Yeah, tone down the terrorism. I was thinking more in terms of repression and reputation.
Would the CSA been doomed to economic disaster?
- Thread starter Johnrankins
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Thomas1195
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Well, by late 19th century/early 20th century, they could simply send battleships to shell CSA coasts and ports.
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Thomas1195
Banned
The North overall still had more well-developed legal, political and economic institutions, and a larger and stronger capital markets and banking system to absorb foreign investments and allocate capital to industries.
Hell, yes it would be. You are not going to become even a secondary power with 9 million, well, after taking into account Civil War death, which would be lower than OTL but still significant as a percentage of population.
We must take into account that the CSA could win the war while losing a number of its original territories, those in the border, to the Union.
I felt a great disturbance in the Force, as if millions of butterflies suddenly cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced.
North Korea is a dictatorship. The CSA would be a democracy, if only for white people.
Would it, for how long? Even if it is, people are stubborn. They don't want their father to have died in vain fighting the Abolitionists. Even if the economy is sinking I can see them saying "I don't want my daddy to have died in vain.". They made big sacrifices in war, they may well be willing to do so in peace.
I can’t remember if I have brought this up, but there’s also another aspect which could give CSA problems, under slavery the slave population saw a increase of 5% White admixture every generation, which admixture wasn’t evenly, there will be growing population of slaves, which anyone outside CSA will see as White.
Why not both? The People's Christian Republic of Dixie. Because why not a commie-nazi-fundie-(slaver ?) state.
The existence of a uber wealthy class of plantation owners and good ol' boys in a connection to the legal, military, police, government, and business systems inherently leads to corruption. Industrial magnates can and were counteracted by free labor organization and voting, which is impossible in a racially and monetarily stratified society like the South, especially if independent. There was no system of production and corruption totally disconnected from the bulk of the citizenry.
Slaves enable total ignoring of the white workers, and suppression of slave and worker conditions. With the government connections of the planter class, it is far more likely to end up like LatAm. It has the agrarian economy, white upper crust, racial caste system, and large intermediary class. This results in either a poor white and/or slave rebellion and CSSA, (and-)or a corrupt crapsack.
If the CSA got resources without Yankee cash, the Yanks could simply beat them up and take it easily. In a WWI style conflict of meatgrinders, Yankees win 9 times out of 10.
The CSA is practically doomed to be a corrupt crapsack, simply due to economics and culture.
Huey Long somehow isn't butterflied and he implements CathJuche.
That would take, if every generation is 25 years, 500 years. Since they were around 25% ish, I would say it would take about 375 years, and so from 1865 that would be 2240. If you're fine with 80%, 275 years, so 2140. By the time the slaves are whitened, Captain Kirk will be flying around. And slavery and err... "admixture" would have to continue despite combines, robots, and "robotic emulators of reproductive actions".
As part of an alternate history timeline, I and various friends have discussed many times whether the Confederate States of America would have been viable economically by 1914, the presumptive start date of a world war in which it would go toe-to-toe with the United States. Our conclusion was that, no, it would not survive the encounter—not even if the scales were tilted consistently in its favor from the very moment of secession in April 1860.
Some considerations.
First, to give the C.S. as much of a “shot” as possible in the post-war period, it is convenient to reduce the length and breadth of the war. Perhaps Confederate garrisons in Tennessee don’t give way as readily in 1862 when Ulysses Grant first comes knocking. Probably Lee wins convincingly at Antietam. Assume that the Trent Affair spirals out of control into a British intervention that ties down Federal troops on either coast, helping the Confederacy to make maximal territorial gains—in Kentucky, Missouri, Virginia, and the New Mexico Territory.
Second, the loss must be shocking to the North, sparking a period of politico-military self-mutilation. West Point is shuttered amidst criticism that it became an intellectual forcing-house for traitors. Dependence on the militia system to defend the long frontier with Canada and quash inevitable skirmishes in the Border States fosters a perverse attitude toward spending on a standing army, particularly because it is obvious that the South could not hope to mount a successful invasion. The South, in turn, grapples with the opposite effect: martial heroes go on to political success, founding dynasties that come to resemble stratocracies.
Third, the South seems to have lacked the taste for a strong central government. Even during the darkest days of the American Civil War in OTL, Southern governors held out on Richmond. While one could argue that that the exigency created by Union irredentism tamps down on some of these centrifugal tendencies, the South will probably struggle to implement essential improvements to roads, rails, and rivers. Think about the transformative impact of the Tennessee Valley Authority and whether such a project is likely to be embraced in an environment where two prior revolutions against central authority have been carried off successfully.
Fourth, the South’s interest in experimental weaponry will probably continue simply as a consequence of the David-versus-Goliath dynamic. Especially given the amount of ground to cover, the South would probably become an enthusiastic user of armored trains for internal defense, and possibly airships as well. (If I remember correctly, Arkansas was one of the few locations that provided access to natural helium at the turn of the nineteenth century.) Many alternate histories assume that the South would choose to direct its naval doctrine around commerce raiding. There is even a possibility that Jefferson Davis would bring back the camelry in the Confederate West. Does the South build an appreciable submarine fleet? Does it invest heavily in torpedo boats and shore artillery to discourage blockade? What happens to the Northern military? It’s easy to see new canals built on the Great Lakes and a race to lay down lake battleships. (Avalanche Press looks at the latter question in their inventive wargame, War Plan Red.)
Fifth, for reasons previously discussed, territorial expansion is crucial to the Southern project. This raises the question of how the Southern racial and political model would accommodate persons of Mexican and Indian heritage. Do the Five Civilized Tribes emerge as favored partners like the Druze in Israel, do they fill a more ambiguous position like that of the Basters in South West Africa, or are they pushed into open revolt? Presumably the South expands to at least Guaymas and Sonora, providing an outlet on the Pacific Ocean. With a bit of timeline tinkering, it is probably possible to preserve Walker’s Nicaragua. Would the British intervene in a Spanish-American War to force a Spanish hand-over to the Confederacy?
