Wrapped in Flames: The Great American War and Beyond
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I'd just finished reading/re-reading two biographies of Maximilian and Carlota recently, so the chance to delve more into their history and tenure as the rulers of much of Mexico was quite interesting. Maximilian, while terribly naïve and stuck firmly in his Hapsburg roots, was an extremely liberal minded person for the 19th century. He was also probably someone who had the interests of the indigenous peoples of Mexico seriously in mind with a view other than as cheap labor and cannon fodder.
For all his naivety, he was someone who did become slightly more practical when circumstances dictated. He is still bound up in the odious terms the Treaty of Miramar bound him to OTL, but he won't stay that way forever.
What was always an interesting question was whether he could emerge as the viable alternative to civil war and invasion in the absence of the elected republican government after almost a decade of war. I think that, if the old government had no legitimate successor and over a decade of intermittent warfare were the alternative, many Mexicans would bite the bullet and see what happened if Max was allowed to rule. How well that might work out is an open question.
I'm really intrigued to see the effects of a stronger Max as opposed to OTL, he'd definitely be open to trade with the Confederacy TTL he's presumably having more capital flow than OTL. Though, if tge confederacy doesn't get Colorado( Southern California) The next on the chopping block is of course Northern Mexico. That all assumes a surviving non-ravaged CSA.
Speaking of Dixie interests, I may have missed it but how is Nicaragua/Anywhere William "Grey Eyed" Walker has/had touched doing?
Note to the readers: Small update to the Part 1 of 1864 World in Review chapter as I realized a major oversight for 1864!
Not so much more than OTL. The Treaty of Miramar was extremely lopsided towards the French, and Mexico is in arrears just paying for it, though with the capture of the Pacific ports in 1864, there's more revenues opening up, some stability in corridors patrolled by the French army, and of course Max has some talented Mexicans and Frenchmen about to pour over his finances. Though Mexico will become much better off it Napoleon doesn't lean so hard on Max to pay everything he wants. Something in Europe could of course distract him from leaning...
Territorially, Mexico is plenty secure. Neither US or a potentially independent Confederacy is going to be in any position to muscle in on Mexican territory, and the Confederacy will be having difficulty just securing Arizona if they can keep it!
Maximilian is interested in supporting the Confederacy, mainly as a buffer against US encroachment or interference, so he's going to be extending friendly letters towards Richmond. The question of course, is will Richmond reciprocate.
Nicaragua is about as stable as OTL. They view the French intervention in Mexico with mild alarm, but are more concerned with getting binding arbitration regarding the Miskito Kingdom after 1860. Most Central American governments are watching events in Mexico with interest, and some are viewing what appears to be the collapse of the United States with dismay, and a few more unscrupulous wonder about opportunity.
A timeline wherein the odious confederacy survives, but in return there's a good chance that Mexico actually becomes a stable constitutional monarchy? This seems like a fine trade. If Maximilian finds a friendly mentor-like figure in Pedro II, the latter might also be more motivated to retain his throne. It would be a somewhat odd alliance perhaps, but ultimately very positive for Latin America as a whole.
Cinco de Mayo by @KingSweden24 is pretty much the same premise just executed in a different way (and the sequel is already flowing! ) if you're interested in this kinda story particularly.
I do think a different trajectory for Mexico, one which isn't pushed into the autocratic hands of the Porfiriato, but instead into something of an imperfect constitutional monarchy would be interesting. There were certainly politicians in the US who were not opposed to such a turn, with the new American president being one of them. With a longer, harder, war, there is going to be less stomach for brinkmanship on the international scene in the late 1860s for the United States either way, especially as they will have a lot of post-war issues to deal with!
I do enjoy KingSweden's TL, its very fun to read! I thankfully have many of my own events pre-planned in a way they shouldn't be too similar in the 20th century to his excellent work!
TTL has, so far, primarily been a military TL to explore how I think a British intervention in the Civil War would play out, with attention to detail on how certain events might go. That's been the main focus thus far, but as we get into 1865 there will be more of a broad political focus as we look more towards the continent. That will mean Mexico does get more general updates as well as I zoom the focus out more.
