WW1 Germany partitioned after 1914 defeat

[Grey Wolf]

France along with most other European countries would be terrified of this huge upset of balance of power with expanded Russia without Germany to balance it out and act as a buffer. France wouldn't start a war to force Russia to withdraw from Germany to not risk losing own their gains in it but Russia does become it's main enemy in Mainland Europe

Why? France is Russia's main ally and vice versa. Russian expansion doesn't threaten France's interests ANYWHERE. And hasn't France just acquired its own puppet buffer state against Germany too? It's in exactly the same position as Russia

 

[octoberman]

Why? France is Russia's main ally and vice versa. Russian expansion doesn't threaten France's interests ANYWHERE. And hasn't France just acquired its own puppet buffer state against Germany too? It's in exactly the same position as Russia

that was because of a common enemy in Germany without it they compete for influecne over europe and rest of the world

 

[Garrison]

first read the OP before commenting

I did, its completely unrealistic and not remotely plausible. I was putting forward the only scenario I can see where a partition of Germany could occur since there is no way it could happen in 1914.

that was because of a common enemy in Germany without it they compete for influecne over europe and rest of the world

And why would this happen when they have both achieved their main goal of neutralizing the threat of Germany and they have no competing interests in Europe, but again partitioning Germany in 1914 is not plausible.

 

[Discernible]

that was because of a common enemy in Germany without it they compete for influecne over europe and rest of the world

Since Germany has a recent history of invading, occupying and annexing parts of France - and Russia hasn't in 100 years and then only briefly - why would the French want a united Germany strong enough to hypothetically hold back the Russians from reaching France when they would be strong enough to invade France (again) and, also hypothetically, as allies of said Russians?

 

[riggerrob]

What if Germany was broken up into the dozens of duchies, principalities and kingdoms that it was before 1840?
What if neighbors severely limited joint military exercises between German principalities?
What if neighbors banned any form of German General staff?
What if neighbors banned any form of military staff college?
What if neighbors severely limited the number of German military logistics officers?
What if the armies of German principalities were limited to little more than border guards or pseudo (principality only) provincial police?

 

[itsamegg]

What if Germany was broken up into the dozens of duchies, principalities and kingdoms that it was before 1840?
What if neighbors severely limited joint military exercises between German principalities?
What if neighbors banned any form of German General staff?
What if neighbors banned any form of military staff college?
What if neighbors severely limited the number of German military logistics officers?
What if the armies of German principalities were limited to little more than border guards or pseudo (principality only) provincial police?

make your own thread, dont derail this one

 

[octoberman]

I did, its completely unrealistic and not remotely plausible. I was putting forward the only scenario I can see where a partition of Germany could occur since there is no way it could happen in 1914.

why ?

And why would this happen when they have both achieved their main goal of neutralizing the threat of Germany and they have no competing interests in Europe, but again partitioning Germany in 1914 is not plausible.

Since Germany has a recent history of invading, occupying and annexing parts of France - and Russia hasn't in 100 years and then only briefly - why would the French want a united Germany strong enough to hypothetically hold back the Russians from reaching France when they would be strong enough to invade France (again) and, also hypothetically, as allies of said Russians?

Same as OTL cold war. Balance of power. France will fear that they are next for Russia

 

[octoberman]

Since Germany has a recent history of invading, occupying and annexing parts of France - and Russia hasn't in 100 years and then only briefly - why would the French want a united Germany strong enough to hypothetically hold back the Russians from reaching France when they would be strong enough to invade France (again) and, also hypothetically, as allies of said Russians?

I never said French want a united Germany. They didn't even in OTL cold war despite being allied with Germany against Russian dominated USSR

 

[Garrison]

why ?

Because there is no appetite in WWI for such an action, especially not after a short war that ends in 1914. The only way it might happen is if the Entente and the USA has to fight its way to Berlin in 1919.

Same as OTL cold war. Balance of power. France will fear that they are next for Russia

Russia has no claims on any territory in Western Europe and even with a short war Russia has enough internal issues without plannign any offensive wars in europe.

 

[octoberman]

Because there is no appetite in WWI for such an action, especially not after a short war that ends in 1914. The only way it might happen is if the Entente and the USA has to fight its way to Berlin in 1919.

why counter speculate against actual history ↓ and say it's not like that

Some of the answers to your questions are addressed in two books I have seen, see the book excerpts below. Early on in the war, by OTL March 1915, France and Russia were clearly determined to partition Germany. Their joint intent was made even more clear by February 1917. So it is very likely that their aims would be similar in your ATL after the announced POD.

In brief (again see the extended explanation in the book excerpts at the end of this text), the French were to have the Left Bank of the Rhine, including Mainz. Russia would extend its borders westward into Germany. Prussia was to be kept isolated from the other German states. The other German states would be turned into neutral states pending a settlement at the Peace Conference.

