marathag
Banned
Though like A-H, Switzerland was surrounded by other States that wanted their territory, and the Cantons though it better to act as one nation, than a dozen smaller independent ones that could be gobbled up with ease
Would Franz Ferdinand actually doom Austria Hungary had he survived to become emperor?
- Thread starter Ratsnrays
- Start date
That I think would be the best bet of any Kaiser looking to reform the empire. Say that things have to change, but everyone would be better remaining in the empire rather than letting it fall apart.
That is why the USGA plan was dropped, put too much faith in a sea full of enemies, that is why the hungarians were so pro empire, the empire give them more power against their enemies.
marathag
Banned
FF would have been more assertive as Emperor than Charles, but trying to do anything with a World War going on, would make that a difficult task.
But overall, the idea of Empire was more popular to those in A-H, than with the locals in the Russian Empire
The key is avoiding a general war, which was FF's goal since he had stated that a general war between AH & Tsarist Russia would cause both empires to fall, and guess what, he was posthumously right. Yes. FF was a bigoted reactionary, but bigoted reactionary does not mean stupid and indecisive. FF was no Nicky. FF's ascension in a time of peace would NOT have DOOMED A-H. It is hard to say exactly what plans for reforms would have emerged but I believe he was intelligent and assertive enough to make reasonable choices and see them through.
Though perhaps the best scenario for AH is this unlikely but not ASB chain of events:
FF is killed in by the English Dick Cheney in 1913, Karl becomes Thronefolger
Without Sarajevo peace, such as it is, is maintained and OTL WWI avoided.
FJ dies in 1916 as per OTL. AH is still ramshackle but intact.
Karl attempts to make reforms (IDK which) and gets assassinated for his efforts, say in November 1918.
Empire is still intact and their is a wave of loyalty for the child Emperor/King Otto.
Zita heads a regency council composed of major leaders from all nationalities.
Otto gains his majority and begins ruling, and OTL Otto von Habsburg was a brilliant man and would have been a fine ruler.
Though perhaps the best scenario for AH is this unlikely but not ASB chain of events:
FF is killed in by the English Dick Cheney in 1913, Karl becomes Thronefolger
Without Sarajevo peace, such as it is, is maintained and OTL WWI avoided.
FJ dies in 1916 as per OTL. AH is still ramshackle but intact.
Karl attempts to make reforms (IDK which) and gets assassinated for his efforts, say in November 1918.
Empire is still intact and their is a wave of loyalty for the child Emperor/King Otto.
Zita heads a regency council composed of major leaders from all nationalities.
Otto gains his majority and begins ruling, and OTL Otto von Habsburg was a brilliant man and would have been a fine ruler.
Why would FF dying in 1913 preclude someone else from being in Sarajevo and targeted by the Serbs in the summer of the following year?
I think the original plan might've been to kill Potiorek, which all things considered, wouldn't have been a great loss...
One wonders what becomes of FF's children who in OTL were excluded from the succession. Do they fade into historical obscurity, or might they have potential to be significant figures in some measure?
After the OTL assassination, I believe Kaiser Willy toyed with the idea of making his eldest Duke of Elsass-Lothringen, under a regency, within the German Empire... perhaps not very seriously.
In an ATL, there's any number of possibilities....
That's what I was thinking about. A-L with a Hohenburg monarchy within Germany...
marathag
Banned
Apis is gonna Apis with his Bosnian Mooks, after all.
But the Heir-Apparent other than FF would have had a lot better security detail.
Aphrodite
Banned
FF was killed by six Austrian citizens. They conducted part of their plot in Serbia but had no help from the Serbian government. Ultimately, the Austrian government was responsible for the conduct of it's own citizens on its own territory.
FF had powerful friends who were in genuine mourning, particularly the Kaiser. FJ took advantage of that to trick the Kaiser into war.
If someone else had been assassinated, the Kaiser never would have fallen into the trap
marathag
Banned
They may have been shackled to a corpse, but it was better than being alone in Central Europe with the French and Russians sharpening their knives.
They really don't have a choice but to support A-H in punishing Serbia
Aphrodite
Banned
Yeah they did. First would be to tell Austria to can the pretensions. Stop pretending to be the superpower and recognize that she needed to respect her neighbors.
Honoring her treaty commitments to Italy would be a nice place to start
marathag
Banned
So you replace A-H with Italy, who after getting what she wants, won't help against Russia or France, not that they would be of any use against them in a War, even if sided with Germany.
This is a true and interesting point and one that is under analyzed. I think the Magyars knew that divorce from Austria meant collapse of Hungary so yes they were pro Empire. So why would FF or anyone else interested in continuation of the Empire be anti-Magyar? Seems to make more sense to be pro-Magyar.
kham_coc
Banned
Apart from being trained by Serbian officers, armed from Serbian stocks, and the plan being concocted by the Serbian head of military intelligence.
Coulsdon Eagle
Monthly Donor
And the Serbian Prime Minister was aware - how much is still disputed - of a plot and IIRC (Clark's The Sleepwalkers) gave Habsburg officials rather opaque hints.