Wrapped in Flames: The Great American War and Beyond

[EnglishCanuck]

I'm wondering if there might be any weaknesses in the Confederacy that could play to the Union's favor, ones that never had time to arise IOTL. The most obvious would be some kind of major slave revolt. I doubt Lincoln would be willing to actually start one himself (although he probably could if he gave Harriet Tubman enough guns), but if one arose on its own with reasonable leadership...

There are certain weaknesses in the Confederate position that could be taken advantage of, not that inciting a slave revolt is one of them. One of the reasons British observers entertained ideas of an intervention in 1863 was precisely because of that reason. Besides, as someone said, inciting a slave revolt would probably turn 50,000 bayonets against the Union overnight and torpedo a lot of support for the war. If one arose on its own... well let's just say Lincoln would not exactly be in a hurry to extinguish it...

Could the Union try nibbling off the outlying regions? Hold the line in the East and take the Mississippi Valley? Link up with the pro-union sections of Tennessee and North Carolina?

As the situation currently stands, the outlying regions like the Indian Territory and Arizona are currently in Confederate hands because of 1) better luck in 1862 and 2) the paucity of resources the Union can devote to those territories. The line in the East is currently the Potomac immediately south of Washington and so Lee's army has to be driven back to at least where it was at the start of 1862 for the capital to be safe from potential embarrassment, so expect a Union offensive in May 1864. If they can drive them back, it may buy time.

In the West, there's room, but the Union suffered a terrible reverse on the Mississippi the previous year and - well, you'll see in the catch up chapters from the Western theater coming up - they have to go farther than they did historically. If they can bottle up the Confederate fleet, they could certainly attempt some amphibious operations to disperse Confederate forces and discomfort Richmond, but that will take time to organize. There's options, but none so good as they existed in OTL 1864.

 

[DAv]

The Lost Cause would be very different in that situation, and indeed maybe even a little less contentious I think. Had, even with British help, the Confederacy failed to win its independence you would probably get lots of people seeing either that they were doomed from the start or saying "well we would've won if the damn limeys had stuck it out" sort of deal.

Depending on how deep the grudge goes, the Confederacy being taken back into the Union and an eventual Southern President could lead to diplomatic relations getting rather... tetchy. Not full on collapse, but perhaps some noticeable frost here and there.

 

[mayboro]

I don't know if this question has already been asked, but what about immigration in the US?
Does the UK blockade have an impact on the flow of people wanting to immigrate?
If so, how much?

 

[MonarchistCanuck]

I think a better question might be how is immigration affected after the war, especially if there's a successful Southern secession

Edit: This also raises the question of how TTL Civil War is going to affect foreign investment, with the British intervention and if the South succeeds in leaving, foreign investors aren't going to have a lot of confidence in the US market. The war with Britain might also severely affect British foreign investment, which IOTL was a major driver of US expansion. That alone will give out interesting butterflies

 

[Ironshark]

so what do you guys think the union military strategy after the northern font is over and done with.



it seems to me that keeping the armies that served in Canada together sending them to the east and giving Thomas command in the west and concentrating the west troops in jonhstons front is probably the best policy for now but it took me 2 years to finish a rtw campaign and I am still not finished so what do I know?

 

[Young Augustus5598]

so what do you guys think the union military strategy after the northern font is over and done with.



it seems to me that keeping the armies that served in Canada together sending them to the east and giving Thomas command in the west and concentrating the west troops in jonhstons front is probably the best policy for now but it took me 2 years to finish a rtw campaign and I am still not finished so what do I know?

That assumes that the British and the Union come to acceptable terms. But once the Confederacy hears about negotiations, they are going to go into overdrive purchasing arms, resources, loans, etc. everything needed to defend themselves, and the North is going to have to decide what theater is most critical for those veterans. The Army of the Potomac is essentially a shell being rebuilt post Washington, but it’s defending the capital efficiently. The West has more mobility, but it’d take years for it to effectively defeat the South at this point. So it’s an interesting conundrum.

 

[EnglishCanuck]

I don't know if this question has already been asked, but what about immigration in the US?
Does the UK blockade have an impact on the flow of people wanting to immigrate?
If so, how much?

So I haven't put the dent in immigration in numerical terms, but in 1862-63 the best estimate would be that roughly 200,000 people who would have immigrated to the United States have either gone elsewhere or stayed home. This is significant since, according to this chart here. between 1860 and 1869 some 2,081,261 people immigrated to the US, or roughly 231,000 people per year. The stop gap between 1862-63(64?) is potentially not too significant as some people may wait a year or two to immigrate, but others may head elsewhere completely. The rough numbers I've thought of who immigrated anyways were about 150,000, with 100,000 of them ending up in British North America and 50,000 going elsewhere, with a small trickle making it to the US despite the risk of blockade and impoundment.