Happy Canadian Thanksgiving! I'm certainly thankful for all the people who've read and supported Wrapped in Flames all these years! Let's end 1864 with one more look at the wider world and then move on to 1865!
Chapter 103: 1864 A Year in Review Part 2
Chapter 103: 1864 A Year in Review Part 2
Asia:
“The dislocation of the Opium Wars and the subsequent anarchy which reigned in the wake of the Taiping and Nian rebellions across China would do much to discredit the Qing in the eyes of the general populace. Many provincial nobles and rural leaders simply assumed that they had lost the mandate of heaven. Was it not then time for a new dynasty? If this was the case, who would then rule China, it was widely assumed it would not be a Manchu, but none had risen to take that mantle…
On the 14th of July, the capital of the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom was finally breached and the forces of the Anqing Army poured into the city. The fighting was street to street, hand to hand, and bitterly to the death. Surrender was not accepted or expected, and the city would be burned in an orgy of looting and violence, “the slate wiped clean,” Zeng would later write…
Fall of Nanjing
Upon the defeat of the rebels, Guofan would invite the various leaders of the provincial armies to a meeting at Dibao Castle on the Purple Mountain on August 14th. It was here, well away from generals deemed too loyal or suspect, that he made his proclamation. He announced that the fall of the pretender dynasty had been a sign from Heaven. It had not been the Emperor, or even his appointed favorites who had triumphed, nor had it been the Manchu armies. Instead, it had been armies raised by and composed of loyal Han peoples who had fought and died, and even now fought and died to protect a corrupt and remote set of rulers.
The nation bled, flood wracked the rivers and famines stalked the land. Foreigners had breached even the Forbidden City and burned the Imperial residences themselves. The people suffered, and the Emperor and his Manchu advisors did nothing. Was it not time then, for a new dynasty, a Han dynasty? He asked the assembled generals whether they would claim the mantle of Heaven. Shocked and not a little disturbed, none would object to the brothers claiming then, that Zeng himself should be emperor, supported soon by Zuo Zongtang and Li Hongzhang. With two of the most powerful provincial generals behind him, his rise to the place of Son of Heaven was assured, but he was careful to deny he was emperor at that moment, merely accepting a role as the overall leader in what would become the Proclamation of the Purple Mountain…
That night, generals deemed suspect or too loyal to the court in Beijing were executed, alongside the slaughter of forces deemed not suitably loyal to their provincial leaders. Generals who were not suspect were given the chance to pledge allegiance to forces of Proclamation. Those who accepted were brought into the fold as partners, while those who refused were executed. By the beginning of September, in the Nanjing area, the forces of the Proclamation could count on over 500,000 soldiers now loyal to them. They would begin sending emissaries to the other provincial forces, or generals deemed of potential loyalty…
The exact reason for Zeng Guofan’s decision to overthrow the Qing dynasty has long been debated. While some believe that it was his brothers informing him that it was the Will of Heaven that he should conquer so much and be raised so high, others point to a more personal vendetta. When the concubine Cixi had launched the Xinyou Coup in 1861, she had executed Zeng’s old teacher and ally Sushun. While no data survives to back up this claim, it cannot be seen as coincidental either that he should have a grudge against those who now led the Qing court[1]…
With the defeat of General Sengge Rinchen’s forces at Kaifeng in November, the forces of the Proclamation were now clear to march north towards Beijing.
…the rise of the Purple Dragon Emperor had begun[2].” - Twilight of Dynasties: The 19th Century Crisis of China, Sylvester Platt, Oxford Publishing, 2012
The future emperor of China
August 20th - Anti-Shogunate forces launch an uprising in Kyoto attempting to kidnap the emperor. Mostly led by forces from the Choshu domain and pro-imperial ronin, the fierce street battles that mark the Kinmon Incident are a precursor of things to come as the power of the Shogunate is seriously challenged. The proclamation of "Revere the Emperor, Expel the Barbarian" is still enthusiastically taken up by many anti-Shogun samurai and daimyo.