Some considerations.
First, to give the C.S. as much of a “shot” as possible in the post-war period, it is convenient to reduce the length and breadth of the war. Perhaps Confederate garrisons in Tennessee don’t give way as readily in 1862 when Ulysses Grant first comes knocking. Probably Lee wins convincingly at Antietam. Assume that the Trent Affair spirals out of control into a British intervention that ties down Federal troops on either coast, helping the Confederacy to make maximal territorial gains—in Kentucky, Missouri, Virginia, and the New Mexico Territory.
Second, the loss must be shocking to the North, sparking a period of politico-military self-mutilation. West Point is shuttered amidst criticism that it became an intellectual forcing-house for traitors. Dependence on the militia system to defend the long frontier with Canada and quash inevitable skirmishes in the Border States fosters a perverse attitude toward spending on a standing army, particularly because it is obvious that the South could not hope to mount a successful invasion. The South, in turn, grapples with the opposite effect: martial heroes go on to political success, founding dynasties that come to resemble stratocracies.
Third, the South seems to have lacked the taste for a strong central government. Even during the darkest days of the American Civil War in OTL, Southern governors held out on Richmond. While one could argue that that the exigency created by Union irredentism tamps down on some of these centrifugal tendencies, the South will probably struggle to implement essential improvements to roads, rails, and rivers. Think about the transformative impact of the Tennessee Valley Authority and whether such a project is likely to be embraced in an environment where two prior revolutions against central authority have been carried off successfully.
Fourth, the South’s interest in experimental weaponry will probably continue simply as a consequence of the David-versus-Goliath dynamic. Especially given the amount of ground to cover, the South would probably become an enthusiastic user of armored trains for internal defense, and possibly airships as well. (If I remember correctly, Arkansas was one of the few locations that provided access to natural helium at the turn of the nineteenth century.) Many alternate histories assume that the South would choose to direct its naval doctrine around commerce raiding. There is even a possibility that Jefferson Davis would bring back the camelry in the Confederate West. Does the South build an appreciable submarine fleet? Does it invest heavily in torpedo boats and shore artillery to discourage blockade? What happens to the Northern military? It’s easy to see new canals built on the Great Lakes and a race to lay down lake battleships. (Avalanche Press looks at the latter question in their inventive wargame, War Plan Red.)
Fifth, for reasons previously discussed, territorial expansion is crucial to the Southern project. This raises the question of how the Southern racial and political model would accommodate persons of Mexican and Indian heritage. Do the Five Civilized Tribes emerge as favored partners like the Druze in Israel, do they fill a more ambiguous position like that of the Basters in South West Africa, or are they pushed into open revolt? Presumably the South expands to at least Guaymas and Sonora, providing an outlet on the Pacific Ocean. With a bit of timeline tinkering, it is probably possible to preserve Walker’s Nicaragua. Would the British intervene in a Spanish-American War to force a Spanish hand-over to the Confederacy?
I think there were some small scale efforts at industrialization that while nowhere near matched that of the North or of Northwest and Central Europe, were ahead of the game in comparison with most other places in the world.
Now, the cost of keeping order and maintaining defense would be astronomical and would be a huge problem for the CSA.
They also are going to struggle in attracting immigrants until slavery is phased out (however that happens in this TL), and for a period afterwards as well.
The biggest threat to the Confederacy would be its currency, however. They would have immense monetary problems going forward, and unless some accommodation was made with the USA on the topic, its public finances would be a mess while its standard of living would drop enormously.
But I can't say I think they'd be doomed to economic disaster. It was far more trade friendly than the USA was at the time, for example, and could see commodity exports and textile imports buffer the economy. They also would when dealing with public expenditure only need to be considering the needs of its free population, and as a result, could drastically increase quality of life on that basis when the new century comes around. They wouldn't have to deal with the OTL freight rate discrimination against southern states that persisted long after Reconstruction ended, either. There is also the potential for pillaging in Latin America and the Caribbean.
The big question of course is how relations with the USA go. If it is one of unrelenting hostility than I am not sure they survive very long.
Now, the cost of keeping order and maintaining defense would be astronomical and would be a huge problem for the CSA.
They also are going to struggle in attracting immigrants until slavery is phased out (however that happens in this TL), and for a period afterwards as well.
The biggest threat to the Confederacy would be its currency, however. They would have immense monetary problems going forward, and unless some accommodation was made with the USA on the topic, its public finances would be a mess while its standard of living would drop enormously.
But I can't say I think they'd be doomed to economic disaster. It was far more trade friendly than the USA was at the time, for example, and could see commodity exports and textile imports buffer the economy. They also would when dealing with public expenditure only need to be considering the needs of its free population, and as a result, could drastically increase quality of life on that basis when the new century comes around. They wouldn't have to deal with the OTL freight rate discrimination against southern states that persisted long after Reconstruction ended, either. There is also the potential for pillaging in Latin America and the Caribbean.
The big question of course is how relations with the USA go. If it is one of unrelenting hostility than I am not sure they survive very long.
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The Confederacy already had problems enough with its state governors not listening to what the Richmond government had to say. I think there would be a heavy influence of military on politics but coups are probably out of the question if it was to remain a unified government.
That would be if we imagined the mixing was evenly and that we started at zero. There would still be a large group of slaves with little European admixture, but the minority which was majority European in admixture would be growing. Even in OTL the existence of White slaves was used as efficient propaganda tool by the abolitionists.
All the children here are former slaves.