Assuming that immigration is still a trickle when/if the blockade ends in 1864, you have a deficit of about 400,000 immigrants to US soil between 1862-64 thus far. That can be made up with a post-war surge of immigrants it should be noted. There will, more than likely, be jobs as certainly quite a few people will have died and need replacing I'm sorry to say.

I think a better question might be how is immigration affected after the war, especially if there's a successful Southern secession

Edit: This also raises the question of how TTL Civil War is going to affect foreign investment, with the British intervention and if the South succeeds in leaving, foreign investors aren't going to have a lot of confidence in the US market. The war with Britain might also severely affect British foreign investment, which IOTL was a major driver of US expansion. That alone will give out interesting butterflies

This is in fact, a quite pertinent question. Leaving behind military conscription and wars in Europe, while not the main driver of the war, is not an inconsequential factor in immigration. People moving to look for jobs in the cities and factories of the East who might otherwise be liable for military service in America will not be too pleased by this. That is bound to cut into the number of prospective immigrants by a not inconsequential number, but probably not enough to flatten US population growth to a significant degree, and more likely make it waver by only a few percentage points depending on other options available.

Post-war investment by European powers will be...somewhat more dicey depending on the outcome. A few million pounds sterling have been lost in railway securities by many British investors which will make American railroads a bad bet for a few years at least, while investing in American economic engines may come with some reservations initially. I, personally, don't think it would do much other than exacerbate a post-war depression that would be onset due to greater inflation for a time, while the benefits of investment in American business will over time overcome a lot of reluctance as the US keeps growing. Its economy will, however, be subject to a bit more of a boom and bust cycle in the 1860s and 1870s.

 

[mayboro]

So I haven't put the dent in immigration in numerical terms, but in 1862-63 the best estimate would be that roughly 200,000 people who would have immigrated to the United States have either gone elsewhere or stayed home. This is significant since, according to this chart here. between 1860 and 1869 some 2,081,261 people immigrated to the US, or roughly 231,000 people per year. The stop gap between 1862-63(64?) is potentially not too significant as some people may wait a year or two to immigrate, but others may head elsewhere completely. The rough numbers I've thought of who immigrated anyways were about 150,000, with 100,000 of them ending up in British North America and 50,000 going elsewhere, with a small trickle making it to the US despite the risk of blockade and impoundment.

Assuming that immigration is still a trickle when/if the blockade ends in 1864, you have a deficit of about 400,000 immigrants to US soil between 1862-64 thus far. That can be made up with a post-war surge of immigrants it should be noted. There will, more than likely, be jobs as certainly quite a few people will have died and need replacing I'm sorry to say.

Thank you for the answer, I have another question, to what extent did the war and the resulting blockade influence the shipping routes of the major shipping companies?
And how far will the routes return to "normal" after the war and how far will it have an influence on the development of the USA if "normality" does not occur?
Normal in this case means OTL.
Furthermore, I wonder how far the economic development of the USA will suffer from this war and the loss of foreign loans, especially since I don't think British banks will be willing to make major investments in the USA, at least for a few years.

 

[EnglishCanuck]

Thank you for the answer, I have another question, to what extent did the war and the resulting blockade influence the shipping routes of the major shipping companies?
And how far will the routes return to "normal" after the war and how far will it have an influence on the development of the USA if "normality" does not occur?
Normal in this case means OTL.
Furthermore, I wonder how far the economic development of the USA will suffer from this war and the loss of foreign loans, especially since I don't think British banks will be willing to make major investments in the USA, at least for a few years.

So thus far, major shipping routes haven't really altered. Many boats otherwise going to the Northern US have turned south towards Confederate ports, especially in 1863, looking forward to taking up the sudden boom in the cotton trade* resulting from the stock of 1861 running out and as the bumper crop from 1860 finally dwindled. Essentially, lots of shipping that would otherwise have run to the North has shifted south, briefly, while lots of British shipping has done the same or been co-opted for war shipping. Post-war, they should return to normal very quickly, as the US still has much to sell. The big shift though will be that, like OTL, American owned ships will have almost disappeared, in this case even more so!

The economic development of the US will be interesting. It is still a rich nation, but its going to have financial difficulties from inflation that were not present post 1865 OTL while there's going to be lots of debate about the value of the greenbacks, how realistic returning to a gold standard is, and how to pay for a larger army for sure. There will be loans coming in, but let's just say that at least one major project from OTL is delayed by a few years thanks to some general economic malaise post-war. The 1870s are going to be interesting economics wise.

*Without the blockade in effect through 1861-64 there was less pressure to seek alternative sources of cotton.

