Would an Islamic Russia expand east?

[Bleh]

Hi all,

Lately I've been taking advantage of the copious amounts of time that unemployment offers to develop my fledgling map-making skills by mapping out some fun scenario ideas I've accumulated and written down over time. I just recently finished an Orthodox alt-Ottomans scenario that I posted on the map thread and now I'd like to do a bit of role reversal and map out what an Islamic Russian Empire might look like. I'd like the PoD to be with Vladimir the Great deciding to adopt Islam instead of Orthodox Christianity. Naturally, this leaves a lot of room open for butterflies, but let's assume the Mongols happen more or less as in OTL and an ascendant principality (possibly Moscow, possibly another) manages to unite the region. Would Russia still expand east? The more I think about it, the more I feel that their priority would be to seek federation with other Islamic polities against the Christians immediately to their west. Would this stymie Russian expansion at all?

All thoughts and comments on the matter are welcome.

 

[AltoRegnant]

I'd think so since the biggest reasons were
-Mongols were bloody scary
-religious infighting does happen so they'd want to prevent too much power falling to the turks
-RESOURCES

 

[Bleh]

I'd think so since the biggest reasons were
-Mongols were bloody scary
-religious infighting does happen so they'd want to prevent too much power falling to the turks
-RESOURCES

Option 1 is the biggest argument in favor imo. The Mongols were blood scary and it makes sense to conquer Sibir before another Steppe empire can wreck them, religion be damned. I'm still trying to figure out how to do the Turks and whether to make the Ottomans or whomever as powerful as OTL. I suspect an alt-Ottoman Empire and Moorish Iberia as in OTL combined with an Islamic Russia bearing down from the east would galvanize Christendom in Europe to an extent, leading to more support for crusades and such, which could have all sorts of impacts.

Resources is also a very good argument for expansion but I'm worried it wouldn't come into play until the 18th century, at which point the region might have become a little more developed and defensible, or fallen into the orbit of another central/eastern Asian power. The land isn't developed and Russia already has access to beautiful farmland in Ukraine. Of course, a later, more hard-fought conquest of Siberia could be an interesting angle to take as well.

 

[Nivek]

leading to more support for crusades and such, which could have all sorts of impact

That is a cliche, crusades were a mixed bag and they were pushed back to europe here...Poland might not be as lucky as OTL, the same austria...

 

[Atterdag]

If muslim Russia had the exact same development as otl Russia, then yes I think it'd expand just like otl Russia, but I don't see it as very likely.

 

[Bleh]

That is a cliche, crusades were a mixed bag and they were pushed back to europe here...Poland might not be as lucky as OTL, the same austria...

Is it? Crusades were for sure a mixed bag but they might play out a bit differently here if more rulers are paranoid about Islamic expansion or just a generally greater Islamic presence. Certainly so if Austria is feeling the heat.

 

[Nivek]

Is it? Crusades were for sure a mixed bag but they might play out a bit differently here if more rulers are paranoid about Islamic expansion or just a generally greater Islamic presence. Certainly so if Austria is feeling the heat.

It is. That is a cliche this place here, depeding the POD, even the mere crusaders could be butterfly away.

If muslim Russia had the exact same development as otl Russia, then yes I think it'd expand just like otl Russia, but I don't see it as very likely.

It would be a little different, the more Nordic Islamic Rus would start a 'integration and conquest' approach their turkic islamic counterparts(and direct conquest the non islamic one), slowly as they will face mongols minefield in the meantime but i can see the same expansion as russia as they've the easier path as china don't care

 

[Bleh]

It is. That is a cliche this place here, depeding the POD, even the mere crusaders could be butterfly away.

I'm aware of the Crusades being cliché but I'm using "crusades" a bit liberally here. Since the PoD is prior to the Crusades, I'm imagining a similar reaction from Christian polities that led to support for the Crusades OTL but they would naturally look dramatically different. I have a hard time imagining that there would be no reaction in Rome or Constantinople to Russia becoming Islamic.

 

[AltoRegnant]

Option 1 is the biggest argument in favor imo. The Mongols were blood scary and it makes sense to conquer Sibir before another Steppe empire can wreck them, religion be damned. I'm still trying to figure out how to do the Turks and whether to make the Ottomans or whomever as powerful as OTL. I suspect an alt-Ottoman Empire and Moorish Iberia as in OTL combined with an Islamic Russia bearing down from the east would galvanize Christendom in Europe to an extent, leading to more support for crusades and such, which could have all sorts of impacts.

Resources is also a very good argument for expansion but I'm worried it wouldn't come into play until the 18th century, at which point the region might have become a little more developed and defensible, or fallen into the orbit of another central/eastern Asian power. The land isn't developed and Russia already has access to beautiful farmland in Ukraine. Of course, a later, more hard-fought conquest of Siberia could be an interesting angle to take as well.