September 5th - The combined Anglo, Dutch and French fleet sails into the Shimonoseki Straits. With 26 warships and 2,500 allied troops, the battle follows the first campaign from July in order to silence the Choshu batteries which have been indiscriminately firing on foreign shipping since 1863. The battle lasts two days and the allied forces manage to capture or destroy all the modern artillery, with the Choshu domain finally conceding to the European demands on September 8th[3].
The resulting defeat will contribute to the First Choshu expedition where the forces of the Shogunate will march to the borders of the Choshu domain and reach a negotiated settlement handing over the ringleaders of the Kinmon Incident.
The Pacific:
June 13th - As a series of tit for tat land raids escalated in 1863 and 1864, the warriors of the Kingitanga movement demand action in response to a perceived British weakness. The Maori King Tāwhiao did not believe a confrontation with the encroaching settlers would succeed, but his hand is forced when a war party ambushes a British convoy at Martins Farm. 35 of the 50 man detachment are killed, and this sparks fears of a full scale war on the North Island.
With only two regiments of infantry after the dispatch of troops to California during the American War, General Duncan Cameron must rely on local militia while writing for reinforcements. Despite his wishes, Tāwhiao will be forced to allow his warriors to engage in bush raids throughout much of the summer and fall of 1864 as British reinforcements are brought to New Zealand[4]. These will be the opening skirmishes of the Waikato War.
November 19th 1864 - The Premiers of New South Wales and Victoria, James Martin and James McCulloch, manage to host the Melbourne Conference as the two colonies discuss matters of mutual defence and the issue of pooling their defense spending to better protect their coastal towns.
Africa:
January - The Transvaal Civil War ends at the Battle of Potchefstroom, with Paul Kruger triumphing over the rebel forces of Stepahnus Shoeman, and incorporating the rebel republic of Zoutpansberg into the South African Republic.
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1] Honestly, it was his duty and seeming huge reluctance for power OTL which made him unwilling to overthrow the Qing Dynasty. Had some of his more militant brothers lived (and one does, surviving wounds which killed him in 1862) he could probably have been persuaded to declare the Qing defunct. He commanded enough personal loyalty and respect that his headquarters in Anqing were, de facto, the true center of power in China from 1861-64. From my understanding, there was a sense that all the calamities which befell China from 1840 to 1864 had convinced many that the Manchu had lost the Mandate of Heaven that had Zeng declared his intent to supplant the Qing Dynasty very few would have contested the claim.
2] Forgive me since I do not have the prerequisite understanding of Mandarin or proper naming conventions for emperors to give this guess the gravity it deserves.
3] The primary difference here is no American observers to make their own diplomatic claims in the end for losses. OTL they had a vessel involved which is now the HMS Wyoming.
4] The OTL Invasion of Waikato was undertaken by the British settlers themselves. With troops withdrawn from New Zealand for the War in America, the locals don’t feel quite emboldened enough to launch the war. The perceived weakness of the British here emboldens groups of warriors to fight. From my understanding that was not what Tāwhiao wanted, but some groups of warriors did resort to these tactics to fight the white encroachment. This alternate war will get going in 1865.
Well, that's going to alter Chinese history for the rest of the century, that's for sure. Can't say I saw that one coming.
The history of the late 19th century is going to be quite different I can tell you that!
What is the general situation in south africa ? i dont remenber other updates that mention it directly .
the TTL Maori wars will likely be either a lot more brief, with British reinforcements from the war in North America being well-equipped veteran troops and the officers commanding being less willing to spend blood on marginal objectives, or a lot more bloody, with a unit which was not in any particularly respectable theatre of battle getting their choler up fighting 'barbarian natives' and an ambitious officer seeking to make his name in a distinct little war.
He seems to be a competent guy, from my look.
A competent official (both in governing and fighting), a genuine believer in the Confucian thought and a seemingly well-liked officer, thought one who tended rebellions… bloodily.
There won’t be any throne fight after him, as he only had one wife, and his two sons died young, with only remaining son being Zeng Jize, an important diplomat in our timeline who while realising the importance of telegraph early, but was also a diplomat who angered French a lot just because he thought they won’t go to war with China.