 

[MonarchistCanuck]

I wonder how this war is going to affect the Manifest Destiny lobby? Are there going to be more US politicians that will push for the annexation of British North America? Will we still see a Annexation Bill in 1866 but with more support than OTL? I imagine some Americans will support annexation to secure their northern flank in the event of another war (and some no doubt will support for revenge)

 

[EnglishCanuck]

I wonder how this war is going to affect the Manifest Destiny lobby? Are there going to be more US politicians that will push for the annexation of British North America? Will we still see a Annexation Bill in 1866 but with more support than OTL? I imagine some Americans will support annexation to secure their northern flank in the event of another war (and some no doubt will support for revenge)

There's going to be a real dent in the Manifest Destiny lobby, that much is certain. The Annexation Bill of 1866 would be a dead letter in this scenario - more likely to be laughed at than read on the floor of the House - and a lot of push to re-invade Canada would be mocked for the foolishness that it is. Though there's other places the US might expand in the Pacific or Caribbean to make sure they have more options in case of another foreign war. Naval coaling stations will not be overlooked!

 

[MonarchistCanuck]

There's going to be a real dent in the Manifest Destiny lobby, that much is certain. The Annexation Bill of 1866 would be a dead letter in this scenario - more likely to be laughed at than read on the floor of the House - and a lot of push to re-invade Canada would be mocked for the foolishness that it is. Though there's other places the US might expand in the Pacific or Caribbean to make sure they have more options in case of another foreign war. Naval coaling stations will not be overlooked!

Good point on the coaling stations and Pacific expansion, the Americans will still likely want to expand their trading network and (forcefully) open Japan up to trade with the colonial powers. I personally don't see the Spanish-American War being butterflied either (could be wrong though)

 

[EnglishCanuck]

Good point on the coaling stations and Pacific expansion, the Americans will still likely want to expand their trading network and (forcefully) open Japan up to trade with the colonial powers. I personally don't see the Spanish-American War being butterflied either (could be wrong though)

The mission to Japan did already take place, and the Japanese are still (as per OTL and you can see in the year in review updates) resisting foreign incursion. That will have some interesting butterflies all its own alongside events elsewhere in the world. The US is still going to be interested in especially expanding its naval presence post-war. It's like how I think any surviving Confederacy would invest heavily in naval infrastructure. No matter what the US comes out looking like, they will realize that the ocean is not quite the barrier to attack they had hoped when you're facing the largest naval power in the world.

 

[EnglishCanuck]

Alrighty, I can't make any promises on updates across December as real life will be a tad hectic until Christmas, but the plans for the next couple chapters are in the works, to keep you appraised of where we will be looking:

Chapter 82: Memphis Shuffle - playing catch up out West

Chapter 83: War to the Knife - Guerilla warfare in the West up to March 1864, and some updates on occupied Canada

Chapter 84: By the Progress of Our Arms - reactions in North America to the negotiations at Rotterdam

By that point the TL will be firmly into 1864 and I'll be cramming for the spring and summer campaigns, as well as the big political drama with Canadian Confederation and the Election of 1864. Though I'll keep some room open for other stuff, depending on what things people would like to hear updates on across 1864.

 

[Ironshark]

can we a trailer too?
also love the chapter titles makes me feel like I am watching a TV show
thank you for sharing your imagination with us .

 

[EnglishCanuck]

can we a trailer too?
also love the chapter titles makes me feel like I am watching a TV show
thank you for sharing your imagination with us .

I'm quite glad you've enjoyed it! I've loved writing this piece and am sincerely hoping to keep it going as long as possible!

 

[MonarchistCanuck]

I'm quite glad you've enjoyed it! I've loved writing this piece and am sincerely hoping to keep it going as long as possible!

Now you've done it, we're never going to let you leave now 😈😛

 

[EnglishCanuck]

Now you've done it, we're never going to let you leave now 😈😛

I will admit that even if I write this TL into the 21st century I have a firm "end of history" idea for 2012. Though, the furthest I see this story going would be 1960s.

 

[SultanArda]

I wonder what will happen to Ottoman Empire(Turkey) in this timeline.

 

[EnglishCanuck]

I wonder what will happen to Ottoman Empire(Turkey) in this timeline.

I have some ideas, but a lot of that will develop over the 1870s. The butterflies are really beginning to flap their wings in 1864, and so far its been the year that has seen the most change as I'm writing it. Truthfully I'm mildly surprised a lot of people don't seem to have caught the really major one from Chapter 81 thus far.

Once I finish the war I can concentrate on a lot of the broader things and the years should go by much faster. Rather than hopping from theater to theater I can detail more broad scope to the world at large, though the TL will more firmly focus on North America.