Also by March 1915, both the British and the French had agreed that Russia would get Constantinople and the Straits. The British were to be given the neutral zone that existed between Great Britain and Russia in Persia (there had previously been a northern Russian zone, a central neutral zone and a southern British zone in modern day Iran). The Russians were willing that the French get Syria, Cilicia and Palestine. The British would annex Egypt.

The postwar situation would seem to be quite volatile. Could Great Britain prevent a partition of a defeated Germany that millions of French and Russian soldiers are intent on ? Could Great Britain then counterbalance a powerful Franco-Russian alliance that had essentially wiped the German Empire and Austria-Hungary off the map ? Britain had always opposed the strongest single power in Europe to maintain the “Balance of Power” but could she oppose both France and Russia at the same time if they remained allied ? From the excerpts below though, it seems that France was leery of, and suspicious of, Russia’s aggrandizement, so that might imply a break-up that Great Britain could take advantage of.

My guess tallies with my vote above: a Cold War with Russian Empire versus Britain and France.

Information about Franco-Russian plans for a partition of the German Empire in Peter Jackson’s “Beyond The Balance of Power: France and the Politics of National Security in the Era of the First World War", pages 146 - 147

Information about a Franco-Russian partition of the German Empire, plans for Constantinople, the Middle East and the “Great Game” in Persia in A.J. P. Taylor’s “The Struggle For Mastery In Europe: 1848 – 1918”, pages 540 – 542

 

[octoberman]

Russia has no claims on any territory in Western Europe and even with a short war Russia has enough internal issues without plannign any offensive wars in europe.

Same can be said about Germany but that did not stop Britain from allying with France against it

 

[Garrison]

Same can be said about Germany but that did not stop Britain from allying with France against it

Well you could say it, wouldn't make it true as Germany engaged in programs such as building the High Seas Fleet to directly challenge Britain and their battle plans called to go west and attack France via neutral Belgium regardless of how the war started.

 

[weasel_airlift]

Wouldn't this annoy the UK, and disrupt the Continental balance? Now it's France and Russia that are hegemons over Europe. I imagine that A-H, presuming that they survived the war intact are quaking in their boots, concerned that they'll be partitioned next. And indeed, if Germany is knocked out that quickly, what IS to stop France and Russia from doing the same to Austria-Hungary?

 

[octoberman]

Well you could say it, wouldn't make it true as Germany engaged in programs such as building the High Seas Fleet to directly challenge Britain

Russian expansion in Germany and Easter Europe a direct challenge to Britain's balance of power policy

and their battle plans called to go west and attack France via neutral Belgium regardless of how the war started.

None else knew of those plans

 

[octoberman]

Wouldn't this annoy the UK, and disrupt the Continental balance? Now it's France and Russia that are hegemons over Europe. I imagine that A-H, presuming that they survived the war intact are quaking in their boots, concerned that they'll be partitioned next. And indeed, if Germany is knocked out that quickly, what IS to stop France and Russia from doing the same to Austria-Hungary?

you are being extremely optimistic because France and Russia will partition Austria-Hungary as soon they are done with Germany. If Germany fall this early then Britain can only do little to save the central powers

 

[weasel_airlift]

you are being extremely optimistic because France and Russia will partition Austria-Hungary as soon they are done with Germany. If Germany fall this early then Britain can only do little to save the central powers

Well, it's the kind of thing that would annoy the UK at the peace talks. Russia and France now sit firmly astride Europe, and the UK can't do anything about it. If that happens, I could see an immediate policy change in the UK, though what that looks like, I don't know.

 

[Garrison]

Russian expansion in Germany and Easter Europe a direct challenge to Britain's balance of power policy

Except that wasn't on the cards before the war or after.

None else knew of those plans

The Schlieffen plan was hardly a deep dark secret.

 

[octoberman]

Except that wasn't on the cards before the war or after.

Britian and France weren't frozen in pre war era

The Schlieffen plan was hardly a deep dark secret.

It didn't create alliances either

 

[Garrison]

Britian and France weren't frozen in pre war era

It didn't create alliances either

I'm not even sure what this is supposed to mean. Again the only way a partition of Germany happens is if the Entente and the USA have to fight their way to Berlin, at which point the USSR is out of the picture as far as getting an occupation zone goes. There is no plausible scenario for a 1914 partition.

 

[octoberman]

I'm not even sure what this is supposed to mean. Again the only way a partition of Germany happens is if the Entente and the USA have to fight their way to Berlin, at which point the USSR is out of the picture as far as getting an occupation zone goes. There is no plausible scenario for a 1914 partition.

baseless asumption