You make a good point about the galvanization of europe, but this Russian sultanate would be able to base reforms on the mighty janisarries,. while having a crazy population advantage. Also, good luck poland.

Actually, with a muslim russia, constantinople almost certainly falls sooner with more muslim powers able to assault eastern Europe. Does it count as mending the great schism if Orthodox just goes extinct over the millennium? Which might mean no protestantism because luther was fascinated by it otl.

Though with Muslims controlling every channel out of europe (depending on the reconquitsa succeeding or not of course) I fear the native Americas will suffer otl fate at best. OR the colonizers only care 'are you catholic and paying taxes' who knows

 

[Bleh]

You make a good point about the galvanization of europe, but this Russian sultanate would be able to base reforms on the mighty janisarries,. while having a crazy population advantage. Also, good luck poland.

Actually, with a muslim russia, constantinople almost certainly falls sooner with more muslim powers able to assault eastern Europe. Does it count as mending the great schism if Orthodox just goes extinct over the millennium? Which might mean no protestantism because luther was fascinated by it otl.

Though with Muslims controlling every channel out of europe (depending on the reconquitsa succeeding or not of course) I fear the native Americas will suffer otl fate at best. OR the colonizers only care 'are you catholic and paying taxes' who knows

That janissary idea is really interesting, I hadn't thought about that. And yes, I see Poland either going the way of Hungary's OTL fate to the Ottomans if they can't secure any larger anti-Russian alliance.

Orthodox just going extinct would be one possible way of going about things, but it has to do with the ramifications of two things that I'm not quite sure about just yet: first, would Russia being Islamic impact the extent of the Mongol conquests, and second, would the butterflies coming off an Islamic Russia change the likelihood of an alt-Ottoman empire rising in the first place? I'm not sure how certain a Turkish empire based out of Anatolia is in the events of world history but it always seemed to me like something of an unlikely empire that needed a lot of things to go right for it.

And yes, if Western Europe has a sort of "cornered animal" mentality when ships start crossing the Atlantic, it will certainly fall hardest on the indigenous Americans. Of course, there are roughly 500 years between the PoD and Columbus so who knows?

 

[Jürgen]

I have always seen a Muslim conversion of the Rus being limited by the forest, as pig farming increase in importance there.

So the main areas of Muslim Rus would be the temperate grassland, while the forest further north would likely see a large Pagan population surviving or converting to Christianity. If they convert to Christianity they will convert to Catholicism. So we likely see a split between Catholic Rus in Belarus and the Upper Volga, and Muslim Rus in Ukraine, the Lower Volga and Northern Caucasus. This split will grow in time as the Southern Rus adopt the Arabic alphabet and begin to adopt Arab, Persian and Turkish loanwords, while the Northern Rus use the Latin alphabet instead borrow from Latin, Germanic and maybe a little from the Finnish languages.

The Mongol invasion will hit the southern Rus harder, but in the other hand they could end up making up the bulk of the population in the alt. Golden Horde population and expand into Central Asia and Siberia as the peasantry under such a state. The alt. Golden Horde may end up a Turkish-Mongolian aristocracy ruling over a mostly Muslim East Slavic farmers.

The Northern Rus together with Balts will likely end up being seen as a Nordic people, a term which will likely be far less synonymous with Scandinavians. Cultural the Northern Rus and the Balts will likely grow together with the Scandinavian peninsula, with royal intermarriages and political unions. The Northern Rus will push East into the great Taiga.

 

[alexmilman]

It is. That is a cliche this place here, depeding the POD, even the mere crusaders could be butterfly away.


It would be a little different, the more Nordic Islamic Rus would start a 'integration and conquest' approach their turkic islamic counterparts(and direct conquest the non islamic one), slowly as they will face mongols minefield in the meantime but i can see the same expansion as russia as they've the easier path as china don't care

I’m not sure how exactly “mongols minefield” has anything to do with the subject. To start with, by the time the exosnsion of the Russian state started (reign of Ivan III) the GH was Muslim, in conflict with the Crimean Khanate and reasonably weak. Not to mention that we are talking about the Tatars, not Mongols. If anything Russian conquest of the post GH Tatar states on Volga (reign of Ivan IV) would be easier if Tsardom is Muslim because the religious aspect of the struggle is absent. The same goes for the OTL conquests in Asia. Khanate of Siberia had multi-ethnic and multi-religious population and the later conquests in the Central Asia could be easier without the religious factor (an assumption that the Muslim states are not going to fight each other is just as realistic as the similar assumption about the Christian states). For the most of Siberia/Far East there would be no difference because the natives were predominantly neither Christians nor Muslims.

There may be a difference in the Caucasus: in OTL conquest was started by the calls for help from the Orthodox Georgians so the triggering event may be absent. However, if the expansion is going in that direction, things could be slightly better: while neither Georgians nor the Armenians amounted for too much as a helpful military factor, the bellicose tribes of the Northern Caucasus (with whom in OTL Russia had most of the problems) would be at least somewhat less hostile.