and Serbia. Then later in 1917 Germany was prepared to offer some token concessions in the west, including not having naval bases on the Belgian coast (which one notes is far different than restoring Belgium) in exchange for a free hand in the East... which the Entente was not willing to give.

So in short? At a minimum status qwo ante bellum in Europe, the Entente keeping its gains over the Ottomans and an open question on the German colonies. The problem is of course neither side will be really interested in this, Charles might but the Germans, most certainly will not. And the Germans keeping any of their gains is in turn unacceptable to the Entente, one notes at the very point their situation looked to be at its worst they still were demanding Alsace Lorraine and freedon of Belgium and Serbia at a minimum.
 
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