Also, while I hope he won’t do things like it, given that Zeng Jize is 25 years old, it will be hard to change his personality so… here is an example of one of his antics in France:
In January 1884, in the wake of Admiral Amédée Courbet's capture of Sơn Tây (16 December 1883), Zeng wrote a provocative article that made wounding references to the Franco-Prussian War ('The bravery of the French soldiers has been so widely praised that one might almost think that they had captured Metz or Strasbourg rather than Sơn Tây'). To add insult to injury, he arranged for this article to be published in Germany, in the Breslau Gazette.
Is this likely to reduce the difference in the way that the Maori were treated from the way that the Australian Aborigines are treated? (If so, that might make the likelihood of Australia and NZ ending up as one country as the special treatment of the Maori (as frankly being treated as Human beings) was one of the major reasons the split didn't happen.
South Africa is much the same as OTL. The little civil war which formed the South African Republic was one of those incidents which gave the British the feeling they should meddle in the Boer politics prior to the discovery of diamonds in 1867 which prompted further expansion.
From everything I've read he was extremely competent. Almost completely immune to bribery, self consciously worried about coming off as too grand, while also grudgingly learning to accept that there is some merit in Western technology. OTL in 1864 he had realized the importance of steamships and Western cannons and firepower, which means that he was quick to arm his troops with whatever he could get. OTL much of that was to ensure he was as well or better armed than the Ever Victorious Army (which he distrusted) but also because he wanted an advantage against the Taiping. He was probably someone who could tilt China in a very different direction from its Qing trajectory. That's not to say he doesn't face problems. Much of the country is wrecked by decades of fighting, money is owed to the West, while revolts wrack the countryside from north to south still. Its an uphill battle.
The lack of obvious succession crisis is good, but his son was a bit of a piece of work. He wholeheartedly believed in Chinese superiority to the rest of the world and was quite flagrantly insulting towards Westerners. Whether he can learn to not do that is a bit of an open question, and will depend on whether he chooses to mellow out a little in the years before his father dies.
However, this revolution in China will have big ripples in Asia and Europe. Then in time, in the Americas.
The wars will likely go on as the British force treaties on them like OTL. However, with the British perceiving this Waikato War as a "Native Uprising" versus the war of choice initiated by the Colonial government, then they will very much want to forcibly subjugate the King Movement this time around, ensuring that they swear fealty to the Queen and accept what the British demand of them. Whether that leads to a short violent war in 1865 or another uprising down the line remains to be seen. However, Cameron was quite skilled in this fighting, and is only waiting for reinforcements to plunge deeper into Maori territory on the North Island.
To an extent. The horrendous treatment of Australia's Aborigines continues TTL unfortunately, but the Maori may end up having more of a Numbered Treaty system imposed on them here depending on how the British and Colonial authorities feel. However, the Australians OTL did agree to edit the constitution to allow the Maori to not be second class citizens in their homeland, so some compromise might be reasonable here. The biggest sticking point between New Zealand and Australia was, unfortunately, the desire to limit Asian immigration into New Zealand.
While that issue might be overcome at a later date, there's still sticking points. Though the impetus for the alternate initial federation kick at the Melbourne Conference is more driven by defensive integration, New Zealand may find that ranks higher on its priority list.
Never rule out the tangata whenua, particularly on their own ground. The New Zealand Wars required a massive commitment of troops in OTL- 20, 000 at one point, which is absolutely ridiculous given the size of Aotearoa and the forces they were fighting. Even then, Britain required a complex series of alliances with other iwi to secure victory.
I don't think Britain will lose, unfortunately. But I can easily picture 'veteran' troops not taking their enemy seriously and blundering into another Gate Pa.
This is a widespread belief, but not grounded in fact; over twenty years ago the New Zealand historian Philipa Mein Smith demonstrated that the Australians were prepared to make any constitutional alterations necessary to let New Zealand treat the Maori differently, as everyone agreed that they were of a 'higher' race than indigenous Australians. While New Zealand was concerned about this to some extent, if anything New Zealanders at the time were more worried that Australia wouldn't remain racially pure in the face of Asian migration.